Ainge's (likely) draft pick stock

[Kuberski33]

He's got to hit on the Celtics #1 in 15.  Combine that with Smart and Young and there's your nucleus.  You can build around that - at least you hope you can.

[guava_wrench]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them. If Cleveland had a stockpile of picks like ours when they did the Lebron deal, they would be able to fill in all their roster holes.

All of these picks have value. They get traded all the time for other assets. These picks cannot leave in free agency. They are ours. We can even rollover picks, drafting a player for another team this year for a future pick in return.

Regardless of how many picks a team has, there always needs to be some good fortune, like a top free agent signing or a draft jackpot. With the Nets implosion and our own picks over the next few years, we will have opportunities for another Pierce.

One thing for sure -- Danny better have an active scouting team for the next few years. They better be familiar with every possible draftee.

[guava_wrench]

He's got to hit on the Celtics #1 in 15.  Combine that with Smart and Young and there's your nucleus.  You can build around that - at least you hope you can.

We have a few #1s between us and BKN that could be quite sweet.

I have never been particularly high on Smart, but I am starting to be impressed with how he can make a big impact on games.

[guava_wrench]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

I think we either sell some 2nd round picks in 2016 or we will be drafting Euro guys still under contract.

In this draft, the PHI and BOS 2nd round picks will actually be valuable. If you look at the list, we have multiple 2rd round picks from 2 of the worst teams -- Phi and Min, though both had some potentially elite young talent who could improve considerably.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

[inverselock]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

2007: Pick No.5 - Jeff Green.

[MBunge]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

Rondo.
Tony Allen.
Perk.
Big Al.
Delonte.
Sully.
Smart.
Big Baby in the second round.
Heck, E'tuaun Moore is still in the league.

Considering where he's picked the draft, Ainge has an outstanding record of drafting Green/Wright caliber players.

Mike

[Yoki_IsTheName]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

Rondo.
Tony Allen.
Perk.
Big Al.
Delonte.
Sully.
Smart.
Big Baby in the second round.
Heck, E'tuaun Moore is still in the league.

Considering where he's picked the draft, Ainge has an outstanding record of drafting Green/Wright caliber players.

Mike

Melo
Giddens
JJJ


And sorry, Big Al, Smart, Green were not picked in the late rounds. Big Baby is nowhere close to Jeff Green when it comes to being the overall better player, so is Delonte.

I'd give you Rondo and TA though. Sully fell to us because of the bad back, so I don't count him. So that's 2 since 2004 that can only be considered a good role player on a contending team (Rondo is more than that of course) that was picked in the late rounds, the rest are not.

Granted, most picks in the 20's aren't supposed to net Rondo or TA anyway, but that's what I'm afraid off. No team would take our late picks in exchange for their mid one's, where you can get a Big Al. They would definitely not give their lottery pick either. Chances are we are going to end up using those picks to select players, and chances are we get players that we wont need moving forward, basically wasting the picks, and years.

[hwangjini_1]

Unless he lets The Spurs make the selections for us---we will get stuck with a bunch of garbage players---Ainge is HORRIBLE at drafting.

if by HORRIBLE, you mean danny has a far above average draft record and is widely known and respected for his drafting...then yeah. he is really horrible. 

[knuckleballer]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

Rondo.
Tony Allen.
Perk.
Big Al.
Delonte.
Sully.
Smart.
Big Baby in the second round.
Heck, E'tuaun Moore is still in the league.

Considering where he's picked the draft, Ainge has an outstanding record of drafting Green/Wright caliber players.

Mike

Melo
Giddens
JJJ


And sorry, Big Al, Smart, Green were not picked in the late rounds. Big Baby is nowhere close to Jeff Green when it comes to being the overall better player, so is Delonte.

I'd give you Rondo and TA though. Sully fell to us because of the bad back, so I don't count him. So that's 2 since 2004 that can only be considered a good role player on a contending team (Rondo is more than that of course) that was picked in the late rounds, the rest are not.

Granted, most picks in the 20's aren't supposed to net Rondo or TA anyway, but that's what I'm afraid off. No team would take our late picks in exchange for their mid one's, where you can get a Big Al. They would definitely not give their lottery pick either. Chances are we are going to end up using those picks to select players, and chances are we get players that we wont need moving forward, basically wasting the picks, and years.

The only thing I know for sure about what we are going to do with those picks is that we are not going to use them all to select players.  And there's no guarantee those are all going to be late picks.  The Brooklyn picks will likely be pretty good.  Dallas isn't a lock to be a top team or even a playoff team next year as Novitzki and Chandler both have a lot of miles on them and the West is a tough conference.  The Memphis pick is supposedly going to be in 2019, so who knows how that's going to turn out.  A lot of these picks are going to be shipped out one way or another.

It's going to be exciting to see it play out, but frustrating to wait for that time to come.

[hwangjini_1]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

you are aware of the fact that danny drafted green, right?

[GetLucky]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

Rondo.
Tony Allen.
Perk.
Big Al.
Delonte.
Sully.
Smart.
Big Baby in the second round.
Heck, E'tuaun Moore is still in the league.

Considering where he's picked the draft, Ainge has an outstanding record of drafting Green/Wright caliber players.

Mike

Melo
Giddens
JJJ


And sorry, Big Al, Smart, Green were not picked in the late rounds. Big Baby is nowhere close to Jeff Green when it comes to being the overall better player, so is Delonte.

I'd give you Rondo and TA though. Sully fell to us because of the bad back, so I don't count him. So that's 2 since 2004 that can only be considered a good role player on a contending team (Rondo is more than that of course) that was picked in the late rounds, the rest are not.

Granted, most picks in the 20's aren't supposed to net Rondo or TA anyway, but that's what I'm afraid off. No team would take our late picks in exchange for their mid one's, where you can get a Big Al. They would definitely not give their lottery pick either. Chances are we are going to end up using those picks to select players, and chances are we get players that we wont need moving forward, basically wasting the picks, and years.

You can't "not count" any of the good results, just like you can't leave out any of the bad ones. Luck is not a valid reason to discredit Danny Ainge on. The whole sport of basketball is based on the concept of luck. Front office management, coaching, you name it, it all comes down to the lovely unpredictability of human nature. The results that Danny Ainge "gets" are directly related to what 29 other people do after analyzing thousands of assessments of thousands of players by hundreds of different people. Luck is the biggest factor in basketball dynasties, and Ainge is giving himself as many chances as possible to GetLucky (see what I did there   ), so I cannot complain.

[guava_wrench]

Any claims regarding the success of a GM's drafting record needs to include a comparison to the typical success rates at the draft position for each player picked. We might also need to include considerations for draft day trades if a GM used a lot of those.

Just giving a list of good of bad picks is pointless as all GMs have picked guys who outperformed their draft position and guys who were busts.

Without this, people are just essentially insisting on their opinion and grabbing names to support the conclusion they already hold.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

2015: BOS 1st, LAC 1st, PHI 2nd, BOS 2nd, WAS 2nd

2016: BOS 1st, BKN 1st, DAL 1st, CLE 1st, PHI 2nd, MIN 2nd, MIA 2nd, DAL 2nd, CLE 2nd

2017: Best of BOS/BKN 1sts, MIN 2nd, CLE 2nd

2018: BKN 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

2019: MEM 1st, BOS 1st, BOS 2nd

Can i put this on a jersey?

Seriously though, Ainge is going to be one busy guy on draft night the next few years. He can't possibly use all those selections though, so it'll be interesting to see how he spends them.

Thanks for the info.
They have 4 1st round picks in 2016? Obviously they can't use all these picks.
Something's got to give.

But who would trade their All Star player or their top 5 pick for late first round picks? It's not like we have a promising prospect that we can include with those?

Im afraid we're going to have to use all those picks (which in turn could be mediocre players under contract for a few years), or just sell them for cash.

You don't get a superstar through the late picks. You use the picks to get guys like Green and Wright when your team needs them.

Then why cant we just keep those guys?

Knowing Ainge's draft history, the chances of him getting a Jeff Green or Wright quality player is very slim.

Rondo.
Tony Allen.
Perk.
Big Al.
Delonte.
Sully.
Smart.
Big Baby in the second round.
Heck, E'tuaun Moore is still in the league.

Considering where he's picked the draft, Ainge has an outstanding record of drafting Green/Wright caliber players.

Mike

Melo
Giddens
JJJ


And sorry, Big Al, Smart, Green were not picked in the late rounds. Big Baby is nowhere close to Jeff Green when it comes to being the overall better player, so is Delonte.

I'd give you Rondo and TA though. Sully fell to us because of the bad back, so I don't count him. So that's 2 since 2004 that can only be considered a good role player on a contending team (Rondo is more than that of course) that was picked in the late rounds, the rest are not.

Granted, most picks in the 20's aren't supposed to net Rondo or TA anyway, but that's what I'm afraid off. No team would take our late picks in exchange for their mid one's, where you can get a Big Al. They would definitely not give their lottery pick either. Chances are we are going to end up using those picks to select players, and chances are we get players that we wont need moving forward, basically wasting the picks, and years.

You can't "not count" any of the good results, just like you can't leave out any of the bad ones. Luck is not a valid reason to discredit Danny Ainge on. The whole sport of basketball is based on the concept of luck. Front office management, coaching, you name it, it all comes down to the lovely unpredictability of human nature. The results that Danny Ainge "gets" are directly related to what 29 other people do after analyzing thousands of assessments of thousands of players by hundreds of different people. Luck is the biggest factor in basketball dynasties, and Ainge is giving himself as many chances as possible to GetLucky (see what I did there   ), so I cannot complain.

Why cant I? Do you honestly think Sully slips to us if he didnt have the bad back?

All I'm saying is this, we have plenty of late first round picks, there's a very slim chance that those could be moved into something useful and/or turn into a player we can use moving forward. If that's the case, then why not just keep the guys that we traded for those picks, who we know are already good. That's a much safer bet.

[Smokeeye123]

Is the memphis pick unprotected?