This year's 4-6 picks: 1-3 in a "normal" year?

[Nef-Oracle]

Yeah sure! Guys like Exum, Aaron Gordon, Saric & McDermott could have been #1 overall. Randle wouldn't. Personally i think that it all depend of the team. We've seen many team picking the wrong player with #1 overall. Therefore it's hard to predict how good a player will be. We all know Kwame Brown's storie...

[CoachBo]

You've got to be kidding me.

None of those guys is a #1. Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

[CFAN38]

I would tend to agree any of the top 7 (embiid, parkers, wiggins, exum, randle, smart, vonleh) could have been the 1st pick in last years draft. In a normal draft the later 4 are solid #3 picks.

[indeedproceed]

Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

THis is a joke, right?

[Fred Roberts]

I read this bit too and think it makes some sense. This draft is deeper but I'm not sure you have a typical #1 draft pick in the next best group of 3 in this draft (i.e. picks 4-6).

Smart might have been a #3 pick last year, but certainly not #1 even in a super weak draft. Vonleh is super raw  .. . and hasn't dominated enough to merit #1 pick status in an average draft. Exum . ..maybe #2 draft pick potential? We just haven't seen enough of him and guys like Vonleh haven't developed far enough. I agree that guys like Aaron Gordon would be top 5 in most drafts, but he has liabilities with his offensive issues as well.

If we stick with the pick, I could see Smart, Gordon or Vonleh being our guy .  .. and I could easily get excited about any one of them.

[quidinqui33]

If Smart came out last year, he likely would have gone Top 3.  Most mocks had him Top 2 before he pulled his name out.

These are the only two I could still find out there, but most were about the same. 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9146975/2013-nba-draft-chad-ford-debuts-first-mock-draft/refresh/true

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2013/04/05/kotoch-2013-nba-mock-draft-1-0/

[indeedproceed]

If Smart came out last year, he likely would have gone Top 3.  Most mocks had him Top 2 before he pulled his name out.

These are the only two I could still find out there, but most were about the same. 

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2013/story/_/id/9146975/2013-nba-draft-chad-ford-debuts-first-mock-draft/refresh/true

http://www.sheridanhoops.com/2013/04/05/kotoch-2013-nba-mock-draft-1-0/

Yeah, but Smart going #2 was largely contingent on Orlando's preference. Washington and Cleveland both had/have point guards, as did Phoenix.

Maybe the Bobcats take him, but surely the Pelicans. Or maybe he goes to 3 or 4 because he's that good, but I don't think he would've merited a top-2 pick on a team that didn't have a glaring need like Orlando.

[Quetzalcoatl]

I know I have been playing too much FIFA lately because this title made me think 4-6-1-3?  Does he mean 4-3-1-2?

[nickagneta]

The top 3 picks in a normal year, you have a #1 pick that should become at least an all-star, a complete bust and a player that turns out productive. Take a look. That's pretty much a normal year for a draft.

1. I don't see that Saric, Randle, Exum, Vonleh or Smart ever had #1 pick potential.

2. Numbers suggest that at least one, maybe two of Saric, Randle, Exum, Vonleh and Smart will be complete bust. I know that's probably not a popular thing to say during this, the media hype leading up to the draft, but its true.

3. The rest are most likely productive players that might someday make an All-Star game, maybe.

Taking all that into consideration I would have to say that, no, this year's 4-6 isn't a 1-3 in a normal year. If anything 2003 had a year where 4-6 were like a normal 1-3, but I don't see this draft being anywhere close to that draft.

[Quetzalcoatl]

2. Numbers suggest that at least one, maybe two of Saric, Randle, Exum, Vonleh and Smart will be complete bust. I know that's probably not a popular thing to say during this, the media hype leading up to the draft, but its true.

One of the things about players "busting" that I don't think gets a lot of press is that the team that a player goes to really factors into that.  At the very least, I think we have the organizational structure in place to minimize the risk of an outright bust at this point.  If Kelly Olynyk went to the Clippers (read: under Doc) or to Milwuakee this year, do you think he'd still be as good as he is?  We have such a dearth of talent on this team right now that anybody we draft except maybe Randle will get the right amount of minutes and they will have a good support staff around them.  I like that crop of players for the most part and they're as good a gamble in the 6th pick range as we're going to see.

[D.o.s.]

Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

THis is a joke, right?

CoachBo wouldn't have taken Tony Parker at 28, either.

[nickagneta]

Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

THis is a joke, right?

I don't think its too far off. I've watched some vid and a game in which he played in the Adriatic League. Color me extremely unimpressed. Given the track record of Euros lacking dominant center size or overall athleticism, I gotta believe Saric is experiencing another common thing that happens to Euro players this time of the year, a really dumb jump up the mock draft boards based mostly on misinformation or a lack of information.

As far as I am concerned anyone taking Saric in the lottery is doing a major disservice to their team. Players like him tend to bust out or become solid bench role players.

[nickagneta]

2. Numbers suggest that at least one, maybe two of Saric, Randle, Exum, Vonleh and Smart will be complete bust. I know that's probably not a popular thing to say during this, the media hype leading up to the draft, but its true.

One of the things about players "busting" that I don't think gets a lot of press is that the team that a player goes to really factors into that.  At the very least, I think we have the organizational structure in place to minimize the risk of an outright bust at this point. If Kelly Olynyk went to the Clippers (read: under Doc) or to Milwuakee this year, do you think he'd still be as good as he is?  We have such a dearth of talent on this team right now that anybody we draft except maybe Randle will get the right amount of minutes and they will have a good support staff around them.  I like that crop of players for the most part and they're as good a gamble in the 6th pick range as we're going to see.

You are asking the wrong guy this question. I don't think Olynyk is that good.

[Celtics18]

Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

THis is a joke, right?

I don't think its too far off. I've watched some vid and a game in which he played in the Adriatic League. Color me extremely unimpressed. Given the track record of Euros lacking dominant center size or overall athleticism, I gotta believe Saric is experiencing another common thing that happens to Euro players this time of the year, a really dumb jump up the mock draft boards based mostly on misinformation or a lack of information.

As far as I am concerned anyone taking Saric in the lottery is doing a major disservice to their team. Players like him tend to bust out or become solid bench role players.

You think the folks at DraftExpress and other draft sites are "misinformed" or "ill-informed" on Saric?  You don't think they've seen the same youtube videos as the rest of us?

[nickagneta]

Saric isn't even a legitimate first-round pick.

THis is a joke, right?

I don't think its too far off. I've watched some vid and a game in which he played in the Adriatic League. Color me extremely unimpressed. Given the track record of Euros lacking dominant center size or overall athleticism, I gotta believe Saric is experiencing another common thing that happens to Euro players this time of the year, a really dumb jump up the mock draft boards based mostly on misinformation or a lack of information.

As far as I am concerned anyone taking Saric in the lottery is doing a major disservice to their team. Players like him tend to bust out or become solid bench role players.

You think the folks at DraftExpress and other draft sites are "misinformed" or "ill-informed" on Saric?  You don't think they've seen the same youtube videos as the rest of us?

Sure. Is DX always right? Heck are NBA GMs?