Author Topic: Stevens seems to like having at least two starters in the game at all times  (Read 835 times)

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Offline LooseCannon

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Some people have commented about the Celtics rotations so I looked at how Stevens has been using his players.  It seems that Stevens prefers to have at least two of his starters in the game at all times.  His preference seems to be to have Rondo and Sullinger in there together while Bradley, Olynyk, and Green sit.  (I only looked at the first half of games because I was using the plus/minus game charts on basketball-reference.com and there is something broken that causes lines to wrap for the Celtics.)

I then looked at the games played on November 14.  With twenty teams in action, the Celtics, Cavs, and Hawks seemed to be the only teams that didn't have a stretch in the first half where at least four starters were sitting on the bench together.  It may surprise some people to see how often teams roll out five back-ups on the floor together.

The Celtics have four players averaging at least 30 minutes per game.  Since there are 91 players with five or more games played who are averaging 30+ mpg, that means that there are about three such players per team and the Celtics are above average.  The team is not really pushing down the minutes of its top players compared to other teams.

So, if Stevens' rotations look weird to you, it's probably because he is manipulating playing time to keep two starters on the floor at all times, a stark contrast to Doc Rivers bringing out the all-bench line-up that many posters here seemed to hate.
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Offline mmmmm

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Actually, this is NOT in stark contrast to what Doc did during the 'Big 3' era.  Doc typically made a point of keeping Ray, Rajon or Paul on the floor with the bench as much as possible.  That's one of the reasons Ray was typically our total-minutes leader in those first few years (followed closely by Rondo).

Also, this has been an evolving point for Stevens.  The critical runs made by both Dallas and Toronto  (to stretch a lead from 8 points to 19 points in the former, and to get back into the game in the latter) were both made when he essentially subbed out all of the starters.   An examination of the game logs shows this to be the case very clearly.  In each of those cases, the subs started with Green & Sully going to the bench first, but then the other starters going to the bench soon after.  And each time the game got out of hand quickly.

And again, during the OKC game, it was upon the substitutions to bring in the bench when the game turned south.

The most killer moments have been during subs at the end of the first period and then also near the end of the 3rd period.

Right now, I think there is a huge drop-off in performance between our starters and maybe one or two others (Bass & Zeller) and the rest of our roster.  And this really shows in the NetRatings (plus/minus) numbers for the roster.   Those two and the 5 starters are either positive or only mildly negative for the season.  The rest of our bench are mostly deeply negative (except for Young, but his minutes have been tiny).  Turner, Pressey, Wallace and yes, even Smart, all have deeply negative ratings so far.

So it makes sense for Stevens to try to move to a more gradual substitution pattern that overlaps the starters with the bench, but ultimately, we need better performances out of our bench.
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Offline LooseCannon

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Actually, this is NOT in stark contrast to what Doc did during the 'Big 3' era.  Doc typically made a point of keeping Ray, Rajon or Paul on the floor with the bench as much as possible.  That's one of the reasons Ray was typically our total-minutes leader in those first few years (followed closely by Rondo).

It's pretty normal for teams to put a lineup of one starter and four bench players on the floor on the middle of the first half.  Doc would often keep Ray Allen in while resting the other four starters.  My recollection is that he didn't typically keep two out of Allen/Rondo/Pierce on the floor while resting the other three three starters, which is what would fit how Stevens seems to be managing his rotations.  I think there were some posters who thought that Doc should have managed his rotations more like that.
"The worst thing that ever happened in sports was sports radio, and the internet is sports radio on steroids with lower IQs.” -- Brian Burke, former Toronto Maple Leafs senior adviser, at the 2013 MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference