Was Big Al really that much better then Sully?

[bruinsandceltics]

Comparing stats is missing the point. At the time of the trade, big al was perceived to be a vastly superior prospect than sully today. No comparison. Al was widely believed (rightly or wrongly) to be a lock for 20-10 production and some felt he had the best low post moves in the league. If things broke right, he was a superstar big man you could build around. 

Now in retrospect we know that al capped out as a 20-10 guy and didn't reach superstardom

On the flip side, Sullinger isn't even widely regarded as a future starter. You'll see several folks saying he's a future role player. Glen Davis with the brain or Ryan Gomes.  Sure, some (in boston) think he has star potential... But the perception of him is nowhere near big al in 07.

  Big Al was a year older and a year more experienced than Sully was last year. If you compare Sully after his 2nd year to Al after his 2nd year you'd probably give the edge to Sully. Pretty much everything you're saying about Sully was said about Jefferson after his 2nd year, I can remember arguing with people who assured me Al would never start ahead of players like Ryan Gomes (whoever's comparing Sully to Gomes would fit in well with those posters if they aren't the same ones).

  Just to further my point, in Al's first 2 years he played a total of 130 games with 8 starts. He scored 10 or more points a total of 38 times, 20 or more once, and had 10 or more rebounds 10 times. In Sully's first 2 years he played 119 games, starting 49. He scored 10 or more points 64 times including 15 games of 20 or more points and 10 or more rebounds 31 times. Again, Al broke out in his 3rd year (which Sully hasn't played yet) but Sully's play in his first 2 years dwarfed Al's. What this means to the other GMs is anyone's guess but it's not as cut and dried as people think it is.

I can always count on you to bump my posts.

So I guess you are saying that since Sully is a year behind the Al trajectory, there is hope for his break out season next year?

Sure.  I guess.  Pretty much every young player in the league COULD break out in Year 3... doesn't mean it's going to happen.  Plenty of Ike Diogus.  Hometown fans say they are future stars... outside world ignores em... and they fail to get there.

Currently, the perception of Sully as a prospect is nowhere near the level of Big Al in 07.  Sounds like we are agreeing on that.  Next season if the magical basketball fairies grant our homer wishes ("alls he gotta do is lose weight like kevin love!... hella simple!"), maybe Sully takes a leap.

Sullinger doesn't have to make some gigantic leap like you are suggesting he has to make to become a league average starter in this league. He averaged 13/8 as a sophomore coming off back surgery.

There is no denying that he has plenty of things to improve on, but the idea that he is some Ike Diogu is absolute utter insanity. Ridiculous. 

[Beat LA]

Personally, I don't like throwing away draft picks because that always seems to come back to haunt us down the road, but, on the other hand, I don't trust that Ainge will get the best players, which is why he tried to acquire as many selections as possible.

Trading picks for Love is not "throwing away draft picks". Throwing away draft picks is tacking them on to Gerald Wallace to entice someone to take his obligation.

I don't see how the number of picks is related to "trusting Ainge". He acquired picks because he could, so that he can trade them when someone becomes available, and because you don't pay salary to draft picks (before you draft them, that is).

I'm not sure that all the draft picks in the world could entice someone to take Crash's contract, unfortunately.  Throwing away, giving them up, whatever, the term you prefer, the bottom line is that we'd no longer have the picks, and I'd rather keep them.

[droopdog7]

Personally, I don't like throwing away draft picks because that always seems to come back to haunt us down the road, but, on the other hand, I don't trust that Ainge will get the best players, which is why he tried to acquire as many selections as possible.

Trading picks for Love is not "throwing away draft picks". Throwing away draft picks is tacking them on to Gerald Wallace to entice someone to take his obligation.

I don't see how the number of picks is related to "trusting Ainge". He acquired picks because he could, so that he can trade them when someone becomes available, and because you don't pay salary to draft picks (before you draft them, that is).

I'm not sure that all the draft picks in the world could entice someone to take Crash's contract, unfortunately.  Throwing away, giving them up, whatever, the term you prefer, the bottom line is that we'd no longer have the picks, and I'd rather keep them.

Throwing them away or giving them up?  How about cashing them in?  Because that would be what we'd be doing.  Trading them in for value.

And as far as crash and picks, we obviously took him and he picks.  You didn't think all those first round picks were just for KG and PP did you?

[droopdog7]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

[BigAlTheFuture]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

[droopdog7]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

Im not sure about that.  I mean, I think the situations are similar.  KG was an all time great.  You better believe that Al had enough value if we were able to get KG on return. 

[LarBrd33]

Comparing stats is missing the point. At the time of the trade, big al was perceived to be a vastly superior prospect than sully today. No comparison. Al was widely believed (rightly or wrongly) to be a lock for 20-10 production and some felt he had the best low post moves in the league. If things broke right, he was a superstar big man you could build around. 

Now in retrospect we know that al capped out as a 20-10 guy and didn't reach superstardom

On the flip side, Sullinger isn't even widely regarded as a future starter. You'll see several folks saying he's a future role player. Glen Davis with the brain or Ryan Gomes.  Sure, some (in boston) think he has star potential... But the perception of him is nowhere near big al in 07.

  Big Al was a year older and a year more experienced than Sully was last year. If you compare Sully after his 2nd year to Al after his 2nd year you'd probably give the edge to Sully. Pretty much everything you're saying about Sully was said about Jefferson after his 2nd year, I can remember arguing with people who assured me Al would never start ahead of players like Ryan Gomes (whoever's comparing Sully to Gomes would fit in well with those posters if they aren't the same ones).

  Just to further my point, in Al's first 2 years he played a total of 130 games with 8 starts. He scored 10 or more points a total of 38 times, 20 or more once, and had 10 or more rebounds 10 times. In Sully's first 2 years he played 119 games, starting 49. He scored 10 or more points 64 times including 15 games of 20 or more points and 10 or more rebounds 31 times. Again, Al broke out in his 3rd year (which Sully hasn't played yet) but Sully's play in his first 2 years dwarfed Al's. What this means to the other GMs is anyone's guess but it's not as cut and dried as people think it is.

I can always count on you to bump my posts.

So I guess you are saying that since Sully is a year behind the Al trajectory, there is hope for his break out season next year?

Sure.  I guess.  Pretty much every young player in the league COULD break out in Year 3... doesn't mean it's going to happen.  Plenty of Ike Diogus.  Hometown fans say they are future stars... outside world ignores em... and they fail to get there.

Currently, the perception of Sully as a prospect is nowhere near the level of Big Al in 07.  Sounds like we are agreeing on that.  Next season if the magical basketball fairies grant our homer wishes ("alls he gotta do is lose weight like kevin love!... hella simple!"), maybe Sully takes a leap.

Sullinger doesn't have to make some gigantic leap like you are suggesting he has to make to become a league average starter in this league. He averaged 13/8 as a sophomore coming off back surgery.

There is no denying that he has plenty of things to improve on, but the idea that he is some Ike Diogu is absolute utter insanity. Ridiculous. 

Not really, though.  I brought up Diogu, because he's an example of a young big man who averaged about 20, 10 and 2 per 36 minutes and his fanbase thought was a future star... It's not surprising that you (presumably not a Golden State Warrior fan), find this so utterly "insane".   It's not.  Yeah, maybe Sully ends up being one of the 150 best players in the league and ends up a starter... but if we're comparing his trade value right now to Big Al's in 2007, it's no contest.  Right now our overhyping of Sully is akin to Golden State overhyping Diogu.  We think he's hot stuff... rest of the league doesn't care.  We'll see what happens. 

[Rondo9]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

Im not sure about that.  I mean, I think the situations are similar.  KG was an all time great.  You better believe that Al had enough value if we were able to get KG on return.

Andre Drummond has the potential to be a force on defense, comparable to Dwight Howard's impact. Al Jefferson is a great offensive player, but an elite rim protecting bigs are ultra rare in this league. I think Detroit would be very hesitant to trade Drummond for Love.

[droopdog7]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

Im not sure about that.  I mean, I think the situations are similar.  KG was an all time great.  You better believe that Al had enough value if we were able to get KG on return.

Andre Drummond has the potential to be a force on defense, comparable to Dwight Howard's impact. Al Jefferson is a great offensive player, but an elite rim protecting bigs are ultra rare in this league. I think Detroit would be very hesitant to trade Drummond for Love.

Perhaps.  But of course, it depends.  Would they have traded Drummond for KG, when they had two other hall of famers and a chance to compete for a title?  Drummond and Al are differnt players.  And perhaps Drummond has more value than Al.  But I still argue that Al was closer to Drummond than he is to sully.

[Rondo9]

Garnett was at the end of his prime years. The Pistons don't have a Paul Pierce or Ray Allen on their team. Drummond remains their best player and his value dwarfs Al or Sullinger's. Personally I think that Al Jefferson and Sullinger's value is closer than you think. But they pale in comparison to someone like Andre Drummond.

[Beat LA]

Personally, I don't like throwing away draft picks because that always seems to come back to haunt us down the road, but, on the other hand, I don't trust that Ainge will get the best players, which is why he tried to acquire as many selections as possible.

Trading picks for Love is not "throwing away draft picks". Throwing away draft picks is tacking them on to Gerald Wallace to entice someone to take his obligation.

I don't see how the number of picks is related to "trusting Ainge". He acquired picks because he could, so that he can trade them when someone becomes available, and because you don't pay salary to draft picks (before you draft them, that is).

I'm not sure that all the draft picks in the world could entice someone to take Crash's contract, unfortunately.  Throwing away, giving them up, whatever, the term you prefer, the bottom line is that we'd no longer have the picks, and I'd rather keep them.

Throwing them away or giving them up?  How about cashing them in?  Because that would be what we'd be doing.  Trading them in for value.

And as far as crash and picks, we obviously took him and he picks.  You didn't think all those first round picks were just for KG and PP did you?

We can cash them in by drafting well, but I get your point; and to be honest, I never really thought about the reason(s) why the nets gave up so many of them, other than the fact that they were looking to make a blockbuster move.

[colincb]

Better scorer, better moves, and defintely a 5 when we don't know whether Sully can play the 4 yet in the NBA. Jefferson exploded in year 3 in BOS and went up to 21 PPG and 11 RPG his first year in Minn and no one was that surprised.

I see upside for Sullinger, but it's tough to see him getting to Al's 4th year numbers two years from now.

[obnoxiousmime]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

I liked the Monroe comparison in terms of value, although Jefferson is more talented. I would say he was a little more valuable than Monroe, Gortat, and Faried a couple years ago, but definitely less valuable than guys in the Aldridge/Cousins class. Maybe a good value comp is like Jonas Valanciunas or Zach Randolph. A talented big man but with certain flaws that would prevent him from ever being a multiple All-Star or key championship cog (amazingly Jefferson has never made the All-Star team, usually someone of his caliber has made it at least once as an injury replacement).

[crimson_stallion]

I think Sully's trade value would have been much higher if Coach Stevens hadn't limited his minutes so often. It'd be much easier to get K-Love if Sully was averaging the 16-10 he was capable of getting if he were playing 35-37mpg.

Yes, but he couldn't because Sully is so poorly conditioned...hence the prpblem with Sully.

[crimson_stallion]

And if we're looking for a comparable player to Big Al today, I'd say it would be someone like Andre Drummond.  They are differnt players certainly but I think their values would have been about the same.  Drummond moves the needle around the league.  Sully simply does not.

Drummond is nearly untouchable. He has way more value than Big Al had.

Im not sure about that.  I mean, I think the situations are similar.  KG was an all time great.  You better believe that Al had enough value if we were able to get KG on return.

Andre Drummond has the potential to be a force on defense, comparable to Dwight Howard's impact. Al Jefferson is a great offensive player, but an elite rim protecting bigs are ultra rare in this league. I think Detroit would be very hesitant to trade Drummond for Love.

Yes but like Jefferson Drummond is mostly a one end of the floor guy.   He has outstanding defensive potential,  but offensively he's really nothing special. Dwight has been an 18-20ppg scorer almost his entire career, Drummond is nowhere near that level.

I think the Drummond / Jefferson comparison is fair.   Drummond is seriously overrated in a really big way. I do not see future superstar potential there, I just see really good starting center potential.  All Star MAYBE,  or maybe not.