Chad Ford Mock 7.0 today Gordon and Porzingis

[D.o.s.]

Most people have trouble believing there are more than 2-4 great prospects in any draft. And the media is always going to be talking about the top 3-4 prospects. That goes for any sport and any draft. That's just the way the media is, and that's just the way fans are.

They don't trust their own judgment so they convince themselves there are only 2-4 great players in any draft, and then pounce on anybody who suggests otherwise, like a pack of coyotes.

There's little risk in doing so. Even if we drafted Gordon and he had a good year, they would search for a span of games (probably in the first couple months of the season) and point out his struggles during that time, and insist the rest of the season was a fluke.

That buys them another year, and by year three nobody remembers all the people who bashed Gordon before the draft.

We see this now with Olynyk, whose post-All Star performance was just a "fluke", and all the people who hated the pick are buying themselves another year.

It's a very low risk position, in the herd.

Except that, out of the 6-7 prospects who are routinely touted as great from this draft, it's only people obsessed with finding the lesser prospects and proving everyone else wrong by virtue of 'not being afraid to take a risk' that like Aaron Gordon.

[NorthernLightning]

Most people have trouble believing there are more than 2-4 great prospects in any draft. And the media is always going to be talking about the top 3-4 prospects. That goes for any sport and any draft. That's just the way the media is, and that's just the way fans are.

They don't trust their own judgment so they convince themselves there are only 2-4 great players in any draft, and then pounce on anybody who suggests otherwise, like a pack of coyotes.

There's little risk in doing so. Even if we drafted Gordon and he had a good year, they would search for a span of games (probably in the first couple months of the season) and point out his struggles during that time, and insist the rest of the season was a fluke.

That buys them another year, and by year three nobody remembers all the people who bashed Gordon before the draft.

We see this now with Olynyk, whose post-All Star performance was just a "fluke", and all the people who hated the pick are buying themselves another year.

It's a very low risk position, in the herd.

Except that, out of the 6-7 prospects who are routinely touted as great from this draft, it's only people obsessed with finding the lesser prospects and proving everyone else wrong by virtue of 'not being afraid to take a risk' that like Aaron Gordon.

Routines are things we do without thinking.

[kozlodoev]

Except that, out of the 6-7 prospects who are routinely touted as great from this draft, it's only people obsessed with finding the lesser prospects and proving everyone else wrong by virtue of 'not being afraid to take a risk' that like Aaron Gordon.

I think arguing with NL is wasting time, it invariably ends in exchanging hollow aphorisms.

I'm just curious who's the next great prospect he's going to "discover" after Saric, Porzingis, and Gordon.

[D.o.s.]

Except that, out of the 6-7 prospects who are routinely touted as great from this draft, it's only people obsessed with finding the lesser prospects and proving everyone else wrong by virtue of 'not being afraid to take a risk' that like Aaron Gordon.

I think arguing with NL is wasting time, it invariably ends in exchanging hollow aphorisms.

I'm just curious who's the next great prospect he's going to "discover" after Saric, Porzingis, and Gordon.

He's usually about a week later than Triboy, so we've got a bit of a barometer.

[NorthernLightning]

There's nothing new about Gordon and Saric, they've been on the NBA radar as great prospects for years, Gordon as a higher rated prospect than Saric.

DWade was an afterthought in the 2003 draft, with all the attention on Lebron and Carmelo and Darko. Did that make Wade non-elite just because he didn't get much attention?

Gordon has been talked about as an elite talent for years now, even if you just discovered him and decided he was a much weaker prospect than the ESPN guys like Parker and Wiggins.

[D.o.s.]

LOL at the idea of "all the attention on Darko" or the idea that Wade was some sort of a dark horse in 2003.

[Celtics4ever]

DWade was an afterthought in the 2003 draft, with all the attention on Lebron and Carmelo and Darko. Did that make Wade non-elite just because he didn't get much attention?

Not really, he did real well in the NCAA, but perhaps you don't watch the NCAA's?  Fifth round pick is pretty high and he won the first ring out of that crew and to this day has the most rings of that crew.

http://www.examiner.com/article/marquette-rewind-wade-notches-triple-double-against-kentucky-ncaa-tournament

[Donoghus]

DWade was an afterthought in the 2003 draft, with all the attention on Lebron and Carmelo and Darko. Did that make Wade non-elite just because he didn't get much attention?

Not really, he did real well in the NCAA, but perhaps you don't watch the NCAA's?  Fifth round pick is pretty high and he won the first ring out of that crew and to this day has the most rings of that crew.

http://www.examiner.com/article/marquette-rewind-wade-notches-triple-double-against-kentucky-ncaa-tournament

Agreed. After that '03 NCAA tourney, he was getting a lot of heat heading into that draft along with Lebron, Melo, Darko, etc...
 

[kozlodoev]

It's funny that you'd mention the 2003 draft. You know who the Dario Saric of 2003 was? Maciej Lampe, "a seven footer with perimeter skills, the next Dirk Nowitzki". People projected him to go top 10. Well, he went 30th, and history shows there was a good reason for that.

[NorthernLightning]

When Gordon goes on to have a great career you guys will be saying you considered him one of the elite prospects in this draft.

[NorthernLightning]

It's funny that you'd mention the 2003 draft. You know who the Dario Saric of 2003 was? Maciej Lampe, "a seven footer with perimeter skills, the next Dirk Nowitzki". People projected him to go top 10. Well, he went 30th, and history shows there was a good reason for that.

You don't even know Saric from Porzingis.

[kozlodoev]

It's funny that you'd mention the 2003 draft. You know who the Dario Saric of 2003 was? Maciej Lampe, "a seven footer with perimeter skills, the next Dirk Nowitzki". People projected him to go top 10. Well, he went 30th, and history shows there was a good reason for that.

You don't even know Saric from Porzingis.

Of course not. I've already conceded you're the only one here that knows anything about anything.

Also, you're the only one who's delusional enough to think that Saric will ever be an NBA SF.

[Eddie20]

It's funny that you'd mention the 2003 draft. You know who the Dario Saric of 2003 was? Maciej Lampe, "a seven footer with perimeter skills, the next Dirk Nowitzki". People projected him to go top 10. Well, he went 30th, and history shows there was a good reason for that.

Yeah, but at the same time the focus on international scouting is lightyears ahead of where it was then. In addition, I think Lampe had some issues with his contract that would prevent him from playing in the league that season. I believe that's what scared off teams.

[Donoghus]

When Gordon goes on to have a great career you guys will be saying you considered him one of the elite prospects in this draft.

Will we be hearing from you if Saric or Porzingis flops or Gordon doesn't live up to expectations?

Or will that get swept under the radar and pretend it never happened?

[colincb]

A lot if not most players do not get better. That's why the NBA Draft is littered with role players and busts every single year.

Sooner or later, that will sink in.

especially players that shoot 29%

Shoots 29% eh? I heard he shoots 50% at 18 years old, but what do I know? I didn't search for the least flattering sub-category of a statistic and misrepresent it.

He shoots 29% if he's not at the rim.

He's got a  much better chance of having his percentages go down in the NBA than up. Kid has no post game whatsoever, he'll be playing the SF, and he's not getting 46% of his shots at the rim when LBJ, who's a much stronger player and much better driver, gets 34%. He's going to get smacked by bigger guys before he gets to the basket. He's going to get defended a lot better too everywhere on the floor including beyond the arc, where he's a spot up shooter, not a shot creator. It doesn't matter how he did in college, it's how his game translates to the NBA.


http://hoop-math.com/Arizona2014.php

http://www.numberfire.com/nba/news/2380/lebron-james-knows-his-strengths-and-that-s-big-for-the-heat

So the fact that he won't be 19 until September or that he was the best player, despite his deficiencies, for a team that spent much of the season ranked number 1 is not relevant at all.  Lets ignore the fact he was one of the most agile and fastest guys at the combine despite being 6'9". 

Let's call him a rich man's version of Tony Allen even though he is four inches taller and much more athletic.  Let's also ignore that he makes the right plays on offense while Tonly Allen runs around like an idiot... because he's only a rich man's Tonly Allen.

Winning California's best high school basketball player of the year twice and the Mc Donald's all American game MVP  means he has limited skills.  Afterall, an 18 year old man with an awesome work ethic, is unlikely to improve on his skills or develop more strength.

All I care about is how Gordon's going to translate into the NBA. Gordon can't create shots against defenders and doesn't shoot well when he's wide open, even at the FT line. Thats what the stats say. That's what I see when I look at taped breakdowns.  You don't get 46% of your baskets at the rim in the NBA as a SF when LeBron's getting 34% (and he's the best I've ever seen getting to the basket as a forward over a long period of time).

Put Gordon's rim attempts at a generous 30% and his TS%, given his shooting percentages last year, drop to the bottom 20% in the NBA. Put his at-the-rim shots at 25% of all attempts and he's in the bottom 10%. That how bad his game and shooting percentages translate, despite his passing, his defense, his awards, his winning attitude, etc.

His shooting has to improve dramatically to get to mediocrity to justify a pick at 6 given the alternatives available in this draft even if he has all-NBA defensive potential.