Boston Celtics Off-Season Predictions

[TDOG71498]

It's not a question of willingness to spend. It's a question of the rules of the NBA. Discussions of tax penalties are not relevant to the conversation, because they have nothing to do with the salary cap, or cap space.

The Celtics will only be able to sign free agents using minimum contract offers, and the mid level exception, worth next year about $5.3 mil. They have guaranteed contracts owed to the following (in millions):

Rondo: $12.9
Wallace: $10.1
Green: $9.2
Bass: $6.9
Faverani: $2.1
Olynyk: $2.1
Sullinger: $1.4
total: $44.7

None of these contracts can be altered in any way.

Now, you also need to add in cap holds for Avery Bradley until he is formally signed to his next contract. That's $6.3 mil. You also need to add a cap hold for the $10 mil trade exception, assuming you wish to use it to acquire Gordon Hayward. New total: $61 mil.

Even assuming that Joel Anthony decided not to exercise his player option (all reports have indicated that he will), and that Ainge will simply cut all non-guaranteed contracts from the roster (Bogans, Pressey, Johnson, and Babb), you'd still have to include a cap hold for the #17 pick, plus a cap hold for the MLE of $5.3 million.

This is an incredibly simplified cap forecast for the Celtics next season, but it still shows that they will only have the MLE to spread around in free agency.
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End thread.
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1. Wallace, Green, Sullinger, and Bass's contracts are not Boston's problems in this article because they were traded away.

2. Faverani is an unrestricted FA, so his contract don't matter.

3. Hayward has said he will sign for 8-12 million a year depending on the situation. Now Boston's situation would be a good one for him, in which he would take his lowest salary wanted. Because in Boston he would re-unite with Brad Stevens. That's a plus. Another plus is that boston acquired Love and Sanders and already has rondo. That would put Hayward on a team that would be a playoff contendor.

4. Anything else you got to say?

[Lucky17]

1. Wallace, Green, Sullinger, and Bass's contracts are not Boston's problems in this article because they were traded away.

2. Faverani is an unrestricted FA, so his contract don't matter.

3. Hayward has said he will sign for 8-12 million a year depending on the situation. Now Boston's situation would be a good one for him, in which he would take his lowest salary wanted. Because in Boston he would re-unite with Brad Stevens. That's a plus. Another plus is that boston acquired Love and Sanders and already has rondo. That would put Hayward on a team that would be a playoff contendor.

4. Anything else you got to say?

1. But Wallace, Green, Bass, and Sullinger all were used to bring back salary via trades. They didn't evaporate. If you're trading those four for Love and Sanders, I think there's very little, if any, salary reduction for next season for the Celtics. [Sanders "poison-pill" contract makes trading for him this current year extremely difficult, but once his new contract kicks in next season, Wallace would match it fine.]

Edit: Checking the numbers more closely, there are only about $1 mil in payroll savings here for the Celtics.

2. Faverani is not a UFA next season, his contract is guaranteed.

3. That's fine. If he's willing to sign for $10 million, Hayward would nicely fit into the TE the Celtics have at their disposal. If he wants $11 million, the Celtics will be unable to acquire him that way.

4. We'll see. I'm trying to show you how all of these moves aren't possible, at least the way you've laid them out here. If Okafor were willing to sign for the vet min instead of at a little more than half the MLE, or if one the other free agents were acquired by using what's left of the Lee TE or via trade using pieces like Babb or Johnson, or signed for whatever's left of the MLE after Okafor is signed, then perhaps you could field a roster something like this.

I don't know who your experts are at ESPN or CBS, but either they didn't understand fully what you wanted to do, or they are ignoring some key pieces of information about the CBA.

[TDOG71498]

1. But Wallace, Green, Bass, and Sullinger all were used to bring back salary via trades. They didn't evaporate. If you're trading those four for Love and Sanders, I think there's very little, if any, salary reduction for next season for the Celtics. [Sanders "poison-pill" contract makes trading for him this current year extremely difficult, but once his new contract kicks in next season, Wallace would match it fine.]

Edit: Checking the numbers more closely, there are only about $1 mil in payroll savings here for the Celtics.

2. Faverani is not a UFA next season, his contract is guaranteed.

3. That's fine. If he's willing to sign for $10 million, Hayward would nicely fit into the TE the Celtics have at their disposal. If he wants $11 million, the Celtics will be unable to acquire him that way.

4. We'll see. I'm trying to show you how these moves aren't possible. I don't know who your experts are at ESPN or CBS, but either they didn't understand fully what you wanted to do, or they are ignoring some key pieces of information about the CBA.
[/quote]

Here you go MR. SMARTGUY.

Tell Me This Is Wrong Cuz I Did The Math

Projected Boston Roster: (salaries rounded up)
1. K. Love: 16,000,000
2. R. Rondo: 13,000,000
3. L. Sanders: 11,000,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,000,000
5. J. Bayless: 4,000,000
6. J. Anthony: 3,800,000
7. X. Henry: 3,000,000
8. K. Olynyk: 2,500,000
9. C. Early: 2,000,000 (rookie)
10. B. Roberts: 2,000,000
11. J. Vesely: 2,000,000
12. J. Hamilton: 1,500,000
13. C. Johnson: 1,000,000 (un-guaranteed)
14. C. Babb: 1,000,000 (un-guaranteed)
15. C. Iverson: 750,000

Team Total Salary: 73,550,000

Cap Holds 2014-15:
47,000,000 (without Anthony's and Bayless's cap holds since signed new deal or accepted PO) -24,000,000 after Humphries and Bradley sign new deals
Total cap hold: 23,000,000 after free agency

Total Cap Hit:
96,550,000 (rounded up)

77,000,000 luxury tax

 96,550,000
-77,000,000

Total amount over cap: 19,550,000

Cap Penalty for 19 million over: $3.25 per dollar over

Total 2014-15 season cap hit after penalty: 160,087,500 total due to NBA
Total 2013-14 season cap hit after penalty: 164,712,500 total due to NBA

Boston's roster is 73,550,000 exactly 10 million over league cap. But under league luxury of 77 million. No penalty do for Roster. Now add the cap holds 96,550,000 total salary. 19,550,000 over luxury tax limit. Boston owes 63,537,500 in penalties in 2014-15.

Last year: (rounded up)
Boston's roster is 70,700,000 exactly 12,500,000 over league cap. But under league luxury of 71 million. No penalty do for roster. Now add the cap holds 93,050,000 total salary. 22,050,000 over luxury tax limit. Boston owes 71,662,500 in penalties in 2013-14.

Comparing last season to my projected team next season. Boston actually would be paying less then last year, and would have a way better team. Anything you got to prove now.

And also Vitor Faverani's contract is un-guaranteed.

[Lucky17]

Here you go MR. SMARTGUY.

Tell Me This Is Wrong Cuz I Did The Math

Projected Boston Roster: (salaries rounded up)
1. K. Love: 16,000,000
2. R. Rondo: 13,000,000
3. L. Sanders: 11,000,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,000,000
5. J. Bayless: 4,000,000
6. J. Anthony: 3,800,000
7. X. Henry: 3,000,000
8. K. Olynyk: 2,500,000
9. C. Early: 2,000,000 (rookie)
10. B. Roberts: 2,000,000
11. J. Vesely: 2,000,000
12. J. Hamilton: 1,500,000
13. C. Johnson: 1,000,000 (un-guaranteed)
14. C. Babb: 1,000,000 (un-guaranteed)
15. C. Iverson: 750,000

Team Total Salary: 73,550,000

Yes, the salaries total $73.55 million. But because the Celtics only have the $5.3 mil MLE at their disposal to sign free agents, they cannot sign Henry, Vesely, Hamilton, and Roberts for the amounts you specify. You'll have to acquire them some other way via trade.

Also, what happened to Bradley? Did you let him walk, or use him in a S&T?

Cap Holds 2014-15:
47,000,000 (without Anthony's and Bayless's cap holds since signed new deal or accepted PO) -24,000,000 after Humphries and Bradley sign new deals
Total cap hold: 23,000,000 after free agency

Total Cap Hit:
96,550,000 (rounded up)

77,000,000 luxury tax

 96,550,000
-77,000,000

Total amount over cap: 19,550,000

Cap Penalty for 19 million over: $3.25 per dollar over

Total 2014-15 season cap hit after penalty: 160,087,500 total due to NBA

Boston's roster is 73,550,000 exactly 10 million over league cap. But under league luxury of 77 million. No penalty do for Roster. Now add the cap holds 96,550,000 total salary. 19,550,000 over luxury tax limit. Boston owes 63,537,500 in penalties in 2014-15.

Last year: (rounded up)
Boston's roster is 70,700,000 exactly 12,500,000 over league cap. But under league luxury of 71 million. No penalty do for roster. Now add the cap holds 93,050,000 total salary. 22,050,000 over luxury tax limit. Boston owes 71,662,500 in penalties in 2013-14.

Comparing last season to my projected team next season. Boston actually would be paying less then last year, and would have a way better team. Anything you got to prove now.

And also Vitor Faverani's contract is un-guaranteed.

None of this section means anything. Cap holds are not actually assessed as salary, so there is no bearing on the luxury tax, and no penalties to pay.

Faverani's contract is fully guaranteed next season, as you will see here (his 2015-16 salary is fully unguaranteed):

http://data.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jsp

[BigAlTheFuture]

I think Lucky just proved you wrong numerous times, T-Dog

[Lucky17]

Let's look at this differently.

1. K. Love: 16,000,000
2. R. Rondo: 13,000,000
3. L. Sanders: 11,000,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,000,000

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the Wolves, Bucks, and Jazz (not matching Hayward and signing and trading him to Boston) agree to the deals you've laid out. These four players amount to $50 mil. Add Joel Anthony and Olynyk, and you're now at $56.3 mil.

We also need to account for Early's rookie salary ($2 mil), and, we need to account for the cap hold for the MLE, which is another $5.3 mil. That makes $63.6 mil, which takes us to the cap. (Johnson and Babb are small contracts, and good for trades later, so we add them in as well, but they're of little impact: we're already over the salary cap.)

This means that there is no extra salary beyond the MLE of $5.3 mil to offer free agents, aside from league vet deals. Fortunately, you can bring back Bayless via his Bird Rights, so $4 mil is fine, and Iverson's draft rights can be used to sign him.

But, unless one or more of them is accepting a league vet deal, Vesely, Henry, Hamilton, and Roberts cannot sign for a combined salary greater than $5.3 million as free agents.

[Sketch5]

It was reported on Felger and Mazz that Bradley wanted 7 mill 4 years. Nope, can't do it for a guy that played 64  games this year, and I think thats the high.

Hayward is a better SG than SF because he can use his size.

With that, you hopefully get lucky and snag Warren with 17th to cover your SF spot.

I like that move to. I agree if Bradley demands more than 5-6 million a year Boston needs to let him walk. Playing Hayward at SG is also a smart move. But drafting TJ Warren at 17 wouldn't be the smartest move as he is a Score-First player and with Hayward and Love in the lineup Boston would need a guy that knows he will be the 4th scoring option in the starting lineup at the 3. I would say draft Cleanthony Early who is a defensive minded player to play the 3 alongside Rondo, Hayward, Love, and Sanders. If they draft Early they obviously can't take KJ McDaniels too; they could sign Xavier Henry, SF/SG, LA Lakers for about 3 million a year, and still get the same production off the bench that McDaniels would give Boston.

I'd take Warren, just because he could be the best player available at the SF. I wouldn't worry about him needing touch's, he's a rookie, and will need a couple years to get a good feel for the game. Plus his driving to the hoop complements Gordon and Love.

Rodney Hood would be ideal. Athletic, and has that every shot offensive game. And has been second fiddle to Parker, but also has stepped up when needed. 

[TDOG71498]

@Lucky17

Yes, we let Bradley walk

2014-15 Player Salaries:

1. K. Love: 15,719,062
2. R. Rondo: 12,909,091
3. L. Sanders: 11,00,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,00,000 (FA Signing)
5. J. Bayless: 4,000,000
6. J. Anthony: 3,800,000
7. V. Faverani: 2,090,000
8. K. Olynyk: 2,075,760
9. X. Henry: 2,000,000 (FA Signing)
10. B. Roberts: 2,000,000 (FA Signing)
11. C. Early: 1,395,400 (Rookie Salary)
12. J. Hamilton: 981,084 (FA Signing; NBA minimum)
13. C. Johnson: 915,243 (un-guaranteed)
14. C. Babb: 816,482 (un-guaranteed)
15. C. Iverson: 816,482

Total Salary: 70,518,604
2014-15 NBA Cap:63,200,000
2014-15 Luxury Tax:77,000,000

Boston Celtics can have this roster with these salaries next season under the NBA rules and would not owe a penny more than the teams salary.

[Lucky17]

Boston Celtics can have this roster with these salaries next season under the NBA rules and would not owe a penny more than the teams salary.

Looks right. Would still have a little bit of the MLE left over to boot.

[TDOG71498]

Let's look at this differently.

1. K. Love: 16,000,000
2. R. Rondo: 13,000,000
3. L. Sanders: 11,000,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,000,000

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the Wolves, Bucks, and Jazz (not matching Hayward and signing and trading him to Boston) agree to the deals you've laid out. These four players amount to $50 mil. Add Joel Anthony and Olynyk, and you're now at $56.3 mil.

We also need to account for Early's rookie salary ($2 mil), and, we need to account for the cap hold for the MLE, which is another $5.3 mil. That makes $63.6 mil, which takes us to the cap. (Johnson and Babb are small contracts, and good for trades later, so we add them in as well, but they're of little impact: we're already over the salary cap.)

This means that there is no extra salary beyond the MLE of $5.3 mil to offer free agents, aside from league vet deals. Fortunately, you can bring back Bayless via his Bird Rights, so $4 mil is fine, and Iverson's draft rights can be used to sign him.

But, unless one or more of them is accepting a league vet deal, Vesely, Henry, Hamilton, and Roberts cannot sign for a combined salary greater than $5.3 million as free agents.

I understand all of this. You don't see my point. Just to show you I know what I am doing, you can look at my last post, which has exact salaries and is 100% exact. And also has projected signings in Free Agency. But I know what I'm doing.

And as for @ BigAlTheFuture if he showed me up then how come I knew what I was talking about and showed it in my last post?

[TDOG71498]

Boston Celtics can have this roster with these salaries next season under the NBA rules and would not owe a penny more than the teams salary.

Looks right. Would still have a little bit of the MLE left over to boot.

Thank You

I did know what I was talking about then right?

I did all that messed up stuff to show you what you where saying at first. And when I showed you the work of everything u where saying it made no sense. That's y I did all those calculations before.

We both know our stuff though, and it looks like we where both right in the end after we got on the same track. So I clearly owe you an apology for my actions.

I'm glad that we both got on the same track be cuz I knew that my predictions would work under the NBA rules.

[Celtics18]

@Lucky17

Yes, we let Bradley walk

2014-15 Player Salaries:

1. K. Love: 15,719,062
2. R. Rondo: 12,909,091
3. L. Sanders: 11,00,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,00,000 (FA Signing)
5. J. Bayless: 4,000,000
6. J. Anthony: 3,800,000
7. V. Faverani: 2,090,000
8. K. Olynyk: 2,075,760
9. X. Henry: 2,000,000 (FA Signing)
10. B. Roberts: 2,000,000 (FA Signing)
11. C. Early: 1,395,400 (Rookie Salary)
12. J. Hamilton: 981,084 (FA Signing; NBA minimum)
13. C. Johnson: 915,243 (un-guaranteed)
14. C. Babb: 816,482 (un-guaranteed)
15. C. Iverson: 816,482

Total Salary: 70,518,604
2014-15 NBA Cap:63,200,000
2014-15 Luxury Tax:77,000,000

Boston Celtics can have this roster with these salaries next season under the NBA rules and would not owe a penny more than the teams salary.

I think the only guy that you can't fit into your scenario is Hayward.  His signing would bring the team over the cap (unless there's a loophole that I'm unaware of).

Edit:

I see. Use the TPE on Hayward.

[BigAlTheFuture]

Let's look at this differently.

1. K. Love: 16,000,000
2. R. Rondo: 13,000,000
3. L. Sanders: 11,000,000
4. G. Hayward: 10,000,000

Let's say, for the sake of argument, that the Wolves, Bucks, and Jazz (not matching Hayward and signing and trading him to Boston) agree to the deals you've laid out. These four players amount to $50 mil. Add Joel Anthony and Olynyk, and you're now at $56.3 mil.

We also need to account for Early's rookie salary ($2 mil), and, we need to account for the cap hold for the MLE, which is another $5.3 mil. That makes $63.6 mil, which takes us to the cap. (Johnson and Babb are small contracts, and good for trades later, so we add them in as well, but they're of little impact: we're already over the salary cap.)

This means that there is no extra salary beyond the MLE of $5.3 mil to offer free agents, aside from league vet deals. Fortunately, you can bring back Bayless via his Bird Rights, so $4 mil is fine, and Iverson's draft rights can be used to sign him.

But, unless one or more of them is accepting a league vet deal, Vesely, Henry, Hamilton, and Roberts cannot sign for a combined salary greater than $5.3 million as free agents.

I understand all of this. You don't see my point. Just to show you I know what I am doing, you can look at my last post, which has exact salaries and is 100% exact. And also has projected signings in Free Agency. But I know what I'm doing.

And as for @ BigAlTheFuture if he showed me up then how come I knew what I was talking about and showed it in my last post?

Just joking, man. I enjoyed the debate. I learned a thing or two.

[TDOG71498]

@Celtics18

Yes we would use the TPE for Hayward

[TDOG71498]

@Sketch5

Comparing TJ Warren, Rodney Hood, and Cleanthony Early
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

T.J. Warren: Age- 20; HT- 6'8"; WT- 220; Wingspan- 6'10.25";  Vert- 35.5"

2013/14 stats:PPG- 24.9; FG%- 52.5; 3P%- 26.7; FT%- 69; RPG- 7.1; APG- 1.1; Stls- 1.8; Blks- 0.6
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Rodney Hood: Age- 21; HT- 6'8.5"; WT- 208; Wingspan- 6'8.5"; Vert- 36"

2013/14 stats: PPG- 16.1; FG%- 46.4; 3P%- 42.0; FT%- 80; RPG- 3.9; APG- 2.1; Stls- 0.7; Blks- 0.3
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cleanthony Early: Age- 23; HT- 6'7"; WT- 209; Wingspan- 6'10.75"; Vert- 40"

2013/14 stats: PPG- 16.3; FG%- 48.7; 3P%- 37.6; FT%- 84; RPG- 6.0; APG- 0.7; Stls- 0.8; Blks- 0.8
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Skills

Athleticism: Cleanthony Early

Size: T.J. Warren

Defense: T.J. Warren

Strength: T.J. Warren

Quickness: Cleanthony Early

Leadership: T.J. Warren

Jump Shot: Cleanthony Early

Three Point Shot: Rodney Hood

Ball Handling: T.J. Warren

Passing: T.J. Warren

Intangibles: Cleanthony Early

NBA Ready: T.J. Warren

Potential: T.J. Warren and Cleanthony Early
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Best Fit for Boston:

1.  T.J. Warren
2. Cleanthony Early
3. Rodney Hood