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Quote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 07:22:09 PMQuote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 07:20:33 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 07:01:49 PMQuote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 06:55:01 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 06:39:59 PMThen you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening. If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences. Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)1. Get in the playoffs2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 63. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year. Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking. My main and only interest is to get to the playoffs, everything else is quite secondary.OK at least now we know what we disagree about
Quote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 07:20:33 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 07:01:49 PMQuote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 06:55:01 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 06:39:59 PMThen you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening. If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences. Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)1. Get in the playoffs2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 63. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year. Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking. My main and only interest is to get to the playoffs, everything else is quite secondary.
Quote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 07:01:49 PMQuote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 06:55:01 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 06:39:59 PMThen you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening. If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences. Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)1. Get in the playoffs2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 63. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year. Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking.
Quote from: greece666 on October 11, 2014, 06:55:01 PMQuote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 06:39:59 PMThen you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening. If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences. Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".
Quote from: BudweiserCeltic on October 11, 2014, 06:39:59 PMThen you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening. If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.
Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?
I don't know what we're arguing to be disagreeing on something, please enlighten me... I merely answered questions you had.
The Las Vegas over under that I bet on this year was 26.5 wins. I bet 300 bucks we can win 27. So here is hoping because frankly, that is pretty absurd unless Rondo gets traded and we go into full tank mode again
Topic: This year C's vs last year C's (Read 3776 times)