Author Topic: Super Bowl XLIX Thread  (Read 83486 times)

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Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #360 on: February 04, 2015, 07:39:06 PM »

Offline Surferdad

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Alright, after a couple of days to digest it, I'm going to ask the question;

During that sequence between the Lynch run to the 1/2 yard line & Butler's INT,  are people buying the idea that Belichick was playing the highest stakes game of chicken ever with Carroll by not calling a timeout or was he literally still shell shocked by the Kearse catch?

The Washington Post had an excellent article on this:  http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/sports/wp/2015/02/02/bill-belichick-made-a-sneaky-smart-decision-that-might-have-contributed-to-fateful-play-call-by-pete-carroll/

Because, I honestly, still have no idea. 

I'm glad it worked out but being someone who loves studying football strategy and the chess-like aspect of coaching and coaches at a much, much, much, much, much lower level of football, I still can't come to a conclusion on this.

I was debating this all week with my brother and still think he should have called a timeout. I think Brady leading the team down for a field goal with either 1 or zero timeouts left and 50 seconds was higher probability than them stopping them from 2 and goal at the 1. Remember Brady had already driven them for 140 yards in the 4th quarter at this point

But Brady had been doing it with mostly dink & dunk passing.  That type of offense doesn't exactly fly in a situation where you need to go 40-50 yards in under a minute with one or no timeouts left.   Passing to the middle of the field is almost totally out of the question in that situation and the defense knows that.   Not impossible but certainly not easy. 

At the time, I thought they should've just let Lynch score there on 1st down.  Get the ball back with roughly 55 seconds to go and two timeouts only needing to get into FG range.   Gives you more options on what you can do offensively. 

After the fact, and hearing Belichick's rationale for it, it is absolutely amazing to me to think that he was able put call upon a scenario in his head for that very situation is the amount of time he did.  That he was going to push Carroll to throw there on second down and force his hand by not calling a timeout and that Carroll actually played into the hands of the personnel that Belichick already had out there on the field.     Just amazing to think he would have the recall to figure that it in that very situation with the chaos going on all around him.
Excellent analysis of what may have been going on. What a genius.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #361 on: February 07, 2015, 11:46:13 AM »

Offline JSD

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Entire Super Bowl 49, including commercials, posted on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3642ApYNxwM


You're welcome.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #362 on: February 07, 2015, 12:20:38 PM »

Offline GratefulCs

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Entire Super Bowl 49, including commercials, posted on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3642ApYNxwM


You're welcome.
OH. MY. GOD.


!!!!


Thank you! So much!


Gonna watch it stress free tonight


TP
I trust Danny Ainge

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #363 on: February 07, 2015, 12:22:53 PM »

Offline JSD

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Entire Super Bowl 49, including commercials, posted on youtube:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3642ApYNxwM


You're welcome.
OH. MY. GOD.


!!!!


Thank you! So much!


Gonna watch it stress free tonight


TP

I got you bro. TP for being as happy as I was to find it.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #364 on: February 07, 2015, 12:28:26 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I watched the NFL Network replay the other night. 

One thing that stuck out at me was just how close, in the 2nd half, that game was teetering on the verge of a Seahawks blowout. I kinda felt in last Sunday but became much more apparent watching the replay.  If Kearse pulls down that 3rd down catch that Butler helped knock away with 1:05 to go in the 3rd, Seattle is on the verge of at least a FG or a debilitating TD.   Pats D really stepped up when they needed to, late in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Seriously, a game of inches.


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Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #365 on: February 07, 2015, 12:33:26 PM »

Offline JSD

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I watched the NFL Network replay the other night. 

One thing that stuck out at me was just how close, in the 2nd half, that game was teetering on the verge of a Seahawks blowout. I kinda felt in last Sunday but became much more apparent watching the replay.  If Kearse pulls down that 3rd down catch that Butler helped knock away with 1:05 to go in the 3rd, Seattle is on the verge of at least a FG or a debilitating TD.   Pats D really stepped up when they needed to, late in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Seriously, a game of inches.

True. But so many missed opportunities by the Pats in the 1st half that would have given them a multi-possession lead going into halftime. And giving up that touchdown with :31 left in the half was bad.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #366 on: February 07, 2015, 12:46:21 PM »

Offline Donoghus

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I watched the NFL Network replay the other night. 

One thing that stuck out at me was just how close, in the 2nd half, that game was teetering on the verge of a Seahawks blowout. I kinda felt in last Sunday but became much more apparent watching the replay.  If Kearse pulls down that 3rd down catch that Butler helped knock away with 1:05 to go in the 3rd, Seattle is on the verge of at least a FG or a debilitating TD.   Pats D really stepped up when they needed to, late in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Seriously, a game of inches.

True. But so many missed opportunities by the Pats in the 1st half that would have given them a multi-possession lead going into halftime. And giving up that touchdown with :31 left in the half was bad.

Oh yeah, if Brady doesn't throw that first INT in the end zone, the dynamic of the game completely changes.  That was seriously one of the worst throws I've seen Brady throw.  Just an idiotic throw.  It was on third down too.  Cost them at least a FG.


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Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #367 on: February 07, 2015, 12:54:56 PM »

Offline Redz

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I watched the NFL Network replay the other night. 

One thing that stuck out at me was just how close, in the 2nd half, that game was teetering on the verge of a Seahawks blowout. I kinda felt in last Sunday but became much more apparent watching the replay.  If Kearse pulls down that 3rd down catch that Butler helped knock away with 1:05 to go in the 3rd, Seattle is on the verge of at least a FG or a debilitating TD.   Pats D really stepped up when they needed to, late in the 3rd and 4th quarters.

Seriously, a game of inches.

True. But so many missed opportunities by the Pats in the 1st half that would have given them a multi-possession lead going into halftime. And giving up that touchdown with :31 left in the half was bad.

Oh yeah, if Brady doesn't throw that first INT in the end zone, the dynamic of the game completely changes.  That was seriously one of the worst throws I've seen Brady throw.  Just an idiotic throw.  It was on third down too.  Cost them at least a FG.

The facemask call at the end of the first was frisky under emphasized on the broadcast too.  It turned a she fg situation into a gutsy touchdown call. 
Yup

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #368 on: February 07, 2015, 09:32:03 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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Here is another question - I've been having debates with my friends

with his 4th ring and 6 trips to the Super Bowl

is Brady now

1. Best athlete in Boston
2. Better than Bird?
3. The Michael Jordan of NFL?
I think you have to consider every one of these questions. And I think after Brady retires, his historical value will increase.

Just a couple random thoughts.

There are some people saying Montana's four out of four super bowls is better then Brady's four out of six. But I think Brady should get credit for getting his team to two additional super bowls that Montana was not able to.

What does this latest super bowl win do to the Manning Brady debate? Does Manning even have a chance in this debate?

I agree 4/6 for Brady is better than 4/4 for Montana. See next post.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #369 on: February 07, 2015, 09:42:02 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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I agree that 4/6 is more impressive than 4/4. At first, it seems like 4/4 is better because you never failed on the biggest stage. However, 4/4 vs 4/6 really means the 4/4 guy failed even earlier, in a less impressive game! In other words, they failed to come up in the clutch when it should have been easier to do so. To get to 6 superbowls means you had to come in clutch in 6 conference championship games, not just 4.


Now quick aside - in reality, especially in football, we probably ascribe too much importance to winning superbowls, since its a team sport with huge rosters, no 2 way players (so offense is only half and defense is only half, both divided by about 14 rotation players), and the playoffs are single elimination, so luck plays a bigger role. So it's hard to really evaluate and separate a QB from the team's performance and luck. But, for the sake of this, let's equate QB "Greatness" with winning. Additionally, the more important the game, the more "greatness" points you accrue.



So back to QB greatness, accepting the premise that team wins in the post season really directly demonstrate QB greatness. Let's say making the playoffs is worth 1 point. Then winning the wild card game should be 2 points. Well there's our first problem; by being WORSE in the regular season, you could actually get an extra game and an extra "Greatness point." But it's clearly better to get a 1st round bye. So a first round bye has to be worth at least the same as a wild card win, because a bye and a WC win both get you to the Division Round. But it's worth a little more too because you got your team some rest. So 3 points for a first round bye. Then 5 points for a division round win. This means you make it to the conference round with either 9 points (for a bye and a Divisional Round Win and making the playoffs) or 8 points (making the playoffs, WC win, Divisional win). Then say 8 points for a conference championship win and getting to the super bowl. 12 points for a superbowl win. Therefore, a superbowl winner from the wild card slot gets 12+8+5+2+1 or 28 points. A superbowl winner from the 1st round bye gets 12+8+5+3+1 or 29 points. Superbowl loser gets 16-17 points. Let's look at some famous and not-so -famous QBs:




It's actually not a bad ranking, considering I made up the scoring BEFORE I saw how the ranking would come out. There's other things you could do, like add more QBs, add points for MVPs, Superbowl MVPs, etc, but that would add more time. I'll try to later. Maybe you could add a modifier for QBR or something to account for yards, TDs, completion percentage, etc. But the rank order is not that bad for "QB Greatness."

Brady comes out awesome. Bradshaw and Montana are studs. Peyton gets pretty docked, and it's clear to see why compared to Brady: lots of playoff appearances, but Brady's won 9 (Nine!) Divisional games, 6 Conference games, and 4 Superbowls to Manning's only 4 division wins (so thats 45 points for brady and 20 for manning), 3 conference games (48 to 24) and 1 superbowl (48 to 12).

This system HATES Marino, but I was actually surprised not that he hadn't won a superbowl (obviously I knew that), but how little playoff success he really had. Not like he was going deep every year like Barkley or Malone; he was just not doing much in the playoffs for how good he was.

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #370 on: February 07, 2015, 09:52:12 PM »

Offline Eja117

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ooohhh ohhhh ohhhhh. Do Jim McMahon and Phil Simms and Hostetler and Tony Esiason and Boomer and Joe Namath and Plunket. And Drew Bledsoe. And Donovan McNabb. Please!

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #371 on: February 07, 2015, 09:57:42 PM »

Offline Fan from VT

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ooohhh ohhhh ohhhhh. Do Jim McMahon and Phil Simms and Hostetler and Tony Esiason and Boomer and Joe Namath and Plunket. And Drew Bledsoe. And Donovan McNabb. Please!

I'll try to add them tomorrow!

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #372 on: February 07, 2015, 10:02:27 PM »

Offline Eja117

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I guess technically Johnny U and Namath played most of their careers before the era of the Super Bowl. There should be some Packer with two rings at the start. Less playoff games back then.

Fran Tarkenton went to 4 Super Bowls I think. Dan Fouts?

Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl

Russel Wilson should be on it

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #373 on: February 07, 2015, 10:43:16 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I guess technically Johnny U and Namath played most of their careers before the era of the Super Bowl. There should be some Packer with two rings at the start. Less playoff games back then.

Fran Tarkenton went to 4 Super Bowls I think. Dan Fouts?

Rex Grossman started a Super Bowl

Russel Wilson should be on it

I think Namath played just about all his career in the Superbowl era.   

Re: Super bowl XLIX Thread
« Reply #374 on: February 07, 2015, 10:55:17 PM »

Offline Cman

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I agree that 4/6 is more impressive than 4/4. At first, it seems like 4/4 is better because you never failed on the biggest stage. However, 4/4 vs 4/6 really means the 4/4 guy failed even earlier, in a less impressive game! In other words, they failed to come up in the clutch when it should have been easier to do so. To get to 6 superbowls means you had to come in clutch in 6 conference championship games, not just 4.

I agree with the premise here, but is there a more direct way to do it?

Other things to consider:
-For much of Montana's career, there was no wild card round, right? So, fewer chances to advance to SB.

-Also, there were, what, 28 teams, not 32? So less competition.

-Of course, the whole salary cap thing.

-It just makes the comparisons difficult (sort of like comparing Bill Russell to current day greats). It's hard to do.

-Can't we just say Montana was the greatest QB of his era. And TB12 is the greatest QB of his era. Enough said. Both are great. Trying to put them up head to head just doesn't make a lot of sense IMHO.
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