Anyone want to bet Marcus Smart wont shoot over 40% this year?

[LooseCannon]

Let's look at this from a different angle.  You and a friend who is knowledgeable about basketball want to bet on Smart's FG%.  You will set the line for over-under and your friend gets to pick whether he wants the over or the under.  You get the other side.

Where would you set the line?

[dasani]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

So even if Smart is a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr (far less than college), he can still end up being a 13.6 PPG on 11.2 FGA in ~25 MPG based on his FGA per minute in college. Obviously he won't be able to chuck up that many FGA in 25 MPG because his role is different than in college. He'd probably have to see closer to 35 MPG to receive that many FGA.

For reference, even when Rondo shot close to 51% FG, he was only a 13.7 PPG on 11.2 FGA. That's how big a difference drawing fouls and shooting 3s can make in your efficiency even if you can't hit your 3s incredibly well. Smart could be 13% worse on his overall FG% but still match Rondo's scoring production in his best scoring year. That's based on whether he can be a 45% FTr player, but seeing as Smart was a 65% FTr player in college...I think 45% is attainable within his first two years in the league. Not a slight at Rondo, because I love him but trying to give context here.

But college stats are not really relevant here. I know its for reference, but college scouts felt that Smart's slashing game wouldnt translate well in the pros. Reason being the much better defenses and he really doesnt have all that great of a first step to blow by defenders. His defense is what he got praised for and was nba ready, his offense is flawed to an extent. Jalen Rose believed that he can only be defensive role player, if he doesnt improve his shooting and shot selection. Im not sure its gonna improve greatly for him to be a real threat on that side of the ball.

[SHAQATTACK]

Lots of guys get better as pros .   It happens every year.  I see lots of improvement to various stars or will be stars .   Kobe didn't get better from his rookie year?  Jason Kidd didn't improve?  Some faster than others .   

Why all the hate on a 20 year old will be star.?

[Celtics4ever]

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

Have to love math and stats, this doesn't make me feel better when he goes 1 for 5.

[dasani]

Lots of guys get better as pros .   It happens every year.  I see lots of improvement to various stars or will be stars .   Kobe didn't get better from his rookie year?  Jason Kidd didn't improve?  Some faster than others .   

Why all the hate on a 20 year old will be star.?

what hate? for every one that is better than they were in college, there are many who are not. he was actually pretty good in college, to be better than that would be amazing but the fact is, college has inferior defenses and players than the pros. Most college players do not play pro after college. Thats just the way it is.

[Diggles]

He won't be able to do it. His 3 point percentage will be in the lowest of 30's maybe.

I will~   You have paypal!   LOL .  I root for him to do so.   So I'll take the under dog.   But I want someone to hold the $

[hwangjini_1]

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

Have to love math and stats, this doesn't make me feel better when he goes 1 for 5.

it should. because you expect him to move towards his average in the future. so expect a 3 for 5 night from him soon.

[mmmmm]

Just for context...in his rookie year bradley shot 34%. Last year he shot 44%. I believe that smart can score in the nba. But he will need to learn to mix drives to the basket with open shots. He will never be Ray Allen, but if he can make open shots and drive to the basket he will be fine as a scorer.

Statistically, Bradley was a better shooter than Smart in college.  It should not be surprising if a similar gulf exists between them when they both realize their full potential in the NBA.

Bradley was also a top shooter in high school before shooting .375 from the three as a teenager in his one year of college. Smart didn't crack 30% from the college 3 in either of his two years at that level.

Smart could become a good shooter over time or he might not. That's the risk of drafting someone without a shooter's record.

A good example of how a player with poor college stats can become a good shooter would be Kawhi Leonard.  He shot 20.5% and 29.1% from three in two college seasons.  He has made between 37.0% and 38.0% of his threes in all three of his NBA seasons.

I don't know if Leonard is a very good comparable for Smart.

Leonard shot relatively few threes compared to Smart.  He shot just 164 across both seasons in college.  He also shot 2PT shots at a very high efficiency (~50%) and was thought to have good shooting form.   While 29.1% from 3PT land in his second year is not great, it was also notably a big improvement from the 20.5% of his first year -- indicating that he could show improvement in extending his range.

Smart shot 164 threes in his second year alone -- 295 total across both years.  And his efficiency at the shot stayed static.  That's the concerning thing.   Especially given that his form has a couple of very noticeable problems that should be correctable.   In particular his tendency to clamshell (bend forward at the waist).

Overall FG% is not necessarily a fair measure of a "shooter".   Even if Smart remains a poor outside "shooter" he could get his FG% up significantly if he could drive to the rim more often.   So far, we haven't seen much of that -- but it is only preseason.

Rondo is not much of a 3PT shooter, but has, for his career, been fairly efficient at getting the ball in the basket (career FG% of 47.5%, eFG% of 48.6%) through good shot selection.   Smart hopefully will learn to do this as well.

But I agree that his history is concerning.   Even back in college, Rondo posted an eFG% of 52.1%.  Smart's eFG at OKC was 47.0%.

Basically, I'd like to see Smart going to the hoop more and not worry about hitting 3s so much.

[Rondo9]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

So even if Smart is a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr (far less than college), he can still end up being a 13.6 PPG on 11.2 FGA in ~25 MPG based on his FGA per minute in college. Obviously he won't be able to chuck up that many FGA in 25 MPG because his role is different than in college. He'd probably have to see closer to 35 MPG to receive that many FGA.

For reference, even when Rondo shot close to 51% FG, he was only a 13.7 PPG on 11.2 FGA. That's how big a difference drawing fouls and shooting 3s can make in your efficiency even if you can't hit your 3s incredibly well. Smart could be 13% worse on his overall FG% but still match Rondo's scoring production in his best scoring year. That's based on whether he can be a 45% FTr player, but seeing as Smart was a 65% FTr player in college...I think 45% is attainable within his first two years in the league. Not a slight at Rondo, because I love him but trying to give context here.

But college stats are not really relevant here. I know its for reference, but college scouts felt that Smart's slashing game wouldnt translate well in the pros. Reason being the much better defenses and he really doesnt have all that great of a first step to blow by defenders. His defense is what he got praised for and was nba ready, his offense is flawed to an extent. Jalen Rose believed that he can only be defensive role player, if he doesnt improve his shooting and shot selection. Im not sure its gonna improve greatly for him to be a real threat on that side of the ball.

They are especially since they do make the case that his shooting remained somewhat efficient. He's been excellent at using his strength to get to the line and he's skilled enough to make plays. Or do you believe that he's nothing more than a defensive role player?

[loco_91]

I'm more interested in his eFG%. 40% FG might not be too bad if he's drawing lots of fouls and making a decent number of 3's.

Key stats for Smart this year imo are AST:TO, FTA, and eFG. Less important are FG% and ppg. Also important because it measures Stevens' impression of his progress: minutes per game.

[dasani]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

So even if Smart is a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr (far less than college), he can still end up being a 13.6 PPG on 11.2 FGA in ~25 MPG based on his FGA per minute in college. Obviously he won't be able to chuck up that many FGA in 25 MPG because his role is different than in college. He'd probably have to see closer to 35 MPG to receive that many FGA.

For reference, even when Rondo shot close to 51% FG, he was only a 13.7 PPG on 11.2 FGA. That's how big a difference drawing fouls and shooting 3s can make in your efficiency even if you can't hit your 3s incredibly well. Smart could be 13% worse on his overall FG% but still match Rondo's scoring production in his best scoring year. That's based on whether he can be a 45% FTr player, but seeing as Smart was a 65% FTr player in college...I think 45% is attainable within his first two years in the league. Not a slight at Rondo, because I love him but trying to give context here.

But college stats are not really relevant here. I know its for reference, but college scouts felt that Smart's slashing game wouldnt translate well in the pros. Reason being the much better defenses and he really doesnt have all that great of a first step to blow by defenders. His defense is what he got praised for and was nba ready, his offense is flawed to an extent. Jalen Rose believed that he can only be defensive role player, if he doesnt improve his shooting and shot selection. Im not sure its gonna improve greatly for him to be a real threat on that side of the ball.

They are especially since they do make the case that his shooting remained somewhat efficient. He's been excellent at using his strength to get to the line and he's skilled enough to make plays. Or do you believe that he's nothing more than a defensive role player?

It all remains to be seen. This year will provide more insight, but should not be the end all. But the overrating done by some posters was obviously premature. Like most rookies he is a work in progress.

[Celtics18]

Tyreke Evans has never shot below 40% for a season.  This fact gives me hope that Marcus Smart can be an above 40 percent shooter from the floor.  Lay off the threes and the long twos, take the ball aggressively to the hoop, and get comfortable with the in between game. 

[DarkAzcura]

He wasn't a good shooter in College.  No reason to believe he'll be a good one in the pros.  I think 36-41% is what we should expect.  Under 30% from three.

You don't think he can improve in the pros?

He could improve... but the question is what we expect him to do this year.  Under 40% seems likely.  Under 30% from three.  He's not a good shooter.

Marcus Smart's TS% was 55% in his final year of college. His at rim shooting percentage was 65%. His overall 2PT% in his second year of college was 51%. If he gets anywhere close to 36% FG, it will because his 3Pr saw spikes ways over 50%. He maintained his 3Pr at around ~42% last season. Based off of pre-season, you may be right because he has barely driven to the hoop, but if he starts driving to the hoop, it's unlikely he'll be around 36% FG. I do have him at around 40%, though, so I don't know if my point is moot. Just wanted to throw the numbers out there so people understand what it would actually take to get way under 40% for him. The weird thing is, even if he is at 38% FG, Marcus Smart has such an unusual spread of 3s vs drives to the rim with drawn fouls (in college), that his TS% may still be decent to good.

So even if Smart is a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr (far less than college), he can still end up being a 13.6 PPG on 11.2 FGA in ~25 MPG based on his FGA per minute in college. Obviously he won't be able to chuck up that many FGA in 25 MPG because his role is different than in college. He'd probably have to see closer to 35 MPG to receive that many FGA.

For reference, even when Rondo shot close to 51% FG, he was only a 13.7 PPG on 11.2 FGA. That's how big a difference drawing fouls and shooting 3s can make in your efficiency even if you can't hit your 3s incredibly well. Smart could be 13% worse on his overall FG% but still match Rondo's scoring production in his best scoring year. That's based on whether he can be a 45% FTr player, but seeing as Smart was a 65% FTr player in college...I think 45% is attainable within his first two years in the league. Not a slight at Rondo, because I love him but trying to give context here.

But college stats are not really relevant here. I know its for reference, but college scouts felt that Smart's slashing game wouldnt translate well in the pros. Reason being the much better defenses and he really doesnt have all that great of a first step to blow by defenders. His defense is what he got praised for and was nba ready, his offense is flawed to an extent. Jalen Rose believed that he can only be defensive role player, if he doesnt improve his shooting and shot selection. Im not sure its gonna improve greatly for him to be a real threat on that side of the ball.

They are especially since they do make the case that his shooting remained somewhat efficient. He's been excellent at using his strength to get to the line and he's skilled enough to make plays. Or do you believe that he's nothing more than a defensive role player?

It all remains to be seen. This year will provide more insight, but should not be the end all. But the overrating done by some posters was obviously premature. Like most rookies he is a work in progress.

I hope you aren't saying I overrated Smart by saying he may be a 38/30/75 player or 40/30/75 player this year.  Anyway, to respond to your post a couple up where you quoted me..you're right, raw college stats do not apply, but that wasn't the basis for my point anyway. I adjusted Smart's FTr way down because I assumed he will struggle to adjust to NBA length and speed for his attack game. I already said that. Other stats, it's fair to translate them from college to the NBA. The ones I translated were 3Pr and a lowered FTr. These are percentage stats based on shot selection and distribution.

Shot selection is one of those things that will probably not change much for a player going into the NBA. That's why I thought it was fair to call Smart a potential 40/30/75 player in his rookie year..since he was a 41/29 player in college. He had a 42% 3Pr in college. Based on pre-season, I don't see this number changing much. His FTr in college was ~65%, which will most likely not happen in the NBA for quite some time if ever. That's why I brought his number down to 40-45% FTr, which if it doesn't happen in his first year, could happen as he adjusts to NBA length.

The numbers I chose was grounded in reality, imo, and his current shot selection. I was giving people here an idea of what his numbers could look like if he were a 38/30/75 player with a 40% 3Pr and 45% FTr. Nothing more, nothing less. Barely based on his raw college stats and more on his shot selection, and if you think I'm overrating him by basing his numbers on 38% FG, well..you must not think very highly of him then. 

[dreamgreen]

Late to the party.

He can shoot, but he takes AWFUL shots. The rest of his game seems very mature so I have hope he will calm down and play within himself and the offense.

[celtics2030]

I will put 50$ on the line on this bet that he does not shoot over 40.1%