Closer to Contending: Knicks, Lakers, Celtics, Philly?

[LarBrd33]

The Celtics.

BTW, how's your 15 win prediction for us working out?

That all changed when we dumped Rondo and Green.  We were something like 6-26 last season in games Rondo played.  He's the ultimate tank weapon.

[LarBrd33]

I think your analysis is a bit biased towards Philly. Saric hasn't played a minute of NBA ball, but you label him in the elite prospect category without hesitation while saying Smart might end up purely being a defensive role player. That's definitely unfair.

I agree with you that Embiid has the highest ceiling of all the prospects, but there's a very good chance he's the next Greg Oden. He's had two very scary injuries before even being drafted, and he recently reinjured himself, which doesn't look good for his durability. Furthermore, his ceiling is a long ways off. He's only played bball a couple of years, and though having a high ceiling, it will take a good system to get him there. No guarantee he can reach his peak in Philly in that horrible, losing atmosphere, or even reach it at all in any system.

As for Noel, I haven't seen anything from him that makes me think he's a better prospect than Smart. Both are defensive-oriented players with limited offensive games as of right now. However, Smart has shown he can hit shots, where I'm not sure what Noel has really shown on the offensive end. Both are special on the defensive end, but I don't think you can categorically say Noel is a better prospect than Smart. Furthermore, there's no way in hell him and Embiid can coexist in the frontcourt together. No way. So one of them will be misused and won't reach their peak.

As for the actual rankings, I'm not sure you can really rank them as of now. Of course LA and NY have the better chances of luring free agents, but their management, coaches, rosters, and teams are so horrible right now that there's no guarantee that they can do it. Even if they do get stars, do you trust a team ran by the young Fisher, who hasn't proved that he can even coach at this level, to be in contention?

My guess is it's a wash between Philly and Boston, but there's no real way to guess how they'll fare with free agents due to several factors. First, I don't think anyone is going to Philly for a couple years due to their reputation around the league as tankers. Well, a younger player wanting paid might go there, but I don't see them getting a couple of stars to sign there with their current reputation. Second, we don't know how Boston will fare with free agents this offseason, because we're basically in uncharted waters at this point with actually having cap space.

Embiid's soreness doesn't equate to him reinjuring himself.  His doctor just gave him the go ahead to practice more.  The Sixers can have Embiid for at least 4 more years.  Any rookie worth a darn is going to be a few years from their ceiling.  We better hope that Smart's ceiling is a few years away or else he will top out as a defensive role player. I'd put Smart and Noel at the same level but I think Noel has progressed more this season. 

I don't know why you're so definitive the Embiid and Noel can't coexist together.  Defensively both move well.  They can both guard the paint and defend on the perimeter.  Noel's body size is more suited to play the 4.  Together they could be a defensive force.  Offensively, Embiid is a good shooter with apparent 3pt range.  Noel's offense is obviously a work in progress but is looking better lately.       

I wouldn't put Smart and Noel on the same level.  It's nice having an offensively inept undersized SG with elite defensive ability, but it's nowhere near the impact of an offensively inept big man with elite defensive ability.

Nerlens is averaging something like 11 points, 12 rebounds, 3 blocks and 3 steals over his past 11 games since the all-star break.  You'd have to give up at least two Marcus Smarts to get a Nerlens Noel.   I've been banging this drum for a while now.  Grantland just ran a piece on it:  http://grantland.com/the-triangle/nerlens-noel-the-other-rookie-of-the-year/

But for nonconformists who rebel against the tyranny of points, Nerlens Noel is your guy. The Sixers' 20-year-old rookie is a lanky strand of sinew with a Big Daddy Kane flattop, a limited offensive game, and some of the most stunning defensive numbers ever posted by someone of his tender age. Not only does Noel lead all rookies in rebounds, blocks, and steals, he's also the only NBA player in the top 10 in both blocks (eighth) and steals (10th). That's not, you know, normal.

You consider Philly have potentially two franchise centers already on their team (Nerlens and Embiid) + a top 4 pick this season + Saric + the Lakers pick this year or next year + a few other viable trade assets like Tony Wroten + by far the most cap space... I'd definitely buy Philly stock right now.   

[colincb]

The Celtics.

BTW, how's your 15 win prediction for us working out?

That all changed when we dumped Rondo and Green.  We were something like 6-26 last season in games Rondo played.  He's the ultimate tank weapon.

Rondo was the reason you were so far off? I'm shocked that you were unable to foresee his trade under that scenario.

[chambers]

Good topic. It's hard to say who's in the better situation because of the luck of the draft.
I would say that the Knicks are currently in the best shape simply because:

They just signed Carmelo to an extension-he's in his prime as a top 15-20 player in the NBA.
They'll have cap space for 2 more free agents.
They'll have a top 3 pick- which they can trade or draft a potential stud with- and there are some nice studs in this draft.

That's an unbelievable set of circumstances to have and they could literally pull a 2008 Celtics and turn the team from bottom to top in one season. There's a reason Phily Jackson took this job on- the possibilities are mouth watering for Knicks fans this offseason.

Carmelo will always have his haters but with the right supporting cast they'd be a good team- look at his nuggets teams when he lead them to the WCF and those 2nd round battles when he was a baby.

I mean what if they go out and sign DeAndre Jordan or Roy Hibbert, Rondo and draft DAngelo Russell? Add Carmelo in there and that's a great team. Add a few shooters and they've got a contending core. The rumors are that Jimmy Butler will only consider New York as an alternative to Chicago. Imagine a Hardaway Jr, Butler, Carmelo, D Jordan, Okafur team?

I think the Celtics are the next closest to contending but we need free agents. Problem is that I don't see Danny going after any old free agents. There just aren't any coming out soon that I can see us grabbing which makes it difficult to see 'contention' in the near future. Perhaps the leftovers of DeAndre Jordan or Hibbert-whichever one doesn't go to New York. If the Spurs let Kwahi walk, then we have ask why they'd let him walk, and is he worth a max contract? Because someone will give him that max- or close.
Does a team of
Smart
Bradley
Kwahi
Sully
Hibbert

get anywhere? I'm not so sure.


Lakers are in last place I think- but again that can change at any time because of their market/location. Their problem is that they'll be like the Knicks are this summer once Kobe comes off the books with plenty of cap room and likely a nice pick.
Unfortunately they won't have a star in his prime like Carmelo as the Knicks do now.

Philly is a while away but it seems like their best bet to keep their experiment going because of the free agent market being pretty poor for the next year or two...

But in order I'd say:
Knicks
Celtics
Philly
Lakers

I'd put Orlando and Milwaulkee in the discussion too and they're both ahead of the Celtics in my opinion. Better assets and prospects than us on the whole.(Giannis, Jabari and Oladipo, Gordon, Vucevic)
Including them I'd make the list:

Knicks
Bucks
Magic
Celtics
Philly
Lakers

 

Problem for us is that none of our prospects are elite- other than Marcus Smart, who may or not be an All Star caliber player and needs a good season on offense to show us what we really have in his stock.

Could be a long few years if no free agents warm up to our beautiful weather here in beantown.

It would have been really nice to have a shot at Mudiay, Porzingris, Russell or Okafur this year.

The biggest question I'll be asking myself until the time comes is:

How do the Celtics acquire a franchise caliber player, and when do we acquire this player?

[LHR]

Funny that this was brought up.  I'm releasing a column on this very topic on the 22nd and already have plans to discuss it with Ian Thomsen on this week's show.

And already discussed this with an agent (who had some very interesting words regarding the Celtics and the franchise), as well.  His words will help me with my column.

To give one a preview of my opinion: It's not even close.  Really no debate here at all.

[JBcat]

I see more of the good free agents staying with their respective current teams with the possible exception of Rondo and maybe Monroe.  In an ideal world for the Knicks or Lakers both players of that caliber would need to team up for one of those teams, and that team would need to hit a home run in the draft.   I think the chances of all that happening are unlikely.

In the following offseason I think it's going to be tougher in free agency as those teams will have to compete with just about every team with cap space.

We still haven't seen Embiid yet, and we don't know who Philly is going to draft yet.  I would say they remain a huge question mark, and a long ways away.

We as well could still be far away, but Ainge is probably the best GM of the teams discussed here, he has tons of assets and flexibilty, and we are actually the only team in this group playing decent ball.

[tyrone biggums]

I'm a massive homer but I'm going to have to put the Knicks and Lakers over the Celtics. The reason is the 2016 free agent class. Both teams will have exploding amounts of cap space allowing them to steam roll teams such as Boston in that market. That being said it does make things much more critical for the Celtics to draft well this year. I wouldn't mind trading a ransom for Cousins or Okafor come June or July. If you can't beat them in FA then go other avenues. Regarding the 76ers they may very well have a bunch of elite potential but they're going to burn at least two years of Embiid and Noel rehabbing injuries and then getting them accustomed to the NBA. Giving them a 2 year head start towards NYC Miami or LA. Boston at least has a chance to keep their draft picks past the rookie contract. Who wants to stay in Philly?

[The One]

Great topic!

[apc]

All other three teams will need to find a good coach.

[Evantime34]

At this very moment it's us, but depending on the draft lottery and free agency that could drastically change.

We have the best coach, the most picks, the best execution and the best environment for the development of a young players at this point

[Fafnir]

At this very moment it's us, but depending on the draft lottery and free agency that could drastically change.

We have the best coach, the most picks, the best execution and the best environment for the development of a young players at this point

And fundamentally its still so top end talent driven that a single lottery pick would change things drastically.

[JBcat]

I'm a massive homer but I'm going to have to put the Knicks and Lakers over the Celtics. The reason is the 2016 free agent class. Both teams will have exploding amounts of cap space allowing them to steam roll teams such as Boston in that market. That being said it does make things much more critical for the Celtics to draft well this year. I wouldn't mind trading a ransom for Cousins or Okafor come June or July. If you can't beat them in FA then go other avenues. Regarding the 76ers they may very well have a bunch of elite potential but they're going to burn at least two years of Embiid and Noel rehabbing injuries and then getting them accustomed to the NBA. Giving them a 2 year head start towards NYC Miami or LA. Boston at least has a chance to keep their draft picks past the rookie contract. Who wants to stay in Philly?

The cap is going up by around 30 million in 2016 so just about every team in the league will have lots of cap space.  What a top free agent needs to ask himself is if he wants to play with an aging Melo or Kobe if they don't have much else.  Both of those teams IMO need to hit a home run in the draft first, and we don't know yet if that will happen.

[tazzmaniac]

At this very moment it's us, but depending on the draft lottery and free agency that could drastically change.

We have the best coach, the most picks, the best execution and the best environment for the development of a young players at this point

I don't think best coach is clear cut.  I really like what Brown is doing with a roster that has  significantly less talent and has had even more turnover.  We might have the most picks but Philly is close and their picks are better.  If we have the best environment for player development, why haven't Smart and Young developed more?  Noel has progressed more during this season than either Smart or Young. 

[slamtheking]

TBH, I think it goes like this:
1. Boston
2. NY
3. LA
4. Philly

Why:
Boston - best GM of the bunch, Stevens showing he's a very good coach, decent young assets although none I'd consider a cornerstone, a boatload of picks to use or trade (those Brooklyn picks are looking better every day), a large TPE to use on a player making good money and a sizable chunk of cap space coming up.  Add in Danny's demonstrated history of willing to make a big move to improve the team, I have to give the nod to the C's here.

NY has Melo ready to come back next year, a pick likely to be top 3 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and Phil Jackson to act as a lure for FA's impressed by his resume.

LA has Kobe ready to come back next year (he's unlikely to be as productive as Melo at this stage but he has a much stronger competitive mentality), a pick likely to be top 5 barring a major surprise in the draft, a decent amount of cap space and the lure of LaLa land for FAs impressed by that. 

Philly has a 2nd-year rookie that's improving and 2 rookies that aren't playing for them but could be very good.  they own picks will likely be high in the lottery for a few more years because they're expected to stink, NOT IMPROVE.  They'll get LA's pick probably next when LA has had an opportunity to improve their team and the pick will likely be late lottery if not out of the lottery.  The biggest drawback for Philly is that by the time they're young players start to develop some real skills, they'll be ready for restricted free agency and have a strong incentive to play for their QO and become an unrestricted free agent just to get out of that losing atmosphere while still getting their first big contract.  Granted this is yet to happen but I strongly believe they will bleed young talent that wants to go to a winning environment.

[Who]

I don't care much about coaches when evaluating rebuilding team's long term future.

Teams change head coaches so often nowadays that most - if not all - of these guys won't even be with their current team 3-5 years from now.