Looks like Giannis is starting to live up to the hype

[jyyzzoel]

It's possible to lament the Celtics not drafting Giannis and still think Olynyk is/will be a solid player. However, if the objective is to get the most valuable/best player you can, as of now it seems Ainge failed. Giannis right now has much more value than Olynyk. Giannis is a guy who could possibly be a centerpiece in a deal for a star, while Olynyk is just a nice role player.

If the objective is "just come away with something" then of course Ainge succeeded by taking the safer pick Olynyk. He is probably not going to be a bust, but he will also not be a star.

It's too bad, because Giannis would have accelerated the rebuild and not only because he has more talent. He has more value than Olynyk as a trade commodity and doesn't play the same position as Sullinger. Green could have been dealt this season and you'd have an obvious replacement there. It's evident now that Olynyk and Sullinger playing together just creates too large of a defensive hole to be sustainable. That doesn't mean either loses value, just that they lose value to us because the mix is untenable.

BTW, I'm not including James Young in this conversation because 1) he was drafted the next year, we don't know what Ainge would have done if Giannis was already on the roster - it's possible he doesn't even draft Young and 2) it's too early to tell whether Young will be any good.

If Milwaukee offered Giannis for Olynyk right now, would anybody turn that down? If not then Ainge simply didn't get the best player. Not bashing him because I actually support Ainge, but the bottom line is he made the wrong decision here.

Gianni's played in Greece an unknown basketball league so far the only thing that's going for him is his youth and the fact he's still growing if you're lament Anige for not taking him then why aren't you bashing all the other gms that passed him it was a weak draft after all and I don't think trade including Gianni's for love would be that competitive

after realising how good giannis can be i was pretty upset.  after thinking about it though i can't blame ainge. how many players come into the league with freakish measurements or absurd athleticism and end up bench players or even completely fall out of the league?

further more before the draft giannis was playing in a really crappy league and wasn't dominating.

with all that to ponder wouldn't you say that more likely than not any player that comes into the league with that kind of resume - and there have been many - would seem to fail at becoming an incredible nba player?

giannis is an exception. he is a very rare case. he goes against the law of averages in a big way. rudy gobert has the greatest wingspan to ever be recorded in the modern game. is he a franchise player. you can say, yeah but giannis is young, but then do you think going back in time, at 18 years old gobert would be dominating a really crap league like giannis wasn't?

kelly olynyk was a much more sure and solid choice for ainge to make and i can't blame him for that since everything before the draft seemed to indicate the giannis' likelihood of becoming the player he is developing into was very, very low.

now if you really want to get angry and blame ainge for making a stupid choice that even at the time seemed stupid, blame him for picking jajuan johnson over jimmy butler  but alas, that is a conversation for another thread.

[obnoxiousmime]

What do other GMs have to do with it? All I'm saying is Ainge did not get the best player. I happen to like Olynyk, but I think Giannis will be better when all is said and done (in fact he might already be better). Why is it considered bashing to say that Ainge missed this opportunity? I never said Giannis was a can't miss or that the decision was an obvious one.

I think a Giannis, Sullinger, and a future pick proposal would have been very competitive. Or, a Giannis + our 6th overall pick and salary filler would have been very difficult for Minnesota to turn down. Remember, at the time they had no evidence any better offers would materialize. That would have been a chance to get two potential young stars. I'm not saying I would have definitely made that trade from a Celtics viewpoint but Minnesota definitely would have considered it. They needed something back that they could sell to their fans, and the Greek Freak who already had a lot of buzz his rookie year would have qualified. Sullinger and Olynyk clearly did not because obviously Love would be in a Celtics uniform now if they did.

[guava_wrench]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

[BballTim]

It's possible to lament the Celtics not drafting Giannis and still think Olynyk is/will be a solid player. However, if the objective is to get the most valuable/best player you can, as of now it seems Ainge failed. Giannis right now has much more value than Olynyk. Giannis is a guy who could possibly be a centerpiece in a deal for a star, while Olynyk is just a nice role player.

If the objective is "just come away with something" then of course Ainge succeeded by taking the safer pick Olynyk. He is probably not going to be a bust, but he will also not be a star.

It's too bad, because Giannis would have accelerated the rebuild and not only because he has more talent. He has more value than Olynyk as a trade commodity and doesn't play the same position as Sullinger. Green could have been dealt this season and you'd have an obvious replacement there. It's evident now that Olynyk and Sullinger playing together just creates too large of a defensive hole to be sustainable. That doesn't mean either loses value, just that they lose value to us because the mix is untenable.

BTW, I'm not including James Young in this conversation because 1) he was drafted the next year, we don't know what Ainge would have done if Giannis was already on the roster - it's possible he doesn't even draft Young and 2) it's too early to tell whether Young will be any good.

If Milwaukee offered Giannis for Olynyk right now, would anybody turn that down? If not then Ainge simply didn't get the best player. Not bashing him because I actually support Ainge, but the bottom line is he made the wrong decision here.

  If the method of evaluating Danny's drafting is "was there any player drafted after Danny's pick that turned out to be better than the player Danny drafted" then he's probably failed in most of his choices. There are probably "high ceiling guys" available every time Danny drafts. In this case, you can't even make a convincing argument that most people knew that Giannis was the obvious choice and Danny blew it because if that was the case Giannis would have been in the lottery.

[Celtics18]

Happy 20th, Giannis!!

[greece66]

Arggghhhh
'Nuff with Giannis.
He's a fantabulous player, we did not draft him, no, it's not Danny's fault, but I still hate him for this, watching a Greek play for my favourite team would have been so cool.
Just one last word for Danny from the Athens Celtics community.
When Kostas gets drafted, before making any silly decisions, just ask yourself:

[obnoxiousmime]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

I understand that, that's why I'm not being so harsh. Is saying I "lament" that we didn't draft Giannis being overly critical? I should be able to say Ainge should have drafted Giannis and not come off as bashing him.

Understandably there are many unreasonable posts saying Ainge should have drafted any player that came after that ended up being better than whomever he picked. However, I think in this particular draft it is a fair complaint because the picks were so close together. In fact there were even reports Ainge liked Giannis (which I don't think were just smokescreens) so he definitely was on the radar at 13 or 15 for the Celts. Ainge simply decided Olynyk was the better pick and even traded up for him.

I don't really buy the "let's wait and see" argument at this point. Giannis is a lot younger than Olynyk and that has to be part of the consideration. Sure, nobody can say for SURE who will be the better pro in 3 years but I'd feel confident saying it's definitely trending better for Giannis.

I like Olynyk and I think he'll be a solid rotation player. I'm not confident he will ever be a starter on a great team due to his defensive limitations. With Giannis the ceiling is just so much higher.

[greece66]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

I understand that, that's why I'm not being so harsh. Is saying I "lament" that we didn't draft Giannis being overly critical? I should be able to say Ainge should have drafted Giannis and not come off as bashing him.

Understandably there are many unreasonable posts saying Ainge should have drafted any player that came after that ended up being better than whomever he picked. However, I think in this particular draft it is a fair complaint because the picks were so close together. In fact there were even reports Ainge liked Giannis (which I don't think were just smokescreens) so he definitely was on the radar at 13 or 15 for the Celts. Ainge simply decided Olynyk was the better pick and even traded up for him.

I don't really buy the "let's wait and see" argument at this point. Giannis is a lot younger than Olynyk and that has to be part of the consideration. Sure, nobody can say for SURE who will be the better pro in 3 years but I'd feel confident saying it's definitely trending better for Giannis.

I like Olynyk and I think he'll be a solid rotation player. I'm not confident he will ever be a starter on a great team due to his defensive limitations. With Giannis the ceiling is just so much higher.

At this point, the case that Giannis>Olynyk is so dead obvious that the conversation is only kept alive in the fringes of the Celtics forum.
I mean, come on guys, if you are not yet convinced, do yourself a favour and watch a game or two of Milwaukee. Not the highlights but the whole game. This is the body God designed to play perfect basketball.

[Rondo9]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

I understand that, that's why I'm not being so harsh. Is saying I "lament" that we didn't draft Giannis being overly critical? I should be able to say Ainge should have drafted Giannis and not come off as bashing him.

Understandably there are many unreasonable posts saying Ainge should have drafted any player that came after that ended up being better than whomever he picked. However, I think in this particular draft it is a fair complaint because the picks were so close together. In fact there were even reports Ainge liked Giannis (which I don't think were just smokescreens) so he definitely was on the radar at 13 or 15 for the Celts. Ainge simply decided Olynyk was the better pick and even traded up for him.

I don't really buy the "let's wait and see" argument at this point. Giannis is a lot younger than Olynyk and that has to be part of the consideration. Sure, nobody can say for SURE who will be the better pro in 3 years but I'd feel confident saying it's definitely trending better for Giannis.

I like Olynyk and I think he'll be a solid rotation player. I'm not confident he will ever be a starter on a great team due to his defensive limitations. With Giannis the ceiling is just so much higher.

But Giannis hasn't shown anything with a semblance of skill. Sure he may be really good, but right now I'm not sure if he's going to be as versatile on offense like Olynyk. Giannis is raw enough for the wait and see argument to work.

[Rondo9]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

I understand that, that's why I'm not being so harsh. Is saying I "lament" that we didn't draft Giannis being overly critical? I should be able to say Ainge should have drafted Giannis and not come off as bashing him.

Understandably there are many unreasonable posts saying Ainge should have drafted any player that came after that ended up being better than whomever he picked. However, I think in this particular draft it is a fair complaint because the picks were so close together. In fact there were even reports Ainge liked Giannis (which I don't think were just smokescreens) so he definitely was on the radar at 13 or 15 for the Celts. Ainge simply decided Olynyk was the better pick and even traded up for him.

I don't really buy the "let's wait and see" argument at this point. Giannis is a lot younger than Olynyk and that has to be part of the consideration. Sure, nobody can say for SURE who will be the better pro in 3 years but I'd feel confident saying it's definitely trending better for Giannis.

I like Olynyk and I think he'll be a solid rotation player. I'm not confident he will ever be a starter on a great team due to his defensive limitations. With Giannis the ceiling is just so much higher.

At this point, the case that Giannis>Olynyk is so dead obvious that the conversation is only kept alive in the fringes of the Celtics forum.
I mean, come on guys, if you are not yet convinced, do yourself a favour and watch a game or two of Milwaukee. Not the highlights but the whole game. This is the body God designed to play perfect basketball.

Personally Kevin Durant is a gift from God to Basketball.

[hwangjini_1]

It does not make much sense to evaluate a GM or team's drafting skill by any individual pick. There is too much randomness. You need to evaluate a large sample of picks and compare them to expectations at that position in the draft. You can also compare to other players available at that spot for each pick -- though this runs of the danger of the naive 'why did he pick X instead of Y argument' that ignores all the failures the GM avoided.

Part of the problem with sports talk is the many fans who harp on the player they wish their team drafted that turned out well and ignore all the guys they wanted to draft who turned out to be bums. Even worse, we can see fans who refuse to accept that certain players are good because they want to justify their initial dislike of the player.

Will Giannis turn out to be a much better player than Olynyk? Maybe. Neither player is performing like anything special right now. Perhaps Giannis will develop into just that. Let's wait and see. One thing for sure -- Giannis still can't shoot from deep, much like Rondo (though the extra height would have been nice compared to the similar Smart).

I understand that, that's why I'm not being so harsh. Is saying I "lament" that we didn't draft Giannis being overly critical? I should be able to say Ainge should have drafted Giannis and not come off as bashing him.

Understandably there are many unreasonable posts saying Ainge should have drafted any player that came after that ended up being better than whomever he picked. However, I think in this particular draft it is a fair complaint because the picks were so close together. In fact there were even reports Ainge liked Giannis (which I don't think were just smokescreens) so he definitely was on the radar at 13 or 15 for the Celts. Ainge simply decided Olynyk was the better pick and even traded up for him.

I don't really buy the "let's wait and see" argument at this point. Giannis is a lot younger than Olynyk and that has to be part of the consideration. Sure, nobody can say for SURE who will be the better pro in 3 years but I'd feel confident saying it's definitely trending better for Giannis.

I like Olynyk and I think he'll be a solid rotation player. I'm not confident he will ever be a starter on a great team due to his defensive limitations. With Giannis the ceiling is just so much higher.

we disagree, but i like your points and it makes for a better thread. thanks.

and i agree, the time to really begin assessing performance is 3 years from now. so which of us will bump this thread in 3 years? 

[Beat LA]

For anyone who thinks that the Mavs regret trading KO , I saw this article on Giannis' espn page -

Why didn't the Mavs draft the 'Greek Freak'?

MILWAUKEE -- Pinching pennies in preparation of their failed pursuit of Dwight Howard in free agency prevented the Dallas Mavericks from drafting Giannis Antetokounmpo.

That's not a new revelation. Mavs owner Mark Cuban acknowledged last year that Dallas president of basketball operations Donnie Nelson wanted to pick the "Greek Freak" with the 13th overall pick, only to have Cuban decide to trade down to save salary-cap space.

It's just particularly topical this week, when the Mavs have two meetings with Antetokounmpo's Milwaukee Bucks, the first of which is Wednesday night at the Bradley Center.

The 6-foot-11, multi-skilled Antetokounmpo appears to be blossoming into a star, averaging 12.0 points, 5.9 rebounds and 2.1 assists as a 19-year-old for the surprising Bucks this season.

"He's making us look bad for sticking to our plan," Cuban said Tuesday evening. "That was Donnie. [Drafting Antetokounmpo] is what Donnie wanted to do and I said we should stick to the plan.

"The whole point is that I wanted to stick to the plan and Donnie was like, 'This guy's going to be good. I'll risk everything that he's going to be good.' I said, 'I believe you, Donnie.'

"But still, what if all of the sudden we find out that so-and-so is dying to come to the Mavs and now you don't have the cap room? That's why we put together a plan, and our consolation wasn't too bad."

The Mavs' immediate consolation prize, after trading down twice, was taking point guard Shane Larkin with the 18th overall pick and saving a little less than $400,000 in cap space.

The Mavs, of course, weren't able to convince Howard to come to Dallas. The reality is that they still would have needed to do some cap tinkering to make room to give Howard a max contract.

Larkin was part of the package that the Mavs shipped to New York to bring back Tyson Chandler, a center who will have an All-Star argument if he keeps performing at the level he has so far this season. But let's not act as if Larkin was a centerpiece in that trade. He was a throw-in.

Antetokounmpo would have been a foundation piece for the Mavs' future, something Dallas hasn't found in the draft in more than a decade.

Dwight Howard didn't want to sign with Dallas?



Notice how there's not one mention of our billy goat who looks like he needs to be put out to pasture (especially on defense).  Sigh.  This is taking Michael Smith over Tim Hardaway all over again.  Ugh.

[greece66]

Nice find Beat LA!

[mgent]

First time I've looked in this thread, but no I don't think he's lived up to the hype.  He's been hyped as a 20-7-3 player on 50%+ shooting.  He has been hyped as a future superstar.  No where near that level currently.

[ge]

First time I've looked in this thread, but no I don't think he's lived up to the hype.  He's been hyped as a 20-7-3 player on 50%+ shooting.  He has been hyped as a future superstar.  No where near that level currently.

Hyped ? Most people (fans/GMs/presidents) didn't even know him before the draft and the majority of this forum still only know him from the highlights. Others, that have been following his progress long enough, know that he might not be a 20ppg scorer but he will be an all around point forward that can also run the floor and play defense with the best.