What should Danny offer Rondo this off-season?

[wdleehi]

4 years in the 50-60 million range depending on how the rest of the year shakes out.

I think that is in the fair range. 


Still want to see if Rondo and Smart can co-exist as a starting backcourt. 

[Granath]

A bus ticket out of town.




(kidding! really!)

[saltlover]

Busy right now, so if anyone could run the numbers on Rondo's max deal that'd be killer -- always better to use real numbers instead of "the max."

He's eligible for 30% of the cap in his first year of the deal (aka next season), which is ~$17,695,000, with a 7.5% raise on the first year added each season (so he's getting a 1,327,125 raise each season at the most).

I can do the math in a hot minute, but deadlines call.

The cap next year is expected to be roughly 66.3M.

So 30% of that is 19.89M with raises of 1.492M. A max deal for Rondo would therefore be:

1. 19.89
2. 21.38
3. 22.87
4. 24.36
5. 25.86
Total of 114.36M

These numbers are a little high.  For archaic reasons, a different cap is used to calculate the 30% number, one that is a little lower than the actual cap.  Obviously it depends on what the cap is, but assuming the new TV deal isn't included for next year's cap, Id bet the correct numbers are about $1 mil per year less.

[slamtheking]

I think fair market value for him is 14 a year(if you look around the league at the salaries of other point guards). However, since other teams will probably bid against us I would go as high as 16 a year

If Rondo would have accepted the maximum allowable off season extension, it would have added 3 years for total $44.8 million on to his current $13.9 final year resulting in a total of 4 years at $58.7M.  I guess 4 years and $58.7M was not enough and he decided to risk injury and poor play (diminished value) to go for something better.

At this point, I don't know which will be worse, seeing Rondo walk for nothing or overpaying on a 5 year deal.  That is why I favor trading him.  If he reaches FA, 3 things can happen and two of them are bad (the two bad things being losing him for nothing and over paying).

Rondo would have been foolish to extend this past offseason.  waiting until the coming offseason makes so much more financial sense for him he'd have to fire his agent if he recommended signing.  don't take his not signing as non-loyalty or desire to hit the FA market to cash in.  By waiting, he gets to have a 5-year deal that can be based on being a 9-year vet instead of a 4-year deal as a 8-year vet.  makes a big difference financially and who'd really begrudge him for doing that?

I don't see him going anywhere.  Danny can offer more money and years than anyone else.  he's got more trade chips to use to upgrade the roster this coming offseason as well as a number of contracts expiring to free up $ to sign some good FA's (if they're available). 

As for paying Rondo based on his quality of play so far, I've never felt he's worth the max because, IMHO, a max player can carry a team on his back during the season and playoffs and Rondo can't do that.  Based on his past performance, current performance, recent contracts of comparitive players (not just PGs but recent signing in general like Parsons, Stephenson and Hayward for example) and the expected jump in the salary cap coming up soon, I would feel comfortable paying Rondo between 16-16.5 per year.  Maybe as high as 17.5 but over 18 is getting into S&T territory I feel.

[D.o.s.]

Busy right now, so if anyone could run the numbers on Rondo's max deal that'd be killer -- always better to use real numbers instead of "the max."

He's eligible for 30% of the cap in his first year of the deal (aka next season), which is ~$17,695,000, with a 7.5% raise on the first year added each season (so he's getting a 1,327,125 raise each season at the most).

I can do the math in a hot minute, but deadlines call.

The cap next year is expected to be roughly 66.3M.

So 30% of that is 19.89M with raises of 1.492M. A max deal for Rondo would therefore be:

1. 19.89
2. 21.38
3. 22.87
4. 24.36
5. 25.86
Total of 114.36M

These numbers are a little high.  For archaic reasons, a different cap is used to calculate the 30% number, one that is a little lower than the actual cap.  Obviously it depends on what the cap is, but assuming the new TV deal isn't included for next year's cap, Id bet the correct numbers are about $1 mil per year less.

I think the owners/front office are trying to ease the new TV deal earnings into the cap in portions, rather than one massive increase.

TP for the math, Faf and salt.

So, even with the ~$1 mil. wiggle room, I think we can all agree that this is probably a bit to high for Rondo's current level of play, yes?

[Vermont Green]

Rondo would have been foolish to extend this past offseason.  waiting until the coming offseason makes so much more financial sense for him he'd have to fire his agent if he recommended signing.

I know that is the conventional wisdom or thinking but I actually don't agree that it is that black and white.  Think what kind of contract Rondo will end up with if he reinjures his knee?  Would he have been foolish then for adding on 3 years and around $45M?  How about if he continues to average 6 pts a game (as he has for the last several games) or shoot 30% from the line?

He could have signed for the extension and been set for life (double set actually since he probably is already set for one life).  He could have included an opt out half way through so that if he didn't like the team the Celtics put together or if he wanted to cash in on improved market value, he would have been able to do that.  Or if he got injured, he would be set.

We are probably talking about 1 year (3 year extension or 4 year new contract) probably and maybe 2.  To me, playing this season on a bad team, after a serious knee injury, is a lot of risk to get one more year out of your contract.

With Rondo, I don't think it is about money.  I  think he wants to be a free agent and "play the field"; be in control, choose who he plays with and where he plays.  That is his prerogative but there is plenty of risk with that choice.

[Fafnir]

Owner's are trying to negotiate some sort of mitigation to the salary cap increase, but they'll have to get the players union to agree to it.

The public statements of the new player's union head make it pretty clear they aren't going to agree to anything for free to make the owner's lives easier.

[JohnBoy65]

My first question would be, why would you want to keep him? Honestly? He is not a guy to build around!   I wouldn't offer him anything. Whatever teams pays him he will be over paid. Can't pay a guy 14-17 million a year that is completely useless in the fourth quarter.

This

Was Rondo completely useless in 4th quaters when we were contending? Assuming his performance over 22 games this season is going to remain for his career as opposed to his performance in his 8 prior seasoning is not sound logic in my opinion.

Well he did snag an occasional rebound or set an occasional pic.

He may even have hit a meaningful 4th quarter basket (or two) in his 8 years...

But mostly he's been  AWOL/MIA when the game was actually decided.

Deek

His role hasn't been to win the game. His role was to set up PP or ray or KG. Heck often times he wasn't the main ball handler it was PP

[Kadin]

At this point I'm not convinced I even want him back on the team. He is not a difference maker. More importantly, he's playing like a guy who no longer cares. I doubt he will even sign with this team anyways. Trade him and try to salvage this failed rebuild attempt as much as possible.

[Who]

5 years $100 million

[slamtheking]

Rondo would have been foolish to extend this past offseason.  waiting until the coming offseason makes so much more financial sense for him he'd have to fire his agent if he recommended signing.

I know that is the conventional wisdom or thinking but I actually don't agree that it is that black and white.  Think what kind of contract Rondo will end up with if he reinjures his knee?  Would he have been foolish then for adding on 3 years and around $45M?  How about if he continues to average 6 pts a game (as he has for the last several games) or shoot 30% from the line?

He could have signed for the extension and been set for life (double set actually since he probably is already set for one life).  He could have included an opt out half way through so that if he didn't like the team the Celtics put together or if he wanted to cash in on improved market value, he would have been able to do that.  Or if he got injured, he would be set.

We are probably talking about 1 year (3 year extension or 4 year new contract) probably and maybe 2.  To me, playing this season on a bad team, after a serious knee injury, is a lot of risk to get one more year out of your contract.

With Rondo, I don't think it is about money.  I  think he wants to be a free agent and "play the field"; be in control, choose who he plays with and where he plays.  That is his prerogative but there is plenty of risk with that choice.

I get what you're saying.  I don't agree with it but I get what you're saying.   

An agent's job is to get the most money for his client.  waiting another year is the way to accomplish that.  He's financially set for life already but what professional athlete doesn't try to get as much as they can (home town discounts may mean a player takes a little less money but not much and it's still an awful lot of money to play a game.   
The prospect of injury is something every athlete has to contend with regardless of contract negotiations or not.  it's part of the business.  he's fully recovered and has a reputation for playing through pain so this probably wasn't considered a huge risk by him or his agent.

As for risking a poor/less-than-optimal performance during the season, well, that's in Rondo's hands.  if he doesn't perform up to expectations needed to justify a big payday, he only has himself to blame.  based on his career so far, there was no reason to suspect this was a big gamble for him.  His FT shooting is abysmal and his scoring has been pretty much woeful this year but that's on him to improve it.  if he does, the $ will be there for him for his next contract.

[saltlover]

Owner's are trying to negotiate some sort of mitigation to the salary cap increase, but they'll have to get the players union to agree to it.

The public statements of the new player's union head make it pretty clear they aren't going to agree to anything for free to make the owner's lives easier.

Correct.  And without a significant change to the escrow formula, all the money from an increased cap next year would go straight back to the owners.  No reason for the players to help out without getting something in return.   It's better for them if the cap spikes $30 mil in a season.

[Fafnir]

It's better for them if the cap spikes $30 mil in a season.

Well if the end number of dollars doesn't change its all a distribution issue among the players. The players are going to be asking for more money to do the league a solid or concessions in other areas. Right now the ownership proposals leaked have all been "fair" in that they don't screw the players on the face of it (devils always in the details) but they don't give the players anything other than spreading out the new TV money among more slightly more players due to when their FA contracts come up.

[manl_lui]

I say somewhere in the 12-14 mil range seems to be fair for Rondo. I want Rondo to stay but if his asking price is north of 14, we should either walk away or look to sign & trade him.

Edit: btw, say we do give Rondo 14 mil, how much cap room do we have after that?

[Csfan1984]

If he is still here. 4 years 58 million is the max I would go. Would like 4 years 50 million because that is close to what guys at his position and level are getting. But have to give extra since he has been under paid a while now.