Summer Prediction: Cs sign Biyombo to two year, approx $12mil deal

[LarBrd33]

Biyombo was up and down throughout last season. Bobcats were unhappy with his inconsistent play. He still hasn't managed to put together a season from start to finish. He shows real talent (defensively speaking) for a period of time and then falls off. Hasn't shown himself capable of sustaining those good periods (yet!).

Biyombo only got good minutes late in the season because their other bigs (Big Al, C.Zeller) were injured - out or playing through injuries. Biyombo wasn't playing well at that point. He hadn't played well since he had gotten injured in January. Same reason Vonleh got minutes late in the season. Not because Vonleh earned them or was playing well. They were just short-handed and forced to play him. If not for injuries to other players, Biyombo would have been playing 10-12 minutes a night.

Best stretch of the entire season had Biyombo and MKG getting big minutes in the starting lineup.

Biyombo played really well earlier in the season.

But he did not finish the season well.

He is still very inconsistent / undependable over the course of 82 games.

FWIW, I don't disagree with many of the points being brought up here.  He's a poor offensive player.  He hasn't officially broken out yet.  He's possibly someone who will fail.   But of course, if any of these things weren't true, there's no chance in hell Boston would be able to steal him this summer.  He's a restricted free agent.   The 4 years of underwhelming play are why we might be able to steal him.   Still, the Hornets forums seem convinced that Biyombo did enough this year to make the Hornets match any reasonable offer as he clearly has value to them as (at worst) a great defensive rim protector off the bench.

All the negatives being brought up are PRECISELY why we might be able to get him for 25-40 mil this summer.

[D.o.s.]

I maintain that the phrase "in a meaningful way" has relevance to the point, which is why I wrote it.

I will also maintain that Biyombo's defense is not worth his non-offense (something you continue to ignore, for whatever reason), that we already had a better rim protector in Brandon Wright who did not contribute meaningfully on that end while he was with our team, and that the point of getting a four-year "veteran" -- in the sense that he's had plenty of opportunities to get on the floor in the NBA if he wasn't crap at hoops -- rim protector who is not very good at basketball (and he isn't) is not worth the time, effort, or energy of the Boston front office.

The appeal of a new shiny toy and phrase (Rim Protector is a great one) is understandable. Bismack Biyombo is not that new toy. Bismack Biyombo is the car that you buy sight unseen and hope to drive once a year after a long period of fixing it up. Even with the salary cap set to explode, he is not worth the high end of a $25-$40 (I assume that is $5-$10 deal. I can get down with $5.)

[TheFlex]

Signing Biyombo to $6m seems fair. He's only 22 and the cap is set to rise dramatically over the next few years. But as many others have said, the only way his defensive abilities will be able to positively impact a team's W/L record is if he develops at least replacement player-level offensive ability. His pedestrian skills (and that's being kind) on the offensive end could very well put a strain on Brad's system, especially with a couple of non-shooters on the floor (Smart, ET, even Sully to an extent).

edit: How overrated have "rim protectors" become, really? Especially guys that are only able to stay on the floor for 5-10 minutes because they're so bad at just about anything else? Boston was atrocious defensively in the paint but still posted above-average defensive stats because they have a multitude of very good wing defenders. If we have Smart, Bradley and Crowder -- plus perhaps adding a guy like Stanley Johnson -- how necessary is it really to have a "rim protector" if he's not a guy like DeAndre Jordan, Marc Gasol, or even Robin Lopez who can stay on the floor for a significantly effective amount of time?

[greece66]

Just calling it now. I have it on good authority the Cs org feels they can work him into a better, more rounded player, and therefore leverage his shotblocking ability more consistently. If they strike out on a marquee big man early in FA, look for this to happen.

That would be great. Biyombo is a player who could contribute immediately to our D an rebounding and the price is good.

[LarBrd33]

I maintain that the phrase "in a meaningful way" has relevance to the point, which is why I wrote it.

I will also maintain that Biyombo's defense is not worth his non-offense (something you continue to ignore, for whatever reason)

Just a difference in opinion, man.  TP.   I was on board with getting Asik, too.   With the right surrounding players, a defensive anchor manning the middle can have an overwhelming impact.  It's I why continued to see Kevin Garnett as the most valuable player on the Celtics well past his prime (and while others were inaccurately throwing the label at Rondo).   KG's defensive impact still made all the difference.   Andrew Bogut doesn't get enough credit for the Warriors success.  Tyson Chandler didn't get enough credit for the Dallas championship.   Adding Biyombo to this 32-46 win team isn't going to springboard it into contention.  Obviously not.   We have gaping holes everywhere on this roster.   But as long as we have competent scorers on the team, we can afford a Biyombo or Asik.

Biyombo is in no way my first choice this summer and it's doubtful he is for the Celtics either.  Clearly, everyone wants us to land a bigger fish like Aldridge, Gasol, Love, etc.  Biyombo is very clearly plan B if we fail to land a big name center.    I hope we don't have to utilize Plan B.   I sure as heck don't want to see what Plan C is if we fail to land a guy like Biyombo.  Could get ugly

[D.o.s.]

Yeah TP to you too -- I'm distracted + underdeadline sorry If I'm coming off as snippish (not that that's an excuse but apologies if so).

[LooseCannon]

And it also discounts the rest of the roster in games Biyombo played large minutes.   Al Jefferson is undeniably the best player on the Hornets.  Biyombo started in games Jefferson sat.  It speaks volumes that the team played better with Biyombo playing minutes instead of their best player.  And also previously mentioned, the team was hot garbage (6-21) in games that MKG was out with injury... which happened to overlap with the last 11 games of the season in which Biyombo started for injured Al Jefferson.

Maybe the evidence suggests that Al Jefferson isn't as good as you think he is.

[hpantazo]

And it also discounts the rest of the roster in games Biyombo played large minutes.   Al Jefferson is undeniably the best player on the Hornets.  Biyombo started in games Jefferson sat.  It speaks volumes that the team played better with Biyombo playing minutes instead of their best player.  And also previously mentioned, the team was hot garbage (6-21) in games that MKG was out with injury... which happened to overlap with the last 11 games of the season in which Biyombo started for injured Al Jefferson.

Maybe the evidence suggests that Al Jefferson isn't as good as you think he is.

Bingo. When has the now 30 year old Al Jefferson ever lead a team to the playoffs? He is a huge negative on defense, and needs to play at a slow pace to be effective on offense.

[crimson_stallion]

Just a difference in opinion, man.  TP.   I was on board with getting Asik, too.   With the right surrounding players, a defensive anchor manning the middle can have an overwhelming impact.  It's I why continued to see Kevin Garnett as the most valuable player on the Celtics well past his prime (and while others were inaccurately throwing the label at Rondo).   KG's defensive impact still made all the difference.   Andrew Bogut doesn't get enough credit for the Warriors success.  Tyson Chandler didn't get enough credit for the Dallas championship.   Adding Biyombo to this 32-46 win team isn't going to springboard it into contention.  Obviously not.   We have gaping holes everywhere on this roster.   But as long as we have competent scorers on the team, we can afford a Biyombo or Asik.

While I do agree with you overall, I don't really agree with the KG comparison.  Sure KG had a huge defensive impact for Boston through those years, but even in his later Celtics years he was never a one dimensional player. 

Even late in his Cetlics career, KG was still an excellent rebounder, (he averaged something like 13 RPG in his final playoff run with Boston), an elite passer for a big, and one of the best shooters in the entire league from midrange.  He was also an >80% FT shooter through almost his entire tenure with Boston.

While KG was no longer dominant offensively in his later years, and may not have even been a 'plus' offensive player in some of those seasons, he was always good enough on that end of the floor to keep the defense honest.  No defense ever dared to leave KG open, not even in his last year as a Celtic.

Not really the case with Biyombo - he's really no threat offensively, and the defense can for the most part completely ignore his presence. 

Id still like to see him here though - in a bench role.  Role players like Biyombo can be very effective on the bench when you're going up against opposing teams second units, and he's young enough that he still has a tone of upside. That along makes it worthwhile.

[hpantazo]

bfm, you're cutting and pasting D.o.s. incorrect statements from a different thread.  I've already put him in his place numerous times.  That dude doesn't need a cross-thread hype man.  He's brought up some flawed points that I've already addressed before he even brought up the flawed points.  Give it a rest, Flavor Flav.  I'm trying to move on from Biyombo in this thread.  If you have something of value to add, add it in the Biyombo thread that sspence started.

I fail to see the points in this thread where LB33 has put D.o.s. "in his place numerous times" Am I missing something here?

[LarBrd33]

And it also discounts the rest of the roster in games Biyombo played large minutes.   Al Jefferson is undeniably the best player on the Hornets.  Biyombo started in games Jefferson sat.  It speaks volumes that the team played better with Biyombo playing minutes instead of their best player.  And also previously mentioned, the team was hot garbage (6-21) in games that MKG was out with injury... which happened to overlap with the last 11 games of the season in which Biyombo started for injured Al Jefferson.

Maybe the evidence suggests that Al Jefferson isn't as good as you think he is.

Bingo. When has the now 30 year old Al Jefferson ever lead a team to the playoffs?

He lead a team to the playoffs in 2012 and 2014... he's 0-8 in playoff games.

[colincb]

Which Players Are the Next Free-Agent Steals?
April 7, 2015
by Zach Lowe

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-groupon-games-which-players-are-the-next-free-agent-steals/

...
I’m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA’s least competent offensive player. [Lowe goes on to say why he's worth a shot in FA nonetheless before getting to what he'd cost] ...

Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league’s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don’t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won’t get that kind of money on the open market.

You could probably get him a lot cheaper than what the resident CBlog GMs have deemed his worth, or get similar production from Joel Anthony who's a free agent this summer, made under $4 MM last year, and likely get less going forward.  Biyombo got marginally better after a year of tutelage under Patrick Ewing, but he's dead last in the NBA in assist%, shot under 10% from past 10 feet (how is that even possible?), and turns the ball over at a high rate too (396th best). Overall he has a net negative +/- (Box and Real +/-) because he's an offensive liability and he was a lot worse his first 3 seasons.

[LarBrd33]

Which Players Are the Next Free-Agent Steals?
April 7, 2015
by Zach Lowe

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-groupon-games-which-players-are-the-next-free-agent-steals/

...
I’m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA’s least competent offensive player. [Lowe goes on to say why he's worth a shot in FA nonetheless before getting to what he'd cost] ...

Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league’s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don’t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won’t get that kind of money on the open market.

You could probably get him a lot cheaper than what the resident CBlog GMs have deemed his worth, or get similar production from Joel Anthony who's a free agent this summer, made under $4 MM last year, and likely get less going forward.  Biyombo got marginally better after a year of tutelage under Patrick Ewing, but he's dead last in the NBA in assist%, shot under 10% from past 10 feet (how is that even possible?), and turns the ball over at a high rate too (396th best). Overall he has a net negative +/- (Box and Real +/-) because he's an offensive liability and he was a lot worse his first 3 seasons.

Great find.  Zach Lowe is one of the finest basketball minds in all of media.  Let's just show all of his Biyombo comments unedited.  Seem relevant:

Bismack Biyombo (Restricted Free Agent)

I?m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA?s least competent offensive player. He has one move: Catch the ball near the rim and dunk.

If he catches the ball too far from the basket, or if a help defender gets in his way, he is helpless:





Look at the floor an instant before Biyombo launches that hopeless hook: Three teammates are wide open beyond the arc, raising their arms, begging for the ball.

This is sadly indicative of what is perhaps Biyombo?s most damaging limitation: He cannot, or will not, pass. He has 19 assists combined over the last two seasons. He has assisted on fewer than 2 percent of Charlotte?s baskets while on the floor in each of those two seasons, putting him in rare historic territory. Being a finisher first is fine, especially for a range-less big man with hops, but even those types need at least basic NBA passes in their bag for moments when help converges.

Mastering the simple kickout dish could also help Biyombo trim his ugly turnover rate, since he wouldn?t stumble into charging calls, traveling violations, and fumbles.

If a team can teach Biyombo to read the floor just a bit better, he could become something in the NBA. He has already improved in small ways. He doesn?t flat-out drop the ball as much as he used to; his hands have softened from granite to limestone. He is an explosive leaper in traffic and faster than almost every center in the league. He sucks in extra defensive attention on his rolls to the rim, opening up shots for teammates dotting the perimeter:



Charlotte sports the league?s saddest rotation of outside shooters, and it?s tempting to imagine how Biyombo might fare for a team that could surround him with more shooting. The Hornets have scored a respectable 102.3 points per 100 possessions when Biyombo shares the floor with Marvin Williams, the only 3-point shooter in Charlotte?s frontcourt rotation, and collapsed whenever Biyombo plays alongside any other big, per NBA.com.

He has hit a career-best 58 percent from the line this season, and he?s a creative screen setter who toggles between laying the wood and darting into the lane before really setting a pick.

Biyombo is a proven rim protector on defense, with the wheels to defend stretchier big men on the perimeter ? a rare combination:



Opponents hit just 45.6 percent of shots at the basket this season with Biyombo nearby, a stingy mark, and that number was even lower last season ? 39.1 percent, the best mark in the league among rotation bigs, per Spor**** data.

Biyombo can get a little out of control defending in space, and he?s never going to have a post game or any sort of range. Opponents are free to play small against the Hornets with Biyombo on the floor, since a wing player can guard him without worrying about Biyombo posting up. That?s a real liability, and one that could become more glaring as smart coaches go small at every chance.

But Biyombo is a force at the basket, and he could develop into a threatening pick-and-roll dunk machine. Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league?s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don?t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won?t get that kind of money on the open market.

I respect Lowe's opinion over pretty much every basketball writer out there.   Fair points all around.

[hpantazo]

Which Players Are the Next Free-Agent Steals?
April 7, 2015
by Zach Lowe

http://grantland.com/the-triangle/the-nba-groupon-games-which-players-are-the-next-free-agent-steals/

...
I’m leading a movement to relocate the last starving residents of Waiters Island onto the Biyombo Archipelago. Biyombo has earned his punch-line reputation as perhaps the NBA’s least competent offensive player. [Lowe goes on to say why he's worth a shot in FA nonetheless before getting to what he'd cost] ...

Nabbing Biyombo at $3 million or $4 million per season might turn into a bargain, especially after the cap leaps in 2016-17. That kind of salary is already a team-friendly price for a backup big who can start in a pinch, provided the right kind of personnel is around him.

Even the most plugged-in execs are cautious in projecting contracts for this summer, the last one before the biggest cap jump in league history. Teams and agents will negotiate in a weird netherworld between the projected cap for next season, around $68 million, and the potential $90 million cap coming in 2016-17. The league’s average salary, and perhaps the midlevel exception,2 could jump to $7.5 million or so in just two years. Teams want good contracts now, but agents don’t want to sign contracts that will look silly in 2017.

Could you get Biyombo at $4 million? Most people think so, but no one is sure. The Hornets have to tender Biyombo a one-year, $5.2 million qualifying offer to retain matching rights, and executives are nearly unanimous that Biyombo won’t get that kind of money on the open market.

You could probably get him a lot cheaper than what the resident CBlog GMs have deemed his worth, or get similar production from Joel Anthony who's a free agent this summer, made under $4 MM last year, and likely get less going forward.  Biyombo got marginally better after a year of tutelage under Patrick Ewing, but he's dead last in the NBA in assist%, shot under 10% from past 10 feet (how is that even possible?), and turns the ball over at a high rate too (396th best). Overall he has a net negative +/- (Box and Real +/-) because he's an offensive liability and he was a lot worse his first 3 seasons.

[colincb]

My main point was people were throwing around $10MM amounts of money for a guy whose offense is so bad, you can't start him.