Why trading Rondo is not easy

[oldutican]

I think Ainge would trade Rondo, but finding a partner may be impossible. Any team trading for him has to meet these 4 criteria:

1. Rondo would elevate that team to the next level, likely a title contender.
2. The team has expendable assets that satisfy the Celts, and still leave the team with enough talent to contend.
3. Free agent to be Rondo must at least show some interest in re-signing with that team.
4. Salaries would leave both teams at an acceptable tax level.

After many trips through the trade machine, I don't see a team that meets all 4. I don't think Rondo does that much for the Rockets after they give up what it would take to swing the deal.

What do others think?

[D.o.s.]

Too many teams have a player that can contribute ~80% of what Rondo can to their squad -- and many of those teams have that player for less money. It makes more sense, then (for those teams), to go after other pieces than upgrading the point guard spot when chasing a title.

If you're the Houston Rockets, do you try to trade for Rondo when you already have Beverly, Lin, and Harden? Or do you try to chase Kevin Love, who would be an absolute monster on that team as the best floor-spacing PF?

[PhoSita]

Too many teams have a player that can contribute ~80% of what Rondo can to their squad -- and many of those teams have that player for less money. It makes more sense, then (for those teams), to go after other pieces than upgrading the point guard spot when chasing a title.

Yep, that's the truth of it.  So the only teams who will give up a substantial package for Rondo would be the handful of teams with truly bad play at the point guard position who are otherwise ready to compete very soon AND any teams that are desperate enough to improve that they'd pay a significant amount for that extra 20%. 

After all, in the post-season, an extra 20-25% from your point guard position can be the difference between advancing past the first round and getting sent home early.  Indeed, with Rondo you might get an extra 30-40% in the playoffs.


But yeah, point guard is a deep position right now, so it's hard.  On top of that, Rondo is an impending free agent and he's already 28 years old.  So you're talking about a fairly specific set of circumstances that a team will have to be in to want to trade for him.


Of course, the reasons that D.o.s. points out are the same reasons why trading Rondo makes sense for the Celtics too, even if you set aside the uncertainty of Rondo's free agency.  For a team that's still a couple core pieces away from being really good, would it make sense to pay 12-15 million a season for your point guard, when you could get 75-80% of that for half as much (or far less than half, if the replacement turns out to be somebody the team drafts this summer).

[D.o.s.]

That works both ways, though -- If the market for a Ty Lawson/Jrue Holiday/80%-er is right around ~10 million a year, wouldn't it make sense (if possible) to lock down Rondo for around that price over his prime and then look for other players to complement him with our more valuable assets?

[jambr380]

I believe there are probably about 25 teams out there who would rather have Rondo as their PG. Because of that, there are a number of potential trade partners. The value we get back is the real concern. One team who is perfectly content with their current PG is OKC - if they had not advanced, a deal with them may have made some sense.

[hwangjini_1]

I think Ainge would trade Rondo, but finding a partner may be impossible. Any team trading for him has to meet these 4 criteria:

1. Rondo would elevate that team to the next level, likely a title contender.
2. The team has expendable assets that satisfy the Celts, and still leave the team with enough talent to contend.
3. Free agent to be Rondo must at least show some interest in re-signing with that team.
4. Salaries would leave both teams at an acceptable tax level.

After many trips through the trade machine, I don't see a team that meets all 4. I don't think Rondo does that much for the Rockets after they give up what it would take to swing the deal.

What do others think?

Very good points, though we might also add that it nees to be a team needs a point guard. since there are many teams with credible pgs now, that narrows the field as well.

Dispite the thoughts of many in cb, trading rondo for a great return is not easy to do.

[PhoSita]

That works both ways, though -- If the market for a Ty Lawson/Jrue Holiday/80%-er is right around ~10 million a year, wouldn't it make sense (if possible) to lock down Rondo for around that price over his prime and then look for other players to complement him with our more valuable assets?

Yeah, that's true.  Maybe the market for Rondo won't be that strong for all the reasons we've discussed here, and the Celtics can secure him for closer to Ty Lawson money.

I feel like there will be one or two teams that miss out on some of the choice free agents next summer and decide to overpay for Rondo, though.  I seem to recall that happening in 2010 with some of the second tier of free agents (after LeBron, Bosh, and Wade).

[CoachBo]

The 80 percent level is a good point.

However, what post-injury evidence does any team have that Rondo "would elevate that team to a title contender?"

Answer: None. He played poorly post-injury.

That fact trumps all the others in the difficulty that is inherent in trading a flawed PG.

[nickagneta]

I believe there are probably about 25 teams out there who would rather have Rondo as their PG. Because of that, there are a number of potential trade partners. The value we get back is the real concern. One team who is perfectly content with their current PG is OKC - if they had not advanced, a deal with them may have made some sense.

If OKC could trade for Rondo without getting rid of Durant, Ibaka, or Westbrook, that team would be scary. OKC moves Westbrook off the ball and into a more natural, though undersized, SG position. Rondo handles a more stringent offense not predicated on motion and iso shot creation. Durant then gets the ball a lot more to shoot than does Westbrook and Westbrook can be the slash and shoot SG with a good handle, like Dywane Wade and possibly become more efficient.

Not going to happen but wow, that's a dangerous team with a starting five of Rondo/Westbrook/Durant/Ibaka/Perkins

[PhoSita]

I believe there are probably about 25 teams out there who would rather have Rondo as their PG. Because of that, there are a number of potential trade partners. The value we get back is the real concern. One team who is perfectly content with their current PG is OKC - if they had not advanced, a deal with them may have made some sense.

It's hard to find very many teams for whom Rondo would be a significant upgrade that actually have assets to give us.  That's kind of the problem.

[Jailan34]

I believe there are probably about 25 teams out there who would rather have Rondo as their PG. Because of that, there are a number of potential trade partners. The value we get back is the real concern. One team who is perfectly content with their current PG is OKC - if they had not advanced, a deal with them may have made some sense.

Given how unique a player RR is and how many great PG's are in the league today I can't imagine there are 25 teams who would prefer RR over their current pg.

[nickagneta]

I believe there are probably about 25 teams out there who would rather have Rondo as their PG. Because of that, there are a number of potential trade partners. The value we get back is the real concern. One team who is perfectly content with their current PG is OKC - if they had not advanced, a deal with them may have made some sense.

It's hard to find very many teams for whom Rondo would be a significant upgrade that actually have assets to give us.  That's kind of the problem.

Sometimes, no a lot of the time, its not about how much better Rondo is than the player that another team has but the style of play that Rondo brings and the intangibles he has that others do not.

There are currently a ton of shoot first PGs in this league, or at least a whole lot more than there was 15-30 years ago. Rondo is more of a pass first floor general type that makes other players more efficient on offense. So teams with shoot first PGs might want him if they feel their PG is hindering the team.

Then there's the intangibles. During the playoffs, simply put, Rondo is a superduperstar in this league. There's only a handful of guys in this league that can say they can be the best player on the floor in a playoff series and then back it up. Rondo is one of those guys. He is as tough as they come, has a winning mentality and tenaciousness bred from years of tutelage under KG and can take over a game and dominate it without even having to score.

So are there a bunch of teams with a player playing PG that can statistically give you 80% of what Rondo can? Yup. But sometimes that 20% makes a huge huge difference at the most crucial time of games and playoff series.

[PhoSita]

Then there's the intangibles. During the playoffs, simply put, Rondo is a superduperstar in this league. There's only a handful of guys in this league that can say they can be the best player on the floor in a playoff series and then back it up. Rondo is one of those guys. He is as tough as they come, has a winning mentality and tenaciousness bred from years of tutelage under KG and can take over a game and dominate it without even having to score.

So are there a bunch of teams with a player playing PG that can statistically give you 80% of what Rondo can? Yup. But sometimes that 20% makes a huge huge difference at the most crucial time of games and playoff series.

I agree with this (I said as much above).  Still, that limits you to teams that are already playoff caliber. 

Would Memphis swap Conley for Rondo?  I'm pretty sure they would.  So would Charlotte.

Toronto might, or they might not -- I think they're pretty dependent on shooting from the PG position as constructed. 

Dallas would love to have Rondo.  Houston would, too.  Atlanta would exchange Teague for Rondo, as good as Teague has been.

I'm not sure if Denver would prefer Lawson or not.  I think Lawson probably fits the style that team is built for better than Rondo would.

Minnesota clearly would be a lot better with Rondo.  Indiana would look far better with a real distributor running the offense.


It's really hard to think of any compelling trade packages with the teams I just mentioned, though.

[Moranis]

Lakers for Nash and their 1st really makes a lot of sense for both teams.

[PhoSita]

Lakers for Nash and their 1st really makes a lot of sense for both teams.

Yeah.  I'd really prefer a trade that nets the Celtics both a high pick as well as a young, cost-controlled player who is already productive, but Nash and the Lakers pick might be the best the Celtics can do.

I know I'm supposed to hate the Lakers, but I have to say, the idea of seeing Rondo and Kobe trying to figure out how to play together, and the combination of their fiery, competitive personalities, is really compelling.  That would be fascinating to follow.