Report: Joel Embiid's physical with Cleveland "did not go well"

[D.o.s.]

I hope for his sake that he's healthy enough to make teams look foolish for letting him fall (hopefully to us, in this 'stays healthy' scenario)

[byennie]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden

This is the simple, correct answer. The Celtics need to be studying this situation closely to try and go in with their eyes open. I'm sure there are some hints to be found from his age, his injury history, his build / mechanics and so on. Backs are scary, but they aren't inherently worse than feet, knees, etc, it's all about the prognosis. The ideal scenario is that he's relatively healthy long term and we're the 1st team picking to figure that out with a high degree of certainty.

[Tr1boy]

We cant take the risk. If we were stacked then yeah take the chance. If embiid becomes a bad pick this could really hurt the org. Especially in missing out on other potential all stars

Big man with back or foot problems are red flags. Sully was a diff story. Plus we took a risk with the 21st pick

[saltlover]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden

This is the simple, correct answer. The Celtics need to be studying this situation closely to try and go in with their eyes open. I'm sure there are some hints to be found from his age, his injury history, his build / mechanics and so on. Backs are scary, but they aren't inherently worse than feet, knees, etc, it's all about the prognosis. The ideal scenario is that he's relatively healthy long term and we're the 1st team picking to figure that out with a high degree of certainty.

No, it's the idealistic answer.  The doctors are not going to have seen him.  Nor will they see his medical records.  Maybe if his agent is worried about a further slide, they get 5 minutes to glance through them while the Celtics are on the clock, but that seems unrealistic too.  I don't know how many doctors are going to want to make a diagnosis without having seen him or a medical report.

[Future Celtics Owner]

So what are the chances of the Celtics getting Embiid now?

Without trading up, still basically 0.  Too much potential there.

EDIT:  Unless the medical reports are REALLY bad, in which case we might not want him anyway.

Not really.  It depends who he works out for.  If he only shows up to Cleveland, and they pass, everyone else will be picking blind.  It could be that the reports aren't great, and that makes Wiggins a better pick for Cleveland, but they'd have still taken him over Parker or Exum (hypothetically -- for all I know they like Parker more than Wiggins).  Point is, he's still #2 on Cleveland's board, but Milwaukee doesn't know this.  So they pass and take Parker.  Philly also has no info, and likes Exum.  Orlando has no info, and likes Smart.

Now he's fallen to 5 in a hurry, and no one still has any info, even though Cleveland hypothetically would have taken him at #2.

I've said all along that limiting the teams he takes a physical for could cause him to drop further than he otherwise would.

There's no way that Danny takes him in the dark at #6 if all of the teams with his medical records passed. That would be insane.

If the issue is so bad that he falls to the Celtics, then the issue is so bad that Celtics should probably pass if a potential superstar like Marcus Smart is available. It's as simple as that.

His upside is so great that he might be worth taking a waiver on after the top-2 tiers of prospects, but it's also so high that any team passing on him has to think that an injury-plagued/shortened career is a probability and not a just a possibility.

You've missed my hypothesis.  What if he only shows his medical reports to Cleveland, and Cleveland passes, taking Wiggins?  You're Milwaukee -- do you pick him or pass?  Cleveland may have seen something terrible, but Cleveland also messed up #1 overall last year, so maybe they're just messing up again.  Or heck, maybe they just like Wiggins more.  They wouldn't be the only ones.

Accordingly, Milwaukee will be left with a choice of taking Parker, who fits their needs very well, or Embiid whom they don't know is healthy.  The logical choice is Parker.

Now Philly can choose between Exum, whom they reportedly like a lot, or Embiid, who is probably better than Exum, but may be injured.  Again, they don't know.  While they took a risk last year with Noel, and they do have pick #10, it's not crazy to think they'd take Exum.

Next up is Orlando.  A healthy Embiid would be great value here, but they don't have any information either.  They also like Smart a lot.  Embiid would be tough to pass up, because of the value, but Smart is arguably higher on their board than some of the players who've already been picked.  They might pass on Embiid.

Then Utah.  Embiid would be franchise-altering if he's healthy.  But they're a small-market team and can't afford to miss on this pick.  There are a number of good options on the board that they have more information about -- all they know is all Philly, Milwaukee, and Orlando knew, which is only that Cleveland didn't pick him.  Do they take the risk, or do they proceed with their original plan, and take probably Noah Vonleh?

Voila! he's at the Celtics.  Should the Celtics take him?  At a certain point the risk is worth it.  Again, for all you know, the Cavs just wanted Wiggins more.  On the other hand, his medical issues have been kept secret for some reason, and this could be a chronic and severe issue.   Supposedly you're very high on Gordon.

Again, the issue is what happens if the only team who sees Embiid is Cleveland, and they pass.  That creates a situation in which there is very little information, and makes it very difficult to predict what will happen or should happen.  My point is that Embiid falling to #6 might not be the result of a terrible medical report, but rather a lack of information that is assumed to be a terrible medical report. The bad medical report is not a necessary condition of his possible slide, but rather only the perception of one.

TP

Spot on analysis IMO. 

Comparing Sully and Embiid isn't fair as has been mentioned earlier in the thread.  We knew more about his back situation than anybody knows about Embiid at this point.  If more medical information isn't presented and the Cavs pass on him with the 1st pick, then I'll have to believe that there is a real concern, not that the Cavs screwed up another 1st pick in the draft.

Boston should not let this report change their intended direction.  They never expected to get Embiid at 6, and if he falls to them now, it'll be for all the wrong reasons.

Rak

Saltlover thanks that analysis changes the way Im looking at the situation.

[Future Celtics Owner]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden

This is the simple, correct answer. The Celtics need to be studying this situation closely to try and go in with their eyes open. I'm sure there are some hints to be found from his age, his injury history, his build / mechanics and so on. Backs are scary, but they aren't inherently worse than feet, knees, etc, it's all about the prognosis. The ideal scenario is that he's relatively healthy long term and we're the 1st team picking to figure that out with a high degree of certainty.

No, it's the idealistic answer.  The doctors are not going to have seen him.  Nor will they see his medical records.  Maybe if his agent is worried about a further slide, they get 5 minutes to glance through them while the Celtics are on the clock, but that seems unrealistic too.  I don't know how many doctors are going to want to make a diagnosis without having seen him or a medical report.

If your scenario is correct and Embiid's back turn out to be ok or even at sully's level, then he should fire his agent (draft express says its Arn Tellem )

[kraidstar]

i see randle falling in this draft - i thought that even before the foot thing came out, he'll be a good player but i think he has a limited ceiling. and embiid is a big risk, he's still raw and has injury concerns, out of all the top prospects, i think he has the biggest chance to bust. if i'm cleveland, one one hand, they need a true elite player, and embiid has a huge ceiling - on the other hand, can they afford yet another botched draft? same with other teams, how much do they value that upside against the potential for bust?
i see vonleh moving up, there are rumors utah wants him though IMO they need athletic smaller players more than big men.

[Nef-Oracle]

We can have Monroe or Asik with tpe. No need to waste a first rounder on him & end up with a Greg Oden injury machine.

[fairweatherfan]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden

This is the simple, correct answer. The Celtics need to be studying this situation closely to try and go in with their eyes open. I'm sure there are some hints to be found from his age, his injury history, his build / mechanics and so on. Backs are scary, but they aren't inherently worse than feet, knees, etc, it's all about the prognosis. The ideal scenario is that he's relatively healthy long term and we're the 1st team picking to figure that out with a high degree of certainty.

No, it's the idealistic answer.  The doctors are not going to have seen him.  Nor will they see his medical records.  Maybe if his agent is worried about a further slide, they get 5 minutes to glance through them while the Celtics are on the clock, but that seems unrealistic too.  I don't know how many doctors are going to want to make a diagnosis without having seen him or a medical report.

If your scenario is correct and Embiid's back turn out to be ok or even at sully's level, then he should fire his agent (draft express says its Arn Tellem )

Yeah, there are good reasons to conceal your medical records when you're likely to go #1 - extra info can only hurt you at that point.

But if you're sliding down the draft board (though it's not for sure Embiid actually is), hiding your medical records is only going to cost you more draft slots and money.  Unless, of course, what's in them would make you slide even farther.  I suppose they could be doing it to target a specific destination, but that seems a bit dubious.  I'm guessing it's pretty bad if that's the case.

[86MaxwellSmart]

What if we end up with both Embiid AND Randle...?

[saltlover]

This would truly need to be our doctors pick. If he can get on the court then we take him, if he never can get on the court all the potential in the world does not matter .....ala Greg Oden

This is the simple, correct answer. The Celtics need to be studying this situation closely to try and go in with their eyes open. I'm sure there are some hints to be found from his age, his injury history, his build / mechanics and so on. Backs are scary, but they aren't inherently worse than feet, knees, etc, it's all about the prognosis. The ideal scenario is that he's relatively healthy long term and we're the 1st team picking to figure that out with a high degree of certainty.

No, it's the idealistic answer.  The doctors are not going to have seen him.  Nor will they see his medical records.  Maybe if his agent is worried about a further slide, they get 5 minutes to glance through them while the Celtics are on the clock, but that seems unrealistic too.  I don't know how many doctors are going to want to make a diagnosis without having seen him or a medical report.

If your scenario is correct and Embiid's back turn out to be ok or even at sully's level, then he should fire his agent (draft express says its Arn Tellem )

Potentially.  But he's not the consensus #1, or even #2, if healthy.  Tellem may be trying to create an appearance of inevitability, that of course he should be #1, so why should he even work out elsewhere.  The more teams Embiid goes to, the more Tellem would be admitting uncertainty about Embiid's situation.  Also, there would be more people who may be able to leak things, or create false rumors.

Perhaps this rumor wasn't started by Cleveland, but was started by Milwaukee, who wants to get information on his health.  There's a lot of information and misinformation on both sides of the equation -- it's certainly not a guarantee one way or the other.  There are also a lot of egos.  As I said earlier in the conversation, I think it's a mistake to go this route, but if Embiid winds up #1 or #2, regardless of health, no one will have room to criticize.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Okay so according to this (actually, pretty great) article I found from 3/31:

http://regressing.deadspin.com/just-how-serious-is-joel-embiids-injury-1542399946

He was diagnosed with a spinal stress fracture in either February or March.  The analysis from this was article says that he is at higher risk to get them again later in life and that the only real thing he could do at that point is just rest.  However, with rest at the time of this injury for a few months, he could completely recover. 

Here is his ESPN Game Log:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/67433/joel-embiid

He stopped playing as of 3/1 and didn't play another game after that.  So it seems like he perfectly followed the doctor's advice.  I think that it's totally plausible that what Cleveland is worried about is the reoccurance of stress fractures later in life.  However, he seems to have done exactly what he needed to do since his injury - rest - and he will now be in the hands of an NBA medical staff.

I then looked up spinal stress fracture facts for teens: http://www.pamf.org/teen/health/sports/stressfractures.html#Treatment

since Embiid is either 19 or 20 as he was born in 1994.  It seems like with a ton of rest and good medical care, he can overcome it.  He will have to watch his weight, stay in great muscular shape and do a ton of stretching, but it seems totally plausible that this could be controlled.  We know what it is and we know what the treatment is. 

While this Google searching I just did is clearly not the best medical advice, the Cavs' player analysis is clearly not the best either.  They could just be paranoid about ignoring Bennett's red flags and now are just going for the safest possible choice.  Everyone who saw Embiid's workout say he is an absolute monster.

[saltlover]

Okay so according to this (actually, pretty great) article I found from 3/31:

http://regressing.deadspin.com/just-how-serious-is-joel-embiids-injury-1542399946

He was diagnosed with a spinal stress fracture in either February or March.  The analysis from this was article says that he is at higher risk to get them again later in life and that the only real thing he could do at that point is just rest.  However, with rest at the time of this injury for a few months, he could completely recover. 

Here is his ESPN Game Log:

http://espn.go.com/mens-college-basketball/player/gamelog/_/id/67433/joel-embiid

He stopped playing as of 3/1 and didn't play another game after that.  So it seems like he perfectly followed the doctor's advice.  I think that it's totally plausible that what Cleveland is worried about is the reoccurance of stress fractures later in life.  However, he seems to have done exactly what he needed to do since his injury - rest - and he will now be in the hands of an NBA medical staff.

I then looked up spinal stress fracture facts for teens: http://www.pamf.org/teen/health/sports/stressfractures.html#Treatment

since Embiid is either 19 or 20 as he was born in 1994.  It seems like with a ton of rest and good medical care, he can overcome it.  He will have to watch his weight, stay in great muscular shape and do a ton of stretching, but it seems totally plausible that this could be controlled.  We know what it is and we know what the treatment is. 

While this Google searching I just did is clearly not the best medical advice, the Cavs' player analysis is clearly not the best either.  They could just be paranoid about ignoring Bennett's red flags and now are just going for the safest possible choice.  Everyone who saw Embiid's workout say he is an absolute monster.

Or he could have been diagnosed with something else in addition or instead.  If he were diagnosed with stenosis, for instance, they wouldn't rush out and have a press conference.

[Quetzalcoatl]

Stuff I wrote

Or he could have been diagnosed with something else in addition or instead.  If he were diagnosed with stenosis, for instance, they wouldn't rush out and have a press conference.

My take on that is that if it were absolutely crippling, they just wouldn't show anybody anything.  They only showed Cleveland because they don't want them to draft him.  If they know that Cleveland is really injury adverse due to drafting Bennett, it would make sense that they would scare them with spinal fractures popping up again later in life.  Their whole package was designed to deter Cleveland. 

Also, he was apparently very mobile at all his workouts and if he had stenosis/arthritis like that, he wouldn't look quite so good.  I guess they could have pumped him full of cortisone and anti-inflammatories, but if it were that bad, I really think they wouldn't have showed anybody.  Unless - do they have to show the #1 drafting team medical records by NBA rules or something? 

I just think his ceiling is so high and the risk of busting on one of the other guys at #6 is high enough that we should take him if he's there.  I totally get that he could never step foot on a court, but the potential is literally winning multiple titles.

[saltlover]

Stuff I wrote

Or he could have been diagnosed with something else in addition or instead.  If he were diagnosed with stenosis, for instance, they wouldn't rush out and have a press conference.

My take on that is that if it were absolutely crippling, they just wouldn't show anybody anything.  They only showed Cleveland because they don't want them to draft him.  If they know that Cleveland is really injury adverse due to drafting Bennett, it would make sense that they would scare them with spinal fractures popping up again later in life.  Their whole package was designed to deter Cleveland. 

Also, he was apparently very mobile at all his workouts and if he had stenosis/arthritis like that, he wouldn't look quite so good.  I guess they could have pumped him full of cortisone and anti-inflammatories, but if it were that bad, I really think they wouldn't have showed anybody.  Unless - do they have to show the #1 drafting team medical records by NBA rules or something? 

I just think his ceiling is so high and the risk of busting on one of the other guys at #6 is high enough that we should take him if he's there.  I totally get that he could never step foot on a court, but the potential is literally winning multiple titles.

I don't find your opinion invalid.  I think this just shows how little information there is, and how much risk will be on GMs when they make their selection.  You don't want to have a bust on your hand in a historic draft, but he's high-reward, so......  I think ESPN is loving it, if nothing else.  The first hour of the draft will be must-see TV.