#DeflateGate (Court of Appeals Reinstates Suspension)

[mahonedog88]

Adam Schefter reporting discipline expected to come soon, this week at some point..."imminent" is the word he used and that the "vibe" he's gotten from speaking to his sources is that it's a foregone conclusion Brady will be suspended for "some length of time"

Schefter is rarely wrong so you can pretty much take this to the bank.  I keep hearing the growing comparison to PEDs...PEDs are considered to be a competitive advantage and a punishment for a first timer is 4 games.  What Brady is technically accused of can also be considered a "competitive advantage" so I don't think this argument is that out of this world.

My final prediction is that it will initially be 4 games, but Brady will appeal, and without definitive evidence, the league will shave off a game...so 3 games, then the Pats have the week 4 bye, and then he's back for week 5.

You trust Schefter after the Dez Bryant Tapes That Weren't? Also, I thought "nobody cared" about PEDs anymore, so we weren't allowed to make that comparison. 

Anyway, predictions: Brady gets 2 games (not because he should, but because the NFL has effectively backed itself into a corner) and a big fine. The Pats get a big fine. The games get appealed, the fines stand.

Fair point about the Dez Bryant tapes, but it's not like every "insider" is 100% right all the time.  Schefter is pretty close to it though.

By "nobody cares about PEDs", I meant the fans.  Fans will get upset because they get caught and then miss games, but the actual act of PEDs usually brings a shrug and a "so what? 90% of the league is most likely on PEDs anyway"...but fans, for whatever reason, absolutely care about the deflation of footballs.

Good attempt at cornering me though, but you failed.

[D.o.s.]

I'm not trying to corner you. Hence the emoji.

[mkogav]

#Prediction

1. The NFL will rule on Tuesday
2. This is the outcome:
  - Brady suspended for 4 games and fined $500K
 - The NE Patriots are fined $500K and a 6th round pick
  - Bill Belichick $50K, just because
3. Brady and his representatives will declare war on Thursday
4. The resulting details and fallout from the real story will dwarf #DeflateGate, #BullyGate, Ray Rice, #SpyGate, #BountyGate, and #Watergate.


Mk

[PhoSita]

Guess -- Brady suspended 2 games, he appeals and it gets reduced to 1.

Pats & Brady get substantial fines, the ball attendants get suspended for a year, and Pats lose a 4th round draft pick.


On 98.5 just now, they made a solid point (don't say THAT often) ---

If the NFL was running a sting to catch the Pats, what does that say about the crime?  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime itself isn't that big a deal, because you're allowing it to happen.

[mef730]

I'm just curious...

What happens if we enter a world where Brady gets suspended for half of the season or the entire season and the Pats finish up as one of the worst five teams (Unlikely, I know, but it's my world and y'all are just living in it.)?  Do the same people calling for Brady's head also call for the Patriots to lose their first-rounder at that points, since the Pats shouldn't be allowed to "benefit" from TB's transgressions?

FWIW, I think he's likely involved.  And I think that precedent would indicate that a fine is appropriate.

Mike

[Moranis]

Guess -- Brady suspended 2 games, he appeals and it gets reduced to 1.

Pats & Brady get substantial fines, the ball attendants get suspended for a year, and Pats lose a 4th round draft pick.


On 98.5 just now, they made a solid point (don't say THAT often) ---

If the NFL was running a sting to catch the Pats, what does that say about the crime?  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime itself isn't that big a deal, because you're allowing it to happen.

I actually think the opposite is true.  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime warrants punishment and the only to catch the crime is to allow it to happen. 

[D.o.s.]

I'm just curious...

What happens if we enter a world where Brady gets suspended for half of the season or the entire season and the Pats finish up as one of the worst five teams (Unlikely, I know, but it's my world and y'all are just living in it.)?  Do the same people calling for Brady's head also call for the Patriots to lose their first-rounder at that points, since the Pats shouldn't be allowed to "benefit" from TB's transgressions?

FWIW, I think he's likely involved.  And I think that precedent would indicate that a fine is appropriate.

Mike

No, I don't think so. I do think that if the Pats lose a pick, it'll probably be around their fourth-rounder. Something that has some value, but isn't totally crippling. If you're interested in sticking it to the pats fans (or playing the "everyone hates us" card), there's nearly no justification for it that stands up to anything. Its also a bad precedent to set for future impropriety, and the NFL does care about that (a little bit) if only because it's something they can get called out on later.

Say what you will about the merits of Bill Simmons, but he was absolutely right when he said that the NFL front office was waiting to hear back from the court of public opinion before they laid down a punishment. That's why (IMO) whatever suspension does happen will get appealed down.

[Donoghus]

I agree with the notion that's been floated around in the media that Rozelle & Tagliabue would've told the club to knock it off rather than try & run a sting operation and catch them in the act. 

The league office could've avoided this whole mess & media crapstorm if it had followed what its predecessors had done.  Instead, these guys are the most reactive professional sports organization I've ever seen.

[PhoSita]

Guess -- Brady suspended 2 games, he appeals and it gets reduced to 1.

Pats & Brady get substantial fines, the ball attendants get suspended for a year, and Pats lose a 4th round draft pick.


On 98.5 just now, they made a solid point (don't say THAT often) ---

If the NFL was running a sting to catch the Pats, what does that say about the crime?  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime itself isn't that big a deal, because you're allowing it to happen.

I actually think the opposite is true.  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime warrants punishment and the only to catch the crime is to allow it to happen.

This really isn't true, though.  That's not how it's done in practice.

Sting operations are most commonly done with things like petty drug busts and prostitution.  There's the Hollywood version, where you have an inside man in a criminal organization, or a conspiracy to rob a bank or something, but in those situations the idea is usually that you can either prevent the worst crimes from being perpetrated (e.g. murders), or you can recover stolen property.

The NFL was apparently willing to allow the vaunted "integrity of the game" to be compromised in a huge playoff game.  So claiming that what they "caught" the Pats doing is so egregious in light of that seems disingenuous.

[Donoghus]

Guess -- Brady suspended 2 games, he appeals and it gets reduced to 1.

Pats & Brady get substantial fines, the ball attendants get suspended for a year, and Pats lose a 4th round draft pick.


On 98.5 just now, they made a solid point (don't say THAT often) ---

If the NFL was running a sting to catch the Pats, what does that say about the crime?  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime itself isn't that big a deal, because you're allowing it to happen.

I actually think the opposite is true.  You don't run a sting unless you think the crime warrants punishment and the only to catch the crime is to allow it to happen.

This really isn't true, though.  That's not how it's done in practice.

Sting operations are most commonly done with things like petty drug busts and prostitution.  There's the Hollywood version, where you have an inside man in a criminal organization, or a conspiracy to rob a bank or something, but in those situations the idea is usually that you can either prevent the worst crimes from being perpetrated (e.g. murders), or you can recover stolen property.

The NFL was apparently willing to allow the vaunted "integrity of the game" to be compromised in a huge playoff game.  So claiming that what they "caught" the Pats doing is so egregious in light of that seems disingenuous.

Yeah, this is my big issue with the NFL.    It's an absolute joke that they would allow something like that to happen in any NFL, nevermind, a conference championship game. 

[PhoSita]

4 games

1st round pick in upcoming draft

4th round pick in following draft

$1 million dollars


That's getting appealed.

The 1st round pick in addition to the suspension is a joke.



My guess, it gets appealed down to 2 games and the loss of the 1st round pick gets reduced to a second.

The pick bothers me more than the suspension.  This is a bigger loss in terms of draft picks than what the Saints suffered.

[mahonedog88]

Wow, that's a MASSIVE punishment...

So either the league has more on this whole situation that they aren't saying, or being caught in a lie is what really cost them

[D.o.s.]

That's a new record for the fine.

But, again, we'll have to see what it actually gets appealed down to.

[JSD]

What!? link please

[BitterJim]

4 games

1st round pick in upcoming draft

4th round pick in following draft

$1 million dollars


That's getting appealed.

The 1st round pick in addition to the suspension is a joke.



My guess, it gets appealed down to 2 games and the loss of the 1st round pick gets reduced to a second.

The pick bothers me more than the suspension.  This is a bigger loss in terms of draft picks than what the Saints suffered.

That's ridiculous.  4th Rounder?  Sure.  $1 million?  Why not.  4 games?  Way too much, but we'll live.  1st Rounder?  lol NOPE.

Screw the NFL, all they're doing is trying to get back on the public's good side after they royally screwed up the Ray Rice case, and the saddest part is that they're succeeding.