Lucky Spurs, unlucky Heat IMO. Westbrook injury gave the Spurs a free ride to the Finals last year and it may well happen again this year. Unlucky Heat because they match up well with the Thunder and I think the Spurs have a better shot against them.
This "one less team that can beat the Heat" logic is flawed, as there will be one less team to beat them anyway even if Ibaka was healthy because at the end of the day, only one team from the West will get to the Finals.