Giving up both our 2014 1st to grab Embiid. Yes or no?

[Moranis]

Carmelo Anthony's HOF probability is .9014

Do you think 'Melo is destined for the Hall, too?

Yes.  The probability is based on looking at what actually gets people into the HOF.  It is pretty darn accurate historically.  Melo has the numbers, he has the fame, and frankly has a lot of the other things that are needed (all star games, all nba, etc.).  He has never missed the playoffs in his career.  Has a NCAA title.  A lot of U.S. Olympic success.  Carmelo Anthony will make the basketball HOF and I don't think there is really any question.

I will say this, Moranis, you are my favorite bean counter on this site.

And I mean that as a compliment.

Thanks.  History matters.  Things happen over and over again for a reason.  When you figure out the reason, you try to replicate it.  That is why I would want a big man that can score and rebound (and could give a crap if he passes the ball).  That is why I could care less about the PG position (look at history, all star PG's rarely even play for the NBA Title nonetheless win them outside of the physical freak that is Magic or a team with a ton of HOFers i.e. the Isiah Pistons or Cousy's Celtics).  That is why I can't stand signing role players when you don't have the franchise players in tact.  That is also why I believe that Boston should (and hopefully will) make a real move in one direction or another this summer.  This status quo stuff needs to end.  Boston either needs to go full on tank by trading all useful veterans (i.e. Rondo, Bass, Wallace, Green and letting guys like Bradley, Bayless, and Hump sign elsewhere) or trade a bunch of the picks for some stars and go all in.  No more of this lets try to be mediocre crap.  Sports are about winning titles or at least having real shots at winning titles.   

[LooseCannon]

Carmelo Anthony's HOF probability is .9014

Do you think 'Melo is destined for the Hall, too?

Yes.  The probability is based on looking at what actually gets people into the HOF.  It is pretty darn accurate historically.  Melo has the numbers, he has the fame, and frankly has a lot of the other things that are needed (all star games, all nba, etc.).  He has never missed the playoffs in his career.  Has a NCAA title.  A lot of U.S. Olympic success.  Carmelo Anthony will make the basketball HOF and I don't think there is really any question.

The main reason is that he is probably going to amass so many points scored that people will have a hard time leaving him out of the Hall of Fame.

[Moranis]

Carmelo Anthony's HOF probability is .9014

Do you think 'Melo is destined for the Hall, too?

Yes.  The probability is based on looking at what actually gets people into the HOF.  It is pretty darn accurate historically.  Melo has the numbers, he has the fame, and frankly has a lot of the other things that are needed (all star games, all nba, etc.).  He has never missed the playoffs in his career.  Has a NCAA title.  A lot of U.S. Olympic success.  Carmelo Anthony will make the basketball HOF and I don't think there is really any question.

The main reason is that he is probably going to amass so many points scored that people will have a hard time leaving him out of the Hall of Fame.

7 categories in the HOF monitor. 

height                          -0.1771
last season indicator            3.1498
NBA points per game              0.3433
NBA rebounds per game            0.4193
NBA assists per game             0.3327
NBA All-Star game selections     0.5626
NBA championships won            0.9151

Hall of Fame probabilities are presented for all players with a minimum of 400 NBA games played. Although it can be risky to make predictions for active players, you can think of these probabilities as answering the question "If this player retired today, what is the probability he would be elected to the Hall of Fame?". The model was built using a pool of 750 players. One method to assess classification accuracy is to compare the estimated Hall of Fame probability for the case to the actual result. Of the 750 players, 89 had been elected to the Hall of Fame and 661 had not. If the player's predicted probability of election was greater than or equal to 0.5, I predicted that he was in the Hall of Fame. Of the 89 players in the Hall of Fame, 74 were correctly classified (83.1%) and 15 were not (16.9%). Of the 661 players not in the Hall of Fame, 651 were correctly classified (98.5%) and 10 were not (1.5%). Overall, 725 of the 750 players (96.7%) were correctly classified by the model.

the example he used on the site is JoJo White

The parameter estimates given in the previous section can be used to obtain the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election for a particular player. I will go through an example using Jo Jo White. Find the values of the seven predictor variables for White, multiply them by the coefficients given in the table above, and find the sum of the products:
height                        -0.1771 * 75      = -13.2825
last season indicator          3.1498 *  0      =   0
NBA points per game            0.3433 * 17.2031 =   5.9058
NBA rebounds per game          0.4193 *  3.9964 =   1.6757
NBA assists per game           0.3327 *  4.8925 =   1.6277
NBA All-Star game selections   0.5626 *  7      =   3.9382
NBA championships won          0.9151 *  2      =   1.8302
----------------------------------------------------------
                                                    1.6951


To find the predicted probability of Hall of Fame election, do the following:
P(HoF election) = 1 / (1 + e**(-(1.6951)))
                = 0.845