Has Rondo's shooting regressed?

[chambers]

The thing with Rondo is he doesn't necessarily look to create a shot for himself.
He looks for the best scoring option or what he thinks will turn out the most likely chance of scoring a basket.

Now in certain games, if he's feeling it, and has realized he's feeling it, he'll take it upon himself to ride that scoring wave.

Unfortunately that only seems to be when his adrenaline is at an all time high and he's in a shooting groove.

His jumpshot hasn't looked the best, and he's definitely avoided taking open shots at stages when he probably should have taken them- but he is basically always looking for the best shot for his team. Lebron went from being a Durant type scorer, to a hybrid Rondo-Durant type scorer. ie when he wants to score, he can- but most of the time he looks for the best shot for his team. Even Lebron's team mates Kyrie and Love still look for their shot first, or the best way they can score, before looking for a better shot. After playing with Lebron that will change and they will be a monster of a team ala the Spurs. It's the whole reason they hired Blatt, and the reason Danny hired Stevens. Making the extra pass leads to championships- and Rondo is one of the best in the world at finding the best possible shot for his team.

So to answer the OP's question- I'd say it's too early to tell yet at only 3 games in.
I don't really care though because he's still doing what he's best at- and that's finding open team members and making them better, getting the highest percentage shot for our team.

[BballTim]

  Two things worth pointing out in a thread like this: One, it's too soon to tell if Rondo's shooting has improved or "regressed". Coming back from a knee injury affected his shot last year, and a broken hand/no exhibition season hasn't helped this year. You should probably wait most of the way through the season to look at this question. Two, and more importantly, if his fg% is lower this year than it was when he was healthy it's *not* proof that his shot has "regressed". This is a fairly cringe-worthy subject, as many of the posters in this thread seem to be unaware that all player's fg% go up and down from year to year. You'd need multiple years of evidence that Rondo (or any other player) is shooting worse than they had in the past to make the "regressed" claim with any validity.

[D.o.s.]

  Two things worth pointing out in a thread like this: One, it's too soon to tell if Rondo's shooting has improved or "regressed". Coming back from a knee injury affected his shot last year, and a broken hand/no exhibition season hasn't helped this year. You should probably wait most of the way through the season to look at this question. Two, and more importantly, if his fg% is lower this year than it was when he was healthy it's *not* proof that his shot has "regressed". This is a fairly cringe-worthy subject, as many of the posters in this thread seem to be unaware that all player's fg% go up and down from year to year. You'd need multiple years of evidence that Rondo (or any other player) is shooting worse than they had in the past to make the "regressed" claim with any validity.

This is more or less my feeling on it, too.

[kozlodoev]

But then, you also need multiple years to establish how well he's been shooting in the past. So pretty much a guy's career has to be over before you can make an assessment.

In any case, these are a whole lot of excuses. There's always something to explain Rondo's poor shooting (much like there's always something to explain Sullinger's weight). Time to call a spade a spade.

[footey]

dude has a cast on his hand. a little early to judge his shooting.

[BballTim]

But then, you also need multiple years to establish how well he's been shooting in the past. So pretty much a guy's career has to be over before you can make an assessment.

In any case, these are a whole lot of excuses. There's always something to explain Rondo's poor shooting (much like there's always something to explain Sullinger's weight). Time to call a spade a spade.

  What's the difference between a reason and an excuse? Whether you like it or not?

  In terms of shooting, I think that there are certain trends that you see among players, such as shooting typically improving early in the player's career and eventually tailing off. Other than that, it does take a while. Whenever I talk about a player's shooting getting worse it's a multi-year trend. Otherwise it's just noise. My point was you can't just look at numbers in a vacuum and not take into account the year to year variations you typically see with a player.

  Another trend we'll hopefully see with Rondo is improvement in shooting after a knee injury, usually starting some time in the year after the initial return to the court. Again, though, you really won't know for sure for quite a while.

  In terms of Rondo, it's probably safe to make certain claims about his shooting. He's generally better than average at the rim, not so great on the short stuff (3-9 feet), average or so from 10-23 feet, and a poor foul shooter. I think you could still see a shift in his 3 point shooting if he actually decides to start taking them on a regular basis, but we'll see.

[kozlodoev]

But then, you also need multiple years to establish how well he's been shooting in the past. So pretty much a guy's career has to be over before you can make an assessment.

In any case, these are a whole lot of excuses. There's always something to explain Rondo's poor shooting (much like there's always something to explain Sullinger's weight). Time to call a spade a spade.

  What's the difference between a reason and an excuse? Whether you like it or not?

  In terms of shooting, I think that there are certain trends that you see among players, such as shooting typically improving early in the player's career and eventually tailing off. Other than that, it does take a while. Whenever I talk about a player's shooting getting worse it's a multi-year trend. Otherwise it's just noise. My point was you can't just look at numbers in a vacuum and not take into account the year to year variations you typically see with a player.

  Another trend we'll hopefully see with Rondo is improvement in shooting after a knee injury, usually starting some time in the year after the initial return to the court. Again, though, you really won't know for sure for quite a while.

  In terms of Rondo, it's probably safe to make certain claims about his shooting. He's generally better than average at the rim, not so great on the short stuff (3-9 feet), average or so from 10-23 feet, and a poor foul shooter. I think you could still see a shift in his 3 point shooting if he actually decides to start taking them on a regular basis, but we'll see.

The difference is the same as the difference between "oh, it's the cast on his pinkie" and "he has to play better". Excuse mode tends to point to the former right away -- and I find that unacceptable. So that much about the difference.

As for trends, I haven't seen much of any trend with Rondo's shooting skills so far, other than that they've been highly volatile and generally poor. No reason to think the knee injury would affect this, and that argument has been mostly conjecture and wishful thinking anyhow. Sure, he "had time to work on his shooting". That's been the case in every offseason so far and the results have been a big fat zero.

He is what he is, sadly. He probably hasn't really regressed, but doesn't seem to have progressed, either.

[BballTim]

But then, you also need multiple years to establish how well he's been shooting in the past. So pretty much a guy's career has to be over before you can make an assessment.

In any case, these are a whole lot of excuses. There's always something to explain Rondo's poor shooting (much like there's always something to explain Sullinger's weight). Time to call a spade a spade.

  What's the difference between a reason and an excuse? Whether you like it or not?

  In terms of shooting, I think that there are certain trends that you see among players, such as shooting typically improving early in the player's career and eventually tailing off. Other than that, it does take a while. Whenever I talk about a player's shooting getting worse it's a multi-year trend. Otherwise it's just noise. My point was you can't just look at numbers in a vacuum and not take into account the year to year variations you typically see with a player.

  Another trend we'll hopefully see with Rondo is improvement in shooting after a knee injury, usually starting some time in the year after the initial return to the court. Again, though, you really won't know for sure for quite a while.

  In terms of Rondo, it's probably safe to make certain claims about his shooting. He's generally better than average at the rim, not so great on the short stuff (3-9 feet), average or so from 10-23 feet, and a poor foul shooter. I think you could still see a shift in his 3 point shooting if he actually decides to start taking them on a regular basis, but we'll see.

The difference is the same as the difference between "oh, it's the cast on his pinkie" and "he has to play better". Excuse mode tends to point to the former right away -- and I find that unacceptable. So that much about the difference.

As for trends, I haven't seen much of any trend with Rondo's shooting skills so far, other than that they've been highly volatile and generally poor. No reason to think the knee injury would affect this, and that argument has been mostly conjecture and wishful thinking anyhow. Sure, he "had time to work on his shooting". That's been the case in every offseason so far and the results have been a big fat zero.

He is what he is, sadly. He probably hasn't really regressed, but doesn't seem to have progressed, either.

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

[kozlodoev]

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

I am aware of the study. However, the findings are purely associative, and there is nothing in particular about a knee injury that will cause you to be a better shooter. Therefore, that Rondo will follow this model is wishful thinking to me.

As for shooting, Rondo is below average on anything but 16-23 jumpers, career numbers or otherwise.

[Boris Badenov]

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

I am aware of the study. However, the findings are purely associative, and there is nothing in particular about a knee injury that will cause you to be a better shooter. Therefore, that Rondo will follow this model is wishful thinking to me.

As for shooting, Rondo is below average on anything but 16-23 jumpers, career numbers or otherwise.

As usual I'm on both sides of the argument.

1. There is something about a knee injury that might make you a better shooter: a long recovery period during which you can do little except shoot jumpers on an empty court.

2. The findings are as Koz said associative (and from a small sample). As one example of a possible confounding influence, most of the players in that sample were closer to the beginning of their careers. If jump shooting improves with age for everyone, you would get the same result. What you'd want to look at is the relative rates of improvement in the injury vs. non injury groups.

All that said, I can't believe some posters are once again making assessments about whether a player has changed in any material way based on just a few games. It's just....weird.

[BballTim]

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

I am aware of the study. However, the findings are purely associative, and there is nothing in particular about a knee injury that will cause you to be a better shooter. Therefore, that Rondo will follow this model is wishful thinking to me.

As for shooting, Rondo is below average on anything but 16-23 jumpers, career numbers or otherwise.

  I don't think he's below average from 10-15 feet unless it's a fraction of a percent. If you combine them he's average or better from 10-23 feet. He's also average or better at the rim for a point guard. Heck, career-wise his 3-9 feet is almost average. I'd guess if you totaled his fg% over all the 2 point shots he's taken over his career he's almost dead on the league average for 2 point shots for point guards over that time.

[BballTim]

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

I am aware of the study. However, the findings are purely associative, and there is nothing in particular about a knee injury that will cause you to be a better shooter. Therefore, that Rondo will follow this model is wishful thinking to me.

   I could debate whether there's anything in particular about a knee injury that will make you a better shooter, but I only have a vague recollection of the article. I don't think it was really central to the point I was making.

[BballTim]

  The "knee injury thing" is based on a study someone did about jump shooting fg% before and after knee injuries for a bunch of players. Even if he "is what he is", he's probably been average or better overall aside from threes and free throws over the last 5-6 years if not over his entire career.

I am aware of the study. However, the findings are purely associative, and there is nothing in particular about a knee injury that will cause you to be a better shooter. Therefore, that Rondo will follow this model is wishful thinking to me.

As for shooting, Rondo is below average on anything but 16-23 jumpers, career numbers or otherwise.

  I don't think he's below average from 10-15 feet unless it's a fraction of a percent. If you combine them he's average or better from 10-23 feet. He's also average or better at the rim for a point guard. Heck, career-wise his 3-9 feet is almost average. I'd guess if you totaled his fg% over all the 2 point shots he's taken over his career he's almost dead on the league average for 2 point shots for point guards over that time.

  Just to expound on this, here is a bunch of point guards, and their career 2 point fg%. It's basically the top 26 active point guards in terms of assists/game, minus a few I deleted because they weren't that important (Kendall Marshall for example). Rondo's 6th out of the 26 in terms of career 2 point fg%. That doesn't mean he's a great shooter, and it doesn't say anything about his 3fg% or ft% but it is what it is.

Chris Paul .501
Deron Williams .491
Steve Nash .518
Rajon Rondo .495
John Wall .445
Ricky Rubio .379
Andre Miller .476
Russell Westbrook .454
Jose Calderon .512
Stephen Curry .484
Derrick Rose .486
Raymond Felton .441
Michael Carter-Williams .440
Brandon Jennings .412
Jrue Holiday .456
Ty Lawson .505
Damian Lillard .455
Tony Parker .515
Kyrie Irving .471
Mike Conley .465
Chauncey Billups .435
Kyle Lowry .460
Jameer Nelson .475
Kemba Walker .426
Kirk Hinrich .434

[Evantime34]

I think since Rondo didn't play in any pre season games his shooting thus far is expected.

I don't think he'll ever become a good shooter but I wouldn't go as far as to say he has regressed since he's not in regular season form yet.

So far this year he is shooting a career worst percentage from 3 feet in, once he is all the way integrated (after missing the pre season) I expect this number to rise and make defenses more worried about his driving. Once they worry about his driving his other shots should become easier and his percentages will go up.

[kozlodoev]

I don't think he's below average from 10-15 feet unless it's a fraction of a percent. If you combine them he's average or better from 10-23 feet.

According to Hoopdata, the league average for 10-15 foot shots has been 38%, 39%, and 42% for the seasons between 2010 and 2013. In those seasons, Rondo has shot 31%, 28%, and 39% from that range.