Lowe/Simmons on Rondo and the C's

[oldtype]

I guess the point is that Rondo is worth roughly a late first-round to mid-lottery pick swap right now, which I think is about right unfortunately.

[TheFlex]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I hate to even think about it, but Rondo would be good for the Lakers.  He could prevent Kobe from embarrassing himself further and there's nothing quite like Rondo when you have a bunch of scrubs.  He'd have Ed Davis and Jordan Hill shooting 70% like Zeller. 

Of course he would be good for the Lakers , but what do the Lakers offer him more than the C's can ? C's could match the same offer . Kobe isn't going to be the go to guy on a contender, he is just to washed up for that at this point in his career . They don't have any other legit starters on that team, and Julius Randle coming off a broken leg .

1. Money. They could throw the max at Rondo, which we shouldn't max.
2. Major Market, which results in more money from endorsements.

Those are pretty weak and cliche reasons .

Um... no they're not? Nothing indicates Danny thinks Rondo is a max player. If he did we would've have made moves to become a playoff team this season, as I said yesterday.

Everything indicates the Lakers will throw the max at Rondo whether they think he's worth it or not.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it's "weak" or "cliche." Maybe it's "cliche" to you because more and more people are starting to believe this is the reality of the situation and repeating it.

What is it that indicates to you that "the Lakers will throw the max at Rondo whether they think he's worth it or not."?

You're going to have to help me here.  This makes absolutely zero sense.

There's a lot of speculation going on but, in general, the Lakers aren't afraid to open up the pocketbook, they historically attract high-profile free agents, Rondo is a good fit on paper (especially in Byron Scott's "no threes" offense, haha), Rondo and Kobe seem to get along (not a foregone conclusion for either guy).  If I were the Lakers GM, I'd throw the farm at Rondo, unless they're looking to bottom out even harder.

^
LAL can't afford to quibble over $1-3 extra million when Kobe only has 1-2 more years left and they have very few prospects. They need talent now. Rondo is a player that wants to play with Kobe. They won't be stingy with FAs and let Kobe finish his career on multiple lotto teams. Anyone close to max value will be offered the max by the Lakers if they fear they'll lose that player to another team.

I guess I shouldn't have made it seem so factual, as it is only my opinion, but again, nothing indicates this won't be their M.O. heading into the offseason.

[TheFlex]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I hate to even think about it, but Rondo would be good for the Lakers.  He could prevent Kobe from embarrassing himself further and there's nothing quite like Rondo when you have a bunch of scrubs.  He'd have Ed Davis and Jordan Hill shooting 70% like Zeller. 

Of course he would be good for the Lakers , but what do the Lakers offer him more than the C's can ? C's could match the same offer . Kobe isn't going to be the go to guy on a contender, he is just to washed up for that at this point in his career . They don't have any other legit starters on that team, and Julius Randle coming off a broken leg .

1. Money. They could throw the max at Rondo, which we shouldn't max.
2. Major Market, which results in more money from endorsements.

Those are pretty weak and cliche reasons .

Um... no they're not? Nothing indicates Danny thinks Rondo is a max player. If he did we would've have made moves to become a playoff team this season, as I said yesterday.

Everything indicates the Lakers will throw the max at Rondo whether they think he's worth it or not.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it's "weak" or "cliche." Maybe it's "cliche" to you because more and more people are starting to believe this is the reality of the situation and repeating it.

Worth pointing out, though -- the Laker's max is significantly less than ours. It's the Melo Chicago phenomenon.

Not sure Ainge would pay him $17m annually either, but this is a point I didn't consider.

All the more reason for teams to up the ante at the deadline so they can get his Bird rights! 

[BDeCosta26]

Yeah, Lowe is one of the most plugged in people in the media. If he says Rondos worth a pick somewhere in the 12-20 range right now he probably is. Still, I think it's more like a pick in that same area and a middle tier young prospect, someone like a John Henson level young player. Still, dissapointing for a guy who has been so dominant, especially in the playoffs.

However, if his trade value really is that low, and considering the rising cap coming, Ainge may be able to keep Rondo at what will turn out to be a reasonable rate. Danny has purposely built a roster that not only has as much talent as he could reasonably get with the assets available to him, but is more a collection of assets built for flexibility while the team rebuilds. His options are still open as far as trading for a high level player if one becomes available and building on what we have or it could be stripped to only the youngest guys and shoot for a top 3 pick. It will be very interesting to see what happens in the next 12 months. Ainge is going to have to choose a path soon enough.

[rondohondo]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I hate to even think about it, but Rondo would be good for the Lakers.  He could prevent Kobe from embarrassing himself further and there's nothing quite like Rondo when you have a bunch of scrubs.  He'd have Ed Davis and Jordan Hill shooting 70% like Zeller. 

Of course he would be good for the Lakers , but what do the Lakers offer him more than the C's can ? C's could match the same offer . Kobe isn't going to be the go to guy on a contender, he is just to washed up for that at this point in his career . They don't have any other legit starters on that team, and Julius Randle coming off a broken leg .

1. Money. They could throw the max at Rondo, which we shouldn't max.
2. Major Market, which results in more money from endorsements.

Those are pretty weak and cliche reasons .

Um... no they're not? Nothing indicates Danny thinks Rondo is a max player. If he did we would've have made moves to become a playoff team this season, as I said yesterday.

Everything indicates the Lakers will throw the max at Rondo whether they think he's worth it or not.

Just because you don't like it doesn't mean it's "weak" or "cliche." Maybe it's "cliche" to you because more and more people are starting to believe this is the reality of the situation and repeating it.

Worth pointing out, though -- the Laker's max is significantly less than ours. It's the Melo Chicago phenomenon.

I'm fairly sure that I've read that the max we can pay him is roughly $100 million over five years.

What is the max he can get elsewhere, like say, New York or LA?

I think 15 mil a year for 4 years, so 60 mil ? maybe slightly more with annual raises , not sure about it though.

The max for a player with Rondo's experience signing w/out bird rights this season is $17.7 million (with 5% raises).  Depending on how the cap gets raised, it could be a little or a lot higher, without a rise it would be about $76.3 million over 4 years

Boston could offer $79 million over 4 years or $103 million over 5

Disclaimer:  these are my own quick calculations based on http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm

So in that case  we can trump any offer from another team by giving Rondo a 4yr/79 mil contract .

We have to move Wallace and likely Bradley and Turner (depending on how much the salary cap rises next year ) to have a shot of re-signing Rondo, Green, and adding a max contract .
2015 roster
Rondo               20      mil  re-sign
Green               12      mil  re-sign
Smart               3.4   mil
Zellar                2.6   mil
Sully                 2.2   mil
KO                    2.1   mil
Young               1. 7  mil
2 draft picks=  around 5 mil
6 vet min cap hold  =   3 mil

Total 52 mil

*2014 salary cap is 63 mil , but it is supposed to rise next season , which would allow us to offer a max contract if we have this roster I presented .
Total =


PG: Rondo                    / Vet min                                    / Vet min
SG: Smart( trade chip) / Young (trade chip)                    / Vet min                 
SF: Green                   / 2015 1st rd pick (Trade chip)     / Vet min
PF: Sully (trade chip)  / KO  (Trade Chip)                         /  Vet min
 C: Hibbert                 / Zellar (Trade chip)                      / Clips pick

Need to upgrade the bench , but with all our picks it shouldn't be a problem . Sign 3 and D type players . In 2016 you will be able to add an MLE contract to the bench .

Trade chips
Smart
Sully
KO
Young
Zellar
2015 1st rd pick(10-15)
2015 clips pick (20-25)
2016 1st rd pick
Brooklyn picks 2016,2017(swap), 2018
2018 1st rd pick

[Celtics18]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers. 

[clover]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

Normally that would be bad, but Rondo ($12.9 m), Thorton ($9 m), Bynum ($2.9 m) and Bass ($6.9 m) - not mentioning about $4 of contracts we can decline, would be about $31.7 - $35 m off the books this season.

Here are the free agents: LBJ, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kahwi Leonard, Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, Goran Dragic, Dwayne Wade, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Big Al, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Monta Ellis, Paul Millsap, Roy Hibbert, Luol Deng, Brandon Knight, Afflalo, David West, Omer Asik, Thaddeus Young, Wesley Matthews, Tobias Harris, Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverely, Tyson Chandler, Robin Lopez, Jamal Crawford, Mozgov, Gerald Green, Enes Kanter, Gerald Henderson, Paul Pierce, Teletovic, Gary Neal......

I mean if Smart is looking good, we will have lots of cap room and assets for sign and trades.

Also, Green could opt out.

[PickNRoll]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

Normally that would be bad, but Rondo ($12.9 m), Thorton ($9 m), Bynum ($2.9 m) and Bass ($6.9 m) - not mentioning about $4 of contracts we can decline, would be about $31.7 - $35 m off the books this season.

Here are the free agents: LBJ, Kevin Love, LaMarcus Aldridge, Kahwi Leonard, Marc Gasol, Tim Duncan, Goran Dragic, Dwayne Wade, DeAndre Jordan, Brook Lopez, Big Al, Reggie Jackson, Jimmy Butler, Monta Ellis, Paul Millsap, Roy Hibbert, Luol Deng, Brandon Knight, Afflalo, David West, Omer Asik, Thaddeus Young, Wesley Matthews, Tobias Harris, Eric Gordon, Patrick Beverely, Tyson Chandler, Robin Lopez, Jamal Crawford, Mozgov, Gerald Green, Enes Kanter, Gerald Henderson, Paul Pierce, Teletovic, Gary Neal......

I mean if Smart is looking good, we will have lots of cap room and assets for sign and trades.

Also, Green could opt out.

Also remember that Green has had a near-death experience and literally donated a million dollars in one lump sum.  This is a guy that probably can't be bought.

[obnoxiousmime]

Now that Wallace's deal will be a much more palatable one year remaining this offseason, cap space can always be created by dumping him off on another team with the cost of a draft pick or some other asset. The trick is that you still need to convince players to come here. Since the Celtics are bad and Boston isn't an especially desirable location (traditionally) you have to overpay or find guys that are undervalued. The problem is there are going to be a lot of suitors this offseason and the pending cap rise will make teams very willing to spend money now to lock in bargains.

[Lucky17]

Now that Wallace's deal will be a much more palatable one year remaining this offseason, cap space can always be created by dumping him off on another team with the cost of a draft pick or some other asset. The trick is that you still need to convince players to come here. Since the Celtics are bad and Boston isn't an especially desirable location (traditionally) you have to overpay or find guys that are undervalued. The problem is there are going to be a lot of suitors this offseason and the pending cap rise will make teams very willing to spend money now to lock in bargains.

Could also package Wallace's expiring with some combination of rookie-scale contract prospects and draft picks for a big name player.

[Fan from VT]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers.

Bird rights would help us pay Rondo more than another team, but usually doesnt help keep a guy AND add a guy because his hold would still count against the cap even before he is signed, so we'd have to clear the space for a second guy in addition to Rondo's contract. Still need to clear that space and convince a guy to sign.

[TheFlex]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers.

Bird rights would help us pay Rondo more than another team, but usually doesnt help keep a guy AND add a guy because his hold would still count against the cap even before he is signed, so we'd have to clear the space for a second guy in addition to Rondo's contract. Still need to clear that space and convince a guy to sign.

Additionally, while an extra year of financial security may comfort Rondo, in terms of annual finances this means little to him. I personally doubt the Celtics will offer a higher yearly salary than other potential suitors who don't own his Bird rights will (NYK, LAL).

[Celtics18]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers.

Bird rights would help us pay Rondo more than another team, but usually doesnt help keep a guy AND add a guy because his hold would still count against the cap even before he is signed, so we'd have to clear the space for a second guy in addition to Rondo's contract. Still need to clear that space and convince a guy to sign.

I thought signing a guy using his Bird rights allowed a team to exceed the cap.  In that instance, couldn't we technically sign another player previously to re-signing Rondo, and then sign Rondo and go over the cap?

I thought that was the whole point of Bird's rights.

[Eddie20]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers.

Bird rights would help us pay Rondo more than another team, but usually doesnt help keep a guy AND add a guy because his hold would still count against the cap even before he is signed, so we'd have to clear the space for a second guy in addition to Rondo's contract. Still need to clear that space and convince a guy to sign.

I thought signing a guy using his Bird rights allowed a team to exceed the cap.  In that instance, couldn't we technically sign another player previously to re-signing Rondo, and then sign Rondo and go over the cap?

I thought that was the whole point of Bird's rights.

No, you can't. Rondo's hold counts against the cap until he's signed or renounced.

[obnoxiousmime]

I'm pretty convinced the most likely scenario here is Rondo reaching free agency and signing elsewhere.  Boston gets nothing.  That's how this is panning out. 

Someone in better position to win will overpay Rondo and that's not going to be Boston.

so where is Rondo going to sign?

NYK and LAL are the only realistic options.  is a 37 yr old kobe going to give him a better chance to win? or a NYK triangle offense with Melo and nothing else?

C's have much better young prospects, have the ability to clear cap space to put a max next to him , and tons of draft picks to add to that

I'm not going to sit here and be one of those fans who says "Boston can't sign free agents".  Truthfully, we don't know... since I dont' think there has ever been a time in our history that we've actually had the max cap space to sign a free agent.  So who knows. 

But traditionally, Boston hasn't been a player in free agency (which again... is because we never have cap space).   So even if the Knicks/Lakers look down in the dumps now, they are still two premiere big market franchises with more cap space than us this summer and thus are in a better position to add Rondo + another star to make it a viable situation.

Both the Knicks/Lakers have incompetent management as well... so the idea of them dumping a ton of money into an overrated PG is more plausible than Boston doing it with a serviceable young already waiting in the wings (Smart).

Most likely scenario is Rondo signing elsewhere.

I think you are forgetting that we have Rondo's Bird rights, which means that we are actually in a significantly better position to be able to afford to add Rondo and another star than either the Knicks or the Lakers.

Bird rights would help us pay Rondo more than another team, but usually doesnt help keep a guy AND add a guy because his hold would still count against the cap even before he is signed, so we'd have to clear the space for a second guy in addition to Rondo's contract. Still need to clear that space and convince a guy to sign.

I thought signing a guy using his Bird rights allowed a team to exceed the cap.  In that instance, couldn't we technically sign another player previously to re-signing Rondo, and then sign Rondo and go over the cap?

I thought that was the whole point of Bird's rights.

No, otherwise you could have a team of three stars whose contracts expire the same year, then sign three more stars on top of them. Basically even though Rondo's contract is expiring, that space isn't ours to use freely until he actually signs with another team. Until he signs there's a "cap hold" on the cap space which we cannot use unless we renounce his bird rights, then he becomes a regular free agent to us like anybody else and we wouldn't be able to go over the cap to sign him.

Thus the trick is to add stars into your cap space when you still have a guy making low money or on his rookie deal. Then you can go over the cap to extend your own guy.