This year's 4-6 picks: 1-3 in a "normal" year?

[Boris Badenov]

I read something off-hand the other day saying that Danny shouldn't be too disappointed with #6, because the 4-6 picks this year are more like 1-3 picks in a normal year (whatever that means).

So, let's take Smart, Gordon, Randle and Vonleh and maybe Saric. Where do you think they would have been drafted in previous years? Would they have been top 3? Would any have gone #1?

Here are some recent top 5s for comparison:

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

Thoughts?

[BigAlTheFuture]

Before the season, they were saying how Randle would have been first overall in a non-Wiggins draft. It was also reported how Orlando would have picked Smart 2nd overall if he had stayed in the draft last year. Vonleh has 1st overall pick potential and so does Saric

[indeedproceed]

I think that Randle and Exum are traditional top-3 picks, if the scouting on Exum is to be believed. Gordon is probably a 5-ish guy normally. I don't think any of them are guys people would feel good about taking #1 overall on the level Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, John Wall and Blake Griffin were. Double for Wall, Davis, and Griffin. Anthony Bennett obviously is a trainwreck of a #1.

[knuckleballer]

I think that Randle and Exum are traditional top-3 picks, if the scouting on Exum is to be believed. Gordon is probably a 5-ish guy normally. I don't think any of them are guys people would feel good about taking #1 overall on the level Kyrie Irving, Anthony Davis, John Wall and Blake Griffin were. Double for Wall, Davis, and Griffin. Anthony Bennett obviously is a trainwreck of a #1.

I agree that Wall, Irving, and especially Griffin and Davis would have been drafted before any of these guys.  But I think Smart, Randle, Vonleh, and Gordon would have been in play at #2 in 2009 - 2012 and for #1 last year.

[Kane3387]

All would've been number one in 2013.

None in 2012. Davis is the best prospect since definitely durant and oden. Honestly maybe even Howard or Lebron.

Exum might've gone over kyrie. Kyrie's tape was limited.

None go over wall.

None likely go over griffin.

[CoachBo]

Maybe Randle.

No one else.

[footey]

1-3 in a bad year (like last season). Not in a normal year, if any such thing exists.

[hpantazo]

I read something off-hand the other day saying that Danny shouldn't be too disappointed with #6, because the 4-6 picks this year are more like 1-3 picks in a normal year (whatever that means).

So, let's take Smart, Gordon, Randle and Vonleh and maybe Saric. Where do you think they would have been drafted in previous years? Would they have been top 3? Would any have gone #1?

Here are some recent top 5s for comparison:

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

Thoughts?

then fun part about this is let's look at those lists you posted and see how many busts are in the top 5 every year. There will be a few this year as well, it's virtually impossible for it not to happen.

Green=good pick
Red= bust
orange=still in question

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

[hpantazo]

Randle, Exum and Smart I can see as top 3 picks in a "normal" year

[Endless Paradise]

Zeller's not exactly a bust.  Nor is Kanter.

[hpantazo]

Zeller's not exactly a bust.

would you be happy if the player we draft at #6 this year is equivalent to Zeller? I wouldn't be.

[indeedproceed]

I read something off-hand the other day saying that Danny shouldn't be too disappointed with #6, because the 4-6 picks this year are more like 1-3 picks in a normal year (whatever that means).

So, let's take Smart, Gordon, Randle and Vonleh and maybe Saric. Where do you think they would have been drafted in previous years? Would they have been top 3? Would any have gone #1?

Here are some recent top 5s for comparison:

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

Thoughts?

then fun part about this is let's look at those lists you posted and see how many busts are in the top 5 every year. There will be a few this year as well, it's virtually impossible for it not to happen.

Green=good pick
Red= bust
orange=still in question

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

I don't think you should call either Len or Zeller busts, nor Kanter or MKG. Porter as well is a guy that I'd be reluctant to write off just yet. Favors and Valanciunas as well I think ought to be green, not red, both players look to be productive pieces right in schedule in terms of their development.

[Endless Paradise]

Zeller's not exactly a bust.

would you be happy if the player we draft at #6 this year is equivalent to Zeller? I wouldn't be.

He played relatively big minutes on a playoff team and made the All-Rookie Second Team - only two fellow Top 10 picks qualified for either the First or Second Team.  A bit early to call him a bust.  He's a work in progress.  If you think Thompson's a work-in-progress, I don't see how you can say Zeller (and Kanter for that matter) isn't.  At the same draft position, Zeller's numbers aren't terribly far off what Thompson was producing his first year in more minutes.

[hpantazo]

I read something off-hand the other day saying that Danny shouldn't be too disappointed with #6, because the 4-6 picks this year are more like 1-3 picks in a normal year (whatever that means).

So, let's take Smart, Gordon, Randle and Vonleh and maybe Saric. Where do you think they would have been drafted in previous years? Would they have been top 3? Would any have gone #1?

Here are some recent top 5s for comparison:

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

Thoughts?

then fun part about this is let's look at those lists you posted and see how many busts are in the top 5 every year. There will be a few this year as well, it's virtually impossible for it not to happen.

Green=good pick
Red= bust
orange=still in question

2013: Bennett, Oladipo, Porter, Zeller, Len
2012: A. Davis, MKG, Beal, Waiters, TRob
2011: Kyrie, D. Williams, Kanter, T. Thompson, Valanciunas
2010: Wall, E. Turner, Favors, W. Johnson, Cousins
2009: B. Griffin, Thabeet, Harden, Tyreke, Rubio

I don't think you should call either Len or Zeller busts, nor Kanter or MKG. Porter as well is a guy that I'd be reluctant to write off just yet. Favors and Valanciunas as well I think ought to be green, not red, both players look to be productive pieces right in schedule in terms of their development.

Well, by "bust" I was going by the general consensus that people on here want a player that will be at least a borderline all-star at 6, and the guys in red imo have already proven that they will never be a borderline all-star. Sure, some, like Bennett, may be out of the league soon, and others like Favors are productive players, but all-stars they will not be.

I think we can get players of equivalent productivity at #17 for example.

[lon3lytoaster]

Tell you what, no matter who we pick they'd have gone #1 any other year, according to Ainge. He'll have them "much higher" on his board and we'll all get excited.

With that said, Randle and Smart would have gone 1-2 last year had Randle been a year older and Smart car out.