Woj: Celtics in Play for Embiid

[bknova]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Food for thought: This model gives Marcus Smart a 32% chance of becoming a star (2nd only to Embiid and this model doesn't reflect his health woes).  It gives Gordon a 27% chance, which is equal to Wiggins.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdHRtcThFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=9

I got no stats to back anything up. All just gut.  I think the difference between the top 7, 8 players in this draft isn't so dynamically great that any one of them could fairly easily turn out to be the best player of the class.

[CM0]

I am a huge Smart guy, I am fine with drafting him and shipping Rondo and start the rebuild with him...

I like drafting Smart and keeping Rondo, and I think the Celtics NEED to draft Smart if they plan on shipping Rondo.

[TwinTower14]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Food for thought: This model gives Marcus Smart a 32% chance of becoming a star (2nd only to Embiid and this model doesn't reflect his health woes).  It gives Gordon a 27% chance, which is equal to Wiggins.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdHRtcThFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=9

I got no stats to back anything up. All just gut.  I think the difference between the top 7, 8 players in this draft isn't so dynamically great that any one of them could fairly easily turn out to be the best player of the class.

Love the fact that he took on everyone during his pre-draft workouts...

[MBunge]

It's amazing to me that so many are willing to risk such a high pick on a guy who has a GREAT chance of never being healthy. I'd really be frustrated if we take Embiid and he's Greg Oden 2.0. This entire year would have been for naught.

Wait, what are we risking.  At 6, presumably Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Smart, and one of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle are off the board. 
At 6, we are risking not drafting whichever two players of Gordon/Vonleh/Randle/Smart are still on the board.  At 3, your risking not picking 4 of those guys.

Gordon is going to have a long, solid, but not spectacular NBA career, as is Smart.  Randle could make some all star teams.  Vonleh might too.  I don't see any one of those 4 as a centerpiece on championship team. All could be solid rotation players, a couple starters but none the go to guy.  Whereas Exum, Wiggins, and Parker can all be that guy.  To me the risk is minimal at 6.

Food for thought: This model gives Marcus Smart a 32% chance of becoming a star (2nd only to Embiid and this model doesn't reflect his health woes).  It gives Gordon a 27% chance, which is equal to Wiggins.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0Aipd_3kGfREgdHRtcThFd3ZtMlRPYldIRmdGb241RlE&usp=drive_web#gid=9

I got no stats to back anything up. All just gut.  I think the difference between the top 7, 8 players in this draft isn't so dynamically great that any one of them could fairly easily turn out to be the best player of the class.

Love the fact that he took on everyone during his pre-draft workouts...

I'm warming up more and more to Smart.  Like Wiggins and Parker, he didn't meet the super high expectations people had for him but he's a far fiercer competitor than one and much better defender than the other.

Mike

[D.o.s.]

If Embiid's off the board and we don't have any solid trade options, I'd love Smart.

I'd actually prefer him to Embiid, from a fan's perspective, but you can't pass on that dude unless one of his feet is about to fall off.

[crownontherocks]

According a source, the #Sixers asked Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh to work out for this morning. It's unknown if they accepted.

Keith pompey


He could slide to us if sixers pass on him

[knuckleballer]

According a source, the #Sixers asked Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh to work out for this morning. It's unknown if they accepted.

Keith pompey


He could slide to us if sixers pass on him

I'll be psyched if the Sixers take Randle.  That means the Celtics don't take him and everyone slides down a slot.

[mnshyn]

At this point, any draft movement by the #Celtics will likely be down, not up. #CelicsTalk
- @SherrodbCSN

Hearing same RT @SherrodbCSN: At this point, any draft movement by the #Celtics will likely be down, not up. #CelicsTalk
- @sam_amick

Both Amick and Sherrod are saying that we may trade down if we are looking to trade.  Wonder what the play there would be.

[LarBrd33]

According a source, the #Sixers asked Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh to work out for this morning. It's unknown if they accepted.

Keith pompey


He could slide to us if sixers pass on him

I'll be psyched if the Sixers take Randle.  That means the Celtics don't take him and everyone slides down a slot.

If the Sixers take Randle/Vonleh 3rd.. promptly followed by Exum and them Embiid.... we will never live down that coin flip.

[LarBrd33]

Both Amick and Sherrod are saying that we may trade down if we are looking to trade.  Wonder what the play there would be.

Taking Gordon #6 is probably too high.  Prob trade down to get him at #10 or something + pick up a 2nd.

[Waew]

Both Amick and Sherrod are saying that we may trade down if we are looking to trade.  Wonder what the play there would be.

Taking Gordon #6 is probably too high.  Prob trade down to get him at #10 or something + pick up a 2nd.

there no way gordon is there after 7 let alone 8.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Both Amick and Sherrod are saying that we may trade down if we are looking to trade.  Wonder what the play there would be.

I'd be okay drafting 10th and getting McDermott or Gary Harris if we got something really good on top of it, but Charolette, 76ers and Magic aren't that great of trading partners.  Maybe if the Nuggets gave us Mozgov + the 11th for 6?  Or an unprotected 1st next year?

[tyrone biggums]

At this point, any draft movement by the #Celtics will likely be down, not up. #CelicsTalk
- @SherrodbCSN

Hearing same RT @SherrodbCSN: At this point, any draft movement by the #Celtics will likely be down, not up. #CelicsTalk
- @sam_amick

Both Amick and Sherrod are saying that we may trade down if we are looking to trade.  Wonder what the play there would be.

The two worst NBA reporters in the country are reporting this so it has to be the exact opposite.

[mnshyn]

tbh today i don't know what's going to happen with 6 and I'm not too big on any of the people we can take at #6 (if embiid's medical is really a problem. vonleh intrigues me a little), but I'm hoping that somehow today we end up with Napier at 17 (or traded lower if 17 is too soon).

[LarBrd33]

Woj now reporting that Philly prob takes Embiid 3rd.