Doug McDermott Comparison/Projection

[Beat LA]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA.  Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

[mmmmm]

I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho. 

Well, now.  That's a compelling argument there.

(And how is your saying this, "for his sake"?)

[MBunge]

McDemott isn't like Adam Morrison or Jimmer Fredette.  He hasn't just had one monster season in college.  He's been the most productive player in college basketball for the last three years.  Dude can shoot from anywhere, score in the post and rebounded well for his position.  I don't think anyone even thinks he's a bad defender when it comes to technique or court awareness.

There are only two strikes against him.

1.  He's white.
2.  He doesn't look very athletic on the court.

If the league still played basketball the way the Spurs play, McDermott would be the #1 pick.  But in the post-Jordan era where individual match ups dominate, there's a not unreasonable fear that he won't be able to win those one-on-one battles.

Mike

[D.o.s.]

McDemott isn't like Adam Morrison or Jimmer Fredette.  He hasn't just had one monster season in college.  He's been the most productive player in college basketball for the last three years.  Dude can shoot from anywhere, score in the post and rebounded well for his position.  I don't think anyone even thinks he's a bad defender when it comes to technique or court awareness.

There are only two strikes against him.

1.  He's white.
2.  He doesn't look very athletic on the court.

If the league still played basketball the way the Spurs play, McDermott would be the #1 pick.  But in the post-Jordan era where individual match ups dominate, there's a not unreasonable fear that he won't be able to win those one-on-one battles.

Mike

The same Spurs that drafted, and heavily lean on, the totally unathletic Kawhi Leonard?

Doug McDermott is going so low because he played for his dad in a smallish school in an offensive system that, while really fun to watch, won't translate to the NBA.

[sofutomygaha]

McDemott isn't like Adam Morrison or Jimmer Fredette.  He hasn't just had one monster season in college.  He's been the most productive player in college basketball for the last three years.  Dude can shoot from anywhere, score in the post and rebounded well for his position.  I don't think anyone even thinks he's a bad defender when it comes to technique or court awareness.

There are only two strikes against him.

1.  He's white.
2.  He doesn't look very athletic on the court.

If the league still played basketball the way the Spurs play, McDermott would be the #1 pick.  But in the post-Jordan era where individual match ups dominate, there's a not unreasonable fear that he won't be able to win those one-on-one battles.

Mike

I think you're a little out of focus. Jimmer and Morrison were both up there on the leaderboards for at least two ncaa seasons. Since the conversation always gravitates towards less-athletic white guys who had good runs in college, shall we throw Ryan Whitman and Luke Harangody in there for comps? If you're looking for unathletic white guys who only dominated for one season to contrast McDermott with, Kelly Olynyk is the first name that comes to my mind.

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

Here are McDermott's real comps, and they have nothing to do with skin color or athleticism. These are the highest scoring forwards who spent four years in the MVC or Big East in the last decade

1. Colt Ryan
2. Kyle Weems
3. Luke Haragody
4. Ryan Gomes
5. D'saun Butler

[Tr1boy]

Matt harpring

[chambers]

Just like the Marcus Smart Comparison thread, I must admit that I haven't really seen him play, and though I hate to say it, for his sake, the guy has bust written all over him imho.  Who can he guard?  He doesn't look like much of a passer or rebounder, nor can he create his own shot.  I know he scored a ton of points in college in an almost Pete and Press Maravich style program (the offense revolves around him), but that's not going to be the case in the NBA. Am I missing something with this guy?  What does everyone think of him and his potential, or lack thereof, as the case may be?  If we're comparing mid-major talent, I'd think that Elfrid Payton certainly has much better upside.

Oh, and I\if you haven't already visited the thread entitled 'Calling All Music Lovers', http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=70754.0, I'd encourage you to do so.  Wait until you hear her sing!

It was the opposite actually, he had far less efficient shots and was forced to shoot a lot of bail out jumpshots in Okla' state's offense. He will attack the basket far more in the NBA and attempt to get to the free throw line.
He's also one of the best defenders for his position in the draft too.

You need to watch more.

Dougie Mac has far more bust potential than Smart as a general consensus.

[colincb]

A better Kyle Korver.  Same position in the NBA, tad bigger, and same school, but McDermott was the whole show at Creighton and the opposition knew it.  They had similar shooting numbers in college, but DM shot the ball twice as much at Creighton than Korver did and that's impressive if you're still maintaining very high shooting percentages.

TS% was 64+% and that's elite enough to offset any defensive deficiencies. A lot of guys come in the NBA and find parts of their offensive game are taken away from them and I expect that to happen to Randle and Gordon for example. McDermott, however, will get the same shots in the pros as he did in college. Saw him in half a dozen games and he has rare range and moves to get his shot off.  Korver's quite a bit easier to defend.

McDermott will be an average defender at best. Works hard, rotates well, good team defense, but weakness will be guarding 1-on-1 and he's coming from a zone defensive team. Did not have many steals, but it was a passive zone from what I saw.  Not a strong rebounder at the 4, but should be average and no better at the 3. Back of the top 10 sounds right.

Rather have a two-way guy at 6. If for some reason Embiid slides badly and we're stuck looking at a choice of Gordon vs Randle, I would consider McDermott in the mix.

[colincb]

McDemott isn't like Adam Morrison or Jimmer Fredette.  He hasn't just had one monster season in college.  He's been the most productive player in college basketball for the last three years.  Dude can shoot from anywhere, score in the post and rebounded well for his position.  I don't think anyone even thinks he's a bad defender when it comes to technique or court awareness.

There are only two strikes against him.

1.  He's white.
2.  He doesn't look very athletic on the court.

If the league still played basketball the way the Spurs play, McDermott would be the #1 pick.  But in the post-Jordan era where individual match ups dominate, there's a not unreasonable fear that he won't be able to win those one-on-one battles.

Mike

I think you're a little out of focus. Jimmer and Morrison were both up there on the leaderboards for at least two ncaa seasons. Since the conversation always gravitates towards less-athletic white guys who had good runs in college, shall we throw Ryan Whitman and Luke Harangody in there for comps? If you're looking for unathletic white guys who only dominated for one season to contrast McDermott with, Kelly Olynyk is the first name that comes to my mind.

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

Here are McDermott's real comps, and they have nothing to do with skin color or athleticism. These are the highest scoring forwards who spent four years in the MVC or Big East in the last decade

1. Colt Ryan
2. Kyle Weems
3. Luke Haragody
4. Ryan Gomes
5. D'saun Butler

Don't agreed with your post (or the one you're responding to either).  Your comps are very weak.  This is a strong draft and everyone and their mother has McDermott in the lottery. You're comparing him to people that didn't get past Portsmouth and second rounders. His game's not similar either. Gomes was the best of that crop and I saw a lot of both and there's no comparison as to offensive talent or their games.

Managed to lead the country in scoring AND shoot an elite total shooting percentage too.

[Future Celtics Owner]

McDemott isn't like Adam Morrison or Jimmer Fredette.  He hasn't just had one monster season in college.  He's been the most productive player in college basketball for the last three years.  Dude can shoot from anywhere, score in the post and rebounded well for his position.  I don't think anyone even thinks he's a bad defender when it comes to technique or court awareness.

There are only two strikes against him.

1.  He's white.
2.  He doesn't look very athletic on the court.

If the league still played basketball the way the Spurs play, McDermott would be the #1 pick.  But in the post-Jordan era where individual match ups dominate, there's a not unreasonable fear that he won't be able to win those one-on-one battles.

Mike

The same Spurs that drafted, and heavily lean on, the totally unathletic Kawhi Leonard?

Doug McDermott is going so low because he played for his dad in a smallish school in an offensive system that, while really fun to watch, won't translate to the NBA.

Interesting fact: Mcbuckets was two years older at the combine than Kawhi, but did post a much better vertical(standing and max). Now vertical is not the only test for athleticism, and Kawhi probably would have tested better after two more years of college....but its a cool fact.

[Future Celtics Owner]

I agree for the most part but there are exceptions like Damien Lillard.

[Celtics4ever]

A suped up Wally World.

[MBunge]

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

That's just stupid.  When guys leave college early, 99% of the time it's because of money.  That's not an issue for McDermott.

Mike

[sofutomygaha]

If you want to think up good comps to put McDermott's NBA potential into context, you're better off focussing on the fact that is already staring you in the face. If McDermott has been doing it for four years and no one pushed him to declare before, the odds are he doesn't have a bright NBA future. Four-year college guys who stick in the NBA these days usually become deep-bench bigs or shooting specialists (Reddick, Courtney Lee, Hansborough, Korver, Plumlee).

That's just stupid.  When guys leave college early, 99% of the time it's because of money.  That's not an issue for McDermott.

Mike

I don't follow, but I can be a little stupid so please spell it out for me. Are you saying that Doug McDermott doesn't like money? Are you just saying that, absent a pressing financial need, he didn't have dreams of playing in the NBA that would have motivated him to leave college? Something else?

[sofutomygaha]

Don't agreed with your post (or the one you're responding to either).  Your comps are very weak.  This is a strong draft and everyone and their mother has McDermott in the lottery. You're comparing him to people that didn't get past Portsmouth and second rounders. His game's not similar either. Gomes was the best of that crop and I saw a lot of both and there's no comparison as to offensive talent or their games.

Managed to lead the country in scoring AND shoot an elite total shooting percentage too.

I'm comparing him to the other recent players who also dominated the MVC and Big East conferences over 4-year careers. My point is that the level of competition and the four-year-man element are probably stronger indicators (in the negative direction) than his whiteness or his lack of athleticism.

I'm giving you collegiate comps. You guys want prospect-comps, not college-career comps. I get that.

I think you'd have a more sensible perspective, though, if you realized that the reason there aren't good prospect comps for McDermott is because guys with his profile generally aren't even prospects, despite their huge trophy cases.