Time to hype up Kelly Olynyk

[knuckleballer]

During the last 16 games of the season, the last month, the Celtics scored 100.8 points per game.

During the first 66 games of the season the Celtics scored 95.1 points per game.

I think its a fair statement to say teams weren't playing very hard defense against the Celtics during the part of the season Olynyk shined most.

Not coincidentally Olynyk played his most minutes per game during the exact same period of the year.

or the team scored more because Olynyk was playing more and playing well.  I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.

[clover]

During the last 16 games of the season, the last month, the Celtics scored 100.8 points per game.

During the first 66 games of the season the Celtics scored 95.1 points per game.

I think its a fair statement to say teams weren't playing very hard defense against the Celtics during the part of the season Olynyk shined most.

Not coincidentally Olynyk played his most minutes per game during the exact same period of the year.

I think that's something of a silly argument to make in knocking KO's statistical improvement through the season. It could just as well be argued that most teams play better as the season goes on, since they have time to gel as a group, they get into a rhythm with their shooting, and the rookies on a team improve with experience.

But no, it may not be coincidence that as KO played better he got more minutes and as the team benefited from a better-playing KO playing more, the team's offense improved.

[pokeKingCurtis]

During the last 16 games of the season, the last month, the Celtics scored 100.8 points per game.

During the first 66 games of the season the Celtics scored 95.1 points per game.

I think its a fair statement to say teams weren't playing very hard defense against the Celtics during the part of the season Olynyk shined most.

Not coincidentally Olynyk played his most minutes per game during the exact same period of the year.

or the team scored more because Olynyk was playing more and playing well.  I suspect the answer is somewhere in the middle.

It almost always is.

Tank vs. not tank.

Rondo.

All this eternal bickering.

[nickagneta]

During the last 16 games of the season, the last month, the Celtics scored 100.8 points per game.

During the first 66 games of the season the Celtics scored 95.1 points per game.

I think its a fair statement to say teams weren't playing very hard defense against the Celtics during the part of the season Olynyk shined most.

Not coincidentally Olynyk played his most minutes per game during the exact same period of the year.

I think that's something of a silly argument to make in knocking KO's statistical improvement through the season. It could just as well be argued that most teams play better as the season goes on, since they have time to gel as a group, they get into a rhythm with their shooting, and the rookies on a team improve with experience.

But no, it may not be coincidence that as KO played better he got more minutes and as the team benefited from a better-playing KO playing more, the team's offense improved.

The Celtics "gelled" together so well that even though they increased their points per game by 6 points per game, a massive improvement, they went 3-13 in that time?

Its not a silly argument its actually about as logical as it gets and the stats back it up.

Teams stopped playing serious defense against the Celtics. We saw time and again teams beating the Celtics with horrid first three quarters of basketball only to turn it on in the 4th quarter to win. This was like the most common observation of what was happening on this blog during that time.

Not coincidentally since the team had injury problems and were looking to develop youth, players like Olynyk, Johnson, Pressey and Babb started seeing major upticks in their minutes and consequently in their stats.

Olynyk improved during last season, his shooting touch and familiarity of the offense is proof of that but to deny that the teams weren't mailing it in defensively against the Celtics over the last 20-25% of the season is just turning a blind eye to reality and a very easily seen reason why Olynyk played so much better at the end of the season. Yes, his shots were falling. Yes, his confidence grew. Yes he played more minutes. But that was all a matter of contextual circumstance in which injuries to others, a team desire to play youth and other teams refusing to put in a full defensive effort against the C's played massive factors in those things happening as much as Kelly improving on his own did.

I won't deny Olynyk improved as the season went on. He certainly did. Part of that was definitely him. But to refuse to acknowledge that part of it was definitely the situation at hand is just being blinded by your love of the kid and hope he is something more than he may or may not be.

[Mazingerz]

Yes ...

KO= new White Durrant

Nope. He is the second coming of Larry Bird. He will lead us to the promised land again. 

[Celtics18]

Yet another impressive appearance in the summer league for Kelly Olynyk.  He showed off a toned up and more athletic body and the results showed on the court.  20 points 8 rebounds and 4 steals.

Boxscore:
http://i.imgur.com/y6kWcLI.png

I think it is becoming gradually obvious who the best PF on the Celtics roster is right now.  I would not be surprised if KO is not at MINIMUM a 15-7 player this season as long as he gets at least 25-30 minutes per game.  He can make shots from all ranges and his 7' size is always an advantage.

I think Olynyk could easily become a #2 option in an offense if he continues on this upward trend.

We're still lacking that #1 scoring option, but at least we have a couple of more pieces in Smart and Young, and KO should emerge for a breakout season in 2014.  Calling it right now!

Do I still want Love?  Yes.  Can we ship off some combination of Sully, Jeff Green, and 1st round picks for him?

while i hope you are right, i have doubts olly can put up 15 and 7 next season. let's have some context to help us here.

most seasons between 400 to 500 players are in the nba over the course of a season.

last year, a total of 14 players averaged at least 15 points and 7 rebounds. 14. that represents about 3% to 4% of the total number of players. not a lot.

will olly be so good as to rank among the top 4% of all players of the nba in scoring and rebounds? we can hope, but i wouldn't put money on it.

how about from 13-15 pts and 7 reb avg

KO will do that next season.

After the AS break as a rookie last year, KO shot .511 overall, including .426 from the 3 and .818 on FTs. He averaged 18.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. I really don't understand why people think that being an eventual 20-10 performer is so far out of his reach.

Because you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample size, taken during a non=competitive part of the schedule where teams stopped showing up defensively against the Celtics. Also, you are using Per36 stats, not per game stats.

His defense was so bad he wouldn't ever average enough minutes to justify being on the court to get enough time to reach 20/10. Also he was fouling out in 36 MPG. So that's another factor that would keep him off the court and not allow him to get 20/10.

Unless KO suddenly turns into a vastly superior defender or starts getting superstar treatment by the refs where they look the other way on all his fouls, he isn't coming near 20/10 next year.

As I said earlier, if he can improve on last years numbers of 9/5/1...that's gotta be a good thing and probably the thing we should most hope for. Putting these unrealistic expectations on this kid is just not fair to him.

Not only did Kelly put up very good numbers over the last thirty games he played in, but the team performed considerable better with him on the court than off the court according to his +/- numbers at BasketballReference.  As a matter of fact, his combined plus/minus over that stretch was a very healthy plus 49 over the course of the last thirty games.  For someone playing on a team that only won eight games over that stretch, that's an impressive number.  Nobody else on the team had plus/minus close to as positive as Kelly's over that stretch.

So, you can go ahead and say that his success was due to the opposition not trying against Kelly.  Apparently, they were trying against all the rest of the Celtics, and they were trying harder when Kelly wasn't on the floor. 

Maybe, everybody just felt bad for Kelly specifically, and didn't really want to try too hard against him.  It's kind of like when we are playing against our children in the back yard as they are just learning the game, and we go easy on them to help them build confidence.

Yeah, maybe that was it.  It certainly can't have been that he was actually good enough to have a positive impact on the team due to his play.  Can it?

[hwangjini_1]

Yet another impressive appearance in the summer league for Kelly Olynyk.  He showed off a toned up and more athletic body and the results showed on the court.  20 points 8 rebounds and 4 steals.

Boxscore:
http://i.imgur.com/y6kWcLI.png

I think it is becoming gradually obvious who the best PF on the Celtics roster is right now.  I would not be surprised if KO is not at MINIMUM a 15-7 player this season as long as he gets at least 25-30 minutes per game.  He can make shots from all ranges and his 7' size is always an advantage.

I think Olynyk could easily become a #2 option in an offense if he continues on this upward trend.

We're still lacking that #1 scoring option, but at least we have a couple of more pieces in Smart and Young, and KO should emerge for a breakout season in 2014.  Calling it right now!

Do I still want Love?  Yes.  Can we ship off some combination of Sully, Jeff Green, and 1st round picks for him?

while i hope you are right, i have doubts olly can put up 15 and 7 next season. let's have some context to help us here.

most seasons between 400 to 500 players are in the nba over the course of a season.

last year, a total of 14 players averaged at least 15 points and 7 rebounds. 14. that represents about 3% to 4% of the total number of players. not a lot.

will olly be so good as to rank among the top 4% of all players of the nba in scoring and rebounds? we can hope, but i wouldn't put money on it.

how about from 13-15 pts and 7 reb avg

KO will do that next season.

After the AS break as a rookie last year, KO shot .511 overall, including .426 from the 3 and .818 on FTs. He averaged 18.8 points and 9.9 rebounds per 36 minutes. I really don't understand why people think that being an eventual 20-10 performer is so far out of his reach.

Because you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample size, taken during a non=competitive part of the schedule where teams stopped showing up defensively against the Celtics. Also, you are using Per36 stats, not per game stats.

His defense was so bad he wouldn't ever average enough minutes to justify being on the court to get enough time to reach 20/10. Also he was fouling out in 36 MPG. So that's another factor that would keep him off the court and not allow him to get 20/10.

Unless KO suddenly turns into a vastly superior defender or starts getting superstar treatment by the refs where they look the other way on all his fouls, he isn't coming near 20/10 next year.

As I said earlier, if he can improve on last years numbers of 9/5/1...that's gotta be a good thing and probably the thing we should most hope for. Putting these unrealistic expectations on this kid is just not fair to him.

Not only did Kelly put up very good numbers over the last thirty games he played in, but the team performed considerable better with him on the court than off the court according to his +/- numbers at BasketballReference.  As a matter of fact, his combined plus/minus over that stretch was a very healthy plus 49 over the course of the last thirty games.  For someone playing on a team that only won eight games over that stretch, that's an impressive number.  Nobody else on the team had plus/minus close to as positive as Kelly's over that stretch.

So, you can go ahead and say that his success was due to the opposition not trying against Kelly.  Apparently, they were trying against all the rest of the Celtics, and they were trying harder when Kelly wasn't on the floor. 

Maybe, everybody just felt bad for Kelly specifically, and didn't really want to try too hard against him.  It's kind of like when we are playing against our children in the back yard as they are just learning the game, and we go easy on them to help them build confidence.

Yeah, maybe that was it.  It certainly can't have been that he was actually good enough to have a positive impact on the team due to his play.  Can it?

i have no dog in this fight and i have been an olly booster since the start. however, nick raises very strong arguments about olly's ability to put up 20/10. these are extremely rarified numbers we are talking about.

sometimes cb enthusiasm gets the best of us. the predictions last season about rondo coming back from injury and turning losses into wins, and, jeff green averaging lots and lots of points and rebounds are two such examples. proof, of a sort, was trotted out, but reality proved otherwise.

nick brings out that it is a small, and potentially tainted, sample at the end of the year for judging olly going forward. he also shows that olly is foul prone. nick makes the good point that  no one really focused on olly defensively, nor many other celtics. if olly really starts putting up 20/10 on a consistent basis you can rest assured the defense will start making him work like hell for his points.

i dont see people really addressing nick's points and effectively, or powerfully, refuting them.

all nick is doing is raising the dreaded spectre of pragmatism, which is healthy in our discussions.

[LarBrd33]

If KO starts and/or plays starter minutes he will be a 20/10 guy. He is only beginning to show his power. He is a very unique player, and will change the league.
KL has peaked and never played a playoff game. He would be very costly, and deplete the assets of the team tremendously. His stats are blown out of proportion because he is the number one option offensively and he is not asked to play defense. His job is to crash the boards.
Trading KO for KL would be foolish beyond comparison. KO makes everyone around him better. KL needs people around him to be better...

you wouldn't trade Kelly for KEvin Love?

Absolutely not... KO is going to be special...

SDHarleyguy, welcome to Celticsblog.  My prophecy foretold your coming.  All the way back on May 25th, 2013... a good month before Kelly Olynyk was drafted... I had a vision of a superfan.  I have long awaited your arrival.  It's great to finally see you here.

Back on May 25th, 2013... a full month prior to the 2013 NBA Draft, I created a thread entitled:  "BEGGING DANNY NOT TO TRADE [THE GUY PICKED #16]!!"   ... The thread was locked due to excessive snarkyness towards predictable Boston homer culture, but it's remains viewable here:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65134.msg1475497#msg1475497

In it, I created a "Mad Libs" of sorts... fully aware that whoever Ainge selected would be hyped beyond belief... all this has happened before... all this will happen again.  Here it is in it's glorious entirety.  My only regret is not foreseeing that we'd trade #16 for #13 on Draft night, but feel free to fill in the blanks as necessary:

Sorry guys.  This is just a placeholder thread.  We can fill in the blanks in 8-20 months when the irrational homerism really kicks in.  Until then, this should work.

Note:  Fill in as necessary

I keep reading all of this buzz (aka: unsubstantiated future rumor fabricated by hack sports writer pandering to Boston fanatics) that Danny is considering trading [Guy we will pick #16] in a package for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade [Guy we will pick #16]!!  If we do that, it will be just like [Billups or Joe Johnson] all over again!

[Guy we will pick #16] is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury].  Before [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury], he was projected to be a top 5 pick by [insert random draft blogger].   So basically, [Guy we will pick #16] should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of [random names of players picked 1-15].

I mean he's only [age of guy we will pick #16]!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade [Guy we will pick #16] for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  In a few years, I have no doubt that [Guy we will pick #16] will be better than [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  I mean, did you see what [Guy we will pick #16] did in [random summer league, preseason, d-league or garbage time performance that got completely overblown].  Flashes of brilliance!

[Guy we will pick #16] is simply getting held back by [whoever Boston's coach is], because [whoever Boston's coach is] hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over [player he shouldn't be getting minutes over].  The only thing [Guy we will pick #16] needs to work on is [severe talent deficiency and/or crippling weakness that will never go away] and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of [former/current star player who happens to play the same position and may or may not have struggled his first couple years].   I'm not even sure [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is even better than [Guy we will pick #16] right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, [Guy we will pick #16] has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than [random Boston player currently on the roster].  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. [Guy who we will pick #16] is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

/drop mic

[greg683x]

sigh

only 4 months until the regular season

[LarBrd33]

If KO starts and/or plays starter minutes he will be a 20/10 guy. He is only beginning to show his power. He is a very unique player, and will change the league.
KL has peaked and never played a playoff game. He would be very costly, and deplete the assets of the team tremendously. His stats are blown out of proportion because he is the number one option offensively and he is not asked to play defense. His job is to crash the boards.
Trading KO for KL would be foolish beyond comparison. KO makes everyone around him better. KL needs people around him to be better...

you wouldn't trade Kelly for KEvin Love?

Absolutely not... KO is going to be special...

SDHarleyguy, welcome to Celticsblog.  My prophecy foretold your coming.  All the way back on May 25th, 2013... a good month before Kelly Olynyk was drafted... I had a vision of a superfan.  I have long awaited your arrival.  It's great to finally see you here.

Back on May 25th, 2013... a full month prior to the 2013 NBA Draft, I created a thread entitled:  "BEGGING DANNY NOT TO TRADE [THE GUY PICKED #16]!!"   ... The thread was locked due to excessive snarkyness towards predictable Boston homer culture, but it's remains viewable here:  http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=65134.msg1475497#msg1475497

In it, I created a "Mad Libs" of sorts... fully aware that whoever Ainge selected would be hyped beyond belief... all this has happened before... all this will happen again.  Here it is in it's glorious entirety.  My only regret is not foreseeing that we'd trade #16 for #13 on Draft night, but feel free to fill in the blanks as necessary:

Sorry guys.  This is just a placeholder thread.  We can fill in the blanks in 8-20 months when the irrational homerism really kicks in.  Until then, this should work.

Note:  Fill in as necessary

I keep reading all of this buzz (aka: unsubstantiated future rumor fabricated by hack sports writer pandering to Boston fanatics) that Danny is considering trading [Guy we will pick #16] in a package for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade [Guy we will pick #16]!!  If we do that, it will be just like [Billups or Joe Johnson] all over again!

[Guy we will pick #16] is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury].  Before [perfectly valid draft-slipping reason based on poor performance and/or chronic injury], he was projected to be a top 5 pick by [insert random draft blogger].   So basically, [Guy we will pick #16] should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of [random names of players picked 1-15].

I mean he's only [age of guy we will pick #16]!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade [Guy we will pick #16] for [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  In a few years, I have no doubt that [Guy we will pick #16] will be better than [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps].  I mean, did you see what [Guy we will pick #16] did in [random summer league, preseason, d-league or garbage time performance that got completely overblown].  Flashes of brilliance!

[Guy we will pick #16] is simply getting held back by [whoever Boston's coach is], because [whoever Boston's coach is] hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over [player he shouldn't be getting minutes over].  The only thing [Guy we will pick #16] needs to work on is [severe talent deficiency and/or crippling weakness that will never go away] and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of [former/current star player who happens to play the same position and may or may not have struggled his first couple years].   I'm not even sure [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is even better than [Guy we will pick #16] right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, [Guy we will pick #16] has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, [star player or elite prospect whose team has no interest in trading for Boston's scraps] is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than [random Boston player currently on the roster].  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. [Guy who we will pick #16] is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

/drop mic

... and to save you all the trouble... here is my prophecy with the blanks now filled in:

I keep reading all of this buzz that Danny is considering trading Olynyk in a package for Kevin Love.

I feel the need to say this would be a HORRIBLE idea and I'm begging Danny Ainge NOT to do it.   Under no circumstances should EVER we trade Olynyk!!  If we do that, it will be just like Joe Johnson all over again!

Olynyk is a future star in this league!  He only slipped in the draft, because of Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney.  Before Wichita State upset Gonzaga in the tourney , he was projected to be a top 5 pick by torontoaces04 on RealGM.   So basically, Olynyk should have been a top 5 pick! He was clearly the steal of the draft.  If they re-did the draft today, he'd clearly be picked ahead of Porter, McCollum, Bennett, etc.

I mean he's only 23 years old!   It would be absolutely foolish to trade Olynyk for Kevin Love.  In a few years, I have no doubt that Olynyk will be better than Love  I mean, did you see what Olynyk did in the summerleague game yesterday?  Flashes of brilliance!

Olynyk is simply getting held back by Stevens, because Stevens hates young players.  He clearly should be getting minutes over Bass.  The only thing Olynyk needs to work on is defense and he'll be a hall-of-famer!  He reminds me a lot of Dirk.   I'm not even sure Kevin Love is even better than Oly right now... he just has a bigger role.

Also, Oly has a far more favorable contract.  Plus, Kevin Love is severely overrated imho.  I'm not even sure he's better than SULLY.  I'm begging Danny NOT to do it. Kelly Olynyk is the future of the Boston Celtics and a key part of our future championship core.   

Not surprisingly, we already have some fans saying Marcus Smart in a Kevin Love trade is a deal-breaker. 

[D.o.s.]

You can't call your own dropped mic.

Also: reductivism doesn't suit you -- I much prefer the Cribbed Simmons. You do it a lot better than some on here.

[LarBrd33]

You can't call your own dropped mic.

lol

SHUT IT DOWN. 



Trying to give myself TP's but it's not working.

EDIT:  I also want to preemptively swear on my life that I did NOT create the SDHarleyguy account.  I've been anxiously awaiting someone to go overboard over [GUY WE TOOK #16] since before we even drafted anyone.  Worth it.

[D.o.s.]

full disclosure: I totally agree with you. 

TP for the Vince gif. Excellent body and fantastic flavor.

Also -- this is the last time we'll see D-League Nowitzki. KO probs won't play summer league next year.

[vjcsmoke]

Because you are dealing with a ridiculously small sample size, taken during a non=competitive part of the schedule where teams stopped showing up defensively against the Celtics. Also, you are using Per36 stats, not per game stats.

If 30 games is a ridiculously small sample size, does that mean he was just lucky over all those 30 NBA games?  Or how about your theory that the other teams 'laid down' because that's what professional teams do.  Don't buy it.

His defense was so bad he wouldn't ever average enough minutes to justify being on the court to get enough time to reach 20/10. Also he was fouling out in 36 MPG. So that's another factor that would keep him off the court and not allow him to get 20/10.

So how terrible is Love's defense and how did he manage to score 20/10 with that 'horrible' D?  There are plenty of scorers in the NBA that don't have even average defense.  Your premise is also based on the assumption that Kelly's defense will NEVER improve.  It's going to be only his second year in the league.  He's young and still has ceiling to improve.  In fact he showed increased agility and quickness during his second summer league so I'm not buying that either.

Unless KO suddenly turns into a vastly superior defender or starts getting superstar treatment by the refs where they look the other way on all his fouls, he isn't coming near 20/10 next year.

Strawman arguments.  How about unless KO plays less than 20 mpg, it is quite likely he becomes at least a 15/7 player.  If he averages over 30 mpg, the 20/10 mark is achievable but a more realistic number would be 17.5/8 in only his second full NBA season.

As I said earlier, if he can improve on last years numbers of 9/5/1...that's gotta be a good thing and probably the thing we should most hope for. Putting these unrealistic expectations on this kid is just not fair to him.

Nor is it fair to tear Olynyk down just because you fear overly high expectations.  I expect to see at the minimum a leap to 13/7 if he averages around 25 mpg.  If he gets 30+ I can see 17/8 being a real, real possibility.

Question - Who gives you more reason for optimism after seeing their second year body and play -- Sullinger or Olynyk?

[Otsje P]

Read all this over hyping of Kelly, just had to write my first post in this topic. Kelly's skills are obvious, to bad his weaknesses are too. He is just not a strong person. You saw him fail miserably when attempting a turnaround jumper when hiss defender bumped him.

Some peoples expectations seem ridicules to me. With increased minutes, he will play significant time against opponents starters. He will be completely abused by the Dirks, Boshes, Aldridges, Loves from this world. There will always be a place in this league for good shooting big men, but for Kelly to be a star, he will need to get much, much more stronger. He is so easily bumped out of balance.

And people's disrespect of Sully's performance from last year is something i don't get as well. Some people here expect Kelly to reach 13-15 and 7 if he would play starters minutes, and therefore would pick him over Sully. Do people need to be reminded that Sully managed to nearly get to 14 and 8, in just over 27 minutes of play. While playing out of position and coming of surgery and being a bit forced to take to much inefficient threes. While he also had to use extremely much energies defending big and heavy centers.

If Sully can take his body just a little step further, he'll be 5 minutes extra on court, and he will be a 15 and 10 guy. He needs just a point and 2 boards extra for those numbers.

I would say that is a much more realistic prediction, than to expect Kelly to easily double his numbers in his next season.

(I'm from the Netherlands, so forgive me my mistakes in writing. Never sure when to use "to or too", for example)