Hibbert significantly reduces his opponents’ overall scoring efficiency on a nightly basis. I evaluated a set of thousands of NBA close-range shots in which an NBA big man was protecting the basket. These were shots from the 2012-13 regular season in which a qualifying interior defender was within 5 feet of the rim and also within 5 feet of the shot location.
In such cases, the opponents made 48 percent of their shots. When Hibbert was protecting the basket, however, the number dropped to 38 percent. Only one player in the NBA reduced close-range shooting efficiency more than Hibbert; of course, that was LARRY SANDERS!, who held opponents to a ghastly 32 percent. For context, both Marc Gasol and Tyson Chandler — the last two winners of the NBA Defensive Player of the Year Award — held opponents to a respectable 44 percent.
When Hibbert is protecting the basket, opponents’ close-range shots go in about as much as an average NBA midrange shot. This is incredible. If we’re not factoring in this kind of precipitous drop in opponents’ scoring efficiency when Hibbert is protecting the rim (which we’re not), then we’re not doing a good job assessing his impact or value as an NBA player.
At 26 years old, Hibbert is one of the most important players on a team in the conference finals, a plateau that Blake Griffin and David Lee have never reached. Still, Hibbert’s Player Efficiency Rating in the regular season was 17.3, placing him just below Amir Johnson and just above Kosta Koufos. With all due respect to those guys, something is awry here. Despite so-so defensive reputations, guys like Lee and Griffin are All-NBA performers with lucrative endorsement deals. Sure, they might “get you 20 and 10 every night,” but they might also give up 25 and 10 in the process. One problem is that the 20 and 10 are duly noted and factored into PER while the 25 and 10 allowed remain mostly unmeasured.
While it’s enticing to pat ourselves on the back and say basketball has entered its “advanced metrics” era, our inability to properly quantify the impact of players like Hibbert reminds us that we are still in the Stone Age.
- Kirk Goldsberry, Grantland
I'd take a risk with Hibbert.