Was Rondo deal the right move for Mavs?

[Rtpas11]

http://espn.go.com/blog/dallas-mavericks/post/_/id/4704658/was-rondo-deal-the-right-move-for-mavs

OKLAHOMA CITY -- It would be ridiculously unfair to lay the blame for this lopsided loss solely at the feet of Rajon Rondo. His misery had plenty of company from his Dallas Mavericks teammates during Wednesday's 104-89 butt-whuping by the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Rondo certainly played a significant role in the excruciatingly ugly offensive performance, missing seven of his nine shots. But the Mavs' best scorers stunk it up, too. Dirk Nowitzki (6-of-16) shot the ball poorly. Chandler Parsons (3-of-12) was worse. And Monta Ellis (2-of-13) was even worse.

"Just for everybody not a good night all the way around," said Nowitzki, who led the Mavs with a meager 14 points.

• EnlargeRajon Rondo

Layne Murdoch Jr./NBAE/Getty Images
The Mavs are 12-9 with Rajon Rondo and, while their defense has improved, their offensive drop-off is more pronounced.
The harsh reality, though, is that Rondo hasn't had many good nights since arriving in Dallas as the featured attraction in a blockbuster deal on Dec. 18. After seeing point guards fly all over the league in the final hour before the trade deadline, it's worth asking whether the Mavs would have been better off exercising patience instead of pulling the trigger on the Rondo trade.

Could Mark Cuban have closed a deal to get Goran Dragic from the Phoenix Suns? The Miami Heat gave up four warm bodies and two first-round picks for a point guard who was third-team All-NBA last season.

How about Reggie Jackson? It didn't cost a whole lot for the Detroit Pistons to acquire Russell Westbrook's former disgruntled backup with starter talent. Detroit gave up point guard D.J. Augustin, small forward Kyle Singler and a pair of second-round picks in the three-way deal with the Utah Jazz. Or maybe the Mavs could have landed Brandon Knight, an explosive scorer who went from the Milwaukee Bucks to the Suns in a three-way deal. Phoenix gave up a pair of young backups -- center Miles Plumlee and guard Tyler Ennis -- and the Los Angeles Lakers' protected first-round pick.

A strong case can be made that any of those three point guards would have been much better fits for the Mavs than Rondo.

That isn't a knee-jerk reaction to the goggles-wearing Rondo struggling in his return after missing six games due to facial fractures. There were plenty of doubts about Rondo's fit in Dallas before he was dominated by All-Star MVP Westbrook, who lit it up for 34 points and 10 assists, compared to Rondo's five-point, six-dime performance.

"He looks healthy," coach Rick Carlisle said when asked to assess Rondo's outing. "He was a little tired because he wasn't playing. I know he didn't shoot well, but it's one game."

Well, it's a lot more than one game. Rondo always has been a subpar jump shooter, and he's not been nearly as dangerous off the dribble since his comeback from a serious knee injury, with his field goal percentage hovering just over 40 percent the past two seasons.

The presence of Rondo usually has served as clutter for what was the NBA's best offense since his arrival. It's an issue Rondo is determined to improve -- working with Nowitzki's longtime shot doctor Holger Geschwindner -- but the reality is he's at least a summer away from being even a respectable NBA shooter.

The Mavs have been a much better defensive team with Rondo, but their improvement on that end of the floor hasn't been as drastic as their offensive drop-off. And it's hard to be real fired up about Rondo as a defensive stopper in the wake of Westbrook essentially doing whatever he wanted.

The Mavs made the trade for Rondo because they felt they were nothing but first-round fodder with Jameer Nelson as their starting point guard. But Rondo hasn't made them better. They are 12-9 with him, not counting a win in Orlando when he was hurt 98 seconds into the game. That projects to a 47-win pace, which might not be good enough even to make the playoffs in the West.

The hope was that by making the deal in December, it would give the Mavs a two-month head start on establishing a rhythm with Rondo. It's been a rocky transition, and the Mavs had to start the process over in some respects after Rondo missed two-plus weeks. "Not necessarily hit the reset button, just get back adjusted and get back in a little bit of a rhythm, not just with them but with myself as well," Rondo said. "Missing two weeks in the NBA is a lot. Coming back first game with this type of tempo, these type of guys who run the floor and be in a bunch of pick-and-rolls is challenging. But that's what it's about.

"I'm fine. I'm able to adapt and adjust to anything."

Perhaps Rondo flips a switch for the playoffs. He does have a proven track record of being at his best in the postseason. But you have to reach into his past to find reason to be encouraged about his potential to help the Mavs make a run.

"We've got to keep working," Nowitzki said. "Unfortunately, he missed some longer time than we wanted to, but he'll be OK. He's a tough kid. We've just got to still find our groove."

If things don't get much better with Rondo, the Mavs still might have to find a starting point guard this summer.

[Roy H.]

Probably not.  It really hurt their offense, and that's how the team is built.  He has improved their defense (though not last night), but they don't have the personnel to be a great defensive squad.

[Eddie20]

The article was on point. Rondo's effort on the defensive end has been much better, but that didn't matter last night with the way Westbrook took his lunch money.

I'm really glad that it compared the assets that they gave up for him with what other teams gave up for better PGs (Dragic, Knight, etc.). Rondos return has been much debated, and many have been of the opinion the Cs received too little and should've waited until the deadline to increase other teams desperation. Well, not quite. Fact is, Ainge struck at the right time and the 1st rd pick we received from Dallas, which will transfer next season, has a strong chance of being a lottery pick. And the Rondo of today, the one that's clearly lost a step or two, has little impact on preventing it.

[rickyfan3.0...]

Great article.

[SHAQATTACK]

Rondo looked OLD ....last night anyway ......guys like Jackson , Westbrook , and bunch others are now so much quicker . 

Mavs live and die by the Dirk chuck .

I d thunk Parsons would have helped them more .....sorta like KLove HD gets lost on offense on Mavs ......he is much better player than what is doing .  He is on the wrong team too.

[saltlover]

To say Rondo has hurt them on offense means that you believe the Mavs were going to keep playing at their record-breaking pace that they started the season with.  I, for one, never thougt that would happen, because regression to the mean is a real thing.  I similarly think the Mavs didn't think that, which is why they wanted to make a trade before things went downhill.

Rondo's primary role on that team is to be one of distributor, and in some respects, he's doing that well.  58% of the time a Mav takes a shot after he passes to them, they score (either by a made basket or free throw).  With Nelson, that number was 55%, and with the Celtics, that happens 54% of the time.  Not only are the Mavs scoring with more efficiency after Rondo passes to them, they are shooting with more volume.  The Mavs shoot 22% of the time after Rondo passes to them, compared with only 17% of the time after Nelson passed to them.  However, both of these numbers are far different than when Rondo was in Boston, when the Celtics took a shot 28% of the time after Rondo passed the ball.

These numbers are derived from the NBA's player tracking stats.  Unfortunately I haven't figured out how to get a csv of the league stats as a whole (it's copy and paste into excel currently), so I can't tell you how those numbers compare across the league.  What is clear to me is two things: 1) Rondo has undeniably been better at creating good shots for his teammates than Nelson was, and 2) his role in the Mavs offense is very different than it was in Boston.

His shooting has been not good.  But compared to Nelson it hasn't been a huge drop-off, or arguably a drop-off at all.  He's shooting 39% from 3 and 40% from 2 (which is dreadful), while Nelson shot 37% from 3 and 38% from 2 (even more dreadful).  Really the only difference is free throws, but neither Rondo or Nelson attempted even 1 free throw per game as members of the Mavs, so this isn't as big of a deal as the vast difference in percentages would indicate.

Also, they've played a comparable number of minutes (29.1 minutes per game in 22 games, compared to 25.4 minutes per game in 23 games), so it a pretty good time to compare them.

Anyway, I'm not saying unequivocally that Rondo hasn't hurt the Mavs offense.  But at the same point, when you look at what he's done for the Mavs compared to what Nelson brought, it's pretty clear he's been an upgrade on an individual level.  It's entirely possible that the Mavs struggles right now are more than being about Rondo.

[BleedGreen1989]

I'm not sure but watching them roll out a line up of Rondo/Ellis/Aminu/Dirk/Chandler was pretty hard on the eyes from a spacing aspect.

[GranTur]

The Mavs' biggest weakness before the Rondo trade was their bench, not their starting PG. Trading away Crowder and Wright made their bench non-existent.

That said, Rondo needs a sports psychologist to fix his free throw shooting.

Rondo used to slice and dice defenses because he was an elite rim finisher. Since his surgery took a notch off his speed, he's been ineffective in the paint. Drawing fouls and making free throws are necessary to bring his game back. He added noticeable strength since his injury, and he needs to start using it.

Rondo doesn't garner respect in the paint anymore because he's not drawing fouls or making free throws anyway.  He could get Bass or KG an open mid-range jumpers regularly before. Now defenders have little incentive to guard him even 3 feet from the basket.

If Rondo can gain respect in the paint again, his mid-range jump shot will fall into place. He was actually a very good mid-range jump shooter in his last years with Boston despite his awkward shot.

[Roy H.]

To say Rondo has hurt them on offense means that you believe the Mavs were going to keep playing at their record-breaking pace that they started the season with.  I, for one, never thougt that would happen, because regression to the mean is a real thing.  I similarly think the Mavs didn't think that, which is why they wanted to make a trade before things went downhill.

Here are the numbers:

Dallas, which determined it needed to make a drastic defensive upgrade at point guard, was scoring at a historically elite pace before pulling the trigger on the trade for Rondo, averaging 113.6 points per 100 possessions. That figure fell to 106.0 in the 21 games that Rondo has played for the Mavs.

Dallas’ starting five is scoring at the exact same rate with Rondo. That’s a drop of 10.4 points per 100 possessions from the starters’ production with Jameer Nelson, whose contributions consisted almost solely of being a respectable jump shooter, at point guard.

I don't think you have to believe that the Mavs would have kept up their historically great offensive play.  However, there's no reason to think they couldn't have continued to play near a league-leading level.  The 106.0 points per 100 possessions they're averaging with Rondo would be good for somewhere around 7th to 9th in the league.

When we're talking about a drop of 7.6 points per 100 possessions overall, or -10.4 points per 100 possessions with the starters versus Jameer Nelson, it's not just an example of regression to the mean.

[Fafnir]

I wonder how much of it is Dirk slowing down from a great start to the season and how much of it is Rondo cramping their spacing.

[RJ87]

The Mavs' biggest weakness before the Rondo trade was their bench, not their starting PG. Trading away Crowder and Wright made their bench non-existent.

That said, Rondo needs a sports psychologist to fix his free throw shooting.

Rondo used to slice and dice defenses because he was an elite rim finisher. Since his surgery took a notch off his speed, he's been ineffective in the paint. Drawing fouls and making free throws are necessary to bring his game back. He added noticeable strength since his injury, and he needs to start using it.

Rondo doesn't garner respect in the paint anymore because he's not drawing fouls or making free throws anyway.  He could get Bass or KG an open mid-range jumpers regularly before. Now defenders have little incentive to guard him even 3 feet from the basket.

If Rondo can gain respect in the paint again, his mid-range jump shot will fall into place. He was actually a very good mid-range jump shooter in his last years with Boston despite his awkward shot.

He never got to the line much, so I don't expect that to suddenly change.

For all the crap he gets, I think he's still adjusting to a new team and a new role. It's unfortunate he got the facial injury because now he's got to get used to that mask/glasses.

Last night's game was brutal but the Mavs missed A TON of open looks. Some from three, some right at the rim. They couldn't rebound to save their lives either. Maybe some of those guys enjoyed the Allstar break a little too much.

[Fafnir]

Eh don't overanalyze getting beat by the Thunder. When they have Durant/Westbrook/Ibaka available the Thunder are still a top 5 team in the league. That's with their chemistry still being all over the place. (thanks Reggie and injuries)

[Rhyso]

I don't think he is a great fit, however they improved their overall talent and he has brought the teams glaring weakness to the surface: Defense.

When shots won't drop (and they often don't when Rondo shoots currently), good teams rely on their defense to win games, but outside of Rondo, Chandler and Aminu, they have only offensive players. Dirk is a huge liability on defense, and Parsons has not been producing anything close to his salary. FYI Parsons offensive move is to pump fake defenders to death and then shoot the flattest arcing shot in history. Bottom line, this team can't get stops when they need them.

Also, one of Rondo's greatest attriubtes as a player is controlling the pace of the game, which is almost a non factor if the Mav's want to run and gun. The pick n roll offense just doesn't suit Rondo because he can't shoot.

[GranTur]

The Mavs' biggest weakness before the Rondo trade was their bench, not their starting PG. Trading away Crowder and Wright made their bench non-existent.

That said, Rondo needs a sports psychologist to fix his free throw shooting.

Rondo used to slice and dice defenses because he was an elite rim finisher. Since his surgery took a notch off his speed, he's been ineffective in the paint. Drawing fouls and making free throws are necessary to bring his game back. He added noticeable strength since his injury, and he needs to start using it.

Rondo doesn't garner respect in the paint anymore because he's not drawing fouls or making free throws anyway.  He could get Bass or KG an open mid-range jumpers regularly before. Now defenders have little incentive to guard him even 3 feet from the basket.

If Rondo can gain respect in the paint again, his mid-range jump shot will fall into place. He was actually a very good mid-range jump shooter in his last years with Boston despite his awkward shot.

He never got to the line much, so I don't expect that to suddenly change.

For all the crap he gets, I think he's still adjusting to a new team and a new role. It's unfortunate he got the facial injury because now he's got to get used to that mask/glasses.

Last night's game was brutal but the Mavs missed A TON of open looks. Some from three, some right at the rim. They couldn't rebound to save their lives either. Maybe some of those guys enjoyed the Allstar break a little too much.

For sure. Rondo should not be pointed at for the Mavs' struggles. They don't have any bench to speak of, and the adjustment is difficult for both him and the team.

Rondo was always averse to contact under the hoop. I don't expect that to change, but he needs to start drawing fouls to compensate for his lower speed post-injury.

He's still a fast player, but he's not faster than other fast players anymore. Rondo should utilize his footwork, IQ, and developing strength to get to the line more. It'll help the rest of his game drastically.

[saltlover]

To say Rondo has hurt them on offense means that you believe the Mavs were going to keep playing at their record-breaking pace that they started the season with.  I, for one, never thougt that would happen, because regression to the mean is a real thing.  I similarly think the Mavs didn't think that, which is why they wanted to make a trade before things went downhill.

Here are the numbers:

Dallas, which determined it needed to make a drastic defensive upgrade at point guard, was scoring at a historically elite pace before pulling the trigger on the trade for Rondo, averaging 113.6 points per 100 possessions. That figure fell to 106.0 in the 21 games that Rondo has played for the Mavs.

Dallas’ starting five is scoring at the exact same rate with Rondo. That’s a drop of 10.4 points per 100 possessions from the starters’ production with Jameer Nelson, whose contributions consisted almost solely of being a respectable jump shooter, at point guard.

I don't think you have to believe that the Mavs would have kept up their historically great offensive play.  However, there's no reason to think they couldn't have continued to play near a league-leading level.  The 106.0 points per 100 possessions they're averaging with Rondo would be good for somewhere around 7th to 9th in the league.

When we're talking about a drop of 7.6 points per 100 possessions overall, or -10.4 points per 100 possessions with the starters versus Jameer Nelson, it's not just an example of regression to the mean.

Without deeper numbers isolating that decline to Rondo, yes, frankly, it is.  I've shown cursory numbers indicating the opposite, because that's all I have time for, and I went in not knowing what I'd find.  I'll defer to you on law, but not on statistics, not when statistics is part of my job.  Rondo has been a better PG for the Mavs than was Jameer Nelson.  If that's not working for them, it could be randomness, or it could be some other factor.  But at things like setting up your teammates to score, which is what both of those players' primary jobs were and are, he's been better.  And even at a secondary role like shooting, there's been no difference, even if both have performed poorly at that role.

Again, I'm not saying that it isn't on Rondo.  I am saying I need more than team offensive numbers to arrive at that conclusion.  And also, I should say that I'm not at all certain that the Mavs wouldn't have been better off trying to get a Dragic or Jackson (although I think that hypothetical overlooks the fact that both players were sent to the Eastern conference.  I esoecially think there was no chance the Thunder would deal the Mavs Jackson mid-season when they're potentially competing for the same playoff spot, and I believe similarly but not as strongly about the Suns and Dragic).  Counterfactuals are tough to argue, especially when there are innumerable variables.