Why We Shouldn't Try for DeAndre Jordan

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Great article about how Jordan's stats are inflated in a system ...

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/12457815/why-deandre-jordan-deserve-dpoy-nba-insider-daily

I would take Jordan on a 4 year/10-12 million dollar contract, but nothing more. His legend is greater than his real value. Throwing max or near-max money at an incomplete player like Jordan is a recipe for perenially failing to reach the conference finals.

Seeing how the Celtics front office is a pretty big fan of advanced stats, I can't imagine that they would get him for the kind of money he wants.

[JohnBoy65]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

Maybe a draft pick, but I would rather continue to allow our young bigs to develop to see if they can be respectable (Zeller and Olynyk actually have a similar opponent field goal % at the rim to Jordan). It is possible (see Atlanta Hawks), to be the top team in the East without a rim protector, if your system thrives of a cohesive defensive unit and highly efficient, potent, spread out offense.

But I'm probably in the minority of Celtic fans, because I would rather be patient and allow our young players to develop. Cohesion is an underrated asset to team development.

[JohnBoy65]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

Maybe a draft pick, but I would rather continue to allow our young bigs to develop to see if they can be respectable (Zeller and Olynyk actually have a similar opponent field goal % at the rim to Jordan). It is possible (see Atlanta Hawks), to be the top team in the East without a rim protector, if your system thrives of a cohesive defensive unit and highly efficient, potent, spread out offense.

But I'm probably in the minority of Celtic fans, because I would rather be patient and allow our young players to develop. Cohesion is an underrated asset to team development.

Point noted, but when is the last time the Hawks won a championship? Most champions in recent years have had some sort of a defensive force on their team. The Celtics do not yet at this point.

[littleteapot]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

[alley oop]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article. 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

Maybe a draft pick, but I would rather continue to allow our young bigs to develop to see if they can be respectable (Zeller and Olynyk actually have a similar opponent field goal % at the rim to Jordan). It is possible (see Atlanta Hawks), to be the top team in the East without a rim protector, if your system thrives of a cohesive defensive unit and highly efficient, potent, spread out offense.

But I'm probably in the minority of Celtic fans, because I would rather be patient and allow our young players to develop. Cohesion is an underrated asset to team development.

Point noted, but when is the last time the Hawks won a championship? Most champions in recent years have had some sort of a defensive force on their team. The Celtics do not yet at this point.

That is a valid point, but I would suggest two things:

1) The Heat didn't have a really good rim protector. Anderson was a backup big and Bosh was merely average (or even below average) at the rim, but the defense was stellar due to cohesion, rotations, and pick-and-roll defense.
2) The NBA is in a state of change right now, and I think the Celtics are some of the early goers. More and more teams will consist of one shot creator with four versatile guys who can shoot, pass, dribble, and play defense on multiple positions. This has a lot of effects on the opposition: less fast break points, let pick-and-roll scores, more "homerun" possessions filled with bad threes, and general out of control offense.

If we got a great rim protector on a good contract, I would love it, but what I am trying to say is that it may not be as much of a necessity as the NBA continues to change.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

It is possible to, like the Hawks, be the top team in the East by having a very good system and having Al Horford who IS a rim protector.

Horford is a decent rim protector, but actually Tyler Zeller's and Kelly Olynyk's opponent field goal percentage is about the same as Horford's right now.

[JohnBoy65]

Heat didn't really have a rim protector you're right, but 4 of their starting 5 guys I would consider above average defenders. (LBJ, UD, Dwade, Chalmers) I would consider Bosh a defender, but he's certainly no Kevin Love.

[Who]

I think D.Jordan is worth about $14-15 million per annum so with the cap expected to go up about 25% that would be go up to around $17-18 million per year.

Considering D.Jordan is still showing improvement year-on-year, it is not unreasonable to pay a premium for potential. Say $2 million extra per year (~10-12%). So $19-20 million per annum.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article.

He gives a series of reasons:

1) His opponent field goal percentage at the rim ranks 31 out of 59 qualifying bigs
2) The Clippers are not a great defensive team
3) The Clippers are actually better defensively with him out of the game.
4) The Clippers are only slightly worse on the defensive boards without him in the game.
5) Advanced stats suggest that his rebounding numbers might be inflated due to him stealing rebounds from teammates.
6) He ranks 19th among all centers in the real plus minus stat.

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Heat didn't really have a rim protector you're right, but 4 of their starting 5 guys I would consider above average defenders. (LBJ, UD, Dwade, Chalmers) I would consider Bosh a defender, but he's certainly no Kevin Love.

Good points JohnBoy. Thanks for honest, good conversation.

[Monkhouse]

So what do you think are better/realistic alternatives for a rim-protecting center this summer?

Maybe a draft pick, but I would rather continue to allow our young bigs to develop to see if they can be respectable (Zeller and Olynyk actually have a similar opponent field goal % at the rim to Jordan). It is possible (see Atlanta Hawks), to be the top team in the East without a rim protector, if your system thrives of a cohesive defensive unit and highly efficient, potent, spread out offense.

But I'm probably in the minority of Celtic fans, because I would rather be patient and allow our young players to develop. Cohesion is an underrated asset to team development.

Point noted, but when is the last time the Hawks won a championship? Most champions in recent years have had some sort of a defensive force on their team. The Celtics do not yet at this point.

That is a valid point, but I would suggest two things:

1) The Heat didn't have a really good rim protector. Anderson was a backup big and Bosh was merely average (or even below average) at the rim, but the defense was stellar due to cohesion, rotations, and pick-and-roll defense.
2) The NBA is in a state of change right now, and I think the Celtics are some of the early goers. More and more teams will consist of one shot creator with four versatile guys who can shoot, pass, dribble, and play defense on multiple positions. This has a lot of effects on the opposition: less fast break points, let pick-and-roll scores, more "homerun" possessions filled with bad threes, and general out of control offense.

If we got a great rim protector on a good contract, I would love it, but what I am trying to say is that it may not be as much of a necessity as the NBA continues to change.

The Heat argument shouldn't apply to the Celtics. Having the best player in the league and above avg defenders in Chalmers, Wade, LBJ is vital.

[byennie]

Can you give the gist of why he believes "there's just not much that stands out?" One has to be a subscriber to see the article.

Mostly that "advanced" stats all point to him being an average defender, e.g.

Only average on opponent's FG% at the rim despite high blocks (so is that really a great rim defender?)

Below average on pick-and-roll defense (a staple of many good teams)

Doesn't move the needle on team defensive rebounding ("stealing" rebounds from teammates)

I'm not sure I agree with all of it, but it does seem to refute any DPOY talk. Generally speaking, he's not a well-rounded defender, just like his offense where he shoots a high percentage but it's dampened by his garbage free throws. He's one of the most talented, but least well-rounded players out there, so any team paying big bucks better have him in the right system to succeed.

[JohnBoy65]

Heat didn't really have a rim protector you're right, but 4 of their starting 5 guys I would consider above average defenders. (LBJ, UD, Dwade, Chalmers) I would consider Bosh a defender, but he's certainly no Kevin Love.

Good points JohnBoy. Thanks for honest, good conversation.

That's why we're here, right?