Why We Shouldn't Try for DeAndre Jordan

[Moranis]

Jordan is a role player.  You don't pay role players "big" money unless you have the foundation players already in place.  A team like the Clippers that has Paul and Griffin can pay Jordan.  A team like Boston that has no foundational pieces in place shouldn't even give Jordan a look.  Frankly even at 10 million a year it is a silly signing for this team since Boston doesn't have anywhere near a championship team in place.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Jordan is a role player.  You don't pay role players "big" money unless you have the foundation players already in place.  A team like the Clippers that has Paul and Griffin can pay Jordan.  A team like Boston that has no foundational pieces in place shouldn't even give Jordan a look.  Frankly even at 10 million a year it is a silly signing for this team since Boston doesn't have anywhere near a championship team in place.

Agreed. I would add that the Clippers have not even made it to the conference finals yet, partially because they have such a flawed player as their third highest paid player.

[CFAN38]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

Horford is a decent rim protector, but actually Tyler Zeller's and Kelly Olynyk's opponent field goal percentage is about the same as Horford's right now.

I was actually going to point out Zellers OFGP was a little better then Horfords you beat me to it. While neither or rim protectors at the truest sense they can function in a good system.

When I think of a true rim protector Im thinking a player who has elite length and standing reach who is a physical deterrent at the rim. Players like Horford or Zeller are good defenders who using their physical tools and good bball IQs to function in the middle of a defense. An example of an elite player in this mold is Noah. He really isn't ideally suited as a rim protector with his mediocre wingspan and reach but his super active with great defensive instincts.

While its great to have an elite physical presence like D Jordan I agree that he may not be worth the huge pay day. On a team with an established star where he is a super role player he may be worth the $$. On a building team I worry that he will try to do to much and struggle. His FT% also is a concern.

[SHAQATTACK]

He is ok ....but Celtics need to ve more established maybe ......I dunno ....he might be disappointed

But one would thunk ....with CP3 and Blake ......and the coaching genius of Glen Rivers (cough)they would be favorite to win the title.

If another star or borderline star ,  say Jimmy Butler could be brought in ......he might sign.

[MBunge]

Jordan is a role player.  You don't pay role players "big" money unless you have the foundation players already in place.  A team like the Clippers that has Paul and Griffin can pay Jordan.  A team like Boston that has no foundational pieces in place shouldn't even give Jordan a look.  Frankly even at 10 million a year it is a silly signing for this team since Boston doesn't have anywhere near a championship team in place.

Agreed. I would add that the Clippers have not even made it to the conference finals yet, partially because they have such a flawed player as their third highest paid player.

It's not so much what they pay him, though that's a problem.  It's that Doc is in love with Jordan as the third best player on the team.  Before Doc, Jordan averaged about 24-27 minutes a game because he's a liability on offense and, while a very good shot blocker, isn't really an elite defender in any other way.  With Doc, Jordan averages about 35 minutes a game and, while his rebounding has greatly increase, nothing else about his game has really improved.

Mike

[DefenseWinsChamps]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

Horford is a decent rim protector, but actually Tyler Zeller's and Kelly Olynyk's opponent field goal percentage is about the same as Horford's right now.

I was actually going to point out Zellers OFGP was a little better then Horfords you beat me to it. While neither or rim protectors at the truest sense they can function in a good system.

When I think of a true rim protector Im thinking a player who has elite length and standing reach who is a physical deterrent at the rim. Players like Horford or Zeller are good defenders who using their physical tools and good bball IQs to function in the middle of a defense. An example of an elite player in this mold is Noah. He really isn't ideally suited as a rim protector with his mediocre wingspan and reach but his super active with great defensive instincts.

While its great to have an elite physical presence like D Jordan I agree that he may not be worth the huge pay day. On a team with an established star where he is a super role player he may be worth the $$. On a building team I worry that he will try to do to much and struggle. His FT% also is a concern.

Great points about Noah. We don't have a big with elite defensive instincts. TP to you.

[alley oop]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article.

"..Opponents shoot 49.2 percent at the rim with Jordan nearby, which ranks 31st among 59 qualified big men... "

and

"The Clippers rank just 15th in defensive efficiency this season, slipping from a seventh-place ranking last season.... With Jordan on the floor, the Clippers give up 103.6 points per 100 possessions. When he hits the pine, it improves to 101.7 points per 100 possessions... not good news, especially considering that his backup is Spencer Hawes. While the Clippers' defense gets stingier when Jordan leaves the floor, just about every DPOY candidate has seen the opposite effect..."

and

"Most of Jordan's glass-cleaning impact is on the offensive end...The Clippers' defensive rebounding rate barely moves from 76.4 percent to 74.6 percent when he goes to the bench, indicating that he could be stealing defensive boards from his teammates."




~~~
There's more, but these are his main points.

Thanks.

[Celtics4ever]

Despite all those stats he would be an upgrade for us, I wager.  He needs to be surrounded by shooters and oopers as he can not create his own offense.  I am not sure we have those guys and I think CBS wants bigs who can shoot from deep ( leaves Sully out eh) like Jerebko that harken back to the Butler bigs.

[littleteapot]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

Horford is a decent rim protector, but actually Tyler Zeller's and Kelly Olynyk's opponent field goal percentage is about the same as Horford's right now.

I was actually going to point out Zellers OFGP was a little better then Horfords you beat me to it. While neither or rim protectors at the truest sense they can function in a good system.

When I think of a true rim protector Im thinking a player who has elite length and standing reach who is a physical deterrent at the rim. Players like Horford or Zeller are good defenders who using their physical tools and good bball IQs to function in the middle of a defense. An example of an elite player in this mold is Noah. He really isn't ideally suited as a rim protector with his mediocre wingspan and reach but his super active with great defensive instincts.

While its great to have an elite physical presence like D Jordan I agree that he may not be worth the huge pay day. On a team with an established star where he is a super role player he may be worth the $$. On a building team I worry that he will try to do to much and struggle. His FT% also is a concern.

I'm sorry but even if you just look at interior defense, Horford and Zeller are in different leagues. I'd suspect that his opposing FG% is worse because he is asked to cover more ground, and he just gets to more guys who are trying to score. IMO Zeller and KO are mostly making interior plays on one side of the floor - they don't have the recovery ability of Horford or DJ to sprint from one side of the paint to another and make a play to prevent a layup. When you can do that, guys are going to score on you at a higher percentage.

I'm not a big fan of the term "rim-protector" because it's ambiguous. My definition is a guy who can be a dominant help defender in the paint, regardless of how they do it. Some guys like Deandre Jordan do it by blocking shots and some guys like Noah or Horford do it by positioning themselves and an advanced understanding of passing/driving lanes and enough shotblock ability when needed. Horford is an example of that, and Zeller is not. Zeller is a nice player who has limitations that prevent him from becoming a true interior defender.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

Horford is a decent rim protector, but actually Tyler Zeller's and Kelly Olynyk's opponent field goal percentage is about the same as Horford's right now.

I was actually going to point out Zellers OFGP was a little better then Horfords you beat me to it. While neither or rim protectors at the truest sense they can function in a good system.

When I think of a true rim protector Im thinking a player who has elite length and standing reach who is a physical deterrent at the rim. Players like Horford or Zeller are good defenders who using their physical tools and good bball IQs to function in the middle of a defense. An example of an elite player in this mold is Noah. He really isn't ideally suited as a rim protector with his mediocre wingspan and reach but his super active with great defensive instincts.

While its great to have an elite physical presence like D Jordan I agree that he may not be worth the huge pay day. On a team with an established star where he is a super role player he may be worth the $$. On a building team I worry that he will try to do to much and struggle. His FT% also is a concern.

I'm sorry but even if you just look at interior defense, Horford and Zeller are in different leagues. I'd suspect that his opposing FG% is worse because he is asked to cover more ground, and he just gets to more guys who are trying to score. IMO Zeller and KO are mostly making interior plays on one side of the floor - they don't have the recovery ability of Horford or DJ to sprint from one side of the paint to another and make a play to prevent a layup. When you can do that, guys are going to score on you at a higher percentage.

I'm not a big fan of the term "rim-protector" because it's ambiguous. My definition is a guy who can be a dominant help defender in the paint, regardless of how they do it. Some guys like Deandre Jordan do it by blocking shots and some guys like Noah or Horford do it by positioning themselves and an advanced understanding of passing/driving lanes and enough shotblock ability when needed. Horford is an example of that, and Zeller is not. Zeller is a nice player who has limitations that prevent him from becoming a true interior defender.

I appreciate your thoughts. I definitely don't think that Zeller is as good as Horford. The point is that when an offensive player tries to score inside on Zeller or on Horford, their shooting percentage is the same amount.

I have bitten pretty hard on advanced stats. Many of the best teams in the league are using advanced stats to make their decisions (Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Thunder). Every advanced stat indicates that Jordan is an above average rim protector, but not elite. The only stat that indicates otherwise is his BPG, which can be a bit misleading. I don't think any of the the teams I listed would give Jordan anywhere close to a max contract (assuming they needed a big).

If you can prove to me rationally that Jordan is an elite rim protector with more than just an anecdotal argument like "two times a game he tips a shot attempt on its way up," then I am all ears.

[littleteapot]

I appreciate your thoughts. I definitely don't think that Zeller is as good as Horford. The point is that when an offensive player tries to score inside on Zeller or on Horford, their shooting percentage is the same amount.

I have bitten pretty hard on advanced stats. Many of the best teams in the league are using advanced stats to make their decisions (Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Thunder). Every advanced stat indicates that Jordan is an above average rim protector, but not elite. The only stat that indicates otherwise is his BPG, which can be a bit misleading. I don't think any of the the teams I listed would give Jordan anywhere close to a max contract (assuming they needed a big).

If you can prove to me rationally that Jordan is an elite rim protector with more than just an anecdotal argument like "two times a game he tips a shot attempt on its way up," then I am all ears.

I'm not super experienced with the shots at the rim stats (or any stats for that matter) but when I get home today I will try to do my best.

[Rosco917]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

Maybe a draft pick, but I would rather continue to allow our young bigs to develop to see if they can be respectable (Zeller and Olynyk actually have a similar opponent field goal % at the rim to Jordan). It is possible (see Atlanta Hawks), to be the top team in the East without a rim protector, if your system thrives of a cohesive defensive unit and highly efficient, potent, spread out offense.

But I'm probably in the minority of Celtic fans, because I would rather be patient and allow our young players to develop. Cohesion is an underrated asset to team development.

I'm looking at your handle...DefenseWinsChamps, so I know how you feel about defense.

And I can understand everyone has their opinions about certain players, I may not agree, but lets say for the sake of argument Jordan is a tad overrated. Not that I believe it.

And yes, I want to draft a center out of the college ranks and see if we can luck out too.

What I don't understand is you wanting to give Tyler Zeller and Kelly Olknyk another year to develop into rim protecting, defensive minded centers? That is simply not going to happen.

Zeller is nothing more than a backup center on a good team. He is frankly just not strong enough to give you 30 hard minutes a game. I like him, but not as a starter.

Kelly Olynyk better start playing much better by years end or be at risk of being packaged with a draft pick and traded away. KO is not, all of a sudden, going to morph into any type of a starting center at all.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Rosco, I do believe in defense, but I don't want to make incorrect assumptions about defense. For years in the NBA, you needed a dominate big man or the NBA MVP to win. However, in the mid 2000s, something weird happened in the NBA--big men stopped being good. They became less important because there were so few of them. In that wake (possibly caused by too many high school bigs going directly to the NBA), teams ran their offense through their point guards more and more. Suddenly, elite point guards became much more important to team wins.

That's all to say that, though there are many young big in the NBA today, teams learned how to win without them. Not that they aren't useful or valuable (they are still one of the most valuable assets in the NBA), but rather they aren't necessary.

That's my take on why we may not need an elite rim protector.

As far as Zeller or Olynyk goes, as a general rule, it takes more time for a big man to develop in the NBA. The older a player gets, the better his advanced defensive stats. You often don't see how good a big man will be until the middle or end of their second contrat (i.e. Favors, Jefferson, Milsap, Jordan, Ibaka, Hibbert, M. Gasol, Cousins, etc.)--that's at least 6 years of experience. Zeller and Sully are both on year 3. Olynyk is on year 2.

I would be interested in a rookie big man too--the right rookie big man. However, we need to understand that unless we luck into a player like Gobert, it will take us about 5-6 years before we see his potential reach his production.

At the same time, I like what I am seeing out of Zeller, Sully, and Olynyk as young big men. They each show the potential to continue to improve defensively (and not foul!). I don't think any of them are All-defensive 1st team candidates, but I do think they HAVE THE POTENTIAL to develop into big men who are solid enough to be bigs on true championship contenders. I don't think we will know for another few years.

Maybe I am loyal to a fault, but I would rather draft another big and stick with the bigs we have. Besides, I would really hate to see Zeller, Olynyk, or Sully picked up by a team like the Spurs and play big minutes for them.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

I appreciate your thoughts. I definitely don't think that Zeller is as good as Horford. The point is that when an offensive player tries to score inside on Zeller or on Horford, their shooting percentage is the same amount.

I have bitten pretty hard on advanced stats. Many of the best teams in the league are using advanced stats to make their decisions (Spurs, Warriors, Rockets, Thunder). Every advanced stat indicates that Jordan is an above average rim protector, but not elite. The only stat that indicates otherwise is his BPG, which can be a bit misleading. I don't think any of the the teams I listed would give Jordan anywhere close to a max contract (assuming they needed a big).

If you can prove to me rationally that Jordan is an elite rim protector with more than just an anecdotal argument like "two times a game he tips a shot attempt on its way up," then I am all ears.

I'm not super experienced with the shots at the rim stats (or any stats for that matter) but when I get home today I will try to do my best.

TP. That's all I can ask for. Good conversation.

[Rosco917]

Rosco, I do believe in defense, but I don't want to make incorrect assumptions about defense. For years in the NBA, you needed a dominate big man or the NBA MVP to win. However, in the mid 2000s, something weird happened in the NBA--big men stopped being good. They became less important because there were so few of them. In that wake (possibly caused by too many high school bigs going directly to the NBA), teams ran their offense through their point guards more and more. Suddenly, elite point guards became much more important to team wins.

That's all to say that, though there are many young big in the NBA today, teams learned how to win without them. Not that they aren't useful or valuable (they are still one of the most valuable assets in the NBA), but rather they aren't necessary.

That's my take on why we may not need an elite rim protector.

As far as Zeller or Olynyk goes, as a general rule, it takes more time for a big man to develop in the NBA. The older a player gets, the better his advanced defensive stats. You often don't see how good a big man will be until the middle or end of their second contrat (i.e. Favors, Jefferson, Milsap, Jordan, Ibaka, Hibbert, M. Gasol, Cousins, etc.)--that's at least 6 years of experience. Zeller and Sully are both on year 3. Olynyk is on year 2.

I would be interested in a rookie big man too--the right rookie big man. However, we need to understand that unless we luck into a player like Gobert, it will take us about 5-6 years before we see his potential reach his production.

At the same time, I like what I am seeing out of Zeller, Sully, and Olynyk as young big men. They each show the potential to continue to improve defensively (and not foul!). I don't think any of them are All-defensive 1st team candidates, but I do think they HAVE THE POTENTIAL to develop into big men who are solid enough to be bigs on true championship contenders. I don't think we will know for another few years.

Maybe I am loyal to a fault, but I would rather draft another big and stick with the bigs we have. Besides, I would really hate to see Zeller, Olynyk, or Sully picked up by a team like the Spurs and play big minutes for them.

Rosco, I do believe in defense, but I don't want to make incorrect assumptions about defense. For years in the NBA, you needed a dominate big man or the NBA MVP to win. However, in the mid 2000s, something weird happened in the NBA--big men stopped being good. They became less important because there were so few of them. In that wake (possibly caused by too many high school bigs going directly to the NBA), teams ran their offense through their point guards more and more. Suddenly, elite point guards became much more important to team wins.

That's all to say that, though there are many young big in the NBA today, teams learned how to win without them. Not that they aren't useful or valuable (they are still one of the most valuable assets in the NBA), but rather they aren't necessary.

That's my take on why we may not need an elite rim protector.

As far as Zeller or Olynyk goes, as a general rule, it takes more time for a big man to develop in the NBA. The older a player gets, the better his advanced defensive stats. You often don't see how good a big man will be until the middle or end of their second contrat (i.e. Favors, Jefferson, Milsap, Jordan, Ibaka, Hibbert, M. Gasol, Cousins, etc.)--that's at least 6 years of experience. Zeller and Sully are both on year 3. Olynyk is on year 2.

I would be interested in a rookie big man too--the right rookie big man. However, we need to understand that unless we luck into a player like Gobert, it will take us about 5-6 years before we see his potential reach his production.

At the same time, I like what I am seeing out of Zeller, Sully, and Olynyk as young big men. They each show the potential to continue to improve defensively (and not foul!). I don't think any of them are All-defensive 1st team candidates, but I do think they HAVE THE POTENTIAL to develop into big men who are solid enough to be bigs on true championship contenders. I don't think we will know for another few years.

Maybe I am loyal to a fault, but I would rather draft another big and stick with the bigs we have. Besides, I would really hate to see Zeller, Olynyk, or Sully picked up by a team like the Spurs and play big minutes for them.

I'm going to respectfully disagree with your assumption that all bigs improve in or around the 6 year mark. Some simply do not. Of the bigs you mentioned none have glaring physical weaknesses as do Sully and KO. Both are slow laterally, both are not leapers, both we're not noted for defense in college.

What I'm trying to communicate is KO's lateral quickness, quickness in general, or athleticism will not improve in years to come. Yes, his anticipation will improve, as his experience grows. True...He may improve his defensive game a little, but not enough to impact a team playing him at center. Unfortunately the same holds true of Sully, he will loose weight (hopefully) and he may be able to play longer minutes, but don't expect a defensive impact player to walk through the doors. Both are physically limited.

That said, it doesn't mean they're without use, we're only talking about defense here, on offense both will always find a way to help what ever team they're on. Both have offensive talent where quick reaction is not as important.

I feel the celtics need a man in the middle that will dissuade players from attacking us in our soft underbelly.
I feel D. Jordan will accomplish this in spades, and he is still young too and will continue to grow.

I also feel you under estimate the athleticism and quickness of the front line of Atlanta.