Author Topic: 6th overall picks 1993-2013  (Read 6311 times)

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6th overall picks 1993-2013
« on: May 27, 2014, 08:54:55 AM »

Offline kne

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I was planning on starting this feel-good topic on all the stars and studs that have been selected sixth overall in past NBA drafts. I must say the list doesn't really blow me away, since I think the jury is still out on Lillard.

Thoughts?

Per basketball-reference.com:

Quote
Sixth overall selections, year-by-year:   

2013   Nerlens Noel
2012   Damian Lillard
2011   Jan Vesely
2010   Ekpe Udoh
2009   Jonny Flynn
2008   Danilo Gallinari
2007   Yi Jianlian (...)
2006   Brandon Roy
2005   Martell Webster
2004   Josh Childress
2003   Chris Kaman
2002   Dajuan Wagner
2001   Shane Battier
2000   DerMarr Johnson
1999   Wally Szczerbiak
1998   Robert Traylor
1997   Ron Mercer (...)
1996   Antoine Walker
1995   Bryant Reeves
1994   Sharone Wright
1993   Calbert Cheaney

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #1 on: May 27, 2014, 09:31:14 AM »

Offline bdm860

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If you want to take a historical look, I wouldn't focus only on who was picked exactly at #6, but instead look at who was picked in that range, say maybe 6-10, as a few different players could have been drafted at #6 in any year based on the team drafting.

Sure Robert Traylor was drafted at #6 in '98, but let's hope the C's would have drafted Dirk (#9) or Pierce (#10) if they had the #6 pick that year.

Plenty of All-Star caliber players in the 6-10 range:

2012: Andre Drummond, #9
2010: Paul George, #10
2010: Gordon Hayward, #9
2010: Greg Monroe, #7
2009: Demar DeRozan, #9
2009: Steph Curry, #7
2008: Brook Lopez, #10
2007: Joakim Noah, #9
2006: Rudy Gay, #8
2005: Andrew Bynum, #10
2004: Andre Iguadala, #9
2004: Luol Deng, #7
2002: Caron Butler, #10
2002: Amare Stoudemire, #9
2001: Joe Johnson, #10
1999: Shawn Marion, #9
1999: Richard Hamilton, #7
1998: Paul Pierce, #10
1998: Dirk Nowitzki, #9
1997: Tracy McGrady, #9
1995: Damon Stoudamire, #7
1994: Eddie Jones, #10
1993: Vin Baker, #8
« Last Edit: May 27, 2014, 10:02:41 AM by bdm860 »

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Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #2 on: May 27, 2014, 09:55:19 AM »

Offline Kane3387

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If you want to take a historical look, I wouldn't focus only on who was picked exactly at #6, but instead look at who was picked in that range, say maybe 6-10, as a few different players could have been drafted at #6 in any year based on the team drafting.

Sure Robert Traylor was drafted at #6 in '98, but let's hop the C's would have drafted Dirk (#9) or Pierce (#10) if they had the #6 pick that year.

Plenty of All-Star caliber players in the 6-10 range:

2012: Andre Drummond, #9
2010: Paul George, #10
2010: Gordon Hayward, #9
2010: Greg Monroe, #7
2009: Demar DeRozan, #9
2009: Steph Curry, #7
2008: Brook Lopez, #10
2007: Joakim Noah, #9
2006: Rudy Gay, #8
2005: Andrew Bynum, #10
2004: Andre Iguadala, #9
2004: Luol Deng, #7
2002: Caron Butler, #10
2002: Amare Stoudemire, #9
2001: Joe Johnson, #10
1999: Shawn Marion, #9
1999: Richard Hamilton, #7
1998: Paul Pierce, #10
1998: Dirk Nowitzki, #9
1997: Tracy McGrady, #9
1995: Damon Stoudamire, #7
1994: Eddie Jones, #10
1993: Vin Baker, #8

Great post.

TP


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Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #3 on: May 27, 2014, 10:17:04 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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The bad news that bdm860's post implies is that you need to have around a 5 pick range to get a "hit". So while we can expect a rotation player nearly certainly out of the 6th picks. It probably has a 20%-25% chance of being a whole lot better than that.

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #4 on: May 27, 2014, 10:20:36 AM »

Offline kne

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If you want to take a historical look, I wouldn't focus only on who was picked exactly at #6, but instead look at who was picked in that range, say maybe 6-10, as a few different players could have been drafted at #6 in any year based on the team drafting.

Sure Robert Traylor was drafted at #6 in '98, but let's hope the C's would have drafted Dirk (#9) or Pierce (#10) if they had the #6 pick that year.

Plenty of All-Star caliber players in the 6-10 range:

(...)

Hey, I'm not saying there was never an all-star available at the sixth pick. PP was there at 10, David West was an 18th pick, Rondo was selected 21st and the Spurs got Parker and Ginobili at 28 and 57 resp. I was just curious about the sixth pick in past drafts and wanted to share my disappointment with the list.

 

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #5 on: May 27, 2014, 10:22:10 AM »

Offline manl_lui

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If you want to take a historical look, I wouldn't focus only on who was picked exactly at #6, but instead look at who was picked in that range, say maybe 6-10, as a few different players could have been drafted at #6 in any year based on the team drafting.

Sure Robert Traylor was drafted at #6 in '98, but let's hop the C's would have drafted Dirk (#9) or Pierce (#10) if they had the #6 pick that year.

Plenty of All-Star caliber players in the 6-10 range:

2012: Andre Drummond, #9
2010: Paul George, #10
2010: Gordon Hayward, #9
2010: Greg Monroe, #7
2009: Demar DeRozan, #9
2009: Steph Curry, #7
2008: Brook Lopez, #10
2007: Joakim Noah, #9
2006: Rudy Gay, #8
2005: Andrew Bynum, #10
2004: Andre Iguadala, #9
2004: Luol Deng, #7
2002: Caron Butler, #10
2002: Amare Stoudemire, #9
2001: Joe Johnson, #10
1999: Shawn Marion, #9
1999: Richard Hamilton, #7
1998: Paul Pierce, #10
1998: Dirk Nowitzki, #9
1997: Tracy McGrady, #9
1995: Damon Stoudamire, #7
1994: Eddie Jones, #10
1993: Vin Baker, #8

Great post.

TP

I want to note that, had Amare been healthy, he's definitely a top 5 PF in the league, even better than Chris Bosh

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #6 on: May 27, 2014, 10:28:11 AM »

Offline Moranis

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The bad news that bdm860's post implies is that you need to have around a 5 pick range to get a "hit". So while we can expect a rotation player nearly certainly out of the 6th picks. It probably has a 20%-25% chance of being a whole lot better than that.
yep and if you don't have one of the special room players (ala Duncan or Shaq) you need multiple top 5 picks to really even contend for a title and many of the title winners even with the special room players also had at least 1 teammate that was a top 5 pick in the rotation (see Jordan/Pippen, James/Wade/Bosh, Dirk had Kidd and Chandler, etc.).   Indiana of the last two years is one of the glaring exceptions, but those teams are incredibly rare and even Indiana has thus far failed to reach the NBA Finals.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

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Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #7 on: May 27, 2014, 10:29:42 AM »

Offline Moranis

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If you want to take a historical look, I wouldn't focus only on who was picked exactly at #6, but instead look at who was picked in that range, say maybe 6-10, as a few different players could have been drafted at #6 in any year based on the team drafting.

Sure Robert Traylor was drafted at #6 in '98, but let's hope the C's would have drafted Dirk (#9) or Pierce (#10) if they had the #6 pick that year.

Plenty of All-Star caliber players in the 6-10 range:

(...)

Hey, I'm not saying there was never an all-star available at the sixth pick. PP was there at 10, David West was an 18th pick, Rondo was selected 21st and the Spurs got Parker and Ginobili at 28 and 57 resp. I was just curious about the sixth pick in past drafts and wanted to share my disappointment with the list.
True, but those guys weren't realistic options at #6, anyone selected 6-10 was a realistic option at 6.  What both of the lists really show is that there are 1 or 2 players that get drafted in the 6-10 range that any team would be happy with, you just have to select the correct player, which isn't easy.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
Wings - Dantley, Bowen, J. Jackson
Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #8 on: May 27, 2014, 10:32:10 AM »

Offline nacceltic

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I wish it was this easy to figure out what "kind of player" we're going to get, if the Celtics keep the 6th pick...However, a lot of variables go into each draft, making them mostly unique.

First, you have to think about each specific draft's depth...For example, 2003 was top heavy, much like this one is projected to be. At #6, Chris Kaman is a good pick who was stuck on some pretty bad teams and eventually dealt with injury issues. His best season, he was good for 18 & 9. I'd take that.

Secondly, the draft depends a lot on who is drafting above you and who is the one making that #6 pick...As mentioned by bdm860, plenty of All-Star caliber players have been drafted beyond the #6 pick.  It comes down to the GM who can most accurately predict future performance.

Finally, potential is just that, potential.  There are some guys drafted with all the potential in the world and were/are derailed for whatever reason - personal choice, injury, being stuck on a bad team with bad leadership, etc.

It's cliche, but it's true....As everyone says about pretty much every pro sports draft: The draft is an inexact science.

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #9 on: May 27, 2014, 10:42:25 AM »

Offline pokeKingCurtis

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I wish it was this easy to figure out what "kind of player" we're going to get, if the Celtics keep the 6th pick...However, a lot of variables go into each draft, making them mostly unique.

First, you have to think about each specific draft's depth...For example, 2003 was top heavy, much like this one is projected to be. At #6, Chris Kaman is a good pick who was stuck on some pretty bad teams and eventually dealt with injury issues. His best season, he was good for 18 & 9. I'd take that.

Secondly, the draft depends a lot on who is drafting above you and who is the one making that #6 pick...As mentioned by bdm860, plenty of All-Star caliber players have been drafted beyond the #6 pick.  It comes down to the GM who can most accurately predict future performance.

Finally, potential is just that, potential.  There are some guys drafted with all the potential in the world and were/are derailed for whatever reason - personal choice, injury, being stuck on a bad team with bad leadership, etc.

It's cliche, but it's true....As everyone says about pretty much every pro sports draft: The draft is an inexact science.

There's also the issue of opportunities.

DeMarcus Cousins and Beasley are guys, I'd reckon, would have been so much more with more guidance. Better tuitelage.

On the flip side, some guys just need a chance. We never gave Billups a chance to develop, for example. And there is probably a bunch of players right now who would break out given playing time.

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #10 on: May 27, 2014, 10:50:32 AM »

Offline bdm860

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The bad news that bdm860's post implies is that you need to have around a 5 pick range to get a "hit". So while we can expect a rotation player nearly certainly out of the 6th picks. It probably has a 20%-25% chance of being a whole lot better than that.

Oh without a doubt, drafting ain't easy, but there's definitely hope at #6.

Oddly, when I was looking at the lists, the '99 draft really stood out to me.  I don't think anybody has ever really thought of that as one of the stronger drafts, but 1-10 only had one flop (Jonathan Bender), and every 6-10 pick I personally would have been happy with.  All together there were 6 All-Stars in the top 10, and the non-All Stars are Lamar Odom  and Jason Terry (both SMOY on championship teams) and Andre Miller.  Also the one flop (Bender) was flipped for an All-Star (Antonio Davis) before the season started.

I'd say every team drafting in the top 10 that year had a hit.  Now that's rare.  (Well except maybe Vancouver who was pretty much forced to trade Francis).

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Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #11 on: June 02, 2014, 12:46:01 PM »

Offline kne

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Sorry to bump this thread but another thread (http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=71278.msg1672926#new) made me realize, as bdm860 said, that there is "definitely hope at #6":

Quote
1978 NBA Draft

6. Larry Bird


:)

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #12 on: June 02, 2014, 01:40:08 PM »

Offline manl_lui

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Sorry to bump this thread but another thread (http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=71278.msg1672926#new) made me realize, as bdm860 said, that there is "definitely hope at #6":

Quote
1978 NBA Draft

6. Larry Bird


:)

nice TP, looking at the original list, I was like...meh no superstars, [dang] no stars at 6...then span to 78 and see Larry Bird...BOOM, instant hope

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #13 on: June 02, 2014, 01:43:01 PM »

Offline Moranis

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Sorry to bump this thread but another thread (http://forums.celticsblog.com/index.php?topic=71278.msg1672926#new) made me realize, as bdm860 said, that there is "definitely hope at #6":

Quote
1978 NBA Draft

6. Larry Bird


:)

nice TP, looking at the original list, I was like...meh no superstars, [dang] no stars at 6...then span to 78 and see Larry Bird...BOOM, instant hope
yeah, but that is a bit of fluke in that Boston drafted him the year before he entered the league.  Had he actually been in the draft in 78 and coming out of school he doesn't go #6.
2023 Historical Draft - Brooklyn Nets - 9th pick

Bigs - Pau, Amar'e, Issel, McGinnis, Roundfield
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Guards - Cheeks, Petrovic, Buse, Rip

Re: 6th overall picks 1993-2013
« Reply #14 on: June 02, 2014, 02:51:11 PM »

Offline tstorey_97

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Indiana State - 3 seasons - 30.3 ppg - .533 fg% - .822 ft% - 13.3 rpg - 4.6 apg -
Indiana State with Bird on the floor? 81-13

Ridiculous...

He was 23 years of age upon graduation.
Aaron Gordon? 19 years old .42 ft%
Auerbach didn't have to "project" anything with Bird, Ainge is throwing darts at 19 year olds.