Closer to Contending: Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, Philly?

[LarBrd33]

I figure those 4 teams are all "prestige" NBA franchises.  They are all in the dumps right now.   I was curious who was the closest to truly competing. 

On the surface level, you'd see Boston with the best record and equate that to mean they are the closest to competing.  That's pretty inaccurate, imo.  We are still a bottom 10 team right now.  Nobody would seriously confuse us for contenders.  To truly predict who is the closest to competing, you need to weigh a lot more variables. 

In simplistic terms, the general formula to real success in the NBA is landing 2-3 all-star talent.  More than any other sport, a single superstar player can raise a team from bottom-feeder to contender.  Merely need to look at the Cavs pre-post-pre-post LeBron to see this.  Merely need to look at the Heat pre-post-pre LeBron to see this.   An elite offensive player and an elite big (preferably with elite defense) seem to be the two most crucial cogs to contention.  Role players are easily replaceable. 

So when measuring future success, you should be looking at current star players (obviously), elite prospects (players who stand a reasonable chance of becoming stars), cap situation (and ability to attract free agents), upcoming draft picks (top 5 being the most valuable), and trade assets.

So let's look at them.

Boston Celtics
Current Status -  Bottom 10 team.  Have had a nice run recently.  Well coached.  Could end up in playoffs as sub-500 also-ran. 
Current Stars - None
Cap Situation - About 23 mil in cap space not including Crowder, Bass, Jerebko and our draft picks.  Might not even have enough cap space to sign a max contract player if we retain some of those guys.
Elite Prospects - I'm only including Smart to avoid backlash.  He might be a defensive role player long-term.
Draft Picks - Lots of mid-to-late 1sts.  Should end up picking 10-16 this year. 
Advantage - Lots of middling pieces like Sully, Oly, Thomas, 1sts that can be used in trade packages.  Trade exceptions that can be used instead of cap space.  Great system, coach, management.  Our most likely path to an all-star is the trade market.
Disadvantage - Possibly no worthwhile building blocks on team.  Boston an unproven free agent destination.  Current assets have questionable worth.  We are at the whims of the trade market.

Lakers
Current Status - Bottom 4 team.  Awful.
Current Stars - Kobe, maybe.
Cap Situation - About 30 mil in cap space this summer if they let Jordan Hill walk
Elite Prospects - Depends how you feel about Julius Randle
Draft Picks - Should have a top 4 this year.  They owe a future 1st to Philly (Top 5 protected this year, Top 3 protected next year).   Have a late 1st this year from Houston.
Advantage - Los Angeles will always be at the top of any free agent list.  Kevin Love, for example, thought to be a lock to join them if he bails on Cavs.
Disadvantage - Terrible management.  Kobe not a lure.     

Knicks
Current Status - Worse record in the league
Current Stars - Healthy Melo remains elite-tier talent.  Essentially even productivity to Paul Pierce pre-Big 3.
Cap Situation - About 30 mil in cap space
Elite Prospects - None unless you count Hardaway Jr... which I don't.
Draft Picks - Projected #1 pick this year.  No pick in 2016.
Advantage - New York will always be at the top of any free agent list.  They already have a star.  They could end up with a star (Okafor) through this draft.  Phil Jackson is a draw.
Disadvantage - Ownership, I guess... but Phil Jackson negates some of the stink.

Philly
Current Status - Blatant Tank Job.  Bottom 2 record.
Current Stars - None
Cap Situation - Roughly 40 mil in cap space
Elite Prospects - Embiid considered by many to be a better prospect than anyone in the 2013/14/15 draft classes.  Nerlens Noel should be a ROY candidate.  Some feel Dario Saric is a future star. 
Draft Picks - #2 projected pick this year.  Get Lakers pick if it falls outside Top 5.  Some other mid-1sts (Miami top 10 protected, Thunder top 18 protected)
Advantage - Taking the Thunder route, they might already have star building blocks in place (Embiid, Noel, Saric, whoever they draft this year).   That could mean natural development into a contender 2-3 years from now.   
Disadvantage - Probably not a free agent destination, but that could change if a couple of their star prospects reach their potential quickly.


So who do you think is closest to contention?   At gunpoint, I'm going with the Knicks.   Melo is already in place, they will most likely end up with a star prospect through this draft, Jackson and New York is a draw and they have cap space to sign a couple elite-level players.   Philly has the highest ceiling.  Lakers are always a destination.  Boston is the best managed and has the most middling assets, but I think they are the furthest away from acquiring a star and thus might be furthest from contending.

Thoughts?

[mahcus smaht]

I figure those 4 teams are all "prestige" NBA franchises.  They are all in the dumps right now.   I was curious who was the closest to truly competing. 

On the surface level, you'd see Boston with the best record and equate that to mean they are the closest to competing.  That's pretty inaccurate, imo.  We are still a bottom 10 team right now.  Nobody would seriously confuse us for contenders.  To truly predict who is the closest to competing, you need to weigh a lot more variables. 

In simplistic terms, the general formula to real success in the NBA is landing 2-3 all-star talent.  More than any other sport, a single superstar player can raise a team from bottom-feeder to contender.  Merely need to look at the Cavs pre-post-pre-post LeBron to see this.  Merely need to look at the Heat pre-post-pre LeBron to see this.   An elite offensive player and an elite big (preferably with elite defense) seem to be the two most crucial cogs to contention.  Role players are easily replaceable. 

So when measuring future success, you should be looking at current star players (obviously), elite prospects (players who stand a reasonable chance of becoming stars), cap situation (and ability to attract free agents), upcoming draft picks (top 5 being the most valuable), and trade assets.

So let's look at them.

Boston Celtics
Current Status -  Bottom 10 team.  Have had a nice run recently.  Well coached.  Could end up in playoffs as sub-500 also-ran. 
Current Stars - None
Cap Situation - About 23 mil in cap space not including Crowder, Bass, Jerebko and our draft picks.  Might not even have enough cap space to sign a max contract player if we retain some of those guys.
Elite Prospects - I'm only including Smart to avoid backlash.  He might be a defensive role player long-term.
Draft Picks - Lots of mid-to-late 1sts.  Should end up picking 10-16 this year. 
Advantage - Lots of middling pieces like Sully, Oly, Thomas, 1sts that can be used in trade packages.  Trade exceptions that can be used instead of cap space.  Great system, coach, management.  Our most likely path to an all-star is the trade market.
Disadvantage - Possibly no worthwhile building blocks on team.  Boston an unproven free agent destination.  Current assets have questionable worth.  We are at the whims of the trade market.

Lakers
Current Status - Bottom 4 team.  Awful.
Current Stars - Kobe, maybe.
Cap Situation - About 30 mil in cap space this summer if they let Jordan Hill walk
Elite Prospects - Depends how you feel about Julius Randle
Draft Picks - Should have a top 4 this year.  They owe a future 1st to Philly (Top 5 protected this year, Top 3 protected next year).   Have a late 1st this year from Houston.
Advantage - Los Angeles will always be at the top of any free agent list.  Kevin Love, for example, thought to be a lock to join them if he bails on Cavs.
Disadvantage - Terrible management.  Kobe not a lure.     

Knicks
Current Status - Worse record in the league
Current Stars - Healthy Melo remains elite-tier talent.  Essentially even productivity to Paul Pierce pre-Big 3.
Cap Situation - About 30 mil in cap space
Elite Prospects - None unless you count Hardaway Jr... which I don't.
Draft Picks - Projected #1 pick this year.  No pick in 2016.
Advantage - New York will always be at the top of any free agent list.  They already have a star.  They could end up with a star (Okafor) through this draft.  Phil Jackson is a draw.
Disadvantage - Ownership, I guess... but Phil Jackson negates some of the stink.

Philly
Current Status - Blatant Tank Job.  Bottom 2 record.
Current Stars - None
Cap Situation - Roughly 40 mil in cap space
Elite Prospects - Embiid considered by many to be a better prospect than anyone in the 2013/14/15 draft classes.  Nerlens Noel should be a ROY candidate.  Some feel Dario Saric is a future star. 
Draft Picks - #2 projected pick this year.  Get Lakers pick if it falls outside Top 5.  Some other mid-1sts (Miami top 10 protected, Thunder top 18 protected)
Advantage - Taking the Thunder route, they might already have star building blocks in place (Embiid, Noel, Saric, whoever they draft this year).   That could mean natural development into a contender 2-3 years from now.   
Disadvantage - Probably not a free agent destination, but that could change if a couple of their star prospects reach their potential quickly.


So who do you think is closest to contention?   At gunpoint, I'm going with the Knicks.   Melo is already in place, they will most likely end up with a star prospect through this draft, Jackson and New York is a draw and they have cap space to sign a couple elite-level players.   Philly has the highest ceiling.  Lakers are always a destination.  Boston is the best managed and has the most middling assets, but I think they are the furthest away from acquiring a star and thus might be furthest from contending.

Thoughts?

Im glad you brought this up as it is a great discussion.

I think the lakers are in the worst position, followed by the Knicks but due to the location of their arenas neither of these teams will ever be far from contention as all they need to do is clear the necessary space and they become a huge draw for FAs. Boston and Philly dont have this advantage but have much better basketball situations. I think the C's have done a great job amassing assets but they as you noted dont have the star guy. The test will be, can they find him with their huge pile of non star assets. If a guy like Cousins comes to boston our infrastructure (I like to call our complement of solid roll players, great coach, defensive midset, grittiness ) makes us immediate contenders. If we never find that star, then you are right we may be a long way from true contention. That being said, I trust Danny. For Philly, they have star talent and great assets, but I worry about their infrastructure.

Really it could go anywhere. Based on the amount of unspent cap space and draft picks left. If any GM strikes out on a couple FAs or picks then that team is screwed. If any team hits the jackpot through those same avenues, then that will be the team that is first to reach contention.

Lakers
Knicks
Sixers
Celtics

for what its worth I see Boston and Philly both really reaching contention during the 16-17 season. I dont see the Knicks reaching true contention within the next decade but I think they will peak in that same season. For the Lakers I would predict they return to relevance in the 16-17 season but they dont see contention till either 17-18 or 18-19.

Note: Ill probably completely change my mind in the next two hours so be prepared for that.

[JHTruth]

Celtics are probably a little farther away than the Lakers just because the Lakers always seem to get a serious look from FAs, even when they just suck like right now. They will never trade Kobe although could probably get some serious assets for his cap number next year.

Celtics have some things going for them, but they are frustrated in their attempts to get the elusive "star". Last summer Wyc and go went for "fireworks" and could barely produce a pop-bottle rocket. Looks like more seasons of mid-first round picks and praying one them is a home run. Until Boston proves they can attract FAs, they will continue to be mediocre.

Knicks are a FA dest with Phil Jackson, they will have a top 3 pick most likely this year, and have Melo. They will go big in 2016 and probably will land at least one major piece.

Philly is much like Boston as a FA dest, but has some excellent young pieces. As an organization, they are horrible, but are good enough at tanking to get some talent.

I'd say in order of contention in the future 1) Knicks 2) Philly 3) Lakers 4) Boston

[D.o.s.]

You have to give the nod to all of the Eastern Conference teams first.

[JohnBoy65]

I've been saying all year I think the Knicks are in a GREAT place. They've got Melo, cap space, and a top 3 pick (most likely). Not to mention Phil Jackson running the helm, NYC gives them an automatic advantage on FAs.

Right now NY is really really bad, but think of this. They can sign a max FA, trade their pick for another star, and when the cap goes up next year quite possibly sign 1-2 more stars. I think the Knicks are real close to contention.

[celticsclay]

You spend your time typing up this the day after a really nice win over one of the best teams in the NBA. Well played.

Also your constant labeling of smart as a defensive role player is pathetic. The guy couldn't legally by a beer until a week ago! He is coming off a rookie of the month award, is already showing really good defense, and you cant give him a full season to decide if he could turn into a capable offensive player or improve his shot? Your constant downplaying of Celtics assets and trumping up others teams is pretty frustrating.

[saltlover]

Is it fun calling a team that's 15-13 over it's last 28 games (which is picked since its when Jeff Green was traded) a sub .500 team?  That's over 1/3 of the season, and it's after a point when most of the major trades had been made.

Also, the Celtics have $22 million cap room including picks and Crowder (but not Bass or Jerebko).  This is unquestionably enough to sign a star outright this summer.  If they give up a decent first, they can move Wallace to clear up enough room to sign two stars, depending who they are.  The Sixers just got a top-18 protected first to release Javale McGee, who makes more than Wallace, so the cost isn't steep if the stars present themselves.

Anyway, keep on being disappointed. Rondo's gone, we still don't stink, and you're still upset.  Oh well.

[LooseCannon]

The Knicks are at the bottom so long as Carmelo Anthony is on the roster.  A team built around him is likely to plateau at a series of first-round exits. 

The Celtics are the closest if you believe it is possible to build a legitimate contender with an ensemble approach that lacks a potential MVP candidate.  I believe it is possible.  I think Danny Ainge isn't afraid to take that path.

[jpotter33]

I think your analysis is a bit biased towards Philly. Saric hasn't played a minute of NBA ball, but you label him in the elite prospect category without hesitation while saying Smart might end up purely being a defensive role player. That's definitely unfair.

I agree with you that Embiid has the highest ceiling of all the prospects, but there's a very good chance he's the next Greg Oden. He's had two very scary injuries before even being drafted, and he recently reinjured himself, which doesn't look good for his durability. Furthermore, his ceiling is a long ways off. He's only played bball a couple of years, and though having a high ceiling, it will take a good system to get him there. No guarantee he can reach his peak in Philly in that horrible, losing atmosphere, or even reach it at all in any system.

As for Noel, I haven't seen anything from him that makes me think he's a better prospect than Smart. Both are defensive-oriented players with limited offensive games as of right now. However, Smart has shown he can hit shots, where I'm not sure what Noel has really shown on the offensive end. Both are special on the defensive end, but I don't think you can categorically say Noel is a better prospect than Smart. Furthermore, there's no way in hell him and Embiid can coexist in the frontcourt together. No way. So one of them will be misused and won't reach their peak.

As for the actual rankings, I'm not sure you can really rank them as of now. Of course LA and NY have the better chances of luring free agents, but their management, coaches, rosters, and teams are so horrible right now that there's no guarantee that they can do it. Even if they do get stars, do you trust a team ran by the young Fisher, who hasn't proved that he can even coach at this level, to be in contention?

My guess is it's a wash between Philly and Boston, but there's no real way to guess how they'll fare with free agents due to several factors. First, I don't think anyone is going to Philly for a couple years due to their reputation around the league as tankers. Well, a younger player wanting paid might go there, but I don't see them getting a couple of stars to sign there with their current reputation. Second, we don't know how Boston will fare with free agents this offseason, because we're basically in uncharted waters at this point with actually having cap space.

[RAAAAAAAANDY]

Thru the draft - Philly

Via trade - Boston

Via FA - NY

I think the Lakers' goose is cooked. They're terrible, owe Philly a pick, Kobe's contract limits FA options money wise and Kobe is a non-starter to any prospective FA who wants to actually shoot the ball occasionally.

I still believe LAL and NYK have an ugly path if the CBA negotiations don't make drastic changes for them. Terrible ownership and I don't trust their front offices.

[indeedproceed]

Farthest from contending: Philly

Closest from contending: Whomever cuts bait and mortgages the future for a star

[colincb]

The Celtics.

BTW, how's your 15 win prediction for us working out?

[tazzmaniac]

I think your analysis is a bit biased towards Philly. Saric hasn't played a minute of NBA ball, but you label him in the elite prospect category without hesitation while saying Smart might end up purely being a defensive role player. That's definitely unfair.

I agree with you that Embiid has the highest ceiling of all the prospects, but there's a very good chance he's the next Greg Oden. He's had two very scary injuries before even being drafted, and he recently reinjured himself, which doesn't look good for his durability. Furthermore, his ceiling is a long ways off. He's only played bball a couple of years, and though having a high ceiling, it will take a good system to get him there. No guarantee he can reach his peak in Philly in that horrible, losing atmosphere, or even reach it at all in any system.

As for Noel, I haven't seen anything from him that makes me think he's a better prospect than Smart. Both are defensive-oriented players with limited offensive games as of right now. However, Smart has shown he can hit shots, where I'm not sure what Noel has really shown on the offensive end. Both are special on the defensive end, but I don't think you can categorically say Noel is a better prospect than Smart. Furthermore, there's no way in hell him and Embiid can coexist in the frontcourt together. No way. So one of them will be misused and won't reach their peak.

As for the actual rankings, I'm not sure you can really rank them as of now. Of course LA and NY have the better chances of luring free agents, but their management, coaches, rosters, and teams are so horrible right now that there's no guarantee that they can do it. Even if they do get stars, do you trust a team ran by the young Fisher, who hasn't proved that he can even coach at this level, to be in contention?

My guess is it's a wash between Philly and Boston, but there's no real way to guess how they'll fare with free agents due to several factors. First, I don't think anyone is going to Philly for a couple years due to their reputation around the league as tankers. Well, a younger player wanting paid might go there, but I don't see them getting a couple of stars to sign there with their current reputation. Second, we don't know how Boston will fare with free agents this offseason, because we're basically in uncharted waters at this point with actually having cap space.

Embiid's soreness doesn't equate to him reinjuring himself.  His doctor just gave him the go ahead to practice more.  The Sixers can have Embiid for at least 4 more years.  Any rookie worth a darn is going to be a few years from their ceiling.  We better hope that Smart's ceiling is a few years away or else he will top out as a defensive role player.  I'd put Smart and Noel at the same level but I think Noel has progressed more this season. 

I don't know why you're so definitive the Embiid and Noel can't coexist together.  Defensively both move well.  They can both guard the paint and defend on the perimeter.  Noel's body size is more suited to play the 4.  Together they could be a defensive force.  Offensively, Embiid is a good shooter with apparent 3pt range.  Noel's offense is obviously a work in progress but is looking better lately.       

[Who]

(1) Knicks -- Melo, top five pick, lots of cap space + Phil Jackson = albeit shortest window of these teams due to advanced Melo's age. Celtics and Sixers much better built for long term success. Knicks have best short-to-medium term future.

(2) Sixers -- top five pick, Noel, future draft picks, injury riddled Embiid
(3) Celtics -- lots of picks and cap space but little in core to build around thus far. Ainge gives the team more credibility than they would have otherwise. He is top 5 GM. Quality of GM is huge factor in any team's future.

..
..
..

(4) Lakers -- future does not start until they get rid of Kobe.

[LarBrd33]

You spend your time typing up this the day after a really nice win over one of the best teams in the NBA. Well played.

Also your constant labeling of smart as a defensive role player is pathetic. The guy couldn't legally by a beer until a week ago! He is coming off a rookie of the month award, is already showing really good defense, and you cant give him a full season to decide if he could turn into a capable offensive player or improve his shot? Your constant downplaying of Celtics assets and trumping up others teams is pretty frustrating.

Hey I listed Smart in the elite prospect bucket.  I'm skeptical, but it's mainly because I'm a pessimist.  Still, hard to look at a player averaging 7.5 points, 3.4 assists, 3.2 rebounds, 1.3 steals with 36%/32%/67% shooting and get too excited.  I wasn't big on him heading into the draft.  I saw him as maybe the 8th or 9th best prospect heading into it.  So I'm less likely to label him with "superstar potential" even compared to someone like Dante Exum who just seems young, inexperienced, but shows flashes of being an elite two-way player some day.  Smart's a great defensive player.  Not sure yet if he has potential to make an impact offensively.