Report: Joel Embiid's physical with Cleveland "did not go well"

[CM0]

So what are the chances of the Celtics getting Embiid now?

Without trading up, still basically 0.  Too much potential there.

EDIT:  Unless the medical reports are REALLY bad, in which case we might not want him anyway.

Not really.  It depends who he works out for.  If he only shows up to Cleveland, and they pass, everyone else will be picking blind.  It could be that the reports aren't great, and that makes Wiggins a better pick for Cleveland, but they'd have still taken him over Parker or Exum (hypothetically -- for all I know they like Parker more than Wiggins).  Point is, he's still #2 on Cleveland's board, but Milwaukee doesn't know this.  So they pass and take Parker.  Philly also has no info, and likes Exum.  Orlando has no info, and likes Smart.

Now he's fallen to 5 in a hurry, and no one still has any info, even though Cleveland hypothetically would have taken him at #2.

I've said all along that limiting the teams he takes a physical for could cause him to drop further than he otherwise would.

There's no way that Danny takes him in the dark at #6 if all of the teams with his medical records passed. That would be insane.

If the issue is so bad that he falls to the Celtics, then the issue is so bad that Celtics should probably pass if a potential superstar like Marcus Smart is available. It's as simple as that.

His upside is so great that he might be worth taking a waiver on after the top-2 tiers of prospects, but it's also so high that any team passing on him has to think that an injury-plagued career is a probability and not a just a possibility.

I'm not saying much productive or of worth here, but it all depends.  People would have said the same thing about Sully (and obviously felt that way, letting him fall all the way to our pick) and he has turned out to be fine.  It has to be carefully looked at.

How Sullinger was handled I have more confidence in our medical staff than others out there.

It's a dice roll. Sully could have turned out very, very differently. It made sense to pick him in the middle of the first round, but taking a guy at #6 in a loaded draft is a whole different sort of proposition.

It's counterintuitive, but Embiid's extremely high-upside means that any team passing on him has to be even more worried than usual about the nature of the injury. The better a guy is thought to be, the worse the issue has to be for them to slip far. One could argue that Wiggins has such a high upside that concerns over Embiid might just be enough to make him go second, but it's a different story altogether if he slides to 6.

Think about it- how bad does an injury have to be for you to pass on a potential hall-of-fame type franchise player?

[furball]

The question is how bad was it?  They say it's bad enough they won't take him at 1 but is that because it's bad or because Wiggins is there?  If this was last year's draft would he still go 1?  They are weighing any risk vs no risk in Wiggins (or Parker).  Until someone else looks at him, we won't know. 

[lon3lytoaster]

If we can't get Love, but can get Embiid... Especially at 6, I don't care. Do it. This almost certainly means Smart is off the board along with Exum. So do it. I'd rather have a bust in Embiid than mediocrity of Aaron Gordon.

[CM0]

The question is how bad was it?  They say it's bad enough they won't take him at 1 but is that because it's bad or because Wiggins is there?  If this was last year's draft would he still go 1?  They are weighing any risk vs no risk in Wiggins (or Parker).  Until someone else looks at him, we won't know.

My point exactly. If he slips past 4, Danny can be assured that the problem is very, very serious.

[CM0]

If we can't get Love, but can get Embiid... Especially at 6, I don't care. Do it. This almost certainly means Smart is off the board along with Exum. So do it. I'd rather have a bust in Embiid than mediocrity of Aaron Gordon.

I'd much rather trade down at that point and get a quality veteran starter and a guy like Saric, Stauskas, or McDermott.

[35Lewis]

I'd be less scared to take him if he never missed any games from this injury.  This could be another case like Andrew Bynum or Bogut or Oden or Bowie. Nobody will know for sure until more info comes but a team isn't going to red flag someone with this much potential when they have the 1st overall pick without some reasoning behind it.  Now they'd look crazy if they changed their minds. 

It's got to be a big problem or else they're playing some strange game but that doesn't make any sense to me.  Keep in mind that this same set of doctors in Cleveland that ok'd the Bynum signing.

[slamtheking]

I've been saying since the draft that I fully expect Cle to take Wiggins not Embiid.  I think if there's any truth to this that should pretty well cement Wiggins as #1.

I'd be torn on whether to take him at #6 -- would have to be examined by C's docs to justify the pick -- unless Minny wants him in exchange for Love.  that would be an interesting swap

[manl_lui]

if he slips out of top 3, I would trade a lot of assets just to grab Embiid. His workout videos look so smooth. He doesn't look stiff, post moves looks natural to him. Explosion is great, and most of the moves looks easy for him. Compare to some other prospects' workout video, I see no reasons to not grab try to trade up for him.

[greg683x]

If he falls and exum, vonleh, and especially Smart (hes my pick at #6) are all gone then take him.  Randles foot problem makes it an easier decision.  We need someone to build around, and theres no one else at that point that could fit the bill.  We have enough firsts over the next few years to potentially soften the blow if Joel busts.

[saltlover]

So what are the chances of the Celtics getting Embiid now?

Without trading up, still basically 0.  Too much potential there.

EDIT:  Unless the medical reports are REALLY bad, in which case we might not want him anyway.

Not really.  It depends who he works out for.  If he only shows up to Cleveland, and they pass, everyone else will be picking blind.  It could be that the reports aren't great, and that makes Wiggins a better pick for Cleveland, but they'd have still taken him over Parker or Exum (hypothetically -- for all I know they like Parker more than Wiggins).  Point is, he's still #2 on Cleveland's board, but Milwaukee doesn't know this.  So they pass and take Parker.  Philly also has no info, and likes Exum.  Orlando has no info, and likes Smart.

Now he's fallen to 5 in a hurry, and no one still has any info, even though Cleveland hypothetically would have taken him at #2.

I've said all along that limiting the teams he takes a physical for could cause him to drop further than he otherwise would.

There's no way that Danny takes him in the dark at #6 if all of the teams with his medical records passed. That would be insane.

If the issue is so bad that he falls to the Celtics, then the issue is so bad that Celtics should probably pass if a potential superstar like Marcus Smart is available. It's as simple as that.

His upside is so great that he might be worth taking a waiver on after the top-2 tiers of prospects, but it's also so high that any team passing on him has to think that an injury-plagued/shortened career is a probability and not a just a possibility.

You've missed my hypothesis.  What if he only shows his medical reports to Cleveland, and Cleveland passes, taking Wiggins?  You're Milwaukee -- do you pick him or pass?  Cleveland may have seen something terrible, but Cleveland also messed up #1 overall last year, so maybe they're just messing up again.  Or heck, maybe they just like Wiggins more.  They wouldn't be the only ones.

Accordingly, Milwaukee will be left with a choice of taking Parker, who fits their needs very well, or Embiid whom they don't know is healthy.  The logical choice is Parker.

Now Philly can choose between Exum, whom they reportedly like a lot, or Embiid, who is probably better than Exum, but may be injured.  Again, they don't know.  While they took a risk last year with Noel, and they do have pick #10, it's not crazy to think they'd take Exum.

Next up is Orlando.  A healthy Embiid would be great value here, but they don't have any information either.  They also like Smart a lot.  Embiid would be tough to pass up, because of the value, but Smart is arguably higher on their board than some of the players who've already been picked.  They might pass on Embiid.

Then Utah.  Embiid would be franchise-altering if he's healthy.  But they're a small-market team and can't afford to miss on this pick.  There are a number of good options on the board that they have more information about -- all they know is all Philly, Milwaukee, and Orlando knew, which is only that Cleveland didn't pick him.  Do they take the risk, or do they proceed with their original plan, and take probably Noah Vonleh?

Voila! he's at the Celtics.  Should the Celtics take him?  At a certain point the risk is worth it.  Again, for all you know, the Cavs just wanted Wiggins more.  On the other hand, his medical issues have been kept secret for some reason, and this could be a chronic and severe issue.   Supposedly you're very high on Gordon.

Again, the issue is what happens if the only team who sees Embiid is Cleveland, and they pass.  That creates a situation in which there is very little information, and makes it very difficult to predict what will happen or should happen.  My point is that Embiid falling to #6 might not be the result of a terrible medical report, but rather a lack of information that is assumed to be a terrible medical report. The bad medical report is not a necessary condition of his possible slide, but rather only the perception of one.

[Rakulp]

So what are the chances of the Celtics getting Embiid now?

Without trading up, still basically 0.  Too much potential there.

EDIT:  Unless the medical reports are REALLY bad, in which case we might not want him anyway.

Not really.  It depends who he works out for.  If he only shows up to Cleveland, and they pass, everyone else will be picking blind.  It could be that the reports aren't great, and that makes Wiggins a better pick for Cleveland, but they'd have still taken him over Parker or Exum (hypothetically -- for all I know they like Parker more than Wiggins).  Point is, he's still #2 on Cleveland's board, but Milwaukee doesn't know this.  So they pass and take Parker.  Philly also has no info, and likes Exum.  Orlando has no info, and likes Smart.

Now he's fallen to 5 in a hurry, and no one still has any info, even though Cleveland hypothetically would have taken him at #2.

I've said all along that limiting the teams he takes a physical for could cause him to drop further than he otherwise would.

There's no way that Danny takes him in the dark at #6 if all of the teams with his medical records passed. That would be insane.

If the issue is so bad that he falls to the Celtics, then the issue is so bad that Celtics should probably pass if a potential superstar like Marcus Smart is available. It's as simple as that.

His upside is so great that he might be worth taking a waiver on after the top-2 tiers of prospects, but it's also so high that any team passing on him has to think that an injury-plagued/shortened career is a probability and not a just a possibility.

You've missed my hypothesis.  What if he only shows his medical reports to Cleveland, and Cleveland passes, taking Wiggins?  You're Milwaukee -- do you pick him or pass?  Cleveland may have seen something terrible, but Cleveland also messed up #1 overall last year, so maybe they're just messing up again.  Or heck, maybe they just like Wiggins more.  They wouldn't be the only ones.

Accordingly, Milwaukee will be left with a choice of taking Parker, who fits their needs very well, or Embiid whom they don't know is healthy.  The logical choice is Parker.

Now Philly can choose between Exum, whom they reportedly like a lot, or Embiid, who is probably better than Exum, but may be injured.  Again, they don't know.  While they took a risk last year with Noel, and they do have pick #10, it's not crazy to think they'd take Exum.

Next up is Orlando.  A healthy Embiid would be great value here, but they don't have any information either.  They also like Smart a lot.  Embiid would be tough to pass up, because of the value, but Smart is arguably higher on their board than some of the players who've already been picked.  They might pass on Embiid.

Then Utah.  Embiid would be franchise-altering if he's healthy.  But they're a small-market team and can't afford to miss on this pick.  There are a number of good options on the board that they have more information about -- all they know is all Philly, Milwaukee, and Orlando knew, which is only that Cleveland didn't pick him.  Do they take the risk, or do they proceed with their original plan, and take probably Noah Vonleh?

Voila! he's at the Celtics.  Should the Celtics take him?  At a certain point the risk is worth it.  Again, for all you know, the Cavs just wanted Wiggins more.  On the other hand, his medical issues have been kept secret for some reason, and this could be a chronic and severe issue.   Supposedly you're very high on Gordon.

Again, the issue is what happens if the only team who sees Embiid is Cleveland, and they pass.  That creates a situation in which there is very little information, and makes it very difficult to predict what will happen or should happen.  My point is that Embiid falling to #6 might not be the result of a terrible medical report, but rather a lack of information that is assumed to be a terrible medical report. The bad medical report is not a necessary condition of his possible slide, but rather only the perception of one.

TP

Spot on analysis IMO. 

Comparing Sully and Embiid isn't fair as has been mentioned earlier in the thread.  We knew more about his back situation than anybody knows about Embiid at this point.  If more medical information isn't presented and the Cavs pass on him with the 1st pick, then I'll have to believe that there is a real concern, not that the Cavs screwed up another 1st pick in the draft.

Boston should not let this report change their intended direction.  They never expected to get Embiid at 6, and if he falls to them now, it'll be for all the wrong reasons.

Rak

[CM0]

if he slips out of top 3, I would trade a lot of assets just to grab Embiid. His workout videos look so smooth. He doesn't look stiff, post moves looks natural to him. Explosion is great, and most of the moves looks easy for him. Compare to some other prospects' workout video, I see no reasons to not grab try to trade up for him.

I see a reason: he might be out of the league in 4 years.

[JBcat]

Wow, if Cleveland passes then the situation gets very cloudy.  Milwaukee, Philly, Orlando, and Utah all have young centers.  Which team would take a chance on a broken Embiid rather going for another position?

[Future Celtics Owner]

I would be excited to be able to draft Embiid but gambling on a guy's health is scary. People could fondly look back at the Sully pick and say he was a steal, or look at Portland's Oden pick and shake their head.

The Sully gamble made a lot more sense to me since we were drafting in the 20s anyways and might as well try risk/reward at that point.

Doing it at #6 is a lot different.

It's not like you're drafting at the top three. The Celtics need a center, and Embiid could be their best and cheapest option out there.

There is next years draft too. There are many legit centers in the next draft, enough so that we don't have to throw away our sixth pick.

[Future Celtics Owner]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden