Snagged from another site:
Captain_Caveman wrote:
Approximate lottery odds for a 3-way tie for 4th worst with Jazz and Lakers vs being alone in 5th worst, which is more or less what at stake's in tonight's Utah-LA game:
1st: 9% vs 8.8%
2nd: 9.8% vs 9.7%
3rd: 10.7% vs 10.7%
4th: 3.3% vs 0%
5th: 20.4% vs 26.1%
6th: 32% vs 36%
7th: 13.4% vs 8.4%
8th: 1.5% vs 0.4%
9th: 0.03% vs 0%
Considering those odds, and the chance that we could end up 6th after coin tosses, I'd probably rather settle in at 5th rather than a 3 way tie for 4th, with the risk of dropping to 6th. Bonus of keeping the Lakers behind us. Slim possibility, but there's always the chance that Utah could beat Minny on Weds, and we'd end up in a 2 way tie with them for 4th, assuming we'd lose to Washington, who wants to win to avoid Miami.
In terms of the chance of moving into the top 3, the chances are nearly identical with 3 way tie for 4th, vs solely 5th, so hoping for a Lakers win tonight. Lakers and Utah tied going into the fourth.