On pace for 27 wins, Just sell baby!

[freshinthehouse]

As for tanking for a better draft pick have we not learned that doesn't work yet? I mean this is like watching congress try to deregulate wall street again like the crash didn't happen 6 years ago?

San Antonio has five championship rings that would say otherwise.

Yeah and it took extreme luck to get Duncan, something the Celtics lack.

But to win a championship you need luck.
You can't win one without an insane amount of luck.
At least with these draft picks and lottery draws we are collecting valuable assets AND putting ourselves in a better mathematical position to get lucky.

It amazes me that some fans would rather finish 10th place in the East, rather than 14th or 15th in the East with a top 6 pick.

Making the lottery isn't just about hoping for that number one pick. It's about the 4th, 5th or 6th  pick and how much value that has versus a 12th or 13th pick after finishing in no man's land.
What would we have accomplished last season if we'd finished 4 spots higher?

Hypothetically if the Knicks do decide to move Carmelo Anthony- are they more likely to want a 4th or 5th pick and Kelly Olynyk?
Or are they more likely to want a 12th pick and Kelly Olynyk?

Mediocrity is the dumbest form of general management in basketball, and Danny Ainge certainly isn't dumb.

TP+  Chambers dropping some science on the non-believers, as he often does.

[Celtics18]

As for tanking for a better draft pick have we not learned that doesn't work yet? I mean this is like watching congress try to deregulate wall street again like the crash didn't happen 6 years ago?

San Antonio has five championship rings that would say otherwise.

Yeah and it took extreme luck to get Duncan, something the Celtics lack.

But to win a championship you need luck.
You can't win one without an insane amount of luck.
At least with these draft picks and lottery draws we are collecting valuable assets AND putting ourselves in a better mathematical position to get lucky.

It amazes me that some fans would rather finish 10th place in the East, rather than 14th or 15th in the East with a top 6 pick.

Making the lottery isn't just about hoping for that number one pick. It's about the 4th, 5th or 6th  pick and how much value that has versus a 12th or 13th pick after finishing in no man's land.
What would we have accomplished last season if we'd finished 4 spots higher?

Hypothetically if the Knicks do decide to move Carmelo Anthony- are they more likely to want a 4th or 5th pick and Kelly Olynyk?
Or are they more likely to want a 12th pick and Kelly Olynyk?

Mediocrity is the dumbest form of general management in basketball, and Danny Ainge certainly isn't dumb.

I've debated this point with you before, and I've made the point that I think a better record this year helps our future more than, say, 4 spots in the draft would. 

Many people are legitimately concerned about the chances of re-signing Rondo this off-season.  It remains my belief that that those chances will be significantly lowered if the current season continues to be an absolute train wreck.  On the other hand, I believe that if we can at least stay in contention for one of the final playoff spots in the East--while this obviously won't mean the current team is in title contention--it might show the kind of promise that could convince Rondo to stick around.

If Rondo (and Jeff Green, for that matter, who is in the same contract position) decides to stick around with these young guys, I feel that there's a better shot that other good players will want to come aboard.

Improvement in the team's record would likely mean better continued improvement from some of our younger players like Sully, Olynyk, Bradley, and Smart.  Of course their improvement would be another step towards a brighter future for our ball club. 

So, yes, I would gladly trade a few spots in the draft for a ten game improvement in our overall record this year. 

You rail against mediocrity, but I challenge your blanket statement about mediocrity being detrimental to running an NBA franchise.  "Mediocrity" comes in many shapes and sizes, and mediocrity with potential for improvement is not necessarily the death knell of a franchise that you so insistently believe it to be.   

[ssspence]

Whatever happens , Jeff Green has convinced me , we need to sign him to an extension

4 year at 13-14 million per season.

Really? All he's done is score a lot on a bad team. He doesn't do much else. He never wins us games. For context, his numbers are comparable to Marcus Thornton.

Let a less disciplined team overpay him. Save that cash for a foundational player.

[GreenWarrior]

...and all of a sudden he's scoring more....and has nothing to do with his contract....nope...

[Birdman]

I predicted 27 before season started in another topic and doubt they win 27 now

[Celtics4ever]

A lot of these games we would not be in, without him, this year.  I do not get how guys will give a Slug like Sullinger a pass, and rip a guy like Green who is at least playing this year.

[SHAQATTACK]

I predicted 27 before season started in another topic and doubt they win 27 now

Same here .

Not expecting more than 24 .....but at the end of the season .....playoff teams sit there stars and the C's might win more game with teams saving bodies for the playoffs .

That's when DA , needs to serious .....tank the team out .....when all hope is gone ....wins are meaningless for non playoff team.

[Ogaju]

LOL did you see all the meaningless wins last season. The tank should start today, not tomorrow. TODAY!!!

[chambers]

I just don't see the point in having a team that makes the 7th or 8th spot in the East just because other teams are poor or facing injury woes.
There is basically zero gained in this scenario- particularly when our only player in the 'star' player conversation is expiring, and our second best player has a player option in a career year.

What the hell does making the playoffs this season accomplish? In all seriousness, what do we gain? Does it make Avery Bradley or Kelly Olynyk a star player all of a sudden? Of course not. I read the argument that it builds confidence and 'develops' our young guys with experience and poise. What a load of hog wash. How many of these current players do you actually think will be on this team when we next compete for a title?
Rondo, Smart and maybe Sullinger/Olynyk? Maybe Young?
If you are going to be a crap team, then do it properly and give yourself the best chance to land a game changing player.
Firstly, If we make the playoffs, our pick is at best, 16th or 17th. Maybe we can move up to 11th or 10th if we combine the Clippers pick with ours- but even then, the talent pool at that level is historically mediocre compared to the talent pool at picks 1 through 5.

Secondly, if the aim is to be a championship team then we need at least one or two top 15 NBA players. The best way to acquire a top 15 player is via a trade or via the draft.
The better our pick, the better our chances at trading for a star player eg Carmelo if he does eventually get sick of NYK, or another Kevin Love situation arises... then the power of that pick (as we saw with Cleveland), is monumental.
Now Cleveland lucked their way into that pick and Kevin Love- but the math and available assets of each team said we were one of the front runners to land him. Eventually, we will come out on top in one of those scenarios and we will acquire a star- by either getting the number one pick when a player like Okafur or Anthony Davis is available, or by attaining a top 15 NBA player with a trade for our young assets AND a high draft pick(s) like Kevin Love.

If we ran the Kevin Love offseason scenario 100 times. How many times does Cleveland win that number one pick?
They win it once. The other 99 times, it's an asset war between the Celtics and the Bulls- and I'd argue that we come out on top. Either way, we are probably favorites to land Kevin Love with the Marcus Smart pick.
Were Minnesota ever picking up the phone if we had the 15th or 16th pick to offer them with Sully or Olynyk?
Hell no.

The fact is that over the last 25 years, NBA championship teams and teams that have made the finals have had one thing in common. At least one top 15 NBA player that they drafted themselves- generally a top 5 player that they drafted themselves. The exception being the Pistons and Nets who were an extreme case against the norm.
Another common feature?
Go back over the past 25 seasons and work it out. Who made the finals that year? Who were their best 3 players?
Off the top of my head I can think of the Pistons and the Nets as exceptions to the rule (Kidd and K Mart in one of the worst Eastern Conferences in the history of the NBA).

Get that pick as high as possible at all reasonable costs. What does that mean this season?
-Trade Jeff Green (unless we think he's key to acquiring Hibbert as a free agent)
-Trade Evan Turner. We signed this chump to a bargain contract, so make something out of it like the Jordan Crawford deal.
-Trade Thornton if you can. His $7 million might be tough to move, but he's shooting really well from deep and looking slightly less crazy than he was at Sacto/Brooklyn.
-Trade Bass. His $6 million should be easy to move for a 2nd round draft pick or two.

These guys above are winning us extra games this season and for what? So they can make more money next season on another team?
Let OUR real assets develop. Give James Young some time when he's healthy. Give all of Thornton and Turner's minutes to Bradley, Smart, Powell and Young.

Solidify our chances at Okafur or Towns or the value in that pick if we do get a top 3 selection.

The good news is that Ainge appears to be doing what he can to get us another good pick. The play of Zeller has probably got him slightly worried about overachieving, but ultimately a few deadline trades like last year should solidify at least a top 6 -8 pick for us.

I really couldn't think of anything worse than finishing 9th or 10th in the East as Rondo comes up for free agency.
At least lock up a top 6 pick so we can go after a star or two to give Rondo some help, and a reason to come back to Boston for 5 years.

[Celtics18]

You sure are passionate about your commitment to seeing this year's team lose as much as possible, chambers.  On some levels I admire your dogged single-mindedness on this issue.

I remain unconvinced, however, that doing our all to try to match or best last season's level of losing would accomplish more for this team's future than winning enough games to make the playoffs--or even come close.

I'll continue to root for improvement for this team from the players as individuals, and more importantly, from the team as a unit.  I think such improvement will yield greater chances for long-term success than another twenty-five win season.

[Celtics18]

There is basically zero gained in this scenario- particularly when our only player in the 'star' player conversation is expiring, and our second best player has a player option in a career year.

This to me is the key point right here.  I would like to have the chance to re-sign our only player in "star" conversation, and our second best player.

I think the chances of that happening if we suffer through another season like last year's will be drastically reduced. 

I also believe the domino effect of losing our best players to free agency could mean that other talented players won't be as likely to have any desire to join the franchise. 

[CoachBo]

I honestly don't see how anyone can be tied down to any one player on this team. all I see with this team is a collection of role players, contracts, and draft picks.

there's not one player on this team worth building around. not Rondo, not Green, not Olynyk, not Sully, not even Smart.

this team needs 3 all star caliber players to be relevant again no matter who is or isn't on this team currently.

It's true that we don't have much that entices other teams. Unfortunately, Rondo blew his knee before Ainge could actually get anything of value for him; now no one in the league is going to wax all hyperbolic about assists and a handful of rebounds from a guy who cannot score the basketball - and they're certainly not stupid enough to pay him the max.

Smart has some value, but he's not a scorer either. Beyond that ...

As I said 18 months ago, welcome to the Pitino Era Part Deux.

[CoachBo]

A lot of these games we would not be in, without him, this year.  I do not get how guys will give a Slug like Sullinger a pass, and rip a guy like Green who is at least playing this year.

Green could go 30-20-10 every night and he'd be getting ripped on here because he was the return for The Great Kendrick Perkins.

Consider the source.

[freshinthehouse]

As I said 18 months ago, welcome to the Pitino Era Part Deux.

Not even close IMO.  In the Pitino era we had a guy running the show that had no sniff how to build an NBA contender.  The dude had zero patience.  Combine that with one of the worst owners in the NBA at the time, and we were hosed.

Now we have a manager that, like him or not, managed to build a championship team in about 5 years without hitting it big in the draft or free agency.  We also now have owners that are considered one of the best ownership groups in the NBA.

[oldtype]

The Celtics have one of the top ownerships and top front offices in the leagues.

Rebuilding takes time. Even a five-year rebuild is ridiculously fast.

We're in year two right now. It's frustrating that there's no end in sight but that's perfectly natural. If it was easy nobody would ever be stuck in rebuilding mode.