2015 Redsox starting lineup prediction

[Donoghus]

Cant believe Lester didnt sign with us. What a guy

Blame the Red Sox for this one, not Lester.

[wdleehi]

Cant believe Lester didnt sign with us. What a guy

Why?


The Red Sox did trade him away.

They did offer less money. 

[Rondo2287]

Cant believe Lester didnt sign with us. What a guy

Blame the Red Sox for this one, not Lester.

Redsox lowballed him during the season, traded him, then offered 22M less for his services in the offseason. 

No way this is lesters fault, in fact im starting to think the sox may just not have wanted him

[Fafnir]

Cant believe Lester didnt sign with us. What a guy

Blame the Red Sox for this one, not Lester.

Redsox lowballed him during the season, traded him, then offered 22M less for his services in the offseason. 

No way this is lesters fault, in fact im starting to think the sox may just not have wanted him

The offer might have been even worse than 22M depending on if the Red Sox offered a similary potentially vesting 7th year. Reports hadn't gotten into the nitty gritty of the Red Sox contract, just the topline numbers.

Not sure what the value of that potential 7th year is given I don't think the conditions are disclosed yet. (nor can I accurately estimate the odds of it becomng vested)

[Fafnir]

No way this is lesters fault, in fact im starting to think the sox may just not have wanted him

I'm somewhat thinking that might be the case, but that also could just as easily be spin out of a spurned front office.

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Anything can happen, of course, but the Red Sox could be in big trouble. They missed out on Lester, apparently aren't even going to try to get Max Scherzer, and the best guy left is 33-year-old James Shields. A rotation that starts with the inconsistent and injury-prone Clay Buchholz, ends with the terrible Brandon Workman, and fills the middle with mostly unproven youngsters isn't going to take you far. We'd better hope the revamped offense scores 6 or 7 a game.

[Roy H.]

I don't blame Lester for taking the money, and I don't blame the Red Sox for not increasing their offer.  $26 million per year for 6 years for a 31 year old pitcher seems like a pretty big gamble to me.

[Tr1boy]

22 m is lowball?

Ortiz, pedroia etc are not getting paid as much as they could get in the open market. Its the price you pay to play for a great team. The cubs are a bottom type team. Lester might be able to buy what  a bigger mansion now and can enjoy it during the playoffs. The playoffs he wont be part of for a long time

[Cman]

No way this is lesters fault, in fact im starting to think the sox may just not have wanted him

I'm somewhat thinking that might be the case, but that also could just as easily be spin out of a spurned front office.

I think they wanted him, but not at the price that the Cubs were offering. its clear Lester wanted "top dollar" rather than "lots of money + legacy". I cant fault him for that, and I can't fault the Red Sox for not overpaying (at least, that's what they see the $155M mark as being).

[Donoghus]

22 m is lowball?

Ortiz, pedroia etc are not getting paid as much as they could get in the open market. Its the price you pay to play for a great team. The cubs are a bottom type team. Lester might be able to buy what  a bigger mansion now and can enjoy it during the playoffs. The playoffs he wont be part of for a long time

Except that the initial offer last offseason was reportedly 4 years $70 so you're talking roughly an $8 million/year difference from what he ultimately signed for.  Then you factor in the additional year and 7th year option and it further shows that the Sox took more than advantage of the idea of "hometown discount" and really lowballed Lester to start things off.  Compare it to the Wainwright deal.  Lester was worth more.

Sox aren't a great team right now. They were in '13 but not '14.  Cubs actually had a better record than the Red Sox last year so your last comment just looks foolish and uninformed. 

Major league baseball players have a pretty short shelf life to begin with.  The window to maximize their earnings is even smaller.  This is what Lester was facing.  It wasn't a couple of million dollars difference or something.  This is $20 million plus an option.  Not chump change.  I can't blame the guy.  Seems to me you're projecting yourself onto him.

[Cman]

Anything can happen, of course, but the Red Sox could be in big trouble. They missed out on Lester, apparently aren't even going to try to get Max Scherzer, and the best guy left is 33-year-old James Shields. A rotation that starts with the inconsistent and injury-prone Clay Buchholz, ends with the terrible Brandon Workman, and fills the middle with mostly unproven youngsters isn't going to take you far. We'd better hope the revamped offense scores 6 or 7 a game.

There's the trade market.
But I'm not overly worried yet.

[Rondo2287]

No way this is lesters fault, in fact im starting to think the sox may just not have wanted him

I'm somewhat thinking that might be the case, but that also could just as easily be spin out of a spurned front office.

I think they wanted him, but not at the price that the Cubs were offering. its clear Lester wanted "top dollar" rather than "lots of money + legacy". I cant fault him for that, and I can't fault the Red Sox for not overpaying (at least, that's what they see the $155M mark as being).

I agree, when I said they didn't want him, I more meant "at market value".  Sure they would take him for 4 years at 70 or 6 years at 120 but so would most teams :-)

[rocknrollforyoursoul]

Anything can happen, of course, but the Red Sox could be in big trouble. They missed out on Lester, apparently aren't even going to try to get Max Scherzer, and the best guy left is 33-year-old James Shields. A rotation that starts with the inconsistent and injury-prone Clay Buchholz, ends with the terrible Brandon Workman, and fills the middle with mostly unproven youngsters isn't going to take you far. We'd better hope the revamped offense scores 6 or 7 a game.

There's the trade market.
But I'm not overly worried yet.

Just curious, do you know of any quality starters on the trading block? I sure hope someone becomes available, because right now they have a triple-A rotation.

[gpap]

If I were the Sox, I'd make Scherzer a legit offer.

Something like 8/175 (take it or leave it.)

I know that's alot of money, but the Sox need pitching and they'll also have alot of money coming off the books for next year (Napoli, Victorino, Cespedes, Ortiz, etc.)

[knuckleballer]

If I were the Sox, I'd make Scherzer a legit offer.

Something like 8/175 (take it or leave it.)

I know that's alot of money, but the Sox need pitching and they'll also have alot of money coming off the books for next year (Napoli, Victorino, Cespedes, Ortiz, etc.)

Scherzer will get more per year than that.  He'll get more per year than Lester and possibly another year than him.  Think 7/180+  If the Sox were unwilling to go more than 135 on Lester while the Dodgers and Giants were willing to pay $20 mm more, I don't see the Sox being serious bidders for Scherzer.  The Tigers offered him 6/144 last offseason and were rejected.

I think the Sox blew it on Lester.  Sure he got a ton of money, but that's the market rate now.  3 teams were willing to go $150mm+.  The Sox are one of the richest teams, they should have forked over the money.  Kelly will be in the rotation making minimal money and they'll probably have a rookie in the rotation.  By 2016, they should have a few young guys in the rotation making minimum money as they have so many young pitchers ready or about ready for a shot at the majors.  Just to list them for emphasis: Workman, De La Rosa, Renaudo, Webster, Barnes, Owens, Johnson, Rodriguez, Escobar.  A few of these guys will be traded, a couple converted to relievers, and two or three should be in the Sox rotation over the next couple of years.  That's a lot of savings as they will make league minimum.  They won't need to pay a veteran 8-10 mm to fill the middle or back end of the rotation. 

Plus, they have Boagarts and Betts as every days players and Cristian Vazquez catching and Swihart about to join him.  They were paying Ross $3mm as a backup catcher.  They were even paying Drew about $12mm.  Because of these young guys coming up, they won't need to pay guys like that.  They screwed up.  They should have matched the Cubs offer.  They'll have a payroll around $180mm, so what's an extra $3mm to ensure you have an ace.