How many years left for Lebron

[celticsclay]

I was thinking about how this is the end of Lebron's 11th season and how he turns 30 in December. Then I started thinking about our old friend Kevin Garnett as another guy that came into the league straight out of high school. Lebron's actually has played a lot more minutes and games during his first 11 seasons because of the deep playoff runs.

Looking at KG's career, it seemed like his last really dominant season was his first with the Celtics.. then the injuries and he was never quite the same. His star level play probably goes on two more years without those injuries, but that would be at most 14 or 15 years of dominant play. Are we all a lot closer to the end of Lebron as a superstar than we thought?

[Who]

8-10 more years if he avoids a major injury.

[manl_lui]

8-10 more years if he avoids a major injury.

what he said

Lebron who is pushing 30, is still arguably the best player in the world, with all-stars surrounding him, if he can avoid major injuries, I bet you he can play 8-10 years and not see a decline until he hits like 34-35

[celticsclay]

Umm.. if he played 10 more seasons that would give him 21 tying him for Robert parish with the most or second most of all time. Would also note that Parish was towel waiver for the last three averaging under 5 a game.

It seems really hard to justify based on history saying more than 5 years. Malone is the only guy that used strength as much as LeBron to be really effective (or even in the league) in his late 30's. Malone also did not need use speed as much in his game as LeBron does.

[D.o.s.]

8-10 more years if he avoids a major injury.

I agree with this

[celticsclay]

8-10 more years if he avoids a major injury.

what he said

Lebron who is pushing 30, is still arguably the best player in the world, with all-stars surrounding him, if he can avoid major injuries, I bet you he can play 8-10 years and not see a decline until he hits like 34-35

Are we really discounting the number of minutes and games he has played in the NBA since coming out of high school?

He is 11th in the NBA right now of active players for minutes played right behind rashard lewis and Elton brand? The guy he is ahead of is Chauncey Billups. He is human...

[fairweatherfan]

Umm.. if he played 10 more seasons that would give him 21 tying him for Robert parish with the most or second most of all time. Would also note that Parish was towel waiver for the last three averaging under 5 a game.

It seems really hard to justify based on history saying more than 5 years. Malone is the only guy that used strength as much as LeBron to be really effective (or even in the league) in his late 30's. Malone also did not need use speed as much in his game as LeBron does.

Yeah, but Parish came into the league at 23, LeBron was 18.  NBA minutes grind your body down regardless of age but that's a huge difference from the jump.

I don't know if LeBron would make it to 39, but I see him already starting to adjust to his age by making fewer drives and taking more jumpers.  That's a good sign for his longevity.  Contrast it with Wade who's basically useless on the increasingly frequent days when his legs aren't with him.

[celticsclay]

For reference.. look where he is now. I was actually kind of shocked how high he was. I think spo and previously Mike Brown may have shorted his career a year or two by how they have managed him (not that I blame them)

http://www.basketball-reference.com/leaders/mp_active.html

[Who]

I think LeBron will age very well because he can slide over to power forward and play there full time. Even with the loss of his explosive quickness, LeBron's skill-level (relative to a PF) will still make him a very potent player. The ball-handling, the secondary playmaking, the spot up shooting. He should still have a quickness advantage at PF for 5+ years to come to set up his dribble drive game. He has the post game to take advantage of smaller players if teams go small to matchup with him. He'll be a really big problem for years to come.

Remember when Magic Johnson came back to play in 1996 when he was 38 years old. He hadn't played in four and half years. Was badly conditioned. Overweight. Still, even at that age and with questionable conditioning, Magic Johnson was still a very good player. I think he had something like 15ppg, 7rpg and 6-7apg in low 30mpg (without training camp, joined mid-season for playoff push). You could visibly see how uncomfortable vast majority of PFs were trying to cover him out on the perimeter and the second a team switched a smaller defender onto him, Magic went down into the post and killed them there instead. Only a few teams had players with enough defensive range to cover Magic. So I think LeBron is going to be able to do something quite similar to that when his quickness goes as a player 36-39 year old player.

[Donoghus]

Prime level- 4 to 5 years.

Left in his career - 8-10 years.

I think he'll age similar to Pierce.  Although, obviously, coming down from a higher level.

[kiwiceltic]

I think if he looks after himself like Ray Allen has.... 7-9years, with maybe another 5 without his numbers declining

[MBunge]

I think LeBron will age very well because he can slide over to power forward and play there full time.

If he does that, he can easily be a very good player for another 8 or so year.  Let's not kid ourselves, though.  No matter what he does his time as "best player in the world" may not last more than another 2 or 3 years.

The question is if Bron is willing to do that.  He's never liked banging down low with people his own size.  If he tries to stick at small forward, his decline might be a lot quicker because you can already see that he's losing his appetite for guarding mobile perimeter players.

Mike

[celticsclay]

Well we kind of don't have any evidence that he takes care of his body like Ray Allen does... and ray allen's workout's have been well know for about a decade. 

The only thing I have heard is him doing some workouts with Kevin Durant and a trainer, but definitely not a year round maniacal dedication like Allen. Am not really seeing a lot of compelling arguments for the number of years people are suggesting based on history of players in the NBA and the amount of minutes he has played. I don't think people realize how rare it is for someone to be effective in the nba at 37 years old (or even 35 for that matter) . Since someone mentioned him, Paul pierce is actually 36 now and is definitely not an all star.

[Who]

LeBron to finish his career above 40,000 points, 10,000 rebounds and 10,000 assists.

[Vox_Populi]

The question is: how much time until Durant is definitively better?