2016 dream draft: five lottery picks?

[mef730]

Three caveats:

1.  I'm not saying this situation will happen.  I'm not even saying it's likely.  It's highly unlikely.  But it's fun to think about it.

2.  I do realize that we haven't even started the 2015 draft, but 2016 has such potential to shake out well for us...

3.  I'm assuming "average luck" with the ping pong balls, not "Celtics luck."

Top 5:

Boston (earned on our own): Should finally outperform Brooklyn.  But considering that I've been rotten at predicting how the Celtics will do, they could still tank, on purpose or not.

Brooklyn (Thanks KG and PP!): I don't think they'll be as bad as general consensus has them, but they can't seem to make it through an entire season without injuries to key players.

My estimate of at least one Top-5 pick:

1<--------------------------------------------------6------------------------------>10
No Way                                                                                                             Definite

10-14:

Dallas: Dirk turns 37 in June.  Rondo clearly isn't the Rondo we used to know and love.  Oklahoma will have a full year of Durant and Westbrook in a still-dominant West.  Their pick is protected 1-7, which is okay, since they won't be that bad.  I'm looking at about a 10 pick.  My estimate:

<------------------------------------------5---------------------------------------->

Minnesota: They're not that bad.  Rubio and Kevin Martin have a full year.  Andrew Wiggins turns into an all-star or near all-star.  A good draft gets them Okafor (Jonny Flynn's not around, right?).  The team still isn't great, but they're good enough to fall outside the top 12 protected picks.  Granted, the chances of their ending up in the 13 or 14 spot, the two spots that would benefit us the most, are slim, but this is my dream scenario, not real life.  I see a 13 here.  Wow, I'm almost talking myself into this one.  My estimate:

<-------------------------------4--------------------------------------------------->

Cleveland: Okay, this one's going to take some work.  Cleveland finally looks like, well, Cleveland, or at least the team we expected them to be.  Remember, a slow start happened for LeBron in Miami, also.  Hmm, how do we get there?

Ah, here's the scenario: Kevin Love decides that he's had enough of the cold and misses his girlfriend, moving to the Clippers (because I can't bear the thought of putting him on the Lakers).  LeBron slips in the shower or bumps into a door or something and misses some time.  Kyrie goes off the deep end, and the Cavs slip into the lottery, at #14, comfortably outside the 1-10 protection.  My estimate:

<--1.1----------------------------------------------------------------------------->

Next topic: What could happen in 2019 if all the chips fall our way.  I'll work on that, well, whenever.

Mike

[slamtheking]

nice thought - one thing was missing - if you're only predicting one of the C's and Nets picks to be top 5, where does the other end up?

Next year, C's will do well with their pick and the Nets picks - both should be lottery.  Dallas has a fair shot of missing the playoffs in the West too.  Minny, even with everyone back healthy, Wiggins and Lavine improved over the course of another year and an additional top player from this draft, I think they're more likely to be top 12 than out of it.  I believe this one will not be realized.

Cleveland will be well outside the lottery unless both Kyrie and Bron go down for lengthy parts of the season.  even without Love, they'd be good enough to get high teens or, in the case everything comes together for them, mid-20's.

[Mass_1081]

  My guess, Mavs pick #20, Cavs pick #28, Minnesota pick won't be picked up till 2017, Nets pick #17, C's pick #16. I think the Celtics get the tenth pick this year , and we'll see them improve  a little. Brooklyn can move some of that cash off the books this year, I am not all that sure they'll fall as much as people think.

[PickNRoll]

TP for a fun thread.  I don't think Dallas will be the 10th worst team in the league and I doubt Minnesota will be better than Dallas, but it's sure possible that they both fall in the middle of the pack.  Fun to dream.

[PickNRoll]

  My guess, Mavs pick #20, Cavs pick #28, Minnesota pick won't be picked up till 2017, Nets pick #17, C's pick #16. I think the Celtics get the tenth pick this year , and we'll see them improve  a little. Brooklyn can move some of that cash off the books this year, I am not all that sure they'll fall as much as people think.

Your glass is half empty!

[konkmv]

Probably not getting minys first...

[konkmv]

My prediction... for 2016.. celtics 7, nets 5, dallas 16, cavs 26...

[Eddie20]

  My guess, Nets pick #17. Brooklyn can move some of that cash off the books this year, I am not all that sure they'll fall as much as people think.

The funny thing is that you actually have them improving since they're currently at #12. That'll be really tough to do with an aging core (Williams & Johnson), poor draft position (Atlanta has right to swap, so that'll be pick #29), no cap space, KG likely retiring or moving on without compensation, Telotovic possible medical retirement, and two of their better younger players (Plumlee and Lopez) who compliment each other horribly.

My prediction:

Nets get worse #8 (currently #12)

C's get slightly better #11 (currently #9)

Mavs drop significantly #14 (currently #23)...this is a result of them playing in the brutal west (GS, LAC, Hou, Mem, SA, Por, and OKC) with those 7 teams likely being better than them. I can easily see either NO (led by a rapidly improving Anthony Davis) or Phoenix (especially if they land the Lakers pick this year, which is top 5 protected) surpassing them. Also, as mentioned before, they're aging. At next season's end Rondo will be 30, Dirk 37, Chandler 33, and Ellis 30.

Cavs # 27 (currently #19)

Minnesota N/A since it won't convey

So having picks #8, 11, 14, and #27 is still a great start.

[BigAlTheFuture]

Is 2016 a strong draft class? I'm gonna predict we get #1 and #2 pick (BOS and BKN)

[mef730]

nice thought - one thing was missing - if you're only predicting one of the C's and Nets picks to be top 5, where does the other end up?

TP for catching that, thanks!  My guess is that one of them will be 1-5, the other will be 6-10.  I'm very hopeful for that Dallas pick, too.  Minneapolis or Cleveland?  Not as much.

Mike