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Author Topic: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?  (Read 14015 times)

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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #15 on: March 07, 2015, 08:36:41 AM »

Offline jonaslopes

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Quote from: kozlodoev on March 07, 2015, 08:22:01 AM
No-one really knows. You can get Pierce at 10, Rondo at 21, or Michael Olowokandi at 1.

TP!
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It's nice seeing him get exposed as overrated after having argued with fellow fans for years that he was overrated.. but I don't hate him. I'm looking forward to seeing him [...] bounce around to a couple more teams... eventually come back to Boston[...] and helps us as a role player until he runs himself out of the league.
LarBrd33 on Rondo
Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #16 on: March 07, 2015, 09:07:05 AM »

Offline SHAQATTACK

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The odds after the first Five ,   Go up astronomically .  After guys like Parker and Wiggins last year , locks to be at least starters your odds of getting at NBA starter is truely like a state lottery.

Paul Milsap, Jimmie Butler and IT ......all were late ,late picks ........you d have about good as chance getting a player that good as finding a 20 dollar vintage gold coin in your front yard.

I like DA 's method of taking slightly broken or tarnished players and polishing them into something nice and shiney.    Like Sully .  A top five talent , with a bad back .   He gambled ,Sully was fixable .....all present issues aside ....the back is ok now and he can play very well.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #17 on: March 07, 2015, 09:17:02 AM »

Offline hwangjini_1

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Quote from: kozlodoev on March 07, 2015, 08:22:01 AM
No-one really knows. You can get Pierce at 10, Rondo at 21, or Michael Olowokandi at 1.
whoa!!! are they entering the draft this year??  ;)

but yes, your point is outstanding. having a better pick is, well, better. the ODDS of getting top talent increases the better the pick. having said that, koz is spot on that the draft is a crap shoot, even with #1. (can you say "anthony bennet"?)

indeed, i read somewhere, someplace, sometime, long, long ago (i.e. i am too lazy this morning to look it up again) the the #2 spot in the draft has the worst record among the top 5. the reasoning was that after the clear cut #1 pick, GMs often prayed and reached.

in this draft there seems to be 4-5 "sure bet favorites". after that, the next 6 or so are pretty much interchangeable depending upon your personal criteria, views, and team needs.

after the 10-12 spot, things get dicier. less talent is there, and more guesses and hope-fors and maybes appear. ("IF looney develops a jump shot, he can be a star sf!" sort of thing.)

if the celtics end up in the 12-15 range, unless someone drops, i expect danny to spend assets and trade up.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #18 on: March 07, 2015, 10:11:05 AM »

Offline loco_91

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There's always a chance that someone good slides. I don't think there are 13 or 15 really exciting prospects in this draft though - more like 9 or 10. I would be hoping to move up.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #19 on: March 07, 2015, 10:37:33 AM »

Offline Cman

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Quote from: jonaslopes on March 07, 2015, 08:36:41 AM
Quote from: kozlodoev on March 07, 2015, 08:22:01 AM
No-one really knows. You can get Pierce at 10, Rondo at 21, or Michael Olowokandi at 1.

TP!

Or Al Jefferson at #15.
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Celtics fan for life.
Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #20 on: March 07, 2015, 10:41:11 AM »

Offline ssspence

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Quote from: Cman on March 07, 2015, 10:37:33 AM
Quote from: jonaslopes on March 07, 2015, 08:36:41 AM
Quote from: kozlodoev on March 07, 2015, 08:22:01 AM
No-one really knows. You can get Pierce at 10, Rondo at 21, or Michael Olowokandi at 1.

TP!

Or Al Jefferson at #15.

Or Thomas at 60.
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Mike

(My name is not Mike)
Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #21 on: March 07, 2015, 10:47:11 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #22 on: March 07, 2015, 11:11:15 AM »

Online Vermont Green

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Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 07, 2015, 10:47:11 AM
Some perspective:

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/11th-overall/110509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/13th-overall/130509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/14th-overall/140509/

Etc.

I took a quick look down the list of #11 picks.  The last two Boston #11 picks were Kedrick Brown and Jerome Moiso.  Yikes, I hope we do better than that.

The other thing I noticed is that there were a lot more good players at the end of the list; Reggie Miller, Derek Harper, Kiki Vandeweghe, Fat Lever, Nick Anderson; I would take any of those guys.

The list makes we wonder though, is the talent really that much weaker these day than the "old days"?
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #23 on: March 07, 2015, 11:19:59 AM »

Offline Evantime34

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If we end up in the 13-15 range I think there is little chance that is where we stay. If we end up there I think we trade up to the 8-10 range.

However if we aren't able to do that I think Booker is going to be a really good player. Portis and Kaminsky will probably end up decent too.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #24 on: March 07, 2015, 11:21:54 AM »

Online Vermont Green

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Quote from: hwangjini_1 on March 07, 2015, 09:17:02 AM
indeed, i read somewhere, someplace, sometime, long, long ago (i.e. i am too lazy this morning to look it up again) the the #2 spot in the draft has the worst record among the top 5. the reasoning was that after the clear cut #1 pick, GMs often prayed and reached.

This piqued my interest so I checked the list of #2.  The bad ones include Milicic, Thabeet, Beasley, and Stromile Swift but there is also Durant, Aldridge, Okafor, and other good picks.

I think that this just shows that drafting is overrated.  Danny has the right idea; compile as many picks as you can to increase your odds of picking one of the good ones.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #25 on: March 07, 2015, 11:22:20 AM »

Offline Boris Badenov

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Quote from: Vermont Green on March 07, 2015, 11:11:15 AM
Quote from: Boris Badenov on March 07, 2015, 10:47:11 AM
Some perspective:

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/11th-overall/110509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/12th-overall/120509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/13th-overall/130509/

http://www.mynbadraft.com/nba-draft-picks/14th-overall/140509/

Etc.

I took a quick look down the list of #11 picks.  The last two Boston #11 picks were Kedrick Brown and Jerome Moiso.  Yikes, I hope we do better than that.


Pre-Danny!

Quote
The other thing I noticed is that there were a lot more good players at the end of the list; Reggie Miller, Derek Harper, Kiki Vandeweghe, Fat Lever, Nick Anderson; I would take any of those guys.

The list makes we wonder though, is the talent really that much weaker these day than the "old days"?

I think that's a small number phenomenon combined with the fact that we have 20 years of perspective on those guys. Hard to take a neutral perspective on that (especially if you were in your formative years as a fan).

I'd bet that if I looked at the same list from the 70s I'd think it contained a bunch of nobodies. But I look at Dale Davis and think "wow he was a really good player on those contending Indiana teams." In reality he was an above-average starter who made one (probably undeserved) All-Star team.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #26 on: March 07, 2015, 11:40:23 AM »

Online libermaniac

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There is no way the C's will get the 13th or 14th pick.  If they sneak in to the playoffs, they'll get the first non-lottery slot, or 15.  If not, there is no way they will catch Phoenix or NO for the best lotto records. So, if they miss the playoffs, the worst they'll pick is 12th.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #27 on: March 07, 2015, 11:41:25 AM »

Offline ctrey

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From my reading it seems the lottery is solid. A drop off occurs around 15 according to pundits. I doubt we make the playoffs so if we pick between 9-12 we will be fine with someone who can help us. I am honestly more interested to see Marcus Smart's development from year one to two.
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #28 on: March 07, 2015, 11:43:43 AM »

Online tazzmaniac

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Quote from: libermaniac on March 07, 2015, 11:40:23 AM
There is no way the C's will get the 13th or 14th pick.  If they sneak in to the playoffs, they'll get the first non-lottery slot, or 15.  If not, there is no way they will catch Phoenix or NO for the best lotto records. So, if they miss the playoffs, the worst they'll pick is 12th.
Unless Phoenix or NO jump them in the lottery. 
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Re: Question for Draft Experts: If We Pick 13-15 Can We Get Anyone Good?
« Reply #29 on: March 07, 2015, 11:46:11 AM »

Online libermaniac

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Quote from: tazzmaniac on March 07, 2015, 11:43:43 AM
Quote from: libermaniac on March 07, 2015, 11:40:23 AM
There is no way the C's will get the 13th or 14th pick.  If they sneak in to the playoffs, they'll get the first non-lottery slot, or 15.  If not, there is no way they will catch Phoenix or NO for the best lotto records. So, if they miss the playoffs, the worst they'll pick is 12th.
Unless Phoenix or NO jump them in the lottery.

Duh.  Ya, good point.  Too early in the morning out here in HI. ;-)
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