Overthinking it?

[D.o.s.]

Don't need Smart ....but team needs to,play smarter .  He is the last guy that the experts talk about I'd waste a top ten pic on.

If we need ed a guard , and we picking late in the first round I'd take him.

Other wise we need a center and stars to,contend.

Thank you!!  Good to see someone on this board has an understanding of what the celtics actually need.  I can't believe how many ppl buy into the hype that espn and analysts deliver about POPULAR players, ala Tebow.  I can assure everyone here that Celtics will NOT pick Smart

As opposed to the people who buy into the hype of being contrarian, right?

No, Im not a contrarian I just don't need analysts to tell me what a player brings to the table because I watch all the games myself.  From this can tell you Smart is overrated as a player primarily due to his popularity nationally.

As someone who coached at the high school and college level for 20 years, welcome. And I agree with you in total about Smart - an overrated hothead.

Personally, I laugh at the analysts and the sabremetricians. There are a couple of good metrics, but you either know the game or you have to rely on flawed mathematics to explain it to you, as I see it.

Nothing flawed about the eye test -- especially not when you're watching a game from the TV.

Nothing at all.

[nacceltic]

The Celtics are in a position to pick the best player on the board, period...If you limit yourself to just needs, that's when you start reaching...I'd rather have a position of strength to deal from (KO, Sully & Randle), then dropping down in the draft to get a guy who "could" start in the league someday.

Something else that bothers me is the thought that Marcus Smart has hit his ceiling at the age of 20...By the way, he just turned 20 in March. Smart, if he takes himself seriously and works at it, can become a better shooter. Is he going to end up being McBuckets or Korver? No...But that doesn't mean you throw him on top of the scrap heap because he has some mechanical flaws that could be fixed.  Remember when the vast majority of us thought Avery Bradley would never be a reliable shooter?  Not saying he's Ray Allen, but he has no doubt improved, mostly because he was so [dang] young when he came into the league. Players grow, they mature.

Another thing, let's not act like the players brought up like Stauskas & McBuckets don't have their flaws...Does Doug have a position he can defend? Does Stauskas want to play defense and can he handle the ball enough to be reliable?  Every player in this draft has some kind of weakness...You take players on the belief that they will IMPROVE on those weaknesses...

Smart is just as likely to improve on his shooting as Andrew Wiggins is likely to improve on his handle, etc...

[RIHoopz14]

To comment on the original post,

I agree with your assessment on the Cs needing a go to scorer and a defensive big. Trading up is not going to be an option so Parker, Embiid and Wiggins are all not options. Your mention of stauscas and McDermott is valid and I could see DA trading down a few pick for Saric or mcdermott.

Is there any accurate insight floating out there on what teams are asking in return for a top 3 pick?

[D.o.s.]

To comment on the original post,

I agree with your assessment on the Cs needing a go to scorer and a defensive big. Trading up is not going to be an option so Parker, Embiid and Wiggins are all not options. Your mention of stauscas and McDermott is valid and I could see DA trading down a few pick for Saric or mcdermott.

Is there any accurate insight floating out there on what teams are asking in return for a top 3 pick?

Would you trust the insight if it came from an expert?

[Celtics18]

The much anticipated Marcus Smart workout video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JVcdEjkCNs

[RIHoopz14]

To comment on the original post,

I agree with your assessment on the Cs needing a go to scorer and a defensive big. Trading up is not going to be an option so Parker, Embiid and Wiggins are all not options. Your mention of stauscas and McDermott is valid and I could see DA trading down a few pick for Saric or mcdermott.

Is there any accurate insight floating out there on what teams are asking in return for a top 3 pick?

Would you trust the insight if it came from an expert?

Haha touche, in this case they're the only ones w access to inside sources so I would relatively trust what's being reported

[D.o.s.]

You've just hit on something that's really important regarding trade rumors and the like -- these reporters don't make things up, usually. Sure, on a slow day, you can get away with poking away at the Trade Machine and saying something like "Could The Kings Trade For A'Mare Stoudimire?" but the majority of the time these are sourced rumors. That's why certain reporters are much more reliable when it comes to specific organizations -- they clearly have better sources in some front offices than others.

[Evantime34]

The much anticipated Marcus Smart workout video:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3JVcdEjkCNs

His shot mechanics appear to have slightly changed but they are still a work in progress. He still brings the ball down and then up to his waist for every shot. He also sometimes pauses with ball above his head in the shooting motion which could create another hitch when his legs get tired. They need to make his release more compact but I guess it's too much to hope for that he fixes it this quickly.

[mmmmm]

You've just hit on something that's really important regarding trade rumors and the like -- these reporters don't make things up, usually. Sure, on a slow day, you can get away with poking away at the Trade Machine and saying something like "Could The Kings Trade For A'Mare Stoudimire?" but the majority of the time these are sourced rumors. That's why certain reporters are much more reliable when it comes to specific organizations -- they clearly have better sources in some front offices than others.

You lost me at the bolded part.

If the majority of trade rumors were actually from real sources, then players would be playing with jet lag with the way they were being shuttled constantly from team to team.

I think it is probably fair to say that some trade rumors are from sources but that a significant portion are made up out of fairy dust just to have something to talk about.   In my opinion it is reasonable to assume that a rumor is pure vacuum until there is credible evidence to support it, however slightly.  That's just my opinion, of course.    Others are free to give as much credibility to rumors as they want.

[RIHoopz14]

The funniest part about this thread is Smart is the last person I wanted to talk about.  Everyone seems to think trading up is out of the picture, but why? I haven't heard any legit sources say what it will take to get a top 3 pick. I'd gladly trade 2 of our first rounders next year and another future pick to get a top 3 this year and keep #6.  This draft has more talent than the next 2 drafts by far

[D.o.s.]

You've just hit on something that's really important regarding trade rumors and the like -- these reporters don't make things up, usually. Sure, on a slow day, you can get away with poking away at the Trade Machine and saying something like "Could The Kings Trade For A'Mare Stoudimire?" but the majority of the time these are sourced rumors. That's why certain reporters are much more reliable when it comes to specific organizations -- they clearly have better sources in some front offices than others.

You lost me at the bolded part.

If the majority of trade rumors were actually from real sources, then players would be playing with jet lag with the way they were being shuttled constantly from team to team.

I think it is probably fair to say that some trade rumors are from sources but that a significant portion are made up out of fairy dust just to have something to talk about.   In my opinion it is reasonable to assume that a rumor is pure vacuum until there is credible evidence to support it, however slightly.  That's just my opinion, of course.    Others are free to give as much credibility to rumors as they want.

Just because they're coming from real sources doesn't mean they're going to materialize. 

[Donoghus]

The funniest part about this thread is Smart is the last person I wanted to talk about.  Everyone seems to think trading up is out of the picture, but why? I haven't heard any legit sources say what it will take to get a top 3 pick. I'd gladly trade 2 of our first rounders next year and another future pick to get a top 3 this year and keep #6. This draft has more talent than the next 2 drafts by far

Which is why I don't see any of the top 3 teams trading down.

The #6 & #17 this year plus the unknown of either next year's first rounders (certainly no guarantee of top 3) won't entice a top 3 team this year to trade down.  Especially given the talent in the top 3 this year.

[mmmmm]

You've just hit on something that's really important regarding trade rumors and the like -- these reporters don't make things up, usually. Sure, on a slow day, you can get away with poking away at the Trade Machine and saying something like "Could The Kings Trade For A'Mare Stoudimire?" but the majority of the time these are sourced rumors. That's why certain reporters are much more reliable when it comes to specific organizations -- they clearly have better sources in some front offices than others.

You lost me at the bolded part.

If the majority of trade rumors were actually from real sources, then players would be playing with jet lag with the way they were being shuttled constantly from team to team.

I think it is probably fair to say that some trade rumors are from sources but that a significant portion are made up out of fairy dust just to have something to talk about.   In my opinion it is reasonable to assume that a rumor is pure vacuum until there is credible evidence to support it, however slightly.  That's just my opinion, of course.    Others are free to give as much credibility to rumors as they want.

Just because they're coming from real sources doesn't mean they're going to materialize. 

And just because they are regurgitated by 'reporters' such that they propagate unquestioned around the internet and media doesn't mean they came from "real sources".

[kozlodoev]

The funniest part about this thread is Smart is the last person I wanted to talk about.  Everyone seems to think trading up is out of the picture, but why? I haven't heard any legit sources say what it will take to get a top 3 pick. I'd gladly trade 2 of our first rounders next year and another future pick to get a top 3 this year and keep #6. This draft has more talent than the next 2 drafts by far

Which is why I don't see any of the top 3 teams trading down.

The #6 & #17 this year plus the unknown of either next year's first rounders (certainly no guarantee of top 3) won't entice a top 3 team this year to trade down.  Especially given the talent in the top 3 this year.

Rondo and #6 may get you a top 3 pick. Then again... it may not.

[slamtheking]

First post here guys.  I feel that too many people are buying into "experts" mock drafts and assuming the Celtics are just gonna take one of the players ranked in the 4-9 range with their #6 pick.  I think that is unlikely to happen because, simply, none of those players fit our needs.  Yes, many of them are intriguing.  But if you watch alot of college basketball and Celtics, you know that our area of strength/depth is PF and our pick falls right in the midst of many talented PFs. 

The fact is, we need an athletic shot-blocking center and a go-to shooter/scorer who is preferably a 2/3 wing.   Jeff Green was our top scorer at 16.9 PPG which ranks #40 overall, and most teams have at least 1 or 2 guys averaging 20+ PPG.   Our top scorer doesn't even have a scoring mentality and his game is extremely predictable.  We also need a shot-blocking presence in the paint as Sully had to play out of position alot and KO just isn't athletic enough to compete with the best NBA centers.   Ainge also promised Sully that he'd get a center for next years team.  Right now I'm sure Ainge is gauging what each top 3 team is looking for in return for their pick, and also knows that next year's draft picks are more expendable because the talent level is nowhere near that in this years draft.  We have enough assets to get what we want, its just finding where the best value is.

Here's the 5 players i think we have the best chance of picking (yes we will try to trade up):

1)  Embiid -  This fit is just too perfect.  Everyone has seen the way Brad Stevens likes to run offense right?  He stretches the floor with bigs, creates mismatches, and takes advantage.  Any open shot he encourages you to take.   Embiid has a PURE stroke from distance and his athleticism and intangibles would fit into our system/team perfectly.  He is a shotblocker in the paint and makes anyone driving to the hoop think twice about it.  Youve seen the difference with Serge Ibaka in/out of OKC's lineup.  You simply can't find kids like this often.

2)  Wiggins - He fits the bill of an athletic 2/3 wing who can score (improving) and play solid D with length.   We need this type wing player because it allows us to play a small (rondo, bradley, wiggins, green, sully) lineup and a bigger lineup (rondo wiggins, green, sully, olynyk) while balancing offense/defense. 

3)  Parker -  He will provide instant scoring and has a solid IQ and polished game, I could definitely see him being a Celtic.  Although, it would bring up some interesting positional roster scenarios (i.e. share time w Green?)

4)  McDermott - Yup, I said it.  This kid is underrated simply because he's white and looks soft.  Think Tom Brady.   We're talking about a SHARP SHOOTER who has shot over 50% FG all 4 years and over 40% 3PT all 4 years.   His career average is 45.8% from 3PT,  that is INSANE.  He's one of the best scorers EVER in college basketball and his tremendous bball IQ, instincts, and knowing his role will allow him to succeed in the NBA; especially in a Brad Stevens offense.   We need scoring and he has shown CONSISTENTLY that he can provide.   How he fits into our current roster is a great question, but I don't think Ainge will be scared to pull the trigger on him if we remain at #6.  You've seen it in the our last 2 drafts with KO and Sully.... basketball skill out-trumps athletic ability every time.

5)  Stauskas - Here's another scorer who's confident and also a deadly shooter.  Hit fits our roster better than McDermott and would provide more flexibility at the guard position.  He excels in pick & roll offense and can also handle point duties better than bradley.  Has a deadly crossover and quick release on his shot.   I don't see us taking him as early as 6, but if we can't get any of the players above I woudln't be surprised if we moved down a couple of picks with him being our target.   I like the idea of getting more picks in this draft as there are some very talented players all the way throughout the 2nd round.


The one person I hope we don't take?  MARCUS SMART.   He's one of the most overrated players i've ever seen.   He's not an NBA caliber shooter and doesn't even have a true strength.  He's your typical combo guard who can never find a starting role on a team because his inability to shoot or dominate any aspect of the game.   It boggles my mind knowing some fans think we need another guard who cant shoot.  All I hear about Smart is "he brings toughness and has some strength for a guard at 6'3".   Listen, that doesn't mean **** in the NBA.    I watch more college basketball than you probably think is possible and I legitimately would take some players who will go undrafted (i.e. Billy Baron) over Smart.

How's that for a first post 

first off, welcome on your first post.

second, I think your premise that we can trade into the top 3 is a fallacy.  none of the teams with a top 3 pick are trading it with the possible exception of Cleveland for a top player in the league (Melo or Love as examples) to put with Kyrie.  Even then I don't see Cleveland not taking the opportunity to add either Wiggins or Embiid to Kyrie (I'm betting on Wiggins personally). 

as for your top 5 players, the first 3 are obvious.  for the next 2, in terms of pure talent, I wouldn't put either Mcdermott or Stauskas in that range.  good shooters certainly but not players I would take at #6.  for that matter, they'd be lucky if either was taken 10th. 

Regarding Smart, if all that happens this offseason is we take our scheduled picks and keep them, I'd be ok with Smart.  not thrilled, but ok.  kid has the fire to compete and I would anticipate some improvement in his shot and passing abilities.  If we do pick him though, I would anticipate it's on behalf of another team where Danny has a deal to slide down in bit in the draft to pick up additional assets.  Stauskas would be a fine pick up in that situation.  Mcdermott, eh.  I see him as Kyle Korver 2.0 --> a nice player to have on your bench if you're a contender, not a real building block for a young team though.