Anyone want to bet Marcus Smart wont shoot over 40% this year?

[dmopower]

Rookie season.  A.I  41.6%  Chauncy B. 37.4%    Deron W. 42.1%  Chris P. 43.0%    Isaiah Thomas 42.4%   Rondo 41.8%  Russel W. 39.8%  D Wade 46.5%  Lillard 42.9% 

 This is a quick look at the FG% of some of the better players rookie campains.  I find it interesting that Wade is probably considered the worst shooter of this group as he never realy got good at the 3 ball of FT%  yet he has one of the higher career averages of all of these guys.

  My point being that a low fg% in most of these guys rookie seasons appears to be a bad indicator of future success.  And that knowing your limits can be even more important than being the best shooter out there.

 He may not shoot 40% But if he was a polished shooter we would not have him.

[LarBrd33]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

[86MaxwellSmart]

The way he has played so far---I'm okay with waiting for his shot to improve---I would like to see him drive to the basket, instead of jacking up outside shots as soon as he is open....but maybe that's what the coaches want him to do.

His Defense has been Outstanding though---you can see guys like Kyle Lowry getting p---ed at him already.

[Jesus Shuttlesworth #20]

Marcus Smart throws up some serious bricks from 3, he will be lucky to shoot 28% from 3. When Smart plays with Rondo it may be the worst shooting backcourt combination in the history of the NBA.

[fairweatherfan]

Depends on how well he gets to the rim.  From 16 out it's very safe to expect him below 40.  Hopefully he'll improve on that as he develops.

[dmopower]

Another poster was pointing out that his shot is all over the place and not consistantly short or off to the side.  I'm wondering if he forgets to look and focus on the rim some days or if something is affecting his vision sometimes.

[celtics2030]

Rookie season.  A.I  41.6%  Chauncy B. 37.4%    Deron W. 42.1%  Chris P. 43.0%    Isaiah Thomas 42.4%   Rondo 41.8%  Russel W. 39.8%  D Wade 46.5%  Lillard 42.9% 

 This is a quick look at the FG% of some of the better players rookie campains.  I find it interesting that Wade is probably considered the worst shooter of this group as he never realy got good at the 3 ball of FT%  yet he has one of the higher career averages of all of these guys.

  My point being that a low fg% in most of these guys rookie seasons appears to be a bad indicator of future success.  And that knowing your limits can be even more important than being the best shooter out there.

 He may not shoot 40% But if he was a polished shooter we would not have him.

Dwayne Wade does not shoot any three's thus his FG is high,

Rondo just cant shoot at all , he can now a little but when he first came (scary)....RW is a bad shot taker, but has come around a bit but still not the best. AI is AI, hes going to take every shot. Chauncey really improved.

If Smart cant find a way to be a fearless driver and good finisher he wont be able to shoot over 40%...EVER

Im not sure he can become a great finisher and driver, at this level.

He reminds me of OMAR COOK.

[Celtics4ever]

In the end being able to shoot when games matter is the key to NBA greatest.   DJ wasn't the greatest shot but he was clutch as they come.   I hope Smart becomes that.

[LooseCannon]

I'd be interested to know how many of Leonard's 3s were corner shots (the easiest 3 point field goal), because the Spurs practically live off of that shot lol.

Last season, Leonard took 80 corner threes-point attempts and 102 above the break.  He shot 37.0% on left-corner threes and 38.2% on both right corner and above the break threes.  You can also look at his shot chart.

[Rondo9]

Rookie season.  A.I  41.6%  Chauncy B. 37.4%    Deron W. 42.1%  Chris P. 43.0%    Isaiah Thomas 42.4%   Rondo 41.8%  Russel W. 39.8%  D Wade 46.5%  Lillard 42.9% 

 This is a quick look at the FG% of some of the better players rookie campains.  I find it interesting that Wade is probably considered the worst shooter of this group as he never realy got good at the 3 ball of FT%  yet he has one of the higher career averages of all of these guys.

  My point being that a low fg% in most of these guys rookie seasons appears to be a bad indicator of future success.  And that knowing your limits can be even more important than being the best shooter out there.

 He may not shoot 40% But if he was a polished shooter we would not have him.

Dwayne Wade does not shoot any three's thus his FG is high,

Rondo just cant shoot at all , he can now a little but when he first came (scary)....RW is a bad shot taker, but has come around a bit but still not the best. AI is AI, hes going to take every shot. Chauncey really improved.

If Smart cant find a way to be a fearless driver and good finisher he wont be able to shoot over 40%...EVER

Im not sure he can become a great finisher and driver, at this level.

He reminds me of OMAR COOK.

Smart detractors are just as hyperbolic as Smart lovers

[fitzhickey]

Rookie season.  A.I  41.6%  Chauncy B. 37.4%    Deron W. 42.1%  Chris P. 43.0%    Isaiah Thomas 42.4%   Rondo 41.8%  Russel W. 39.8%  D Wade 46.5%  Lillard 42.9% 

 This is a quick look at the FG% of some of the better players rookie campains.  I find it interesting that Wade is probably considered the worst shooter of this group as he never realy got good at the 3 ball of FT%  yet he has one of the higher career averages of all of these guys.

  My point being that a low fg% in most of these guys rookie seasons appears to be a bad indicator of future success.  And that knowing your limits can be even more important than being the best shooter out there.

 He may not shoot 40% But if he was a polished shooter we would not have him.

Dwayne Wade does not shoot any three's thus his FG is high,

Rondo just cant shoot at all , he can now a little but when he first came (scary)....RW is a bad shot taker, but has come around a bit but still not the best. AI is AI, hes going to take every shot. Chauncey really improved.

If Smart cant find a way to be a fearless driver and good finisher he wont be able to shoot over 40%...EVER

Im not sure he can become a great finisher and driver, at this level.

He reminds me of OMAR COOK.

Smart detractors are just as hyperbolic as Smart lovers

We've either got Dwyane Wade or a guy who played 22 NBA games.

[aingeforthree]

I bet whomever he's guarding won't shoot over 40%. I also think he has an outstanding assist to turnover ratio & is top 5 in the league in Steals per game.

[DarkAzcura]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

So even if Smart is a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr (far less than college), he can still end up being a 13.6 PPG on 11.2 FGA in ~25 MPG based on his FGA per minute in college. Obviously he won't be able to chuck up that many FGA in 25 MPG because his role is different than in college. He'd probably have to see closer to 35 MPG to receive that many FGA.

For reference, even when Rondo shot close to 51% FG, he was only a 13.7 PPG on 11.2 FGA. That's how big a difference drawing fouls and shooting 3s can make in your efficiency even if you can't hit your 3s incredibly well. Smart could be 13% worse on his overall FG% but still match Rondo's scoring production in his best scoring year. That's based on whether he can be a 45% FTr player, but seeing as Smart was a 65% FTr player in college...I think 45% is attainable within his first two years in the league. Not a slight at Rondo, because I love him but trying to give context here.

[Fred Roberts]

The only percentage that matters with Smart is the 1000% confidence. This kid believes in himself. It just doesn't seem like self doubt comes up at all with him.

That seems to be a major key to making it in the league. Yea, you need talent. But you also need work ethic and inordinate amounts of confidence. He appears to have those attributes, which bode well for him as a pro.

He'll obviously need time to adjust from his prior role as the all everything guy at OSU. As he refines his role on the team, he'll get better at playing within himself.

[D.o.s.]

Rookie season.  A.I  41.6%  Chauncy B. 37.4%    Deron W. 42.1%  Chris P. 43.0%    Isaiah Thomas 42.4%   Rondo 41.8%  Russel W. 39.8%  D Wade 46.5%  Lillard 42.9% 

 This is a quick look at the FG% of some of the better players rookie campains.  I find it interesting that Wade is probably considered the worst shooter of this group as he never realy got good at the 3 ball of FT%  yet he has one of the higher career averages of all of these guys.

  My point being that a low fg% in most of these guys rookie seasons appears to be a bad indicator of future success.  And that knowing your limits can be even more important than being the best shooter out there.

 He may not shoot 40% But if he was a polished shooter we would not have him.

Dwayne Wade does not shoot any three's thus his FG is high,

Rondo just cant shoot at all , he can now a little but when he first came (scary)....RW is a bad shot taker, but has come around a bit but still not the best. AI is AI, hes going to take every shot. Chauncey really improved.

If Smart cant find a way to be a fearless driver and good finisher he wont be able to shoot over 40%...EVER

Im not sure he can become a great finisher and driver, at this level.

He reminds me of OMAR COOK.

Wade actually shot a ton of threes over his career, and only recently stopped taking them.