Celtics future situation: Realgm radio

[PhoSita]

 Bradley is a solid shooter for beyond the arc and a very good catch and shoot player.

I'm not sure the numbers bear this out.

Bradley is an okay shooter from beyond the arc, but over 90% of his 3P attempts are assisted, and he hits roughly 37% of them.  I'm skeptical that he's actually a "very good" catch and shoot player.  Most of his offense this year, as I said, has come on the dribble pull-ups inside the arc (which he's hitting at around 44%).


I can't think of too many times when Bradley's defense has stood out to me this year, unlike previous years.  I think playing starter minutes consistently and having a larger role in the offense has perhaps taken something away from his defensive intensity.

Avery's defensive rating for the year is 109, while his offensive rating is 98.

For comparison, Jerryd Bayless has the same defensive rating (109) with Boston, with a 104 offensive rating.

[Rondo9]

 Bradley is a solid shooter for beyond the arc and a very good catch and shoot player.

I'm not sure the numbers bear this out.

Bradley is an okay shooter from beyond the arc, but over 90% of his 3P attempts are assisted, and he hits roughly 37% of them.  I'm skeptical that he's actually a "very good" catch and shoot player.  Most of his offense this year, as I said, has come on the dribble pull-ups inside the arc (which he's hitting at around 44%).


I can't think of too many times when Bradley's defense has stood out to me this year, unlike previous years.  I think playing starter minutes consistently and having a larger role in the offense has perhaps taken something away from his defensive intensity.

Avery's defensive rating for the year is 109, while his offensive rating is 98.

For comparison, Jerryd Bayless has the same defensive rating (109) with Boston, with a 104 offensive rating.

Hitting 37 percent is pretty solid, and I think the reason that he shot a lot of pull up jumpers because Rondo was out for a majority of the season. When they're together Bradley works well off the ball. Also Brad Stevens told to reign it down on defense so he focus more on offense.

[PhoSita]

Hitting 37 percent is pretty solid, and I think the reason that he shot a lot of pull up jumpers because Rondo was out for a majority of the season. When they're together Bradley works well off the ball. Also Brad Stevens told to reign it down on defense so he focus more on offense.

Hitting 37 percent of 3 pointers is fine, but is not on the same level as most of the players I listed on the previous page.  Avery is an average, if streaky, shooter from outside (for his position), and the only shot he can reliably create for himself is a pull-up shot from deep two point range -- i.e. the worst shot in basketball.

You're correct that Bradley is a more effective offensive player when he shares the court with Rondo.  However, the same can be said of most shooting guards with off-ball acumen.  Even Jerryd Bayless, an on-ball shot creator, has shown a penchant for playing well off of Rondo.

My point here is not that Avery is not a useful player, simply that it is not hard to find comparable value for him on the free agent or trade market, and that players of his caliber tend to make less than $6 million a year.

[LooseCannon]

which player(s) can you get for 6 million a year that would be better than AB at the sg position??

Players making less than $6 million who I think are more versatile / reliable / durable than Bradley:

Gerald Green -- $3.5 million
Danny Green -- $3.7 million
Marco Belinelli -- $2.75 million
Vince Carter -- $3.2 million
Thabo Sefolosha -- $3.9 million
Mike Dunleavy -- $3.2 million
Jodie Meeks -- $1.5 million


Comparable or slightly less value but makes significantly less:

Randy Foye -- $3 million
Kirk Hinrich -- $4 million
Anthony Morrow -- $1 million

Slightly above $6.5 but way more valuable:

Kevin Martin -- $6.5 million
Wesley Matthews -- $6.7 million
Kyle Korver -- $6.7 million

In my view, the league abounds with nice-but-not-great shooting guards and combo wings who can spread the floor, defend a little, rebound a little, and handle the ball a little.  Many of them can spread the floor really, really well.  There's just no reason to go as high as $6 million a year to keep Avery Bradley, and certainly not above that. 

He's very replaceable.  You don't shell out north of $5 million a year for replaceable players.

One very big difference between Bradley and those names is age.  Bradley is still only 23 years old.  His next contract will take into account the realistic expectation that his next three seasons are very likely to be better than the previous three.  It would be a mistake to evaluate him based on the premise that he has probably hit his ceiling and maxed out his potential this season.

[D.o.s.]

which player(s) can you get for 6 million a year that would be better than AB at the sg position??

Players making less than $6 million who I think are more versatile / reliable / durable than Bradley:

Gerald Green -- $3.5 million
Danny Green -- $3.7 million
Marco Belinelli -- $2.75 million
Vince Carter -- $3.2 million
Thabo Sefolosha -- $3.9 million
Mike Dunleavy -- $3.2 million
Jodie Meeks -- $1.5 million


Comparable or slightly less value but makes significantly less:

Randy Foye -- $3 million
Kirk Hinrich -- $4 million
Anthony Morrow -- $1 million

Slightly above $6.5 but way more valuable:

Kevin Martin -- $6.5 million
Wesley Matthews -- $6.7 million
Kyle Korver -- $6.7 million

In my view, the league abounds with nice-but-not-great shooting guards and combo wings who can spread the floor, defend a little, rebound a little, and handle the ball a little.  Many of them can spread the floor really, really well.  There's just no reason to go as high as $6 million a year to keep Avery Bradley, and certainly not above that. 

He's very replaceable.  You don't shell out north of $5 million a year for replaceable players.

One very big difference between Bradley and those names is age.  Bradley is still only 23 years old.  His next contract will take into account the realistic expectation that his next three seasons are very likely to be better than the previous three.  It would be a mistake to evaluate him based on the premise that he has probably hit his ceiling and maxed out his potential this season.

I know you were very vocal about 'not' wanting Eric Gordon -- because of his lack of defense and his injury history. At what point does Bradley shift into the Gordon Spectrum of injury prone?

[LooseCannon]

I know you were very vocal about 'not' wanting Eric Gordon -- because of his lack of defense and his injury history. At what point does Bradley shift into the Gordon Spectrum of injury prone?

Probably when his injuries are bad enough that he is considering something on the same level of severity as microfracture surgery, which Gordon contemplated but eventually decided against.  I do wonder if some of Bradley's time off this season is due to stuff that he would play through if it were the playoffs but which they are taking extra precautions because it is not worth risking anything during a season like this.

I'm also more willing to take some risks on an injury-prone player for $6-7m/year instead of the $13-15m/year that Gordon is getting.

[chambers]

1) Randle and Gordon don't do anything for me. It's the perfect time to roll the dice for this team in the first round of the draft. DA got two solid pieces in KO and Sully which he'll be able to include as serious value in a trade for Love (either player), or develop into a solid starting Nba forward (Sully at this stage).

2) we missed out on Giannis but Olynyk has been fine overall. Giannis had superstar makings with his length,size etc... Doesn't matter if he couldn't shoot because he's a teenager and a young one at that- loads of time to perfect his form. I would've loved Dieng and was advocating for him- his footwork and defensive awareness are things you can't teach.
I don't think he took faverani as a rim protector/ defensive big. He's slow and overweight and was probably looking to turn him into a trade chip but he's been mediocre to okay/serviceable.

3) I agree 100% on sully but his weight worries me... This offseason will be very telling for his weight motivations.

4) there is absolutely no way we can sign Bradley to a 6 million per year deal under the new CBA. If someone posted how many games he's actually played out of the games the Celtics have actually played then it's gotta be less than 50% over 3 years. Just too injury prone and weak offensively. Undersized, mediocre offense and always hurt. 4 million at the very most.

5) rondo is still sitting back to back games, he's still not recovered enough to play 2 games in 2 days.
Rondo doesn't need the big 3 around him, but like any All star he's going to need other All Stars around him to get past the 2nd round of the playoffs because most(or all) other top 8 nba teams need multiple All Stars to get anywhere. That's just a fact of life in the nba.
I'm not sure what kind of accountability Rondo is being held to or has broken considering his general manager has moved all Rondo's upper tier help and designed a roster around him that was set up to shoot and defend poorly.

Rondo needs shooters around him to cater to his strengths; being pin point passing and penetration when his surrounding shooters are being over defended and space is created. He's had 3 to 4 elite jump shooters around him on his best teams just like Tony Parker and Chris Paul need to make the most of their instincts and drive and dish skills.
He also needs solid rim protection and outlet passing to help him set up fast break opportunities aka KG and Perkins/Shaq.

Giannis would've been an awesome addition to a Rondo squad because he can get from one end of the floor to the other with 2 or 3 dribbles....if he learns to shoot he'll be unstoppable. It's what Danny was hoping for in Jeff Green as a fast break deer running with Rondo all night, problem is Jeff G just doesn't have the nightly mojo or hustle that Rondo has and NEEDS around him.
Rondo needs guys who want to win all around him. Guys who are hungry. And it's been brutally tough on him this year with our self created bum squad.

[PhoSita]

One very big difference between Bradley and those names is age.  Bradley is still only 23 years old.  His next contract will take into account the realistic expectation that his next three seasons are very likely to be better than the previous three.  It would be a mistake to evaluate him based on the premise that he has probably hit his ceiling and maxed out his potential this season.

The problem as I see it with expecting Bradley to improve significantly is that

a) He's been injury prone for his entire time in the league; safe to assume that will continue.  This will hinder his progress moving forward, as it has done so far.

b) The weaknesses in Bradley's game are more issues of fundamental lack of skill rather than a need for better decision making or physical development.  We're not talking about a 6'11'' beanpole who might fill out and become much more effective with more muscle.  I do think Bradley will become a better outside shooter over time.  I am not optimistic that he will become a better ball-handler or inside finisher. 

I am concerned he will become too enamoured with his deep mid-range jumper to the detriment of other parts of his game (this already seems to be the case).  I think it's safe to say he's not going to grow another couple of inches.

[gpap]

RealGM Radio: Jared Weiss, Andrew Perna Discuss Celtics
http://basketball.realgm.com/podcasts/RealGM-Radio-Full-Episode-140403b.mp3

Summary (in no particular order):

2014 draft
- picking one of the top projected three (wiggins ,embiid, parker) would really help the current team
- outside of the three, players like gordon (lack of offense), randle (bc of sulliner, olynyk) would not really help with the current team issues.
- Exum can help. If he gets stronger possibly play sf? Also bc he plays SG/PG dont need to resign AB or no urgency
- With our 2nd pick Celts names like Anderson, Mcdermott was brought up. Mcdermott is projected to go in the late lotto but likely will fall. He would be a player Danny would like and can provide scoring help

2013 draft revisit
- Celts missed out on Giannis. Younger and higher upside than KO.  Sullinger, Giannis, Rondo would of been a good looking future nucleus
- Plumlee and Dieng also possible misses. Rim Protection was and is needed. Both rookies are doing great, especially Dieng as of late
- KO still potential to be a double double guy (A Ryan Anderson but without the deadly shot). But low ceiling

Sullinger
- Excellent production for a guy who makes 1.5 million. One of the untouchables going fwd unless you can get a Kevin Love. No pt of trading him to get a comparable return
- Back problem also could still be a concern for some GM's

AB
- has not improved to expectations
- injury prone
- still at 6 million a year would be considered good to keep and at worse can be used as trade bait (nene effect)

Rondo
- considered the only star left on the team. 
- trading him would set the team back
- the team really needs to add another player able to handle the ball . Going back to the 2014 draft topic, someone like a Kyle Anderson would help with this issue. Jeff green is not an advanced ball handler outside of straight line drives. Poor pnr player

Contention
- at this rate/including good draft pickups, earliest can contend in 2017, maybe 2016.
- Heat won't be dominant in two/three years. Dwade already constantly injured
- The Jury is still out on the Pacers, who in the beginning of the year looked like the next young dominant team out of the east.
- No other team from the east shows dominating potential

My Comment:

1.  Don't agree with these guys about Gordon and Randle. Yes they would overlap many things Sullinger and KO can do/will do, but you don't draft based on needs.  Both are really young and also fill in needs the team has 1. Defense, Lack of Athleticism (Gordon) 2. Low Post scoring, Aggression (Randle).  Exum would also be a fine pick, to take over the SG spot and be an insurance if Rondo leaves. He has stated he prefers to be a pg in the NBA. Suggesting he could play SF in the nba is crazy and will never happen

2. I'm not upset Danny skipped on Giannis.  He skipped on him bc we already had Jeff Green and Giannis is not a very good shooter. The different tools/skills make him look like a future star, but he is still ways away from putting it together.  Still young, but its mainly about upside right now. They do have a case regarding Plumlee and Dieng. I actually had them pegged for Danny to draft. Either of them would of worked better with Sullinger , and also would of provided length/above rim play we are dying without right now.  I think Danny thought Faverani would do just as good as these guys and KO with his unique skillset would be too good to pass up. While KO has been ok, Faverani so far has been a bust

3. Sullinger is definitely one of the steals of the 2012 draft. He could easily be paid 5-7 million a year right now, for the production he provides. However i wouldn't call him an untouchable moving fwd.  If the team could get a legit center for Sully, i would consider making that trade. Heck even for Plumlee, Dieng, i would think about it.  He is still a nice young pf that should be better with a better body next season. But at best a 3rd/4th scoring option

4.  Definitely good idea to sign AB for 6 million a year (even if we draft exum) and at worse trade him later. He is young still and hopefully gets over the injury bug. Even if he misses a major part of the year but comesback for the playoffs (like wade), would be a nice player to have on the team.

5.  Not a big fan of Rondo since the beginning of last season.  Can't agree the team would move backwards without him.  The only way Rondo helps this team is, if you stack it with high calibre players.  He has been programmed how to execute set plays with the big three on the team. Imo unless you get near identical players like the Big Three (and a coach like Rivers motivating him constantly), he is not nearly that good of a player.  Giving him freedom/lack of accountability = losses for the team in the regular season

6. If Rondo is the guy you build around, i do agree that one or two more high calibre ball handlers are required.  Someone that can give Rondo a break (though i wouldn't bank on Rondo giving up the ball easily) and a rim protector.  Jeff Green is a decent player and has played better without Rondo. So again if Rondo is the guy you build around, Green has to go. The experiment has failed.  Kyle Anderson would be an excellent pickup. Mcdermott would be a favorite target for Rondo to pass to.  Danny imo will pickup one of these kind of players instead of a project like Capela (which could be a mistake). The need to be relevant soon, bc of Rondo's contract situation and to attract 2015 FAs is big.

Overall it was a nice listen.  Never thought about 2017 and how the east conf might look then. I pray it won't take until 2017 until we make the playoffs

thoughts?

I definitely agree with you on number 1 of what you said. Right now, if I am the Celtics, I am drafting either Marcus Smart of Julius Randle. I don't view Olynyk and to a lesser extent Sullinger as a long-term fixture at the power forward position by any means.

It's not like there isn't room for improvement.

Besides, chances are Wiggins/Exum/Parker/Embiid (if they are even in the draft) will fall to Phily, Milwaukee and Orlando.

If I am Danny Ainge, I am already thinking Randle or Smart.

Randle looks more athletic than Sullinger and Smart could be the team's future 2 guard.

You'll have to help me out on Exum, as admittedly I don't know much about him.

And let's hope the RealGM guys were wrong about the Celts not being competitive again til 2016/17.

Randle sucks!

Okay that's an overstatement. But Sullinger will always be better. Why do people even argue?

1.) No one is arguing

2.) How many games have you seen Randle play in the NBA?

[D.o.s.]

4) there is absolutely no way we can sign Bradley to a 6 million per year deal under the new CBA. If someone posted how many games he's actually played out of the games the Celtics have actually played then it's gotta be less than 50% over 3 years. Just too injury prone and weak offensively. Undersized, mediocre offense and always hurt. 4 million at the very most.

229 games over the last 3 years. Bradley has played in 169. More than 50%.

[chambers]

4) there is absolutely no way we can sign Bradley to a 6 million per year deal under the new CBA. If someone posted how many games he's actually played out of the games the Celtics have actually played then it's gotta be less than 50% over 3 years. Just too injury prone and weak offensively. Undersized, mediocre offense and always hurt. 4 million at the very most.

229 games over the last 3 years. Bradley has played in 169. More than 50%.

How did you get that number Dos? Just 3 regular seasons is 82 x 3 = 246 games. That's not including playoffs which add another 15-20 games on top?

I have our team at 267 games over the past 3 years(seasons) including playoffs.. and Bradley playing in 69% of them (185 total).

That's not counting his first season where he played 31 games out of 91 possible games. If we include that season he's at 216 games out of 358 Celtics games. (keep in mind as a rookie he might not have seen the floor at all regardless of his injury).
Technically we can say he's played in 60% of possible games as a Celtic in 4 seasons and 69% of games in the last 3 seasons.

So yeah, you're right he's played a decent amount over half his games. Not sure the numbers change the situation- He still misses too many games and has not improved enough skill wise to garner 6 million a year, especially under this new NBA cap.

[slamtheking]

4) there is absolutely no way we can sign Bradley to a 6 million per year deal under the new CBA. If someone posted how many games he's actually played out of the games the Celtics have actually played then it's gotta be less than 50% over 3 years. Just too injury prone and weak offensively. Undersized, mediocre offense and always hurt. 4 million at the very most.

229 games over the last 3 years. Bradley has played in 169. More than 50%.

73% is still nothing to brag about.  that's 20 missed games a year.   that lack of durability should result in a $4 mill per year contract at best.  Of course, there may be some GM out there will to throw a lot more (unreasonable) $ at him

[wdleehi]

RealGM Radio: Jared Weiss, Andrew Perna Discuss Celtics
http://basketball.realgm.com/podcasts/RealGM-Radio-Full-Episode-140403b.mp3

Summary (in no particular order):

2014 draft
- picking one of the top projected three (wiggins ,embiid, parker) would really help the current team
- outside of the three, players like gordon (lack of offense), randle (bc of sulliner, olynyk) would not really help with the current team issues.
- Exum can help. If he gets stronger possibly play sf? Also bc he plays SG/PG dont need to resign AB or no urgency
- With our 2nd pick Celts names like Anderson, Mcdermott was brought up. Mcdermott is projected to go in the late lotto but likely will fall. He would be a player Danny would like and can provide scoring help

2013 draft revisit
- Celts missed out on Giannis. Younger and higher upside than KO.  Sullinger, Giannis, Rondo would of been a good looking future nucleus
- Plumlee and Dieng also possible misses. Rim Protection was and is needed. Both rookies are doing great, especially Dieng as of late
- KO still potential to be a double double guy (A Ryan Anderson but without the deadly shot). But low ceiling

Sullinger
- Excellent production for a guy who makes 1.5 million. One of the untouchables going fwd unless you can get a Kevin Love. No pt of trading him to get a comparable return
- Back problem also could still be a concern for some GM's

AB
- has not improved to expectations
- injury prone
- still at 6 million a year would be considered good to keep and at worse can be used as trade bait (nene effect)

Rondo
- considered the only star left on the team. 
- trading him would set the team back
- the team really needs to add another player able to handle the ball . Going back to the 2014 draft topic, someone like a Kyle Anderson would help with this issue. Jeff green is not an advanced ball handler outside of straight line drives. Poor pnr player

Contention
- at this rate/including good draft pickups, earliest can contend in 2017, maybe 2016.
- Heat won't be dominant in two/three years. Dwade already constantly injured
- The Jury is still out on the Pacers, who in the beginning of the year looked like the next young dominant team out of the east.
- No other team from the east shows dominating potential

1)  2014 draft, trust Ainge to make the right choice.  I wouldn't expect to see three young PFs on the team in need of minutes, but would not stop Ainge from making the move if the talent is the clear advantage in the draft.

2)  Way to soon to tell.  At this point, drafting a player that can contribute in the future is a win in that terrible draft.

3)  Sullinger is not untouchable.  He is a huge possible trade piece if his back check out.  (not that I think he should be traded)

4)  6 million is to much at this point for AB (and just about any role playing swing man and PG)  Not a comment on AB play level, a comment on the new salary cap (tax) and trying to leave as much room under it to sign star level players (drafted or traded for)

5)  I don't want to see Rondo traded, but if a team suddenly offers a sock knocking off for Rondo, have to be open to it.  (the majority of Rondo ideas I have seen do not knock socks off)

6)  There is no way to know how long to be back in contention.  Not every draft pick the Celtics have are going to be used by the Celtics in the draft.

[D.o.s.]

4) there is absolutely no way we can sign Bradley to a 6 million per year deal under the new CBA. If someone posted how many games he's actually played out of the games the Celtics have actually played then it's gotta be less than 50% over 3 years. Just too injury prone and weak offensively. Undersized, mediocre offense and always hurt. 4 million at the very most.

229 games over the last 3 years. Bradley has played in 169. More than 50%.

How did you get that number Dos? Just 3 regular seasons is 82 x 3 = 246 games. That's not including playoffs which add another 15-20 games on top?

I have our team at 267 games over the past 3 years(seasons) including playoffs.. and Bradley playing in 69% of them (185 total).

That's not counting his first season where he played 31 games out of 91 possible games. If we include that season he's at 216 games out of 358 Celtics games. (keep in mind as a rookie he might not have seen the floor at all regardless of his injury).
Technically we can say he's played in 60% of possible games as a Celtic in 4 seasons and 69% of games in the last 3 seasons.

So yeah, you're right he's played a decent amount over half his games. Not sure the numbers change the situation- He still misses too many games and has not improved enough skill wise to garner 6 million a year, especially under this new NBA cap.

I got that number because I, apparently alone among some of my CB peers, remembered that we only played 81 games last year (last game against the Pacers was cancelled because of the Marathon bombing) and the lockout season of '11-'12 was 66 games.   

66+81+82 = 229.

I did forget to account for playoff games, though.


edit -- I should say that I would be hesitant to give Bradley more than 4 million a year, and I don't think I ever suggested anything different.