Back2Back Victories that will live in INFAMY

[MBunge]

 Furthermore, what makes me laugh is that people say 'that's fine, we don't need a top 5 pick, we'll just draft a franchise guy with our 12th pick and then sign another franchise guy via free agency' as if the 2008 scenario happens on a regular basis, and it's the better road to take- like it's easier than drafting a franchise guy.

Who says that?  Who doesn't want the 5th pick instead of the 12th?  The question is what do you do to get it.  And if you make a list of all the Top 5 picks who NEVER made it to the Finals with their original team, that might help you understand why tanking is fool's gold.

Mike

It depends on what your definition of tanking is. My definition of tanking is that we should be only letting our young guys and assets play. Bass, Prince, Thornton should be shut down. We aren't getting a first round pick for any of them and they are contributing to wins that are only hurting our mathematical chances at getting a better draft pick. I don't care if a line up of Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
James Young
Kelly Olynyk
Sullinger

wins 50 games. They won't though because they are young and inexperienced. A side effect of letting our young, long term players and pieces play is that we should get a top 5 draft pick.

To the bolded part of your post;
The aim of the NBA is win a championship, correct?
If so, which teams and players win championships?
Of the players on those championship teams, what number were they drafted in their respective draft?
Of those teams, how many of them finished outside the bottom 10 teams the season before they drafted that franchise player? (or didn't have another teams lottery pick from an earlier trade)?

Your logic of 'look at all the top 5 picks who weren't on a championship team etc' is incorrect.
You should be saying:

'Looking at the last 25 years of NBA championships, who were the best players on each championship team and what position were they drafted?'

What's the answer to that question?
There is a specific, proven formula to increase your odds of winning NBA championships, and it involves NBA superstars who were once top 5 picks.

You are dodging the question.  How many top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, especially not with the team that drafted them?  This dumb tanking argument is always slanted by the suggestion that "tank=win" when the reality is that NBA teams have been sucking and getting high picks forever without winning titles.

Mike

You're kidding right?
To answer the question- I have no idea how many top 5 picks NEVER make the NBA finals, especially with the team that drafted them. That's not the point, the point is that to even have a chance at winning an NBA title, you need to draft a transcendent player and the records show that these caliber players are taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft.

Do you understand the problem with the logic of your statement?

Now tell me, of the last 25 years of NBA finals teams, which teams made it without a top 5 pick of their own, or without a top 5 pick in general?
THAT is the question you should be asking. Find the answer in the posts above.

Of the top 50 players in NBA history, what was the average position they were picked?

Lol I'm still laughing at your logic- you're completely missing the point to bolster your own argument without realizing it.

Again, 19 out of the last 30 NBA finals teams made the finals with their own top 5 pick. That's not including top 5 picked players that they traded for or signed as a free agent....

And again, how many top 5 picks in that same time frame DID NOT make it to the Finals with their original team?  It's not like that is secret information.  Why are you apparently afraid of it?  Is it because you suspect that most top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, let alone make it with the team who originally picked them?

Again, and I'm not sure why this logic is so hard for you to grasp, the assumption underlying this dumb tanking argument is that "tanking=winning" and that is simply NOT the case.  Teams have been horrible and getting high draft picks because of it for decades and most of them have NEVER made the Finals or even gotten close.

Mike

[MBunge]

And in case anyone is wondering, if you look at the top 5 draft picks from 1985 to 2008, about 15 out of those 120 players ever made it to the Finals with the team that drafted them.  I'm not that great at math but I believe that 15 out of 120 is a failure rate of 87.5%.

Mike

[Quetzalcoatl]

And in case anyone is wondering, if you look at the top 5 draft picks from 1985 to 2008, about 15 out of those 120 players ever made it to the Finals with the team that drafted them.  I'm not that great at math but I believe that 15 out of 120 is a failure rate of 87.5%.

Mike

That's assuming that they only made it once per team. On top of that, many of them were traded for pieces that did end up going to the finals and some of the pieces that were traded ended up taking two teams to the finals on their own.

[Celtics18]

 Furthermore, what makes me laugh is that people say 'that's fine, we don't need a top 5 pick, we'll just draft a franchise guy with our 12th pick and then sign another franchise guy via free agency' as if the 2008 scenario happens on a regular basis, and it's the better road to take- like it's easier than drafting a franchise guy.

Who says that?  Who doesn't want the 5th pick instead of the 12th?  The question is what do you do to get it.  And if you make a list of all the Top 5 picks who NEVER made it to the Finals with their original team, that might help you understand why tanking is fool's gold.

Mike

It depends on what your definition of tanking is. My definition of tanking is that we should be only letting our young guys and assets play. Bass, Prince, Thornton should be shut down. We aren't getting a first round pick for any of them and they are contributing to wins that are only hurting our mathematical chances at getting a better draft pick. I don't care if a line up of Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
James Young
Kelly Olynyk
Sullinger

wins 50 games. They won't though because they are young and inexperienced. A side effect of letting our young, long term players and pieces play is that we should get a top 5 draft pick.

To the bolded part of your post;
The aim of the NBA is win a championship, correct?
If so, which teams and players win championships?
Of the players on those championship teams, what number were they drafted in their respective draft?
Of those teams, how many of them finished outside the bottom 10 teams the season before they drafted that franchise player? (or didn't have another teams lottery pick from an earlier trade)?

Your logic of 'look at all the top 5 picks who weren't on a championship team etc' is incorrect.
You should be saying:

'Looking at the last 25 years of NBA championships, who were the best players on each championship team and what position were they drafted?'

What's the answer to that question?
There is a specific, proven formula to increase your odds of winning NBA championships, and it involves NBA superstars who were once top 5 picks.

You are dodging the question.  How many top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, especially not with the team that drafted them?  This dumb tanking argument is always slanted by the suggestion that "tank=win" when the reality is that NBA teams have been sucking and getting high picks forever without winning titles.

Mike

You're kidding right?
To answer the question- I have no idea how many top 5 picks NEVER make the NBA finals, especially with the team that drafted them. That's not the point, the point is that to even have a chance at winning an NBA title, you need to draft a transcendent player and the records show that these caliber players are taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft.

Do you understand the problem with the logic of your statement?

Now tell me, of the last 25 years of NBA finals teams, which teams made it without a top 5 pick of their own, or without a top 5 pick in general?
THAT is the question you should be asking. Find the answer in the posts above.

Of the top 50 players in NBA history, what was the average position they were picked?

Lol I'm still laughing at your logic- you're completely missing the point to bolster your own argument without realizing it.

Again, 19 out of the last 30 NBA finals teams made the finals with their own top 5 pick. That's not including top 5 picked players that they traded for or signed as a free agent....

Interesting.  By my count it is 16 of the last 30 teams to reach the finals that had their own top five pick as one of their top players.

That's barely over 50%.  I'd hardly call that overwhelming numbers indicating that getting a top five pick is essential to becoming a title contender. 

[chambers]

 Furthermore, what makes me laugh is that people say 'that's fine, we don't need a top 5 pick, we'll just draft a franchise guy with our 12th pick and then sign another franchise guy via free agency' as if the 2008 scenario happens on a regular basis, and it's the better road to take- like it's easier than drafting a franchise guy.

Who says that?  Who doesn't want the 5th pick instead of the 12th?  The question is what do you do to get it.  And if you make a list of all the Top 5 picks who NEVER made it to the Finals with their original team, that might help you understand why tanking is fool's gold.

Mike

It depends on what your definition of tanking is. My definition of tanking is that we should be only letting our young guys and assets play. Bass, Prince, Thornton should be shut down. We aren't getting a first round pick for any of them and they are contributing to wins that are only hurting our mathematical chances at getting a better draft pick. I don't care if a line up of Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
James Young
Kelly Olynyk
Sullinger

wins 50 games. They won't though because they are young and inexperienced. A side effect of letting our young, long term players and pieces play is that we should get a top 5 draft pick.

To the bolded part of your post;
The aim of the NBA is win a championship, correct?
If so, which teams and players win championships?
Of the players on those championship teams, what number were they drafted in their respective draft?
Of those teams, how many of them finished outside the bottom 10 teams the season before they drafted that franchise player? (or didn't have another teams lottery pick from an earlier trade)?

Your logic of 'look at all the top 5 picks who weren't on a championship team etc' is incorrect.
You should be saying:

'Looking at the last 25 years of NBA championships, who were the best players on each championship team and what position were they drafted?'

What's the answer to that question?
There is a specific, proven formula to increase your odds of winning NBA championships, and it involves NBA superstars who were once top 5 picks.

You are dodging the question.  How many top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, especially not with the team that drafted them?  This dumb tanking argument is always slanted by the suggestion that "tank=win" when the reality is that NBA teams have been sucking and getting high picks forever without winning titles.

Mike

You're kidding right?
To answer the question- I have no idea how many top 5 picks NEVER make the NBA finals, especially with the team that drafted them. That's not the point, the point is that to even have a chance at winning an NBA title, you need to draft a transcendent player and the records show that these caliber players are taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft.

Do you understand the problem with the logic of your statement?

Now tell me, of the last 25 years of NBA finals teams, which teams made it without a top 5 pick of their own, or without a top 5 pick in general?
THAT is the question you should be asking. Find the answer in the posts above.

Of the top 50 players in NBA history, what was the average position they were picked?

Lol I'm still laughing at your logic- you're completely missing the point to bolster your own argument without realizing it.

Again, 19 out of the last 30 NBA finals teams made the finals with their own top 5 pick. That's not including top 5 picked players that they traded for or signed as a free agent....

And again, how many top 5 picks in that same time frame DID NOT make it to the Finals with their original team?  It's not like that is secret information.  Why are you apparently afraid of it?  Is it because you suspect that most top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, let alone make it with the team who originally picked them?

Again, and I'm not sure why this logic is so hard for you to grasp, the assumption underlying this dumb tanking argument is that "tanking=winning" and that is simply NOT the case.  Teams have been horrible and getting high draft picks because of it for decades and most of them have NEVER made the Finals or even gotten close.

Mike

Surely you're just trolling right?
You keep reverting to this 'tanking is winning' line like everyone who wants to tank believes that we are winning a championship if we tank. No one is saying that. I am not saying that.
I am saying that if you want to make the NBA finals, the math says that you need a top 5 pick as a bare minimum. From those top 5 picks, the greatest players (and the ones who predominately run the table in NBA championship history) are selected. No one is saying that all top 5 picks are predestined to become NBA championship contenders. We are saying that if you look at the history, the numbers, the evidence- that the greatest players to play the game are almost unequivocally picked in the top 5 picks in their draft.

Your logic has NOTHING to do with winning championships- you're asking a rhetorical and completely irrelevant question. What is the point of playing in the NBA? Is it to win championships? Is that the goal at hand here? If so, we can look at the past 30 years of NBA finals history and see that players picked at a certain position in the NBA draft, tend to dominate NBA finals appearances and results.

If you're trolling me, you've succeeded but I think you've actually trolled yourself.

Lets look at this from another angle which might suit your twisted logic....

How many players picked outside the top 5 in their respective NBA drafts, lead their team to the NBA finals in the last 30 years?

[hwangjini_1]

guys, just a gentle reminder, the midst of the flame wars, that the thread title is "back2back Victories that will live in INFAMY," not "i think you are a stupid poster."

please take it all down a notch and maybe come back to battle, civilly, another day.

[chambers]

 Furthermore, what makes me laugh is that people say 'that's fine, we don't need a top 5 pick, we'll just draft a franchise guy with our 12th pick and then sign another franchise guy via free agency' as if the 2008 scenario happens on a regular basis, and it's the better road to take- like it's easier than drafting a franchise guy.

Who says that?  Who doesn't want the 5th pick instead of the 12th?  The question is what do you do to get it.  And if you make a list of all the Top 5 picks who NEVER made it to the Finals with their original team, that might help you understand why tanking is fool's gold.

Mike

It depends on what your definition of tanking is. My definition of tanking is that we should be only letting our young guys and assets play. Bass, Prince, Thornton should be shut down. We aren't getting a first round pick for any of them and they are contributing to wins that are only hurting our mathematical chances at getting a better draft pick. I don't care if a line up of Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
James Young
Kelly Olynyk
Sullinger

wins 50 games. They won't though because they are young and inexperienced. A side effect of letting our young, long term players and pieces play is that we should get a top 5 draft pick.

To the bolded part of your post;
The aim of the NBA is win a championship, correct?
If so, which teams and players win championships?
Of the players on those championship teams, what number were they drafted in their respective draft?
Of those teams, how many of them finished outside the bottom 10 teams the season before they drafted that franchise player? (or didn't have another teams lottery pick from an earlier trade)?

Your logic of 'look at all the top 5 picks who weren't on a championship team etc' is incorrect.
You should be saying:

'Looking at the last 25 years of NBA championships, who were the best players on each championship team and what position were they drafted?'

What's the answer to that question?
There is a specific, proven formula to increase your odds of winning NBA championships, and it involves NBA superstars who were once top 5 picks.

You are dodging the question.  How many top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, especially not with the team that drafted them?  This dumb tanking argument is always slanted by the suggestion that "tank=win" when the reality is that NBA teams have been sucking and getting high picks forever without winning titles.

Mike

You're kidding right?
To answer the question- I have no idea how many top 5 picks NEVER make the NBA finals, especially with the team that drafted them. That's not the point, the point is that to even have a chance at winning an NBA title, you need to draft a transcendent player and the records show that these caliber players are taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft.

Do you understand the problem with the logic of your statement?

Now tell me, of the last 25 years of NBA finals teams, which teams made it without a top 5 pick of their own, or without a top 5 pick in general?
THAT is the question you should be asking. Find the answer in the posts above.

Of the top 50 players in NBA history, what was the average position they were picked?

Lol I'm still laughing at your logic- you're completely missing the point to bolster your own argument without realizing it.

Again, 19 out of the last 30 NBA finals teams made the finals with their own top 5 pick. That's not including top 5 picked players that they traded for or signed as a free agent....

Interesting.  By my count it is 16 of the last 30 teams to reach the finals that had their own top five pick as one of their top players.

That's barely over 50%.  I'd hardly call that overwhelming numbers indicating that getting a top five pick is essential to becoming a title contender.

 Furthermore, what makes me laugh is that people say 'that's fine, we don't need a top 5 pick, we'll just draft a franchise guy with our 12th pick and then sign another franchise guy via free agency' as if the 2008 scenario happens on a regular basis, and it's the better road to take- like it's easier than drafting a franchise guy.

Who says that?  Who doesn't want the 5th pick instead of the 12th?  The question is what do you do to get it.  And if you make a list of all the Top 5 picks who NEVER made it to the Finals with their original team, that might help you understand why tanking is fool's gold.

Mike

It depends on what your definition of tanking is. My definition of tanking is that we should be only letting our young guys and assets play. Bass, Prince, Thornton should be shut down. We aren't getting a first round pick for any of them and they are contributing to wins that are only hurting our mathematical chances at getting a better draft pick. I don't care if a line up of Marcus Smart
Avery Bradley
James Young
Kelly Olynyk
Sullinger

wins 50 games. They won't though because they are young and inexperienced. A side effect of letting our young, long term players and pieces play is that we should get a top 5 draft pick.

To the bolded part of your post;
The aim of the NBA is win a championship, correct?
If so, which teams and players win championships?
Of the players on those championship teams, what number were they drafted in their respective draft?
Of those teams, how many of them finished outside the bottom 10 teams the season before they drafted that franchise player? (or didn't have another teams lottery pick from an earlier trade)?

Your logic of 'look at all the top 5 picks who weren't on a championship team etc' is incorrect.
You should be saying:

'Looking at the last 25 years of NBA championships, who were the best players on each championship team and what position were they drafted?'

What's the answer to that question?
There is a specific, proven formula to increase your odds of winning NBA championships, and it involves NBA superstars who were once top 5 picks.

You are dodging the question.  How many top 5 picks NEVER make it to the Finals, especially not with the team that drafted them?  This dumb tanking argument is always slanted by the suggestion that "tank=win" when the reality is that NBA teams have been sucking and getting high picks forever without winning titles.

Mike

You're kidding right?
To answer the question- I have no idea how many top 5 picks NEVER make the NBA finals, especially with the team that drafted them. That's not the point, the point is that to even have a chance at winning an NBA title, you need to draft a transcendent player and the records show that these caliber players are taken in the top 5 of the NBA draft.

Do you understand the problem with the logic of your statement?

Now tell me, of the last 25 years of NBA finals teams, which teams made it without a top 5 pick of their own, or without a top 5 pick in general?
THAT is the question you should be asking. Find the answer in the posts above.

Of the top 50 players in NBA history, what was the average position they were picked?

Lol I'm still laughing at your logic- you're completely missing the point to bolster your own argument without realizing it.

Again, 19 out of the last 30 NBA finals teams made the finals with their own top 5 pick. That's not including top 5 picked players that they traded for or signed as a free agent....

Interesting.  By my count it is 16 of the last 30 teams to reach the finals that had their own top five pick as one of their top players.

That's barely over 50%.  I'd hardly call that overwhelming numbers indicating that getting a top five pick is essential to becoming a title contender. 

I did the last 25 years and came up with 20 players:
Hakeem Olajuwon x2
Michael Jordan x6
Scottie Pippen
Tim Duncan x6
David Robinson
Dwayne Wade x4
+Dwight Howard x1
+Lebron James x1
+Anthony Hardaway
+Shaquille Oneal x1
+Kenyon Martin x2
+Gary Payton x1
+Patrick Ewing x1
+Reggie Miller x1
+James Worthy
+Isiah Thomas x1
+Magic Johnson x1
+Russell Westbrook x1
+Kevin Durant
+Allen Iverson x1

last 15 years:

1999   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   New York Knicks    (Duncan, Ewing)
2000   Los Angeles Lakers   4–2   Indiana Pacers   (Reggie Miller)
2001   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Philadelphia 76ers   (Allen Iverson)
2002   Los Angeles Lakers   4–0   New Jersey Nets    (Kenyon Martin)
2003   San Antonio Spurs   4–2   New Jersey Nets    (Duncan, Kenyon Martin)
2004   Los Angeles Lakers   1–4   Detroit Pistons
2005   San Antonio Spurs   4–3   Detroit Pistons    (Duncan)
2006   Dallas Mavericks           2–4   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2007   San Antonio Spurs   4–0   Cleveland Cavaliers (Duncan, Lebron)   
2008   Los Angeles Lakers   2–4   Boston Celtics
2009   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Orlando Magic   (Howard)
2010   Los Angeles Lakers   4–3   Boston Celtics   
2011   Dallas Mavericks    4–2   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2012 Oklahoma City      1–4   Miami Heat   (Durant, Westbrook, Wade)
2013   San Antonio Spurs   3–4   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)
2014   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)

That's 22 players from 30 potential teams that were drafted by their respective teams.
If you make it just 'top 5 picks', then you add:
Gasol x3
Shaq x4
Garnett x2
Tyson Chandler x1
Lebron x 3
Jason Kidd x 2
for another 15 appearances in NBA finals and a grant total of 37 appearances in the last 15 years of NBA finals from top 5 picks.

That's without Kobe in there. If Kobe is drafted under today's rules he's a top 3 pick easily- but we'll leave his 7 appearances out of the total 30 teams.

[chambers]

guys, just a gentle reminder, the midst of the flame wars, that the thread title is "back2back Victories that will live in INFAMY," not "i think you are a stupid poster."

please take it all down a notch and maybe come back to battle, civilly, another day.

fixed I hope
apologies.

[Celtics18]

 if you look at the history, the numbers, the evidence- that the greatest players to play the game are almost unequivocally picked in the top 5 picks in their draft.


Lets look at this from another angle which might suit your twisted logic....

How many players picked outside the top 5 in their respective NBA drafts, lead their team to the NBA finals in the last 30 years?

I haven't compiled a complete list, but here's a start:

Kobe Bryant, Dirk Nowitzki, Paul Pierce, Karl Malone, John Stockton, Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili, Shawn Kemp, Clyde Drexler, Joe Dumars, Larry Bird, Ben Wallace, Jalen Rose, Rajon Rondo, Reggie Miller.

That's fifteen.  There may be some more.  Many of these players have helped lead their teams to multiple finals appearances. 

I always thought that unequivocally meant without exception.  It seems to me that there are enough exceptions to your rule to eliminate it from qualifying as a rule at all.

[Celtics18]

last 15 years:

1999   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   New York Knicks    (Duncan, Ewing)
2000   Los Angeles Lakers   4–2   Indiana Pacers   (Reggie Miller)
2001   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Philadelphia 76ers   (Allen Iverson)
2002   Los Angeles Lakers   4–0   New Jersey Nets    (Kenyon Martin)
2003   San Antonio Spurs   4–2   New Jersey Nets    (Duncan, Kenyon Martin)
2004   Los Angeles Lakers   1–4   Detroit Pistons
2005   San Antonio Spurs   4–3   Detroit Pistons    (Duncan)
2006   Dallas Mavericks           2–4   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2007   San Antonio Spurs   4–0   Cleveland Cavaliers (Duncan, Lebron)   
2008   Los Angeles Lakers   2–4   Boston Celtics
2009   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Orlando Magic   (Howard)
2010   Los Angeles Lakers   4–3   Boston Celtics   
2011   Dallas Mavericks    4–2   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2012 Oklahoma City      1–4   Miami Heat   (Durant, Westbrook, Wade)
2013   San Antonio Spurs   3–4   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)
2014   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)

That's 22 players from 30 potential teams that were drafted by their respective teams.
If you make it just 'top 5 picks', then you add:
Gasol x3
Shaq x4
Garnett x2
Tyson Chandler x1
Lebron x 3
Jason Kidd x 2
for another 15 appearances in NBA finals and a grant total of 37 appearances in the last 15 years of NBA finals from top 5 picks.

That's without Kobe in there. If Kobe is drafted under today's rules he's a top 3 pick easily- but we'll leave his 7 appearances out of the total 30 teams.

You seem to have counted wrong.  You actually have the last 32 NBA finalists listed.  Not the last 30.  Also, I count 20 players in your parentheses, not 22. 

And, Reggie Miller was not drafted in the top five. 

So, by my math that's 19 of the last 32 NBA finalists that featured a top player that the team drafted themselves.  This of course means that 13 of the last 32 (actually 30) teams to reach the NBA finals did not feature a top player that they drafted in the top five.

Actually, since the 2012 Thunder had two players who were drafted by them in the top five, it actually means that my numbers original numbers were correct. 

14 of the last 30 teams to reach the NBA finals did not have a top player that was drafted by that team.

It looks much closer to a 50/50 split to me than an unequivocal rule that to build a title contender you absolutely must draft a star in the top five of the draft. 

[chambers]

last 15 years:

1999   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   New York Knicks    (Duncan, Ewing)
2000   Los Angeles Lakers   4–2   Indiana Pacers   (Reggie Miller)
2001   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Philadelphia 76ers   (Allen Iverson)
2002   Los Angeles Lakers   4–0   New Jersey Nets    (Kenyon Martin)
2003   San Antonio Spurs   4–2   New Jersey Nets    (Duncan, Kenyon Martin)
2004   Los Angeles Lakers   1–4   Detroit Pistons
2005   San Antonio Spurs   4–3   Detroit Pistons    (Duncan)
2006   Dallas Mavericks           2–4   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2007   San Antonio Spurs   4–0   Cleveland Cavaliers (Duncan, Lebron)   
2008   Los Angeles Lakers   2–4   Boston Celtics
2009   Los Angeles Lakers   4–1   Orlando Magic   (Howard)
2010   Los Angeles Lakers   4–3   Boston Celtics   
2011   Dallas Mavericks    4–2   Miami Heat   (Wade)
2012 Oklahoma City      1–4   Miami Heat   (Durant, Westbrook, Wade)
2013   San Antonio Spurs   3–4   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)
2014   San Antonio Spurs   4–1   Miami Heat   (Duncan, Wade)

That's 22 players from 30 potential teams that were drafted by their respective teams.
If you make it just 'top 5 picks', then you add:
Gasol x3
Shaq x4
Garnett x2
Tyson Chandler x1
Lebron x 3
Jason Kidd x 2
for another 15 appearances in NBA finals and a grant total of 37 appearances in the last 15 years of NBA finals from top 5 picks.

That's without Kobe in there. If Kobe is drafted under today's rules he's a top 3 pick easily- but we'll leave his 7 appearances out of the total 30 teams.

You seem to have counted wrong.  You actually have the last 32 NBA finalists listed.  Not the last 30.  Also, I count 20 players in your parentheses, not 22. 

And, Reggie Miller was not drafted in the top five. 

So, by my math that's 19 of the last 32 NBA finalists that featured a top player that the team drafted themselves.  This of course means that 13 of the last 32 (actually 30) teams to reach the NBA finals did not feature a top player that they drafted in the top five.

Actually, since the 2012 Thunder had two players who were drafted by them in the top five, it actually means that my numbers original numbers were correct. 

14 of the last 30 teams to reach the NBA finals did not have a top player that was drafted by that team.

It looks much closer to a 50/50 split to me than an unequivocal rule that to build a title contender you absolutely must draft a star in the top five of the draft.

You're right about my counting and Reggie Miller.

But you don't think that over 50% is significant?
Over 50% of the last 15 years comprised of players that were home grown top 5 picks?

The biggest, most pressing stat to me here is that of the last 25 possible championships, 18 of them were won by top 5 home grown draft picks.

That's 72%. If I started a year early on the 25 year comparison it might be 68%.

Even at 50% people are still trying to deny the importance of top 5 picks and winning championships?
             

[LooseCannon]

Raise your hands if you know what "post hoc ergo propter hoc" means.

[LatterDayCelticsfan]

Two questions. 1. How many of the NBA's franchises have had a top 5 pick in the past 25 years? 2. How many have managed a championship over the past 25 years?  I suspect that you'll find too many franchises have had top 5 picks and not gotten near the championship, for the idea that a top 5 pick being the be all and end all of a title team to hold water. 

[Lucky17]

Raise your hands if you know what "post hoc ergo propter hoc" means.

Cannot help but remember this:

http://youtu.be/HL_vHDjG5Wk

[TheOneTrueRobb]

Because tanking sucks. It didn't get us Duncan, or Oden (bullet dodged there) or Durant. Screw it. Play to win.

I'm not against experimenting with lineups, or giving the young guys more minutes than established vets who might bring in a couple more games in a season. But if the past has taught us anything, it's Always Play To Win.