Really.. noone saw this? Hou to call on Rondo?

[Celtics18]

Well none of us here have any special insight into Rondo's heart of hearts -- we're all making things up, to various degrees, when we talk about whether he'll resign here and what kind of contract he'll accept.

I'm not claiming to know what's in Rondo's heart of hearts.  Coach's consistent mockery of any opinion that runs counter to his own is slanderous, insulting, ignorant, and dishonest.

It's o.k, though.  I'm a big boy.  I can take it. 

[mmmmm]

We need to remember that Parsons, Lin, and Asik are all up for free agency after this coming season, as well. 

Is Parsons a UFA after his current contract, or a restricted free agent?  That matters, I think.

If he's a UFA, then it's a really bad deal, because the only "guaranteed" future asset would be the 25th pick.

I'm fairly sure he's going to be unrestricted.

Have they picked up his option for next year yet? They have some flexibility with him if they haven't.

They can decline their option for this upcoming year's contract and make him a RFA, the main cost is they eat some guaranteed salary (not a ton). Or they can get him another year cheap as heck and then he's a UFA.

Yes, though there is a danger there.  With current cap holds, Houston is over the salary cap for next year.

They would be able to make a maximum qualifying offer based on his 'starter criteria' status, but a team well under the cap could out-bid them.   If they declined the team option and made him an RFA this summer (all that would happen between the NBA Finals and June 30), here are the possible outcomes for Parsons (from Coon's FAQ http://www.cbafaq.com/salarycap.htm#Q44):

• He can accept his prior team's qualifying offer, play for one season, and become a free agent again the following summer.
• He can accept his prior team's maximum qualifying offer (if applicable, and if one has been submitted) and play under a long-term contract at the maximum salary.
• He can negotiate a new contract with his prior team that is independent of the qualifying offer or maximum qualifying offer.
• He can sign an offer sheet with another team through March 1, which his prior team is given the opportunity to match.
• If he doesn't sign a qualifying offer, a contract, or an offer sheet for one year, his prior team can submit a new qualifying offer (or maximum qualifying offer), and the player becomes a restricted free agent again the following offseason.

They would face a real risk that they could lose Parsons this summer - like we lost Steimsma a while back.

If he accepted just the one-year QO, then (a) he would be an UFA next summer anyway and (b) they could not trade him at all during this coming season.

There optimal scenario for Houston would be if he accepted a max QO offer that kept him there for multiple years.  But that would likely be for a lot less $$ than he stands to make next summer as a UFA because Houston is limited in what they can offer him right now.   So his agent would be crazy to let him sign on for that.

If they just exercise the team option, they get him next year for dirt cheap and then, while he would become an UFA anyway, they still would have Bird Rights to at least match his market price, even if over the cap.   Even if they didn't want to keep him, they could still trade him.

[D.o.s.]

Well none of us here have any special insight into Rondo's heart of hearts -- we're all making things up, to various degrees, when we talk about whether he'll resign here and what kind of contract he'll accept.

I'm not claiming to know what's in Rondo's heart of hearts.  Coach's consistent mockery of any opinion that runs counter to his own is slanderous, insulting, ignorant, and dishonest.

It's o.k, though.  I'm a big boy.  I can take it.

 

[PhoSita]

I don't think trying to rebuild a team with "Murphy's Law" as your guiding principle is the best way to go.

No.  But I think good management means being aware of all likely possibilities and planning for them accordingly.  Making the most of your circumstances, not wishing them to be as you'd prefer.

[Celtics18]

I don't think trying to rebuild a team with "Murphy's Law" as your guiding principle is the best way to go.

No.  But I think good management means being aware of all likely possibilities and planning for them accordingly.  Making the most of your circumstances, not wishing them to be as you'd prefer.

Sure.  That sounds good. 

[PhoSita]

Well none of us here have any special insight into Rondo's heart of hearts -- we're all making things up, to various degrees, when we talk about whether he'll resign here and what kind of contract he'll accept.

I think "making stuff up" is a little bit unfair.

What most of us are doing, I think, is placing ourselves in what we perceive to be Rondo's situation (given what we know) and trying to figure out what he'll do based on what we think, or hope, his values are.

None of us really know what is most important to Rondo.  Is it winning?  Is it money?  Is it fame?  Is it loyalty?  Is it familiarity?  We can only speculate. 

[mmmmm]

Well none of us here have any special insight into Rondo's heart of hearts -- we're all making things up, to various degrees, when we talk about whether he'll resign here and what kind of contract he'll accept.

I think "making stuff up" is a little bit unfair.

What most of us are doing, I think, is placing ourselves in what we perceive to be Rondo's situation (given what we know) and trying to figure out what he'll do based on what we think, or hope, his values are.

None of us really know what is most important to Rondo.  Is it winning?  Is it money?  Is it fame?  Is it loyalty?  Is it familiarity?  We can only speculate.

Absent the ability to read minds, it is usually the safest bet to listen to what the money is saying.

As it stands right now, money says that there is almost zero reason for Rondo to do anything contract wise until he is a free agent.   Money also says that Boston will have the ability to give Rondo both the longest and the biggest contract.

Money also says that Rondo's trade value is low if he does not agree to an extension with whatever team he is going to.

Money also listens to Rondo's comments about staying for 10 years and notes that a "no trade" clause could be bartered for a lower per-annum.  But again, Money knows that a "no trade" cannot be inserted in an extension so can ONLY be added to a new contract -- next summer.

Money basically says Rondo is not likely to be extended OR traded this summer or this season.   

Money says that if Rondo is traded, it most likely would be as a sign & trade next summer. 

Money suggest that if Rondo is kept, it will likely be because he agreed to a discount in exchange for a 'no trade' clause --- but again, no earlier than next summer.

All this fretting and wondering over what to do with Rondo right now seems a bit like jumping the gun.   Yes, there is a _chance_ something could happen with Rondo this summer.  But the likelihood is probably pretty low.

Money is not always right, of course.

[D.o.s.]

TP for a freakin' awesome post.

[PhoSita]

Absent the ability to read minds, it is usually the safest bet to listen to what the money is saying.

As it stands right now, money says that there is almost zero reason for Rondo to do anything contract wise until he is a free agent.   Money also says that Boston will have the ability to give Rondo both the longest and the biggest contract.

I echo what D.o.s. said -- this is an excellent post.  It's hard to argue with much of what you say.

I don't think money is the whole story, though.  After all, if money were the only thing that matters, LeBron would still be in Cleveland, Dwight would have stayed in L.A., and so on.

I view Rondo's impending free agency through the prism of what free agents of similar profile, age, and situation have done recently.  That means that I expect money to play a large role in Rondo's decision, but I think that finding a winning situation, ideally with plenty of national attention (we all know how much Rondo loves being on national television) will be a big part of his decision making, too.

[Donoghus]

Reminds me of the AC/DC tune "Money Talks".

[D.o.s.]

Absent the ability to read minds, it is usually the safest bet to listen to what the money is saying.

As it stands right now, money says that there is almost zero reason for Rondo to do anything contract wise until he is a free agent.   Money also says that Boston will have the ability to give Rondo both the longest and the biggest contract.

I echo what D.o.s. said -- this is an excellent post.  It's hard to argue with much of what you say.

I don't think money is the whole story, though.  After all, if money were the only thing that matters, LeBron would still be in Cleveland, Dwight would have stayed in L.A., and so on.

I view Rondo's impending free agency through the prism of what free agents of similar profile, age, and situation have done recently.  That means that I expect money to play a large role in Rondo's decision, but I think that finding a winning situation, ideally with plenty of national attention (we all know how much Rondo loves being on national television) will be a big part of his decision making, too.

One of the big differences between Rondo and Dwight, though, is that Rondo's already got his ring. He's never going to be slumping his shoulders and saying "Burgers are ready" in Foot Locker ads. Many NBA players look for rings and other legacy things before financial security -- Dwight, LeBron, etc.

Hazarding a guess, I think Rondo wants Scott Skiles' record, and the consecutive double-digit assists record. Then a big payday. Then another ring.

[kozlodoev]

Hazarding a guess, I think Rondo wants Scott Skiles' record

Yeah, gotta suck to be tied with Ramon Sessions with "only" 24. I mean, even Ramon Sessions can do that!

[PhoSita]

One of the big differences between Rondo and Dwight, though, is that Rondo's already got his ring. He's never going to be slumping his shoulders and saying "Burgers are ready" in Foot Locker ads. Many NBA players look for rings and other legacy things before financial security -- Dwight, LeBron, etc.

That's one way to look at it.

Me, I think about everything I've read about Rondo, and one of the consistent threads is that he's extremely competitive, and has little patience for teammates who aren't focused, or who aren't locked into a winning mentality, with the ability to keep pace with him (mentally and physically) on the court.

Rondo spent his first year in the league on an awful team, and the next 5 seasons after that on a very good team with a bunch of guys headed to the Hall of Fame someday, winning one title and coming within a quarter of a second title along the way, not to mention winning a whole bunch of playoff games.

So yeah, that could mean that he's had enough winning and he can be content to focus on other career goals.  Or it means that he'll have little patience for a rebuilding situation and he'll want to find a better one ASAP, because he's tasted what it's like to play championship basketball and he doesn't want to spend the remainder of his physical prime with a bunch of teammates still figuring out how to do that (with no guarantee they'll ever get there).

I mean, this is the guy who has developed a reputation throughout his career for taking his play to another level anytime a game is nationally televised (to the point where he's talked about as a different person in such games).  I find it hard to believe that he'd be content to stick around on a rebuilding team for what might be his most productive years in the league.

[mmmmm]

One of the big differences between Rondo and Dwight, though, is that Rondo's already got his ring. He's never going to be slumping his shoulders and saying "Burgers are ready" in Foot Locker ads. Many NBA players look for rings and other legacy things before financial security -- Dwight, LeBron, etc.

That's one way to look at it.

Me, I think about everything I've read about Rondo, and one of the consistent threads is that he's extremely competitive, and has little patience for teammates who aren't focused, or who aren't locked into a winning mentality, with the ability to keep pace with him (mentally and physically) on the court.

Rondo spent his first year in the league on an awful team, and the next 5 seasons after that on a very good team with a bunch of guys headed to the Hall of Fame someday, winning one title and coming within a quarter of a second title along the way, not to mention winning a whole bunch of playoff games.

So yeah, that could mean that he's had enough winning and he can be content to focus on other career goals.  Or it means that he'll have little patience for a rebuilding situation and he'll want to find a better one ASAP, because he's tasted what it's like to play championship basketball and he doesn't want to spend the remainder of his physical prime with a bunch of teammates still figuring out how to do that (with no guarantee they'll ever get there).

I mean, this is the guy who has developed a reputation throughout his career for taking his play to another level anytime a game is nationally televised (to the point where he's talked about as a different person in such games).  I find it hard to believe that he'd be content to stick around on a rebuilding team for what might be his most productive years in the league.

'Doesn't really matter how hard we find such a thing to believe.  None of us can know what's in his head.  If that's how he plays things out that's how it will play out.   I think pretending we can understand the psyche of pro athletes (or any celebrities) is a fool's game.   I'm sure there were a few fans who thought they had a read on Aaron Hernandez.  Right.

No matter how Rondo feels about this, it will still probably ultimately come down to money in the sense of the nature of what kind of contract he does sign (and probably not until next summer).

If he wants to stay here, it will likely be at some level of discount, but probably WITH a no-trade clause.  If he wants an absolute max deal, there will be someone willing to pay it in a S&T.   If he wants to go to a specific team for competitive situation, he'll likely go there at less than absolute max in an S&T.

Danny will either have Rondo locked in at a price that doesn't kill the cap or he'll have some sort of assets back from the S&T.   Maybe not a superstar, but it will be something.

I really don't see the point of worrying too much about it right now.    People get too caught up with trying to read between the lines of every single utterance that escapes Danny or Rondo's (or Brad's) lips, magnifying the significance of every breath tenfold.

It's not in the interest of _anyone_, not either side, to commit or show inclination one way or the other in advance.

[PhoSita]

I really don't see the point of worrying too much about it right now.    People get too caught up with trying to read between the lines of every single utterance that escapes Danny or Rondo's (or Brad's) lips, magnifying the significance of every breath tenfold.

It's not in the interest of _anyone_, not either side, to commit or show inclination one way or the other in advance.

Well, I don't think it's in the interest of the Celtics to just wait until next summer to worry about whether or not they can re-sign Rondo.  Because by then it'll be too late to get a good return for him if it turns out that he's interested in signing elsewhere.