Time to hype up Kelly Olynyk

[BballTim]

If KO starts and/or plays starter minutes he will be a 20/10 guy. He is only beginning to show his power. He is a very unique player, and will change the league.
KL has peaked and never played a playoff game. He would be very costly, and deplete the assets of the team tremendously. His stats are blown out of proportion because he is the number one option offensively and he is not asked to play defense. His job is to crash the boards.
Trading KO for KL would be foolish beyond comparison. KO makes everyone around him better. KL needs people around him to be better...

you wouldn't trade Kelly for KEvin Love?

Absolutely not... KO is going to be special...

SDHarleyguy, welcome to Celticsblog.  My prophecy foretold your coming.  All the way back on May 25th, 2013... a good month before Kelly Olynyk was drafted... I had a vision of a superfan.  I have long awaited your arrival.  It's great to finally see you here.

Back on May 25th, 2013... a full month prior to the 2013 NBA Draft, I created a thread entitled:  "BEGGING DANNY NOT TO TRADE [THE GUY PICKED #16]!!"   ... The thread was locked due to excessive snarkyness towards predictable Boston homer culture, but it's remains viewable here:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65134.msg1475497#msg1475497

In it, I created a "Mad Libs" of sorts... fully aware that whoever Ainge selected would be hyped beyond belief... all this has happened before... all this will happen again.  Here it is in it's glorious entirety.  My only regret is not foreseeing that we'd trade #16 for #13 on Draft night, but feel free to fill in the blanks as necessary:

Sorry guys.  This is just a placeholder thread.  We can fill in the blanks in 8-20 months when the irrational homerism really kicks in.  Until then, this should work.

Note:  Fill in as necessary

I keep reading all of this buzz (aka: unsubstantiated future rumor fabricated by hack sports writer pandering to Boston fanatics) that Danny is considering trading [Guy we will pick #16] in a package for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade [Guy we will pick #16]!!  If we do that, it will be just like [Billups or Joe Johnson] all over again!

[Guy we will pick #16] is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury].  Before [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury], he was projected to be a top 5 pick by [insert random draft blogger].   So basically, [Guy we will pick #16] should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of [random names of players picked 1-15].

I mean he's only [age of guy we will pick #16]!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade [Guy we will pick #16] for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  In a few years, I have no doubt that [Guy we will pick #16] will be better than [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  I mean, did you see what [Guy we will pick #16] did in [random summer league, preseason, d-league or garbage time performance that got completely overblown].  Flashes of brilliance!

[Guy we will pick #16] is simply getting held back by [whoever Boston's coach is], because [whoever Boston's coach is] hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over [player he shouldn't be getting minutes over].  The only thing [Guy we will pick #16] needs to work on is [severe talent deficiency and/or crippling weakness that will never go away] and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of [former/current star player who happens to play the same position and may or may not have struggled his first couple years].   I'm not even sure [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is even better than [Guy we will pick #16] right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, [Guy we will pick #16] has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than [random Boston player currently on the roster].  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. [Guy who we will pick #16] is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

/drop mic

... and to save you all the trouble... here is my prophecy with the blanks now filled in:

I keep reading all of this buzz that Danny is considering trading Olynyk in a package for Kevin Love.

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade Olynyk!!  If we do that, it will be just like Joe Johnson all over again!

Olynyk is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney.  Before Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney , he was projected to be a top 5 pick by torontoaces04 on RealGM.   So basically, Olynyk should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of Porter, McCollum, Bennett, etc.

I mean he's only 23 years old!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade Olynyk for Kevin Love.  In a few years, I have no doubt that Olynyk will be better than Love  I mean, did you see what Olynyk did in the summerleague game yesterday?  Flashes of brilliance!

Olynyk is simply getting held back by Stevens, because Stevens hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over Bass.  The only thing Olynyk needs to work on is defense and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of Dirk.   I'm not even sure Kevin Love is even better than Oly right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, Oly has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, Kevin Love is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than SULLY.  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. Kelly Olynyk is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

Not surprisingly, we already have some fans saying Marcus Smart in a Kevin Love trade is a deal-breaker.

  It's not unusual to see posts like this. I think they're made based on the assumption that either people generally don't pay attention to what they post or that nobody remembers the equally foolish posts that they've made. If you're going to get a kick about people overhyping Smart you should go back and read some of your "7-8 franchise cornerstones in the draft" posts, that's probably where some the overvaluing of these rookies started.

[rollie mass]

be interesting how much work he's doing on lateral quickness and vertical-he might wind up most improved player by season beginning by looks of highlites-he had so much room for improvement it could wind up extreme-his skills, as well as his deficiencies make him easy to want him to succeed -by the way that aaron gordon block he got up like a missile--

[DesertDweller]

As far as this Sully Vs. KO thing that posters are making an issue of. I look at it like this....when you draft people like this you are, number one, looking for improvement each year.
now Kelly has obviously listened to the coaches and put in his work in the weight room and his game looks a little smoother. he still tends to be a little sloppy and overplays sometimes.

I haven't seen Sully, who I thought was suppose to play in the Summer League Games. I've only heard rumors that his weight is up. it's almost impossible to evaluate, at this time, who's better and anyone who says they can, is talking out their a**!!!

[LarBrd33]

If KO starts and/or plays starter minutes he will be a 20/10 guy. He is only beginning to show his power. He is a very unique player, and will change the league.
KL has peaked and never played a playoff game. He would be very costly, and deplete the assets of the team tremendously. His stats are blown out of proportion because he is the number one option offensively and he is not asked to play defense. His job is to crash the boards.
Trading KO for KL would be foolish beyond comparison. KO makes everyone around him better. KL needs people around him to be better...

you wouldn't trade Kelly for KEvin Love?

Absolutely not... KO is going to be special...

SDHarleyguy, welcome to Celticsblog.  My prophecy foretold your coming.  All the way back on May 25th, 2013... a good month before Kelly Olynyk was drafted... I had a vision of a superfan.  I have long awaited your arrival.  It's great to finally see you here.

Back on May 25th, 2013... a full month prior to the 2013 NBA Draft, I created a thread entitled:  "BEGGING DANNY NOT TO TRADE [THE GUY PICKED #16]!!"   ... The thread was locked due to excessive snarkyness towards predictable Boston homer culture, but it's remains viewable here:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65134.msg1475497#msg1475497

In it, I created a "Mad Libs" of sorts... fully aware that whoever Ainge selected would be hyped beyond belief... all this has happened before... all this will happen again.  Here it is in it's glorious entirety.  My only regret is not foreseeing that we'd trade #16 for #13 on Draft night, but feel free to fill in the blanks as necessary:

Sorry guys.  This is just a placeholder thread.  We can fill in the blanks in 8-20 months when the irrational homerism really kicks in.  Until then, this should work.

Note:  Fill in as necessary

I keep reading all of this buzz (aka: unsubstantiated future rumor fabricated by hack sports writer pandering to Boston fanatics) that Danny is considering trading [Guy we will pick #16] in a package for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade [Guy we will pick #16]!!  If we do that, it will be just like [Billups or Joe Johnson] all over again!

[Guy we will pick #16] is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury].  Before [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury], he was projected to be a top 5 pick by [insert random draft blogger].   So basically, [Guy we will pick #16] should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of [random names of players picked 1-15].

I mean he's only [age of guy we will pick #16]!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade [Guy we will pick #16] for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  In a few years, I have no doubt that [Guy we will pick #16] will be better than [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  I mean, did you see what [Guy we will pick #16] did in [random summer league, preseason, d-league or garbage time performance that got completely overblown].  Flashes of brilliance!

[Guy we will pick #16] is simply getting held back by [whoever Boston's coach is], because [whoever Boston's coach is] hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over [player he shouldn't be getting minutes over].  The only thing [Guy we will pick #16] needs to work on is [severe talent deficiency and/or crippling weakness that will never go away] and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of [former/current star player who happens to play the same position and may or may not have struggled his first couple years].   I'm not even sure [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is even better than [Guy we will pick #16] right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, [Guy we will pick #16] has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than [random Boston player currently on the roster].  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. [Guy who we will pick #16] is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

/drop mic

... and to save you all the trouble... here is my prophecy with the blanks now filled in:

I keep reading all of this buzz that Danny is considering trading Olynyk in a package for Kevin Love.

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade Olynyk!!  If we do that, it will be just like Joe Johnson all over again!

Olynyk is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney.  Before Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney , he was projected to be a top 5 pick by torontoaces04 on RealGM.   So basically, Olynyk should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of Porter, McCollum, Bennett, etc.

I mean he's only 23 years old!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade Olynyk for Kevin Love.  In a few years, I have no doubt that Olynyk will be better than Love  I mean, did you see what Olynyk did in the summerleague game yesterday?  Flashes of brilliance!

Olynyk is simply getting held back by Stevens, because Stevens hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over Bass.  The only thing Olynyk needs to work on is defense and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of Dirk.   I'm not even sure Kevin Love is even better than Oly right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, Oly has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, Kevin Love is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than SULLY.  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. Kelly Olynyk is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

Not surprisingly, we already have some fans saying Marcus Smart in a Kevin Love trade is a deal-breaker.

  It's not unusual to see posts like this. I think they're made based on the assumption that either people generally don't pay attention to what they post or that nobody remembers the equally foolish posts that they've made. If you're going to get a kick about people overhyping Smart you should go back and read some of your "7-8 franchise cornerstones in the draft" posts, that's probably where some the overvaluing of these rookies started.

Tim, while we're dredging up the past... remember that one post where you liked Rondo?  Haha that was a good one. 

[vinnie]

During the last 16 games of the season, the last month, the Celtics scored 100.8 points per game.

During the first 66 games of the season the Celtics scored 95.1 points per game.

I think its a fair statement to say teams weren't playing very hard defense against the Celtics during the part of the season Olynyk shined most.

Not coincidentally Olynyk played his most minutes per game during the exact same period of the year.

I think that's something of a silly argument to make in knocking KO's statistical improvement through the season. It could just as well be argued that most teams play better as the season goes on, since they have time to gel as a group, they get into a rhythm with their shooting, and the rookies on a team improve with experience.

But no, it may not be coincidence that as KO played better he got more minutes and as the team benefited from a better-playing KO playing more, the team's offense improved.

The Celtics "gelled" together so well that even though they increased their points per game by 6 points per game, a massive improvement, they went 3-13 in that time?

Its not a silly argument its actually about as logical as it gets and the stats back it up.

Teams stopped playing serious defense against the Celtics. We saw time and again teams beating the Celtics with horrid first three quarters of basketball only to turn it on in the 4th quarter to win. This was like the most common observation of what was happening on this blog during that time.

Not coincidentally since the team had injury problems and were looking to develop youth, players like Olynyk, Johnson, Pressey and Babb started seeing major upticks in their minutes and consequently in their stats.

Olynyk improved during last season, his shooting touch and familiarity of the offense is proof of that but to deny that the teams weren't mailing it in defensively against the Celtics over the last 20-25% of the season is just turning a blind eye to reality and a very easily seen reason why Olynyk played so much better at the end of the season. Yes, his shots were falling. Yes, his confidence grew. Yes he played more minutes. But that was all a matter of contextual circumstance in which injuries to others, a team desire to play youth and other teams refusing to put in a full defensive effort against the C's played massive factors in those things happening as much as Kelly improving on his own did.

I won't deny Olynyk improved as the season went on. He certainly did. Part of that was definitely him. But to refuse to acknowledge that part of it was definitely the situation at hand is just being blinded by your love of the kid and hope he is something more than he may or may not be.

Great post, Nick. Nailed it. TP!

[Fred Roberts]

Teams clearly let up which helped Kelly's late season stats, but it's very OK imo to be excited about his potential with the C's.

7ft.
long hair.
short arms.
killer shooting w/ upside potential
solid ball handing & passing w/ upside potential
body improving heading into year #2

Like many other players, KO will struggle as the focal point and excel when he's a complementary piece along side other good players. Sure, he might have serious struggles with defenses hounding him but he could have huge success if the focus is on other threats in the offense.

Look at how Ryan Anderson blew up (pre-injury). I think KO has much more going for him than that guy. Team context will make a big difference for KO.

[arctic 3.0]

I'd love to see Oly next to a center like Larry Saunders (the good version)
Rondo, smart, green, Oly, Saunders.
Would need to upgrade the 3 with a shooter to open things up for rr, smart.
If we did that we'd have pg skills at 1,2&4, shooting at 3&4 slashing at 1,2 and d at 1,2&5.

[Tr1boy]

Teams clearly let up which helped Kelly's late season stats, but it's very OK imo to be excited about his potential with the C's.

7ft.
long hair.
short arms.
killer shooting w/ upside potential
solid ball handing & passing w/ upside potential
body improving heading into year #2

Like many other players, KO will struggle as the focal point and excel when he's a complementary piece along side other good players. Sure, he might have serious struggles with defenses hounding him but he could have huge success if the focus is on other threats in the offense.

Look at how Ryan Anderson blew up (pre-injury). I think KO has much more going for him than that guy. Team context will make a big difference for KO.

he has a longer reach than some centers in this league . The short arms thing is overblown.   The bigger issue is his narrow shoulders which he has beefed up since the end of last season and will continue to beef up

KO is going to be a very nice player in this league

[mmmmm]

Isn't there a CelticsBlog rule about not calling out other posters?

Is sarcastically, barely semi-indirectly making fun of a poster just because he likes a player really necessary?

Can we trim the quote blocks a bit?

Back on topic - No telling how good Olynyk will end up.   All we have at the moment is some nice, positive progression.  He's playing better in SL because, well, he should be playing better in SL (compared to a year ago).   That shouldn't be cause for overreaction but at the same time it shouldn't be downplayed, either.

'Hard to get a full read on any of the individual Celtics from last year, given how the season played out, but I think that works both ways.   Some of the positives may be over-amplified by the context, but so too were some of the negatives.

One continuing frustration is simply not really seeing how the supposed 'core' of RR+AB+JG+KO+JS might play together because, well, they didn't.      They barely played just 14 total minutes together.  Even when they were all healthy at the same time. 

Instead we saw all kinds of imbalanced, strangely-composed 5-man units on the floor that often featured certain veterans that probably have no real future with this team.    Sheesh - our defense whenever Jerryd Bayless was at SG was just awful.  How does that help us project how the rest of the team was playing?

[LarBrd33]

I'd love to see Oly next to a center like Larry Saunders (the good version)
Rondo, smart, green, Oly, Saunders.
Would need to upgrade the 3 with a shooter to open things up for rr, smart.
If we did that we'd have pg skills at 1,2&4, shooting at 3&4 slashing at 1,2 and d at 1,2&5.

If Oly continues to progress... I agree it would be great to see him next to a rim protector.

Shame there aren't more players like KG... elite rim protection while also possessing above-average mid-range game.  You need those kind of players spreading the floor when most of your guards are incapable of shooting and get their buckets on penetration.

[The Oracle]

  What nickagneta posted simply isnt true!  Here are K.O.'s on off #'s for the whole year. 
        (K.O. on court)   (Off court)
       (per 48) +/-
Nov.    96.1(-5.0)        91.8(-2.7)
Dec.   101.1(+8.0)       97.8(-0.1)
Jan.    100.6(-4.7)       89.2(-11.1)
Feb.   100.3(+3.4)       98.4(-3.3)
Mar.   102.5(+5.3)       89.7(-14.5)
Apr.   110.1(+1.6)       96.1(-16.2)

column 1 shows pts scored per 48 minutes while K.O. is on the floor!
column 2 shows whether they outscored their opponents or not!
column 3 shows pts scored per 48 when K.O. is not on the floor!
column 4 shows same as #2
 
  As you can see the C's offense was way better with K.O. on the court the whole year!  Also you can see the +/- data showing how much better they were!  The celtics offense without Kelly on the floor was basically the leagues worst!  On the year the offense without kelly averaged 93.2 pts.  With him on the court the offense produced 101 pts.  This was not some end of season aberration!!

[vinnie]

  What nickagneta posted simply isnt true!  Here are K.O.'s on off #'s for the whole year. 
        (K.O. on court)   (Off court)
       (per 48) +/-
Nov.    96.1(-5.0)        91.8(-2.7)
Dec.   101.1(+8.0)       97.8(-0.1)
Jan.    100.6(-4.7)       89.2(-11.1)
Feb.   100.3(+3.4)       98.4(-3.3)
Mar.   102.5(+5.3)       89.7(-14.5)
Apr.   110.1(+1.6)       96.1(-16.2)

  As you can see the C's offense was way better with K.O. on the court the whole year!  Also you can see the +/- data showing how much better they were!  The celtics offense without Kelly on the floor was basically the leagues worst!  On the year the offense without kelly averaged 93.2 pts.  With him on the court the offense produced 101 pts.  This was not some end of season aberration!!

Not trying to be dense, but I don't understand these numbers. What do the numbers in the parentheses mean?

[Vox_Populi]

As soon as Rondo sees one of Bradley, Smart or Pressey consistently make post entry passes, then he'll be worried.

[D.o.s.]

  What nickagneta posted simply isnt true!  Here are K.O.'s on off #'s for the whole year. 
        (K.O. on court)   (Off court)
       (per 48) +/-
Nov.    96.1(-5.0)        91.8(-2.7)
Dec.   101.1(+8.0)       97.8(-0.1)
Jan.    100.6(-4.7)       89.2(-11.1)
Feb.   100.3(+3.4)       98.4(-3.3)
Mar.   102.5(+5.3)       89.7(-14.5)
Apr.   110.1(+1.6)       96.1(-16.2)

  As you can see the C's offense was way better with K.O. on the court the whole year!  Also you can see the +/- data showing how much better they were!  The celtics offense without Kelly on the floor was basically the leagues worst!  On the year the offense without kelly averaged 93.2 pts.  With him on the court the offense produced 101 pts.  This was not some end of season aberration!!

Not trying to be dense, but I don't understand these numbers. What do the numbers in the parentheses mean?

Its the net rating with and without Kelly, I believe.
Edit: its not even that, its net on/off, which is even less nuanced. The rest of my post still applies.

Of course, that's a trickier stat than most people suppose, since its rare that you delve into it enough to really break down the lineups, and there was so much noise going on with players going in and out of the lineup due to injury or trade that you can't definitively say Olynyk was the sole reason why those lineups were doing well.

Anyone who's interested can play around with the numbers here, and with a little massaging you can make Kelly either look like a complete scrub or the Celtics savior (though the first is a little easier to manage than the second):

http://stats.nba.com/teamLineups.html?TeamID=1610612738&pageNo=1&rowsPerPage=25&columnOrder=&MeasureType=Advanced&PerMode=Totals&sortField=GP&sortOrder=DES&filters=

[Chris22]

Olynyk looked lost today.