top 3, top 15, whatever: Who you got?
[edited to add in Vonleh]
1. Joel Embiid
Embiid went from absolute nobody to college superstar in one year. He intimidated at the rim and was extremely effective on offense despite constant double teams. Unless his back problems continue, no other prospect has either a higher ceiling or a higher floor.
2. Dante Exum
Exum has demonstrated great quickness, handles, finishing, passing, and feel for the game. His jump shot is questionable, but his form looks good. He certainly has the tools and the BBIQ to be great on D, though it's harder to evaluate. The only concern with Exum is that he hasn't been tested as much against top competition.
3. Jabari Parker
Parker projects as a subpar defender, but part of the issue might be that as the #1 scorer on his team, he simply didn't feel like he had to give max effort on D. Even if his D stays bad, his scoring might be good enough to make up for it.
4. Andrew Wiggins
I ranked Wiggins this low because his offensive skillset is really mediocre. He is a poor finisher at the rim and a poor dribbler, and his jumper is neither a weakness nor a strength. However, he has significant potential on offense, and his defense is reputably great. Does he have the passion and drive to realize his upside?
5. Marcus Smart
Smart is arguably the #1 defensive prospect in this draft not named Joel Embiid. His BBIQ and anticipation is outstanding, which also bodes well for his as-yet-underdeveloped PG skills. His shot is a big question mark, but he makes up for it by getting to the FT line at will.
6. Aaron Gordon
Gordon should not be compared to Blake Griffin. Gordon is a far better defender and a far worse scorer. He won't create his own shot, which limits his star potential, but he is an elite finisher at the rim, so the pairing with Rondo would be exciting. Gordon would be a more exciting prospect if he could add 20lb of muscle, which would give him the ability to defend NBA PF's. Right now, he is too skinny to play the 4 and his shooting is too bad to play the 3.
7. Jusuf Nurkic
Nurkic is posting really, really great stats against strong Adriatic League competition. His defense needs work, as he frequently fouls out of games, but he has the tools to be a good rim protector. Meanwhile, he could be a dominant offensive center with his bulk (280lb) and post skills, including a killer spin move.
8. Noah Vonleh
Vonleh is a prototypical raw, high-potential big man type. He has great size for a PF to go along with a promising jump shot. I have him ranked behind Nurkic based largely on stats: 26.5p/40 on 52% 2p% in NCAA, vs 23/28p/40 on 59/56% in far stronger Adriatic Leage/ Eurocup competition. Nurkic also gets more blocks and far more steals.
9. Nik Stauskas
Stauskas is a killer offensive weapon, but he projects as a poor defender. I think his incredible physical transformation last offseason, adding 15lb of muscle, bodes well for his future development.
10. KJ McDaniels
McDaniels played for a really bad Clemson team, which explains why he hasn't gotten much attention. But he plays elite defense and has good upside on offense too, what with his athleticism and midrange jumper.
11. Doug McDermott
Ougie Fresh projects as a serious defensive liability one-on-one, but I think his intelligent team defense and incredible scoring ability can make up for it to an extent. He needs to play on a team with a great rim protector, as he will probably have to play SF due to his short wingspan and most NBA SF's will be able to blow by him at will. [edit: I'm starting to regret putting McDermott this high... one point is that his defensive issues also correlate with offensive translation concerns, as he did get a lot of his points in the paint and at the FT line.]
12. Tyler Ennis
Ennis doesn't have the size and athleticism of a potential all-star, but he has great skills and should be a pretty safe pick outside the top 10.
13. Clint Capela
Capela has good stats, size and athleticism.
14. Gary Harris
Harris is a lockdown defender, and he has some offensive upside too.
15. Dario Saric
Saric has positional issues-- will he be a small PF or a slow SF? Another question mark is that he isn't that good off the ball, and might not be skilled enough to be featured on offense. I think he'll be an excellent sixth man.
