Author Topic: Concerned  (Read 7836 times)

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Re: Concerned
« Reply #15 on: February 10, 2015, 01:20:10 PM »

Offline PickNRoll

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Nothing against Oly but I'm beginning to worry about Danny's draft scouting.
He made decision to move up in the draft to get Oly.
Doing so he passed on giannis.
Danny thought he had a inside track but chose a complimentary piece over a kid who looks like a star in the making.,.
GM's attempting to take the best player available succeed about 20% of the time.  30% of the time, in the first round, they pick a guy who flames out of the league in 3 years or less. About half the time they pick a guy who finds an NBA career, but was not the best possible choice.

Not making the absolute perfect pick isn't something you can really condemn.  Taking the absolute best player available, in hindsight, is a real accomplishment.  Ainge has done it many times.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #16 on: February 10, 2015, 01:32:53 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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Nothing against Oly but I'm beginning to worry about Danny's draft scouting.
He made decision to move up in the draft to get Oly.
Doing so he passed on giannis.
Danny thought he had a inside track but chose a complimentary piece over a kid who looks like a star in the making.,.
GM's attempting to take the best player available succeed about 20% of the time.  30% of the time, in the first round, they pick a guy who flames out of the league in 3 years or less. About half the time they pick a guy who finds an NBA career, but was not the best possible choice.

Not making the absolute perfect pick isn't something you can really condemn.  Taking the absolute best player available, in hindsight, is a real accomplishment.  Ainge has done it many times.
TP


We, as fans, see when other teams make a correct selection, and it feels like we miss on more picks than others. But really, every team makes and misses


Darryl Morey is considered a great gm, but he selected royce white pretty high


The cavs got bennet, and tristan thompson with high picks


The nets....well they dont really ever draft , do they  ;)
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Concerned
« Reply #17 on: February 10, 2015, 01:42:16 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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I'd question more 3J and Fab, who both seemed to be late-first picks by need, rather than BPA. Not generally a good idea.
Thing about his other whiffs is that he did not trade up, consolidate assets to get them.
When he bundles multiple picks to move up he must be thinking " this is the guy". It's a fine strategy but when you use it you don't want to look back and say "oy" when looking what the guy drafted after our pick is doing.
There are too many guys drafted after any pick to get fixated on that.

There is a general problem with moving up. If there is risk for every player, it often makes sense to put yourself in a position to pick a lot instead of moving up.

I don't have a problem with the Olynyk pick. He is fine value for his draft position.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #18 on: February 10, 2015, 01:44:10 PM »

Offline guava_wrench

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Nothing against Oly but I'm beginning to worry about Danny's draft scouting.
He made decision to move up in the draft to get Oly.
Doing so he passed on giannis.
Danny thought he had a inside track but chose a complimentary piece over a kid who looks like a star in the making.,.
GM's attempting to take the best player available succeed about 20% of the time.  30% of the time, in the first round, they pick a guy who flames out of the league in 3 years or less. About half the time they pick a guy who finds an NBA career, but was not the best possible choice.

Not making the absolute perfect pick isn't something you can really condemn.  Taking the absolute best player available, in hindsight, is a real accomplishment.  Ainge has done it many times.
TP.

In general, any argument that uses a single decision to evaluate a GM is an argument that should not be taken seriously.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #19 on: February 10, 2015, 02:06:26 PM »

Offline Future Celtics Owner

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We still would have had to move up for GA. How about trading for BRUNO CABOLCLO? I'm sure TOR would take KO.

Also I wish we drafted Gobert. I think he was not drafted by Utah but traded for a 2nd round pick...I'll have to check.


Re: Concerned
« Reply #20 on: February 10, 2015, 02:16:10 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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Danny does seem to have a MO of picking guys with tangible skills and a demonstrated ability to play the game, even when they don't have a well defined position and they lack ideal physical tools.

He does not often seem to pick players who are the opposite -- immense potential thanks to crazy physical dimensions / gifts, but unclear if they'll ever learn how to play.  The one example that comes to mind is Fab Melo, and we know how that worked out.  Fab might have been a good pick if he were 18 at the time Danny drafted him, though.

I don't think it's unfair to suggest that Danny is better than average at finding guys who belong in the NBA and who can contribute.  On the other hand, I don't think Danny often finds "home run" guys.  Even Rondo seems to me more a "best case" of the former scenario rather than the latter.  It's not like Rondo turned into this amazing all-around player.  He was just a lot better at the things he was good at than anybody, except maybe Ainge, expected.


Olynyk was not a bad pick.  It does appear that Giannis, Gobert, and maybe Dieng and Schroeder will end up as better picks in the long run.  But the common thread I see here is that all of the latter group are foreigners, and only one of them played in the NCAA.  That may be Danny's biggest blind spot.  He just doesn't seem to scout and draft foreigners very often, or very well (yes, I'm aware Kelly is Canadian).

Nobody should get their hopes up about Danny drafting Kristaps Porzingis or Mario Hezonja in this year's draft, I'd say.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Concerned
« Reply #21 on: February 10, 2015, 06:05:12 PM »

Offline mahcus smaht

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I hated the Olynyk pick but I am not all that concerned. Rondo, big Al, Bradley, Perk, and Sully were all good finds later in the draft so was Tony Allen. He found all those guys in the back half of round 1, on top of that Smart looks good and so does Yound. Ainge has struggled to find starpower but he hasnt been high in the draft often.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #22 on: February 10, 2015, 06:15:13 PM »

Offline Csfan1984

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If KO was aggressive he would be a hell of a player so not a bad pick. KO just hasn't found the killer instinct that he needs to reach a reliable and good playing level. GA isn't that good of a player from what I have seen, the kid is however physically gifted and very aggressive. KO should also be putting up good #s per 48 if he develops more mental drive. Just play hard, fast and smart then he will be fine.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #23 on: February 10, 2015, 06:26:21 PM »

Offline LarBrd33

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Meh... where guys like Fab Melo were taken is a crap shoot.  Tons of garbage players taken after Fab Melo.  And it's hard to bash the Fab melo pick without acknowledging we took Sullinger 1 pick earlier. 

Danny hasn't whiffed on many top 10 picks.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #24 on: February 10, 2015, 07:10:23 PM »

Offline loco_91

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Danny is an excellent drafter. Every GM swings and misses sometimes, and you can look at Fab Melo for an example. KO, on the other hand, looks like he belongs in the NBA, and the fact that Giannis is the only guy drafted after him that you'd rather have, well, Danny did pretty darn well. How was he to know that Giannis was going to GROW??? And obviously, he hit it out of the park with Smart...

Re: Concerned
« Reply #25 on: February 10, 2015, 07:14:03 PM »

Offline aingeforthree

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Nothing against Oly but I'm beginning to worry about Danny's draft scouting.
He made decision to move up in the draft to get Oly.
Doing so he passed on giannis.
Danny thought he had a inside track but chose a complimentary piece over a kid who looks like a star in the making.,.

It's not like he gave up a first round pick FOR A COACH to move up to nab Olynyk.  Keep the development going with Olynyk, he can add a lot going forward with his skill set.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #26 on: February 10, 2015, 07:17:09 PM »

Offline aingeforthree

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Danny does seem to have a MO of picking guys with tangible skills and a demonstrated ability to play the game, even when they don't have a well defined position and they lack ideal physical tools.

He does not often seem to pick players who are the opposite -- immense potential thanks to crazy physical dimensions / gifts, but unclear if they'll ever learn how to play.  The one example that comes to mind is Fab Melo, and we know how that worked out.  Fab might have been a good pick if he were 18 at the time Danny drafted him, though.

I don't think it's unfair to suggest that Danny is better than average at finding guys who belong in the NBA and who can contribute.  On the other hand, I don't think Danny often finds "home run" guys.  Even Rondo seems to me more a "best case" of the former scenario rather than the latter.  It's not like Rondo turned into this amazing all-around player.  He was just a lot better at the things he was good at than anybody, except maybe Ainge, expected.


Olynyk was not a bad pick.  It does appear that Giannis, Gobert, and maybe Dieng and Schroeder will end up as better picks in the long run.  But the common thread I see here is that all of the latter group are foreigners, and only one of them played in the NCAA.  That may be Danny's biggest blind spot.  He just doesn't seem to scout and draft foreigners very often, or very well (yes, I'm aware Kelly is Canadian).

Nobody should get their hopes up about Danny drafting Kristaps Porzingis or Mario Hezonja in this year's draft, I'd say.

The EURO leagues and that competition would be tough on the worlds best scouting department.  You just can't trust that league sometimes.  I mean guys that can't get off the bench in college sometimes dominate those leagues.  That's darn tough to scout.

Regardless, I think Ainge usually nets a commodity.  Sure, he's missed.  But more often than not, he'll find a starter, a 10-15 minute bench player, etc.  He hits more often than he misses.  Olynyk, Smart, & Young are hits for me.  People just want to grade them now as finished products and its not fair.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #27 on: February 10, 2015, 07:55:30 PM »

Offline PhoSita

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I agree that Danny nets a commodity more often than not.

However, I wouldn't blame anybody for questioning whether it's really a satisfactory strategy to just try and get "a commodity" in the draft, given where this team is at in its building process.

I understand the value of having players who can play, and lots of teams stay stuck in rebuilding purgatory because they swing for the fences all the time in the draft and just strike out a bunch.  Still, it's hard to build a really exciting up and coming team with a bunch of guys that are simply decent role players.
You’ll have to excuse my lengthiness—the reason I dread writing letters is because I am so apt to get to slinging wisdom & forget to let up. Thus much precious time is lost.
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Re: Concerned
« Reply #28 on: February 10, 2015, 08:02:31 PM »

Offline Ogaju

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it seems to me that he looked long and hard at Giannis, but just could not pull the trigger.

Re: Concerned
« Reply #29 on: February 11, 2015, 08:47:05 PM »

Offline BornReady

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How many blogs are bashing their GM for picking anyone after Brandon Roy in 2006 and "passing" on Rajon Rondo. Can you believe they all passed on a 4x all star, 4x all defensive team, and champion?

1. Hindsight is 20/20
and 2. Lets see how GA plays out. I may be in the minority but I'm not seeing what the hype is all about. Rudy Gay was/is athletic but that doesn't always mean success.


wasnt it understandable that people passed on rondo, even ainge was wondering whether to draft him or another PG but decided on rondo after a 2nd workout

rondo wasnt used very well in college and was a poor free throw shooter and terrible 3 point shooter
GMs probably thought it was unorthodox to get PG that is a terrible shooter as there are so many PG that are at least average shooters