Was Big Al really that much better then Sully?

[playdream]

Jefferson: better offense and a number's guy
Sully: more like a team guy that do things to win

[byennie]

Drummond is a better prospect than Big Al ever was. We're talking about a guy who's ceiling is one of the top 3 or so players in the game.

Drummond averaged over 13/13 as a 20 year-old, shot 63%, 1.6 blocks, 1.2 steals, and was by far the best offensive rebounder in the entire league (1.4 more than any other player). Big Al averaged 8 and 5 in the season he turned 21 and didn't play a lick of defense.

Big Al had All-Star upside, but Drummond has MVP upside. Dude could legitimately average 20 & 15 in the near future just by getting a few more touches, let alone improving his game past age 20.

[CelticG1]

I think Sully's trade value would have been much higher if Coach Stevens hadn't limited his minutes so often. It'd be much easier to get K-Love if Sully was averaging the 16-10 he was capable of getting if he were playing 35-37mpg.

I don't necessarily disagree but how incompetent can a GM be if they get convinced with someone's talent averaging 16 and 10 in 37 min versus 13 and 8 in 27 min?

So they either are too stupid to realize that if the coach played him more his stats would go up or if he did play that many minutes with those numbers they are too stupid to realize he is getting those numbers because of those minutes?

I tend to hope that GOT are a little smarter and delve way deeper than per a game averages.

I mean is there any strong argument to be made that 13 and 8 27 min a game is worse than 16 and 10 at 37 min per game when you are talking about a guy like Sully?

[BballTim]

Comparing stats is missing the point. At the time of the trade, big al was perceived to be a vastly superior prospect than sully today. No comparison. Al was widely believed (rightly or wrongly) to be a lock for 20-10 production and some felt he had the best low post moves in the league. If things broke right, he was a superstar big man you could build around. 

Now in retrospect we know that al capped out as a 20-10 guy and didn't reach superstardom

On the flip side, Sullinger isn't even widely regarded as a future starter. You'll see several folks saying he's a future role player. Glen Davis with the brain or Ryan Gomes.  Sure, some (in boston) think he has star potential... But the perception of him is nowhere near big al in 07.

  Big Al was a year older and a year more experienced than Sully was last year. If you compare Sully after his 2nd year to Al after his 2nd year you'd probably give the edge to Sully. Pretty much everything you're saying about Sully was said about Jefferson after his 2nd year, I can remember arguing with people who assured me Al would never start ahead of players like Ryan Gomes (whoever's comparing Sully to Gomes would fit in well with those posters if they aren't the same ones).

  Just to further my point, in Al's first 2 years he played a total of 130 games with 8 starts. He scored 10 or more points a total of 38 times, 20 or more once, and had 10 or more rebounds 10 times. In Sully's first 2 years he played 119 games, starting 49. He scored 10 or more points 64 times including 15 games of 20 or more points and 10 or more rebounds 31 times. Again, Al broke out in his 3rd year (which Sully hasn't played yet) but Sully's play in his first 2 years dwarfed Al's. What this means to the other GMs is anyone's guess but it's not as cut and dried as people think it is.

I can always count on you to bump my posts.

So I guess you are saying that since Sully is a year behind the Al trajectory, there is hope for his break out season next year?

Sure.  I guess.  Pretty much every young player in the league COULD break out in Year 3... doesn't mean it's going to happen.  Plenty of Ike Diogus.  Hometown fans say they are future stars... outside world ignores em... and they fail to get there.

Currently, the perception of Sully as a prospect is nowhere near the level of Big Al in 07.  Sounds like we are agreeing on that.  Next season if the magical basketball fairies grant our homer wishes ("alls he gotta do is lose weight like kevin love!... hella simple!"), maybe Sully takes a leap.

Right now, the #6 pick is at the center of any prospective trade.  Everything else is roulette wheel spins and role players.

  Sully wouldn't need to "break out", he'd just need to get more minutes. He went from 8/6 as a rookie to 13/8 last year, all he has to do is follow the trajectory he's already on. You don't seem to understand this at all. You spent much of his rookie year saying Sully was the same player as, who was it, Meyers Leonard? I think last year you called him a poor man's Ryan Gomes. Now he's another Ike Diogu, who never averaged more than 7 points or 3.5 rebounds a game and who's numbers *dropped* from his rookie to second year.

  Clearly you don't see why someone who went from 6/6 as a rookie to 13/8 the next year and became a regular starter is on a different trajectory than someone who went from 7/3 as a rookie to 6/3 the next year as his minutes dropped. One would think you'd need to have a better handle on such things (or why Sully isn't the same player as Leonard or Diogu) before you made any definitive statements about the perception of Sully or his relative value as an asset. Apparently not.

[BballTim]

Drummond is a better prospect than Big Al ever was. We're talking about a guy who's ceiling is one of the top 3 or so players in the game.

Drummond averaged over 13/13 as a 20 year-old, shot 63%, 1.6 blocks, 1.2 steals, and was by far the best offensive rebounder in the entire league (1.4 more than any other player). Big Al averaged 8 and 5 in the season he turned 21 and didn't play a lick of defense.

Big Al had All-Star upside, but Drummond has MVP upside. Dude could legitimately average 20 & 15 in the near future just by getting a few more touches, let alone improving his game past age 20.

  Drummond doesn't have much of an offensive game beyond putbacks and transition offense. He has miles to go before he's close to the level of player you're talking about.

[jambr380]

Drummond is a better prospect than Big Al ever was. We're talking about a guy who's ceiling is one of the top 3 or so players in the game.

Drummond averaged over 13/13 as a 20 year-old, shot 63%, 1.6 blocks, 1.2 steals, and was by far the best offensive rebounder in the entire league (1.4 more than any other player). Big Al averaged 8 and 5 in the season he turned 21 and didn't play a lick of defense.

Big Al had All-Star upside, but Drummond has MVP upside. Dude could legitimately average 20 & 15 in the near future just by getting a few more touches, let alone improving his game past age 20.

  Drummond doesn't have much of an offensive game beyond putbacks and transition offense. He has miles to go before he's close to the level of player you're talking about.

I tend to agree with you. I think that Drummond is highly coveted by Det and has let it be known, but that doesn't mean he necessarily has MVP potential. Gorgui Dieng was an absolute monster the last two months of the season, but his name isn't being brought up in a similar conversation.

The argument has been made before that Big Al was on a similar level to Drummond at the time of the trade. While this may be true, it still doesn't necessarily mean that he was considered that much better than Sully. It is true that their stats aren't that different (and Sully's 2nd year stats are considerably better than Big Al's), but I think gms have an imaginary line of who has that 'it' factor. Guys like Big Al (circa 2007) and Drummond are above that line, while guys like Sullinger are below it.

I guess in terms of value, it really comes down to what each individual gm thinks.

[Celtics4ever]

Sully wouldn't need to "break out", he'd just need to get more minutes.

The same could be said of Al when here.   He produced more with minutes.  I don't think Sully will play more minutes until he gets in better shape.  He is very foul prone too and some of this is because when bigs get tired they reach instead of slide their feet and some of it is because he is a rookie and developed a bad reputation.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/s/sullija01.html

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/j/jeffeal01.html

I think comparison are best served to compare Sully's second year and Al's fourth. Al came right from high school and this puts them at the same age.   Al is clearly the better player and it is not even close.

Sully all his scoring and rebounding he shot .43% from the field and .27% from downtown.   I like his game when he plays inside.   I think he is poor when he goes Kyle Korver mode.   I know Stevens think he will stretch the floor but he is a joke as a downtown shooter.   The time to develop that shot is the summer not the season.   I wish he would do what he is good at like Al did.  He'd be a player for us if he did.

[wdleehi]

Big Al was worth a lot more then Sully

Big Al had a highly desirable skill that is lacking in the NBA.  A true low post offensive game.

He was a guy in his third year out of high school averaging a double double. 

Big Al didn't have a back issue connected to him.  This is a huge deduction in terms of value for Sully (made more so with the amount of weight he carries)

The number of shots each took was not very different (12.8 vs 12.1); but the number of time to the free throw line was.  (4.4 vs. 2.     

[SHAQATTACK]

Jefferson: better offense and a number's guy
Sully: more like a team guy that do things to win

I think there is something to this .

Sully is better at seeing the court and finding his teammates

Big Al is going full steam all the time , with one thing in mind , getting to the basket every play,  this makes him predictable and also takes some of the offensive flow from his teammates.  So they stand and watch .

[Moranis]

Yes

[timpiker]

Yes a little.  He was a natural.  His moves were Kevin McHale-ish.

[kozlodoev]

.

[kozlodoev]

Personally, I don't like throwing away draft picks because that always seems to come back to haunt us down the road, but, on the other hand, I don't trust that Ainge will get the best players, which is why he tried to acquire as many selections as possible.

Trading picks for Love is not "throwing away draft picks". Throwing away draft picks is tacking them on to Gerald Wallace to entice someone to take his obligation.

I don't see how the number of picks is related to "trusting Ainge". He acquired picks because he could, so that he can trade them when someone becomes available, and because you don't pay salary to draft picks (before you draft them, that is).

I'm not sure that all the draft picks in the world could entice someone to take Crash's contract, unfortunately.  Throwing away, giving them up, whatever, the term you prefer, the bottom line is that we'd no longer have the picks, and I'd rather keep them.

Right, but in one case you have Kevin Love, in the other one you have... cap relief.

The bottom line is that the chances of getting a player with the 6th that will ever be as good as Kevin Love is right now are pretty slim.

[kozlodoev]

I think Sully's trade value would have been much higher if Coach Stevens hadn't limited his minutes so often. It'd be much easier to get K-Love if Sully was averaging the 16-10 he was capable of getting if he were playing 35-37mpg.

Yes, but he couldn't because Sully is so poorly conditioned...hence the prpblem with Sully.

This. Also, the fact that he averaged 6+ fouls per 100 possessions last season didn't help either.

[Jon]

This is becoming a rather silly debate.  Yes, if we ignore FG% and focus on point and rebounds per 36 MPG, Big Al and Sully are roughly on par.  But by doing so, we are ignoring not only a big stat, but two other things:

1) As many have said, Big Al had world class post moves from the get go.  And that's a rare commodity in the NBA. 

2) Big Al can legitimately play center (in fact, he is a center now).  And while the C's played him out of position there this year, Sullinger is not a center. 

Because of those two things, Big Al's value was much higher than Sully's is now--and that's not even factoring in lingering concerns about Sully's back. 

That said, Kevin Love is not as good as KG was in his prime (and probably never will be) and the C's face the added challenge of trying to work out an extension with Love (something that wasn't a concern with KG).  So I think we can look at them somewhat comparably in that light. 

But I don't think people should be expecting the Wolves to be as enamored with Sully as a prospect as they were with Big Al. 

Sully's a nice player, but his upside is probably something around Carlos Boozer--which is nice, but not a player who is going to transform your franchise.