Dieng, Muhammad and 13th pick for Rondo trade idea: 2015-2016 playoff bound

[Tr1boy]

The pre big three 2006-2007 team didn't make me confident the team would get anywhere fast. Guys like GG, DW, TA were not going to be go to guys in this league.  AJ and RR were going to be good but needed help

I don't see this problem with a core of Sully, KO, Dieng, Smart and Gordon. All are considered top 10-12 players if the draft was redone.  And as we move fwd ppl keep saying we got a steal in Sully, KO bc it's true.   Dieng to me is considered a steal and a team like the Bobcats made a mistake picking Zeller over him. Bc one key reason was Dieng is older

Smart and AA imo would be a top 3 pick in any other drafts. If they stayed another year in college, they would dominate imo and we wouldn't have a chance to pick a Gordon in next years draft. Not likely

[Tr1boy]

imo the bottom line is, this would be a good return for Rondo.  You get a future starting Center , Muhammad has loads of potential still and a 13th pick you could potentially flip with the 17th to get into the top 10 to draft a Smart.

Rondo + current lineup is not going to mesh. If Ainge can't make a deal for a player (like a LMA) then keep the team as it is, and trade Rondo to try to accelerate the rebuild

[Celtics18]

imo the bottom line is, this would be a good return for Rondo.  You get a future starting Center , Muhammad has loads of potential still and a 13th pick you could potentially flip with the 17th to get into the top 10 to draft a Smart.

Rondo + current lineup is not going to mesh. If Ainge can't make a deal for a player (like a LMA) then keep the team as it is, and trade Rondo to try to accelerate the rebuild

This is a baseless assertion.

[Boris Badenov]

Our #6 pick could easily turn out to be a complete bust (name the #6 picks in the last 30 years who turned out to be as good as Kevin Love!)

And yes i can tell you a player that was drafted 6th recently that imo is considered to be around Love's level or just below and that is Damien Lillard.  How long did it take him to become as good as he has? And he was drafted from a weaker class than the upcoming 2014 draft

Ranking Lillard equal to Love is charitable at best, but more important you again are just completely cherry-picking.  You must consider the best picks and the worst as part of the possible outcomes. Here's the whole list.

2013   Nerlens Noel   
2012   Damian Lillard   
2011   Jan Vesely
2010   Ekpe Udoh
2009   Jonny Flynn
2008   Danilo Gallinari   
2007   Yi Jianlian   
2006   Brandon Roy   
2005   Martell Webster   
2004   Josh Childress   
2003   Chris Kaman   
2002   Dajuan Wagner   
2001   Shane Battier   
2000   DerMarr Johnson   
1999   Wally Szczerbiak   
1998   Robert Traylor   
1997   Ron Mercer   
1996   Antoine Walker   
1995   Bryant Reeves   
1994   Sharone Wright   
1993   Calbert Cheaney
1992   Tom Gugliotta
1991   Doug Smith   
1990   Felton Spencer   
1989   Stacey King   
1988   Hersey Hawkins   
1987   Kenny Smith   
1986   William Bedford   
1985   Joe Kleine   
1984   Mel Turpin   
1983   Russell Cross

Who's your best case pick here? Are you going to be happy if we hang on the the #6 pick and end up with someone as awful as Turpin? Or Flynn? or Bedford? or Wagner? Or Yi?

How many of those guys are better than Love? Even if you grant Lillard that's 1/31, which is around a 3% chance of getting someone comparable and a 97% chance of getting someone substantially worse.

If you think those odds are good, I'll sell you a lottery ticket for $10,000. It has a 3% chance of giving you your $10,000 back and a 97% chance of giving you $100.

[Tr1boy]

Our #6 pick could easily turn out to be a complete bust (name the #6 picks in the last 30 years who turned out to be as good as Kevin Love!)

And yes i can tell you a player that was drafted 6th recently that imo is considered to be around Love's level or just below and that is Damien Lillard.  How long did it take him to become as good as he has? And he was drafted from a weaker class than the upcoming 2014 draft

Ranking Lillard equal to Love is charitable at best, but more important you again are just completely cherry-picking.  You must consider the best picks and the worst as part of the possible outcomes. Here's the whole list.

2013   Nerlens Noel   
2012   Damian Lillard   
2011   Jan Vesely
2010   Ekpe Udoh
2009   Jonny Flynn
2008   Danilo Gallinari   
2007   Yi Jianlian   
2006   Brandon Roy   
2005   Martell Webster   
2004   Josh Childress   
2003   Chris Kaman   
2002   Dajuan Wagner   
2001   Shane Battier   
2000   DerMarr Johnson   
1999   Wally Szczerbiak   
1998   Robert Traylor   
1997   Ron Mercer   
1996   Antoine Walker   
1995   Bryant Reeves   
1994   Sharone Wright   
1993   Calbert Cheaney
1992   Tom Gugliotta
1991   Doug Smith   
1990   Felton Spencer   
1989   Stacey King   
1988   Hersey Hawkins   
1987   Kenny Smith   
1986   William Bedford   
1985   Joe Kleine   
1984   Mel Turpin   
1983   Russell Cross

Who's your best case pick here? Are you going to be happy if we hang on the the #6 pick and end up with someone as awful as Turpin? Or Flynn? or Bedford? or Wagner? Or Yi?

How many of those guys are better than Love? Even if you grant Lillard that's 1/31, which is around a 3% chance of getting someone comparable and a 97% chance of getting someone substantially worse.

If you think those odds are good, I'll sell you a lottery ticket for $10,000. It has a 3% chance of giving you your $10,000 back and a 97% chance of giving you $100.

there is a list of very good players on that list. Of course not all the picks are going to turn out well. Do all #1 or #2 picks come out as franchise calibre players? Even love drafted 5th , there was no uncertainty he would be a good player he is today.

what your basically is saying is, forget about the rebuilding process that all teams should go through. Instead skip this and just mash up all stars together.

Whats the point of having 20 other teams then?? just let them be farm teams ?

[MBunge]

By 2015-2016 my projection

Dieng - 10 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks per game
KO - 17 ppg , 7 reb, 1.5 assists
AA -  12 ppg, 7 reb, 1.5 assists, 1 block per game
JG - 17 ppg
MS - 15 ppg, 6 reb, 7 assists, 1 block per game, 1.5 steals

Just for some perspective...

In 2012-2013, before he got hurt in the playoffs, Russell Westbrook's regular season stats were...

23.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.8 steals

So, part of this fantasy is that Marcus Smart is going to be as good or better than Westbrook in most aspects of the game.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

By 2015-2016 my projection

Dieng - 10 points, 11 rebounds, 2 blocks per game
KO - 17 ppg , 7 reb, 1.5 assists
AA -  12 ppg, 7 reb, 1.5 assists, 1 block per game
JG - 17 ppg
MS - 15 ppg, 6 reb, 7 assists, 1 block per game, 1.5 steals

Just for some perspective...

In 2012-2013, before he got hurt in the playoffs, Russell Westbrook's regular season stats were...

23.2 points, 5.2 rebounds, 7.4 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.8 steals

So, part of this fantasy is that Marcus Smart is going to be as good or better than Westbrook in most aspects of the game.

Mike

no scoring wise but everything else yes. What indications has Smart given you that he won't be able to?

He is built like a tank was prob the best rebounder and defender for his position in all of college 2 years in a row

not even RW showed this promise in college and has turned out to be an excellent player.  It's like saying Zach Lavine is going to be a super rebounder bc of his athleticism/explosiveness vs Smart. Would you bet your money on this assumption?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utw7005-Pw

[BigAlTheFuture]

But in his first year? You have sky high expectations if you think Smart can put up better numbers than a top 5 PG in his ROOKIE year. It's also silly to assumes Olynyk makes the jump to 17 points, 7 rebounds and also silly to think a team full of rookies and sophomores can be in the same mold as Pistons and Spurs, who has had years and years of chemistry building to get to that point of team basketball. It is also silly to automatically pencil in a team with no player over 25 would make the playoffs. The talent is there, but we would all be stupid if we bet our money on this team finishing any better than 30 wins.

[Tr1boy]

couple smarts defensive capability with

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VXJqaINAMCg

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dBlNWCtg8hk


and this is going to be a very strong defensive team unlike last seasons celtics team. No free layups

[Boris Badenov]

Our #6 pick could easily turn out to be a complete bust (name the #6 picks in the last 30 years who turned out to be as good as Kevin Love!)

And yes i can tell you a player that was drafted 6th recently that imo is considered to be around Love's level or just below and that is Damien Lillard.  How long did it take him to become as good as he has? And he was drafted from a weaker class than the upcoming 2014 draft

Ranking Lillard equal to Love is charitable at best, but more important you again are just completely cherry-picking.  You must consider the best picks and the worst as part of the possible outcomes. Here's the whole list.

2013   Nerlens Noel   
2012   Damian Lillard   
2011   Jan Vesely
2010   Ekpe Udoh
2009   Jonny Flynn
2008   Danilo Gallinari   
2007   Yi Jianlian   
2006   Brandon Roy   
2005   Martell Webster   
2004   Josh Childress   
2003   Chris Kaman   
2002   Dajuan Wagner   
2001   Shane Battier   
2000   DerMarr Johnson   
1999   Wally Szczerbiak   
1998   Robert Traylor   
1997   Ron Mercer   
1996   Antoine Walker   
1995   Bryant Reeves   
1994   Sharone Wright   
1993   Calbert Cheaney
1992   Tom Gugliotta
1991   Doug Smith   
1990   Felton Spencer   
1989   Stacey King   
1988   Hersey Hawkins   
1987   Kenny Smith   
1986   William Bedford   
1985   Joe Kleine   
1984   Mel Turpin   
1983   Russell Cross

Who's your best case pick here? Are you going to be happy if we hang on the the #6 pick and end up with someone as awful as Turpin? Or Flynn? or Bedford? or Wagner? Or Yi?

How many of those guys are better than Love? Even if you grant Lillard that's 1/31, which is around a 3% chance of getting someone comparable and a 97% chance of getting someone substantially worse.

If you think those odds are good, I'll sell you a lottery ticket for $10,000. It has a 3% chance of giving you your $10,000 back and a 97% chance of giving you $100.

there is a list of very good players on that list. Of course not all the picks are going to turn out well. Do all #1 or #2 picks come out as franchise calibre players? Even love drafted 5th , there was no uncertainty he would be a good player he is today.

what your basically is saying is, forget about the rebuilding process that all teams should go through. Instead skip this and just mash up all stars together.

Nope. You never answered my question and you clearly don't understand what I'm saying at all.

I'm saying value assets over the full range of possible outcomes - not some fantasy world where only the best cases come to pass.

I'm fine with rebuilding through the draft or trading for stars. But let's be realistic about what risks rebuilding through the draft entails. Getting all fired up based on a bunch of highlight videos on Youtube, or what a player did against college competition, or projecting potential based on a rookie NBA player's 5 best games of the year rather than the full body of work, is naive.

[slamdunk]

I don't know about the value but why would Minnesota do this when they already have Marco Ricky Rubio?

[hpantazo]

I don't know about the value but why would Minnesota do this when they already have Marco Rubio?

If they actually had Marco Rubio, they would be much better politically as a front office.

[MBunge]

no scoring wise but everything else yes. What indications has Smart given you that he won't be able to?

He is built like a tank was prob the best rebounder and defender for his position in all of college 2 years in a row

not even RW showed this promise in college and has turned out to be an excellent player.  It's like saying Zach Lavine is going to be a super rebounder bc of his athleticism/explosiveness vs Smart. Would you bet your money on this assumption?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utw7005-Pw

Anything is possible but it should be understood that you want to get rid of Rondo and not get Love because you think Marcus Smart is not only going to be as good or better than Westbrook, but you assume he'll be that good by about his second year in the league.  If you think that much of college performance, why not draft McDermott because by your logic he's going to be a Durant/LeBron level scorer and rebounder in the NBA.

Mike

[Tr1boy]

no scoring wise but everything else yes. What indications has Smart given you that he won't be able to?

He is built like a tank was prob the best rebounder and defender for his position in all of college 2 years in a row

not even RW showed this promise in college and has turned out to be an excellent player.  It's like saying Zach Lavine is going to be a super rebounder bc of his athleticism/explosiveness vs Smart. Would you bet your money on this assumption?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0utw7005-Pw

Anything is possible but it should be understood that you want to get rid of Rondo and not get Love because you think Marcus Smart is not only going to be as good or better than Westbrook, but you assume he'll be that good by about his second year in the league.  If you think that much of college performance, why not draft McDermott because by your logic he's going to be a Durant/LeBron level scorer and rebounder in the NBA.

Mike

why do you keep twisting what i said?? I  Didn't say Smart will be as good or better than RW. I said not likely as a scorer but everything else just as good. Smart will be a better defender than RW i would bet

And no Mcdermott won't be as good as Durant/Lebron. He didn't score 25 or 40 points against top teams.  Smart on the other hand actually played better against top teams vs low level schools

[bmac934]

absolutely not, its starting to be depressing how little other celtics fans think of rajon rondo
shabazz is awful, dieng is decent, and who do you think we can get at 13 to make up for it
seriously why is everyone posting these awful rondo trade ideas, were not desperate