What should Danny offer Rondo this off-season?

[LooseCannon]

He could have signed for the extension and been set for life (double set actually since he probably is already set for one life).  He could have included an opt out half way through so that if he didn't like the team the Celtics put together or if he wanted to cash in on improved market value, he would have been able to do that.  Or if he got injured, he would be set.

If you are talking about an early termination option, you can't get one as part of an extension.  You can only get one after the fourth season of a contract.  If you meant a player option, you can only have one option year, so you could only opt out halfway if you signed for one year with with a player option for the second year.

[TheFlex]

If Danny has a deal lined up for another star or two this offseason, I can understand why one might think $16m and up annually would be justified.

Otherwise, I wouldn't go higher than $14m annually.

[Celtics4ever]

12-14 Million is what I feel he is worth, I would laugh if he said he was a max player to me as a GM.

[Moranis]

Busy right now, so if anyone could run the numbers on Rondo's max deal that'd be killer -- always better to use real numbers instead of "the max."

He's eligible for 30% of the cap in his first year of the deal (aka next season), which is ~$17,695,000, with a 7.5% raise on the first year added each season (so he's getting a 1,327,125 raise each season at the most).

I can do the math in a hot minute, but deadlines call.

I already posted them earlier.  A max deal, assuming about a 5% increase in the salary cap, will start near $19 million, with raises near $900k for other teams trying to sign him.  So about 4 years, $82 million.  Someone will offer that, guaranteed.  Celtics can offer significantly more, although I don't think they should need to offer more than an option year for year 5.

The caveat is that's assuming about a 5% increase in the cap, which is in line with expectations if they do not stagger in the revenue from the new TV deal a year early.  The TV deal could raise the cap by about 40% in two years from where it is now.  If they do include some of the new money (which would require negotiations from the players association), the cap could rise up to about 20%, which would greatly alter the landscape, as max deals would be more, but likely a few more teams would have money to spend.

If the cap doesn't include any of the new TV money until 2016, the Celtics should just keep Rondo at the max.  In 2016, his contract would be for $20 million against a cap near $90 million, which would be the equivalent of a $14 million salary against today's $63 million cap.  In 2017, the players will opt out of the CBA and likely get a larger share of revenue split, thus increasing the cap again.  A max deal next year might be a bit of an overpay, but the rest of the years it will be a relative bargain.

who is going to offer 4 years, 82 million for Rondo?

[kozlodoev]

who is going to offer 4 years, 82 million for Rondo?

Not us, I hope.

[Csfan1984]

I say somewhere in the 12-14 mil range seems to be fair for Rondo. I want Rondo to stay but if his asking price is north of 14, we should either walk away or look to sign & trade him.

Edit: btw, say we do give Rondo 14 mil, how much cap room do we have after that?

Best guess if Green opts out and C's renounce Green it's 15-18 million. But add in all the draft picks and it's like 10-13 million. I assume we can stretch Wallace to get it back up to at best 16-19 million in cap space if we pay Rondo 14 million. Yet no point on renouncing Green and keeping Rondo. I feel both their fates are tied together.

[littleteapot]

who is going to offer 4 years, 82 million for Rondo?

The team that gave 50mil to Kobe.

[Yoki_IsTheName]

Danny should show him Kyle Lowry tapes of this season and a big $12,000,000.00 next to it.

Then he should go "If you cant be better than that guy, then you're not worth more than that amount."

[saltlover]

who is going to offer 4 years, 82 million for Rondo?

The team that gave 50mil to Kobe.

Or the one that gave $125 million to Carmelo.

[tstorey_97]

Just a thought here...Agent Bill Duffy will require top dollar for his client from "whomever" wants his services.

Rajon Rondo is a member of the player's union. He will take the highest salary. The range, I suppose is about 5 years $110M. There simply isn't any reason for a player with Rondo's "years of service" to take less.

"What should Danny offer Rondo?" The lowest number he can and still retain Rondo. The stats compiled here look like 5 years over $20M a year. There isn't much wiggle room for Ainge, the CBA slots Rondo's seniority, other teams will make informal offers to set Rondo's market and the chips will fall.

I love this thread because of the "range" of offers us fans are willing to pay Rondo.

At the bottom of the range is "who cares let him go." I will interpret this as....$0

The next offer up from there is "a bus ticket out of town.." If this was say, a Peter Pan Bus from South Station to the Port authority in Manhattan on week day off peak rate it would cost Ainge around $18. (a considerable savings over the max).

From there we move up to "he is not hitting shots lately, punish him" offers of 4 years $56M.

A good number of fans accept that he is worth $17M for four years.

Finally, with "TV inflation" he'll get close to $26M in the last year of five year deal?

Ainge will give Rondo the 5 year max as it "secures the team's asset." What he does after this? Beats the hell out of me.

[Vermont Green]

He could have signed for the extension and been set for life (double set actually since he probably is already set for one life).  He could have included an opt out half way through so that if he didn't like the team the Celtics put together or if he wanted to cash in on improved market value, he would have been able to do that.  Or if he got injured, he would be set.

If you are talking about an early termination option, you can't get one as part of an extension.  You can only get one after the fourth season of a contract.  If you meant a player option, you can only have one option year, so you could only opt out halfway if you signed for one year with with a player option for the second year.

OK, In a way I knew it seemed too sensible to be something actually allowed by the CBA.

Thanks for setting the record straight.

I still think that there are scenarios where Rondo could regret not extending if maximizing $$ is the objective (which it may not be).

[clover]

A great return video?

[mmmmm]

Lowry agreed to 12 million a year deal (4 years at 48 million)

Should Rondo get more than Lowry? Should Rondo get paid more than Parker?

Or should Rondo get "stupid" overpaid like Deron Williams?

Well, Rondo sells more jerseys than any of those guys.  If we remember that this is an entertainment business, then, yeah, he probably should get paid more than Williams, Lowry or Parker.

Jersey sales for teams roughly correlate with team revenues.  It's not much of a stretch to assume it probably roughly correlates with individual marginal impact on revenues.   

Even after having missed a year and then playing on a tanking, rebuilding team, Rondo was the 13th best selling Jersey this year.

He can't get '"stupid" overpaid like Deron Williams", though, because the CBA limits now won't allow that kind of contract.

[mmmmm]

Busy right now, so if anyone could run the numbers on Rondo's max deal that'd be killer -- always better to use real numbers instead of "the max."

He's eligible for 30% of the cap in his first year of the deal (aka next season), which is ~$17,695,000, with a 7.5% raise on the first year added each season (so he's getting a 1,327,125 raise each season at the most).

I can do the math in a hot minute, but deadlines call.

The cap next year is expected to be roughly 66.3M.

So 30% of that is 19.89M with raises of 1.492M. A max deal for Rondo would therefore be:

1. 19.89
2. 21.38
3. 22.87
4. 24.36
5. 25.86
Total of 114.36M

These numbers are a little high.  For archaic reasons, a different cap is used to calculate the 30% number, one that is a little lower than the actual cap.  Obviously it depends on what the cap is, but assuming the new TV deal isn't included for next year's cap, Id bet the correct numbers are about $1 mil per year less.

This^.

Per:  http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q16

They use a different cap calculation to determine the maximum salaries, which is based on 42.14% of projected BRI rather than 44.74%. In 2005 the sides negotiated a different formula for setting the salary cap but not maximum salaries, so the two became decoupled, and this continued in the 2011 agreement. For this reason the maximum salaries are not actually 25%, 30% or 35% of the cap, and instead are a slightly lower amount. For example, even though the salary cap for 2011-12 is $58.044 million and 25% of this amount is $14.511 million, the 0-6 year maximum salary is actually $12,922,194. In addition, for 2012-13 a 5.8% increase in maximum salaries was agreed to, even though the salary cap stayed the same as 2011-12.

When you make the adjustment, Rondo's actually starting salary on a Bird Rights max deal next year would be right around ~18.8M.  So adjust Fafnir's numbers downward accordingly.

I don't like to try to pretend to know what is in Danny's head, but consider that once the TV deal kicks in, that 18.8M (plus raises) will likely be on the order of only ~20-25% of the cap.  In other words, he would be getting paid a similar share of the cap that he is right now.

If I were to make a prediction, Danny will likely sign him to a 5-year max deal.  I can see him taking a slight discount if Danny adds a No Trade clause.

Wyc likes Rondo.  Whether some fans on this blog like his style of game or not, Rondo sells tickets.

[Beat LA]

What should Danny offer Rondo?  A heartfelt apology and his letter of resignation, lol .

On a more serious note, I'm assuming that Danny will low ball Rondo with some ridiculously cheap contract, and then he'll act shocked when Rondo goes elsewhere.  Sigh.