Celtics went 41-40 in the 2012-2013 regular season, are we as good as that team?

[incoherent]

First why am I asking this question? Because I want to see if our current roster has what it takes to go .500, that is all.

Lets compare rosters, I'll start with the starters.  The stats for this year's starters I'm taking from last season. The starters I chose from the 2012-2013 season are based on the amount of games they started.  I bolded my main points if you want to skim through it.

PG
Old Rondo: 13.7pts 11.1ast 5.6rbs 
Contract year Rondo thats healthy with a training camp could produce this or even surpass this.  It's a wash for now but likely this years team will have an advantage as Rondo will be playing hard for his contract every single night.

SG
Old Avery Bradley: 9.2pts 2.2ast 2.2 rbs
New Avery:          14.9pts 1.4ast 3.8rbs   Advantage goes to this years team by a lot.. he will be even better this year most likely.

SF
Paul Pierce: 18.6pts 6.3rbs 4.8ast     Advantage Old team Pierce but it's kind of close.
Jeff Green:  16.9pts 4.6rbs 1.7ast     

PF 
Brandon Bass:         8.7pts  5.2rbs  1.0ast
New Jared Sullinger: 13.3pts 8.1rbs 1.3ast        Advantage goes to Sullinger by a mile, this years Sully will out produce these stats even more, most likely.

C
Kevin Garnett:  14.8pts 7.8rbs 2.3ast 
Kelly Olynyk:    8.7pts 5.2rbs 1.6ast       
Advantage goes to the Old Team and KG by quite a bit. but I would like to point out that their per36 numbers are very similar with KG getting a couple more points and both getting same rebounds


I conclude, that this upcoming years starters are going to be better at the 1, 2, and 4 spot. They will remain close to the same but overall worse at the 5 and 3 spot.  That would leave 60% of our starters being better then a team that won 41 games in the regular season.  Even if you put Old Jeff Green in the lineup at 4, compared him to New Jared Sullinger and we have the advantage statistically.

Now ... lets look at the bench. I combined some of the positions to reflect more accurately how they were or will be used.

PG/SG/SF, combined stats per game
New team: Evan Turner, Marcus Thornton, Gerald Wallace: 29pts 12rbs 7ast 78mins
Old team: Jason Terry, Jordan Crawford, Courtney Lee:      27pts 7rbs 7ast 92mins

As you can see, our new bench guards are much much better players then our old ones. And then you throw in Phil Pressy, who is far and away a better back up PG then anyone on the old team... and Marcus Smart
Advantage: New Team

PF/C:
New Team: Tyler Zeller, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Joel Anthony
Old Team:  Rookie Jared Sullinger, Chris Wilcox, Shavlik Randolph (these last 2 are a stretch)

I'm not even going to add this up, the clear and away winner for which team had the best back up bigs is our new team. Rookie Sully did all he could for half a season, Wilcox filled in some, Shav some.. but it was enough to help us get over .500 on the year, and our bigs on the bench this year are much much better then those guys.

Our current roster is better then our 2012-2013 team, which makes me think we really could win half our games next season.

What do you guys think? Agree with any of my conclusions?

[Mr October]

Rondo should be better. The role players will be better.

But missing KG and Pierce are huge holes to fill. Those two brought it in a big way the second half of that season. Pierce then is still way better than Green now. Green can't create his own shot and he cant create for others. That is a gigantic gap that separates him from 2012-13 Pierce.

Instead of 41 wins, this team will get around 32 if everyone is healthy.

[jacksmedulaoblongata]

No, we're not as good as 12-13, but the East isn't as good either if you want a positive spin.

[Mr October]

No, we're not as good as 12-13, but the East isn't as good either if you want a positive spin.

Good point about how much worse the east is now. Spread the extra wins around, and maybe the Celtics get 35 wins.

[The Rondo Show]

Given they were around .500 before Rondo went down, I still believe that 2012 team would have had more than 41 wins without injury issues.

[Mr October]

Given they were around .500 before Rondo went down, I still believe that 2012 team would have had more than 41 wins without injury issues.

I agree with this. Pierce and Garnett are old. They take longer to get their legs under them. They started slow the last 2 years in a row, before getting their games in decent shape, and leading 2 different teams to a winning second half of a season.

I expect Pierce in particular to have another surge for the Wizards.

[hpantazo]

I think you are greatly undervaluing what 2012-2013 Pierce meant to the team offense, and most importantly, what 2012-2013 KG meant to the team defense. Heck, even 2012-2013 Bradley was much, much better defender than the 'new' Bradley.

As for Rondo, sure, it's a contract year, but he hasn't proven yet that he is able to return to his pre-injury form, or that he is willing to play that way and risk his health this season before getting his next contract.

Sullinger has talent, but he's still out of shape and may well come off the bench for Bass like he did last year.

Olynyk is a huge sieve in the middle on defense.

Our bench on paper is much better, I will give you that. It's hard not to be when compared to Shavlik Randolph and Jordan Crawford.

I think we are not even close to being as good as the 2012-2013 team. We will finish near the bottom of the eastern conference.

[Celtics4ever]

No we are not as good as that team.

[hwangjini_1]

First why am I asking this question? Because I want to see if our current roster has what it takes to go .500, that is all.

Lets compare rosters, I'll start with the starters.  The stats for this year's starters I'm taking from last season. The starters I chose from the 2012-2013 season are based on the amount of games they started.  I bolded my main points if you want to skim through it.

PG
Old Rondo: 13.7pts 11.1ast 5.6rbs 
Contract year Rondo thats healthy with a training camp could produce this or even surpass this.  It's a wash for now but likely this years team will have an advantage as Rondo will be playing hard for his contract every single night.

SG
Old Avery Bradley: 9.2pts 2.2ast 2.2 rbs
New Avery:          14.9pts 1.4ast 3.8rbs   Advantage goes to this years team by a lot.. he will be even better this year most likely.

SF
Paul Pierce: 18.6pts 6.3rbs 4.8ast     Advantage Old team Pierce but it's kind of close.
Jeff Green:  16.9pts 4.6rbs 1.7ast     

PF 
Brandon Bass:         8.7pts  5.2rbs  1.0ast
New Jared Sullinger: 13.3pts 8.1rbs 1.3ast        Advantage goes to Sullinger by a mile, this years Sully will out produce these stats even more, most likely.

C
Kevin Garnett:  14.8pts 7.8rbs 2.3ast 
Kelly Olynyk:    8.7pts 5.2rbs 1.6ast       
Advantage goes to the Old Team and KG by quite a bit.


I conclude, that this upcoming years starters are going to be better at the 1, 2, and 4 spot. They will remain close to the same but overall worse at the 5 and 3 spot.  That would leave 60% of our starters being better then a team that won 41 games in the regular season.  Even if you put Old Jeff Green in the lineup at 4, compared him to New Jared Sullinger and we have the advantage statistically.

Now ... lets look at the bench. I combined some of the positions to reflect more accurately how they were or will be used.

PG/SG/SF, combined stats per game
New team: Evan Turner, Marcus Thornton, Gerald Wallace: 29pts 12rbs 7ast 78mins
Old team: Jason Terry, Jordan Crawford, Courtney Lee:      27pts 7rbs 7ast 92mins

As you can see, our new bench guards are much much better players then our old ones. And then you throw in Phil Pressy, who is far and away a better back up PG then anyone on the old team... and Marcus Smart
Advantage: New Team

PF/C:
New Team: Tyler Zeller, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Joel Anthony
Old Team:  Rookie Jared Sullinger, Chris Wilcox, Shavlik Randolph (these last 2 are a stretch)

I'm not even going to add this up, the clear and away winner for which team had the best back up bigs is our new team. Rookie Sully did all he could for half a season, Wilcox filled in some, Shav some.. but it was enough to help us get over .500 on the year, and our bigs on the bench this year are much much better then those guys.

Our current roster is better then our 2012-2013 team, which makes me think we really could win half our games next season.

What do you guys think? Agree with any of my conclusions?

thank you for an interesting and well researched post. tp. only one point, the one i frequently belabor when this or a related topic arises....

check the celtics win-loss record for that year and you will see that the celtics record was BETTER WITHOUT RONDO. the celtics performed won at a better rate when rondo did not play.

i am at a loss at how to factor this oddity into our equations and projections, but it does tell us that we should not assume that rondo automatically makes the team better in terms of wins and losses.

[manl_lui]

First why am I asking this question? Because I want to see if our current roster has what it takes to go .500, that is all.

Lets compare rosters, I'll start with the starters.  The stats for this year's starters I'm taking from last season. The starters I chose from the 2012-2013 season are based on the amount of games they started.  I bolded my main points if you want to skim through it.

PG
Old Rondo: 13.7pts 11.1ast 5.6rbs 
Contract year Rondo thats healthy with a training camp could produce this or even surpass this.  It's a wash for now but likely this years team will have an advantage as Rondo will be playing hard for his contract every single night.

SG
Old Avery Bradley: 9.2pts 2.2ast 2.2 rbs
New Avery:          14.9pts 1.4ast 3.8rbs   Advantage goes to this years team by a lot.. he will be even better this year most likely.

SF
Paul Pierce: 18.6pts 6.3rbs 4.8ast     Advantage Old team Pierce but it's kind of close.
Jeff Green:  16.9pts 4.6rbs 1.7ast     

PF 
Brandon Bass:         8.7pts  5.2rbs  1.0ast
New Jared Sullinger: 13.3pts 8.1rbs 1.3ast        Advantage goes to Sullinger by a mile, this years Sully will out produce these stats even more, most likely.

C
Kevin Garnett:  14.8pts 7.8rbs 2.3ast 
Kelly Olynyk:    8.7pts 5.2rbs 1.6ast       
Advantage goes to the Old Team and KG by quite a bit.


I conclude, that this upcoming years starters are going to be better at the 1, 2, and 4 spot. They will remain close to the same but overall worse at the 5 and 3 spot.  That would leave 60% of our starters being better then a team that won 41 games in the regular season.  Even if you put Old Jeff Green in the lineup at 4, compared him to New Jared Sullinger and we have the advantage statistically.

Now ... lets look at the bench. I combined some of the positions to reflect more accurately how they were or will be used.

PG/SG/SF, combined stats per game
New team: Evan Turner, Marcus Thornton, Gerald Wallace: 29pts 12rbs 7ast 78mins
Old team: Jason Terry, Jordan Crawford, Courtney Lee:      27pts 7rbs 7ast 92mins

As you can see, our new bench guards are much much better players then our old ones. And then you throw in Phil Pressy, who is far and away a better back up PG then anyone on the old team... and Marcus Smart
Advantage: New Team

PF/C:
New Team: Tyler Zeller, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Joel Anthony
Old Team:  Rookie Jared Sullinger, Chris Wilcox, Shavlik Randolph (these last 2 are a stretch)

I'm not even going to add this up, the clear and away winner for which team had the best back up bigs is our new team. Rookie Sully did all he could for half a season, Wilcox filled in some, Shav some.. but it was enough to help us get over .500 on the year, and our bigs on the bench this year are much much better then those guys.

Our current roster is better then our 2012-2013 team, which makes me think we really could win half our games next season.

What do you guys think? Agree with any of my conclusions?

thank you for an interesting and well researched post. tp. only one point, the one i frequently belabor when this or a related topic arises....

check the celtics win-loss record for that year and you will see that the celtics record was BETTER WITHOUT RONDO. the celtics performed won at a better rate when rondo did not play.

i am at a loss at how to factor this oddity into our equations and projections, but it does tell us that we should not assume that rondo automatically makes the team better in terms of wins and losses.

I also agree with this, as Rondo didn't show much the past season returning from injury, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he just came back from injury.

However, Rondo didn't help much in the regular season, but we DEFINITELY missed playoff Rondo who is arguably a top 10 player in the playoffs, just see him play in 2010 (Cleveland series, Orlando series, LA series), 2012 (With Philly and with the Heat). Regular season Rondo - not impressed, playoff Rondo - love absolutely

[chambers]

offensively we might be close. I don't think we are as good because Pierce was a go to scorer, and KG was a go to scorer in the post quite often.

Defensively is where we will get destroyed. Bass was a better defender than Sully, and KG was a better defender than anyone on this team- particularly the big men. KG protected the rim like no other and like last year, there's no one that comes close to 50% of his effectiveness.

Avery Bradley's just scoring more because he's jacking up more shots (because KG and Pierce are gone!). His shooting has improved behind the arc by 8% and from the field by 3% but I'd rather have Pierce or KG shooting those 15 footers.

When we match up with teams with two skilled NBA big men in the paint, we are likely to be destroyed- just like last season.

You can compare rebounding and scoring and compare the two teams all you want, but if you're not going to factor in defense, what's the point?
The Cetlics in 2012-13 were a defensive minded team- they went for less rebounds because Doc  wanted them running back on defense. They had elite jumpshooters in Bass and KG stretching the floor. Pierce could create his own offense and finish much better than anyone on this current team.

To me it's not even close, the 2012 team would kill this squad. How would KO score on KG? Remember how badly KG schooled Spencer Hawes in 2011-12 playoffs? Spencer Hawes sucks, and although KO will hopefully be a better overall player, I don't think KO is as good as Hawes was back then- on either end.
Bass taking Sully away from the basket, or KG posting up KO down low.
This current roster wins maybe 33-35 games and that's if Rondo is ballin' and Smart becomes a 10 point, 4 rebound, 5 assist rookie.

[incoherent]

Yes you are right the old team is much better defensively, probably makes the difference in those 10 games.

[hwangjini_1]

First why am I asking this question? Because I want to see if our current roster has what it takes to go .500, that is all.

Lets compare rosters, I'll start with the starters.  The stats for this year's starters I'm taking from last season. The starters I chose from the 2012-2013 season are based on the amount of games they started.  I bolded my main points if you want to skim through it.

PG
Old Rondo: 13.7pts 11.1ast 5.6rbs 
Contract year Rondo thats healthy with a training camp could produce this or even surpass this.  It's a wash for now but likely this years team will have an advantage as Rondo will be playing hard for his contract every single night.

SG
Old Avery Bradley: 9.2pts 2.2ast 2.2 rbs
New Avery:          14.9pts 1.4ast 3.8rbs   Advantage goes to this years team by a lot.. he will be even better this year most likely.

SF
Paul Pierce: 18.6pts 6.3rbs 4.8ast     Advantage Old team Pierce but it's kind of close.
Jeff Green:  16.9pts 4.6rbs 1.7ast     

PF 
Brandon Bass:         8.7pts  5.2rbs  1.0ast
New Jared Sullinger: 13.3pts 8.1rbs 1.3ast        Advantage goes to Sullinger by a mile, this years Sully will out produce these stats even more, most likely.

C
Kevin Garnett:  14.8pts 7.8rbs 2.3ast 
Kelly Olynyk:    8.7pts 5.2rbs 1.6ast       
Advantage goes to the Old Team and KG by quite a bit.


I conclude, that this upcoming years starters are going to be better at the 1, 2, and 4 spot. They will remain close to the same but overall worse at the 5 and 3 spot.  That would leave 60% of our starters being better then a team that won 41 games in the regular season.  Even if you put Old Jeff Green in the lineup at 4, compared him to New Jared Sullinger and we have the advantage statistically.

Now ... lets look at the bench. I combined some of the positions to reflect more accurately how they were or will be used.

PG/SG/SF, combined stats per game
New team: Evan Turner, Marcus Thornton, Gerald Wallace: 29pts 12rbs 7ast 78mins
Old team: Jason Terry, Jordan Crawford, Courtney Lee:      27pts 7rbs 7ast 92mins

As you can see, our new bench guards are much much better players then our old ones. And then you throw in Phil Pressy, who is far and away a better back up PG then anyone on the old team... and Marcus Smart
Advantage: New Team

PF/C:
New Team: Tyler Zeller, Brandon Bass, Vitor Faverani, Joel Anthony
Old Team:  Rookie Jared Sullinger, Chris Wilcox, Shavlik Randolph (these last 2 are a stretch)

I'm not even going to add this up, the clear and away winner for which team had the best back up bigs is our new team. Rookie Sully did all he could for half a season, Wilcox filled in some, Shav some.. but it was enough to help us get over .500 on the year, and our bigs on the bench this year are much much better then those guys.

Our current roster is better then our 2012-2013 team, which makes me think we really could win half our games next season.

What do you guys think? Agree with any of my conclusions?

thank you for an interesting and well researched post. tp. only one point, the one i frequently belabor when this or a related topic arises....

check the celtics win-loss record for that year and you will see that the celtics record was BETTER WITHOUT RONDO. the celtics performed won at a better rate when rondo did not play.

i am at a loss at how to factor this oddity into our equations and projections, but it does tell us that we should not assume that rondo automatically makes the team better in terms of wins and losses.

I also agree with this, as Rondo didn't show much the past season returning from injury, but I will give him the benefit of the doubt that he just came back from injury.

However, Rondo didn't help much in the regular season, but we DEFINITELY missed playoff Rondo who is arguably a top 10 player in the playoffs, just see him play in 2010 (Cleveland series, Orlando series, LA series), 2012 (With Philly and with the Heat). Regular season Rondo - not impressed, playoff Rondo - love absolutely

just to be precise, yes. the team won more without rondo during the 13-14 season, when rondo was coming back from injury. but my point is that the previous season, prior to his injury, the celtics had a worse win-loss record with healthy rondo, and better win-loss record without any rondo.

[chambers]

Yes you are right the old team is much better defensively, probably makes the difference in those 10 games.

Sorry I re-read that and it came off quite harsh, I like your premise actually- my apologies.
 Regarding the topic, I think that Danny purposely builds these teams this way. Lack of defense, sign some scoring wings who aren't efficient but can put up nice numbers and improve with the right coach (ie Jordan Crawfrod last season, Thornton and Turner this year), and then work on defense with our young big men while we lose more than we win.

Now if we look at what the current squad looks like in 2 years if Rondo stays?
Then it could be a very nice team with Smart, Rondo, KO, Sully, Zeller, Bradley, Young etc..

Danny's just very clever the way he constructs these crappy teams- no point in winning too many games if you can help it in a rebuilding year where you won't make the playoffs.

[BballTim]

  You're breaking the team down player by player and doing the comparisons like that but that misses a lot. In part you have how good the individual players are compared to each other, but the fact that the team's core had been playing together for years makes quite a difference. Unfamiliar teammates and players coming in and out of a lineup can take a toll on the team's continuity.