This year C's vs last year C's

[vgulab]

First i must say that i haven't been active on celtisblog for the last few months. Being from europe is a problem but how can i not watch my Celtics after 6 months with no games? Last year was bad year for the team and probably biggest excitement for me was Pero Antic , the first player from my country in the nba. Now it's time for a new season. We all expect fireworks in the summer but all we got was a few smaller trades. Which by the way were pretty solid trades. So, good summer and i'm excited.

My personal prediction is that this will be much better than last year team. I've been comparing the roster and the stats and came to conclusion that on paper this year Celtics are not actually better. But still believe that in 15' C's will end with 10+ or more wins. Why?

Brad Stevens is one of the main reasons. When my friend ask me who will have a breakout season this year i sad Brad Stevens,  he is the guy who will improve most. Last season he was adjusting to the nba and he was still evaluating the players. At moments he looked like an average coach but this season it looks like he knows whats he is doing. From what i saw in these preseason games, he knows what he wants from every player and every player knows what the coach needs from him.

Rotations - It's just 3 games into preseason and not just Stevens but all of us knows what the rotations will look like. Last year it took i lot of time for Stevens to realize what are the best rotations. This is big advantage because Stevens won't have to sacrifice games to learn the best rotations. Potential problem is that the C's have to many players so trades are expected. Most important is to keep the young core players like Bradley,Sullinger,Smart, Young.

Consistency - Last year there were a lot of ups and downs for few players. This year is going to be diffrent. Bradley and Sullinger will be more consistent and if Olynyk and Green did the same we will be in the playoffs.

New guys who can contribute right away - Smart , Young , Turner , Thorthon , Zeller
Zeller is the guy who all wanted to have on the team, young 7 foot center, but if he continues to be unimpressive he will be playing 8-9 mpg. Thorthon is the guy who might not finish the season with the Celtics but so far he is pretty good on the offensive end. Turner is a good player but the chalenge is to make him an effective player. Most of us suspect in Young and how much he will be able to contribute but he proves us all that despite his age he will be able to play some qualitty minutes. Smart will play a lot of minutes and they will try to develop him faster.

So this year team is not changed a lot in terms of players but has improved coach and players, plays better defense and smoother offense and most important a lot of potential. The only setback is Green and Rondo injuries and probably those february trades which will probably happen and will disrupt the team hemistry.

 

[LarBrd33]

We've made additions, but none of them really solve any of our problems.  If we didn't already have a PG, Smart would be someone who could make a major improvement on the team.  But since our strongest position is PG, it doesn't really make as much of an impact.  I feel that way about most of our additions.  Turner is nice, but probably redundant with Green. Zeller is meh.  Young is probably a D-leaguer for a couple years.   Thornton has some game, but I'm not sure where his minutes are coming from.

I don't expect us to be much better than last year.  Should still struggle to win 30 games. 

In the NBA, you take quality over quantity.  Adding 1 superstar can make more of an impact on a team than adding 8 role players.

[vgulab]

 This team is not that bad to win only 25 games. There were a lot of problems last year starting from injuries (Rondo, Sullinger, Bradley....). A coach who was adapting to the league. Players who played for themselfs because they didn't knew their role and not a lot of hemisty between players. This year it will be different

[greece66]

I agree this team will probably be quite better than last year's.
But the temptation to be among the League's worst six teams is greater than ever 
(I know, it sounds disgusting, but not as disgusting as what happened to the Suns last year.)

[BudweiserCeltic]

We've made additions, but none of them really solve any of our problems.  If we didn't already have a PG, Smart would be someone who could make a major improvement on the team.  But since our strongest position is PG, it doesn't really make as much of an impact.  I feel that way about most of our additions.  Turner is nice, but probably redundant with Green. Zeller is meh.  Young is probably a D-leaguer for a couple years.   Thornton has some game, but I'm not sure where his minutes are coming from.

I don't expect us to be much better than last year.  Should still struggle to win 30 games. 

In the NBA, you take quality over quantity.  Adding 1 superstar can make more of an impact on a team than adding 8 role players.

To put it into perspective, we're better this year, better players at hand, less holes in our units with our young guys looking to be improved versions of themselves.

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

[vgulab]

I agree this team will probably be quite better than last year's.
But the temptation to be among the League's worst six teams is greater than ever 
(I know, it sounds disgusting, but not as disgusting as what happened to the Suns last year.)

Eastern conference is pretty bad and i believe we can be in the playoff, so i would rather see the Celtics in the playoff than watch another 25 win season

[greece66]

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening.
If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap  ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.

[greece66]

I agree this team will probably be quite better than last year's.
But the temptation to be among the League's worst six teams is greater than ever 
(I know, it sounds disgusting, but not as disgusting as what happened to the Suns last year.)

Eastern conference is pretty bad and i believe we can be in the playoff, so i would rather see the Celtics in the playoff than watch another 25 win season

Sure, this is what sucks about tanking. You have to wait for a loooooong time. BUT

[BudweiserCeltic]

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening.
If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap  ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.

Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.

That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".

Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".

[vgulab]

I agree this team will probably be quite better than last year's.
But the temptation to be among the League's worst six teams is greater than ever 
(I know, it sounds disgusting, but not as disgusting as what happened to the Suns last year.)

Eastern conference is pretty bad and i believe we can be in the playoff, so i would rather see the Celtics in the playoff than watch another 25 win season

Sure, this is what sucks about tanking. You have to wait for a loooooong time. BUT

The problem with tanking is that if you are not in the playoff young players will not develop fast enough and since we are in an era of superteams it's hard to believe that we will win the next banner buiding throught draft. We need to develop Smart,Sullinger, Bradley and add another superstar. Tanking could take years and who knows if we will draft another Durant,Ibaka,Westbrook

[greece66]

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening.
If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap  ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.

Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.

That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".

Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".

The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.
Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)
1. Get in the playoffs
2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 6
3. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)
Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?
a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.
b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year.
Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening.
If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap  ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.

Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.

That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".

Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".

The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.
Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)
1. Get in the playoffs
2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 6
3. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)
Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?
a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.
b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year.
Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking.

My main and only interest is to get to the playoffs, everything else is quite secondary.

[greece66]

Tanking could take years and who knows if we will draft another Durant,Ibaka,Westbrook

IMHO it only makes sense to stop tanking, once you are confident you have a playoff team, I do not think we have one this year, but boy, do I hope I am wrong on this one...

[greece66]

Then you factor in that prior to Lee being traded last season, our team was on pace to win 32 wins. How do you reconcile that to extrapolate your prediction for a team who for all intents and purposes looks to be improved and better (though not much better in your opinion, but better as it is), but struggling to reach even 30 wins?

(Sorry to jump in the conversation but IMHO) if they start making too many victories, then trades will start happening.
If you don't believe this, then please explain me why on earth we traded Lee, and then started complaining we had no reliable 3pt% shooter(and asked Sully to start shooting to fill in Lee's gap  ). Sounds like a very intriguing series of coincidences.

Those trades were going to happen whether we were winning or not, even more so when your star player for all intents and purposes was lost for the full season.

That's not the case this year. Doesn't mean that if Ainge can get good value for some of his pieces that he wouldn't pull the trigger, but he'll be more hesitant AND his motivation wouldn't be "to make us worse".

Lee was mainly traded because his contract ran until next year, we had no interest in carrying that "baggage".

The problem is that even if we agree that entering playoff> a good draft pick, it is still not clear that trying to make to the playoffs is our best strategy.
Assume that this our ranking of outcomes (starting from the most desirable)
1. Get in the playoffs
2. Get a good draft pick by finishing among the worst 6
3. We don't get either (eg by finishing 10th in the Eastern Conf)
Assume it is December, the C's are 10th in the East and realistically our chances of getting in the playoffs are about 30%. What do you do?
a) You try to make this team as good as possible so as to get in the playoffs? Then you have a really high risk of ending up with the least desirable outcome nr 3.
b) Or do you give more time to young players, trade Rondo while you still can get sthg in exchange, encourage Sully to improve his 3pt% etc?- thus guaranteeing yourself you avoid the worst possible outcome and improve your chances for the next year.
Of course it all depends on how you weight the different outcomes- if you see no big difference between outcomes 2 and 3 then your strategy is the right one. But I think the difference between 2 and 3 matters a lot, and this is why, unless we have a really impressive start during the first two months of the season,Ainge IMHO will go for tanking.

My main and only interest is to get to the playoffs, everything else is quite secondary.

OK at least now we know what we disagree about 

[tstorey_97]

Not sure who will be on final roster but...

Rondo
Bradley
Green
Sullinger
Zeller

Smart
Thornton
Turner
Bass/Wallace
Olynyk

Young is a minutes casualty, unless Ainge moves Thornton or Turner.
That's about it...right?

One interesting, but, not game changing observation. This year's bench is quite good. It probably has more scoring punch than a lot of teams' benches along with decent veteran presence, defensive ability and some "coincidental balance."

Smart goes with pitbull.
Thornton fills it up in a big way.
Olynyk is your 7 ft two guard on O with threeee written all over him.
Bass and GW do not take plays off on D while Bass is the 17 foot J-man.
Turner is your local creative genius...sort of. Every team, needs a nut.

The above group will smack around numerous NBA benches when they get a chance...not sure how many chances they will get.

Celtics are deep, just no real stars beyond RR, but, I agree they are better than last year. That starting five is not going to win a lot of games, but, they will be better than last year.